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Theory of Change (ToC) is a
methodology In its most common sense, methodology is the study of research methods. However, the term can also refer to the methods themselves or to the philosophical discussion of associated background assumptions. A method is a structured procedure for bri ...
or a criteria for planning,
participation Participation or Participant may refer to: Politics *Participation (decision making), mechanisms for people to participate in social decisions *Civic participation, engagement by the citizens in government *e-participation, citizen participation ...
,
adaptive management Adaptive management, also known as adaptive resource management or adaptive environmental assessment and management, is a structured, iterative process of robust decision making in the face of uncertainty, with an aim to reducing uncertainty over ...
, and
evaluation Evaluation is a systematic determination and assessment of a subject's merit, worth and significance, using criteria governed by a set of standards. It can assist an organization, program, design, project or any other intervention or initiative to ...
that is used in companies,
philanthropy Philanthropy is a form of altruism that consists of "private initiatives, for the Public good (economics), public good, focusing on quality of life". Philanthropy contrasts with business initiatives, which are private initiatives for private goo ...
,
not-for-profit A nonprofit organization (NPO) or non-profit organisation, also known as a non-business entity, not-for-profit organization, or nonprofit institution, is a legal entity organized and operated for a collective, public or social benefit, in co ...
, international development,
research Research is "creativity, creative and systematic work undertaken to increase the stock of knowledge". It involves the collection, organization and analysis of evidence to increase understanding of a topic, characterized by a particular att ...
, and
government A government is the system or group of people governing an organized community, generally a state. In the case of its broad associative definition, government normally consists of legislature, executive, and judiciary. Government is a ...
sectors to promote
social change Social change is the alteration of the social order of a society which may include changes in social institutions, social behaviours or social relations. Definition Social change may not refer to the notion of social progress or socio ...
. Theory of Change defines long-term goals and then maps backward to identify necessary preconditions. Theory of Change explains the process of change by outlining causal linkages in an initiative, i.e., its shorter-term, intermediate, and longer-term outcomes. The identified changes are mapped – as the "outcomes pathway" – showing each outcome in logical relationship to all the others, as well as chronological flow and feedback loops. The links between outcomes are explained by "rationales" or statements of why one outcome is thought to be a prerequisite for another. The innovation of Theory of Change lies (1) in making the distinction between desired and actual outcomes and (2) in requiring stakeholders to model their desired outcomes before they decide on forms of intervention to achieve those outcomes. Theory of Change can begin at any stage of an initiative, depending on the intended use. A Theory of Change developed at the outset is best at informing the planning of an initiative. Having worked out a change model, practitioners can make more informed decisions about
strategy Strategy (from Greek στρατηγία ''stratēgia'', "art of troop leader; office of general, command, generalship") is a general plan to achieve one or more long-term or overall goals under conditions of uncertainty. In the sense of the "art ...
and tactics. As monitoring and
evaluation Evaluation is a systematic determination and assessment of a subject's merit, worth and significance, using criteria governed by a set of standards. It can assist an organization, program, design, project or any other intervention or initiative to ...
data In the pursuit of knowledge, data (; ) is a collection of discrete values that convey information, describing quantity, quality, fact, statistics, other basic units of meaning, or simply sequences of symbols that may be further interpreted ...
become available, stakeholders can periodically refine the Theory of Change as the evidence indicates. A Theory of Change can be developed retrospectively by reading program documents, talking to stakeholders, and analyzing data. This is often done during evaluations reflecting what has worked or not in order to understand the past and plan for the future.


History


Origins

Theory of Change emerged from the field of program theory and
program evaluation Program evaluation is a systematic method for collecting, analyzing, and using information to answer questions about projects, policies and programs, particularly about their effectiveness and efficiency. In both the public and private sectors, s ...
in the mid 1990s as a new way of analyzing the theories motivating programs and initiatives working for social and political change. Its earlier origins can be traced to Peter Drucker's articulation of
Management by Objectives Management by objectives (MBO), also known as management by planning (MBP), was first popularized by Peter Drucker in his 1954 book ''The Practice of Management''.Drucker, P., ''The Practice of Management'', Harper, New York, 1954; Heinemann, London ...
, popularized in his 1954 book ''The Practice of Management.'' Management by Objectives requires identifying higher-order Goals, and lower-order Objectives which, if achieved, are expected to result in the Goals being achieved. Theory of Change extends beyond Goals (commonly named ''Outcomes'' in Theory of Change terminology) and Objectives to include Impact – the anticipated result of achieving stated goals. Theory of Change is focused not just on generating knowledge about whether a program is effective, but also on explaining what methods it uses to be effective. Theory of Change as a concept has strong roots in a number of disciplines, including
environmental A biophysical environment is a biotic and abiotic surrounding of an organism or population, and consequently includes the factors that have an influence in their survival, development, and evolution. A biophysical environment can vary in scale f ...
and
organizational psychology Industrial and organizational psychology (I-O psychology), an applied discipline within psychology, is the science of human behavior in the workplace. Depending on the country or region of the world, I-O psychology is also known as occupational ...
, but has also increasingly been connected to
sociology Sociology is a social science that focuses on society, human social behavior, patterns of Interpersonal ties, social relationships, social interaction, and aspects of culture associated with everyday life. It uses various methods of Empirical ...
and
political science Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and power, and the analysis of political activities, political thought, political behavior, and associated constitutions and la ...
. Within industrial-organizational psychology, Austin and Bartunek have noted that approaches to
organizational development Organization development (OD) is the study and implementation of practices, systems, and techniques that affect organizational change, the goal of which is to modify an organization's performance and/or culture. The organizational changes are ...
are frequently based on more or less explicit assumptions about 1) the processes through which organizations change, and 2) the interventions needed to effect change.


Development in evaluation practice

Within
evaluation Evaluation is a systematic determination and assessment of a subject's merit, worth and significance, using criteria governed by a set of standards. It can assist an organization, program, design, project or any other intervention or initiative to ...
practice, Theory of Change emerged in the 1990s at the Aspen Institute Roundtable on Community Change as a means to model and evaluate comprehensive community initiatives. Notable methodologists, such as Huey-Tsyh Chen, Peter Rossi,
Michael Quinn Patton Michael Quinn Patton (born 1945) is an independent organizational development and program evaluation consultant, and former president of the American Evaluation Association. He is the founder and director of Utilization-Focused Evaluation. After ...
, Heléne Clark, and
Carol Weiss Carol Hirschon Weiss was an American scholar of education and policy analysis. She was the Beatrice B. Whiting Professor of Education at the Harvard Graduate School of Education. She was one of the founders of the scientific study of social pr ...
, had been thinking about how to apply program theories to
evaluation Evaluation is a systematic determination and assessment of a subject's merit, worth and significance, using criteria governed by a set of standards. It can assist an organization, program, design, project or any other intervention or initiative to ...
since 1980. The Roundtable's early work focused on working through the challenges of evaluating complex community initiatives. This work culminated in a 1995 publication, ‘New Approaches to Evaluating Comprehensive Community Initiatives’. In that book, Carol Weiss, a member of the Roundtable's steering committee on evaluation, hypothesized that a key reason complex programs are so difficult to evaluate is that the assumptions that inspire them are poorly articulated. She argued that stakeholders of complex community initiatives typically are unclear about how the change process will unfold and therefore place little attention on the early and mid-term changes needed to reach a longer-term goal. Weiss popularized the term “Theory of Change” as a way to describe the set of assumptions that explain both the mini-steps that lead to the long-term goal of interest and the connections between program activities and outcomes that occur at each step of the way. She challenged designers of complex community-based initiatives to be specific about the theories of change guiding their work and suggested that doing so would improve their overall evaluation plans and would strengthen their ability to claim credit for outcomes that were predicted in their theory. She called for the use of an approach that, at first glance, seems like common sense: lay out the sequence of outcomes that are expected to occur as the result of an intervention, and plan an evaluation strategy around tracking whether these expected outcomes are actually produced. Her stature in the field, and the apparent promise of this idea, motivated a number of foundations to support the use of this technique—later termed “the Theory of Change approach”—in the evaluations of community change initiatives. In the years that followed, a number of evaluations were developed around this approach, fueling more interest in the field about its value and potential application. Between 2000 – 2002, the Aspen Roundtable for Community Change led the dissemination and case studies of the Theory of Change approach, although still mostly applied to the field of community initiatives. As the Aspen Roundtable concluded its leadership in the field and moved on to apply Theory of Change to such topics as
structural racism A structure is an arrangement and organization of interrelated elements in a material object or system, or the object or system so organized. Material structures include man-made objects such as buildings and machines and natural objects such as ...
, others expanded the visibility and application of Theory of Change into international development,
public health Public health is "the science and art of preventing disease, prolonging life and promoting health through the organized efforts and informed choices of society, organizations, public and private, communities and individuals". Analyzing the det ...
,
human rights Human rights are Morality, moral principles or Social norm, normsJames Nickel, with assistance from Thomas Pogge, M.B.E. Smith, and Leif Wenar, 13 December 2013, Stanford Encyclopedia of PhilosophyHuman Rights Retrieved 14 August 2014 for ce ...
and more. The visibility and knowledge of Theory of Change grew with the creation in 2002 of theoryofchange.org and later of Theory of Change Online software.


Growing popularity

Recent interest has burgeoned with some excellent reviews commissioned by
Comic Relief Comic relief is the inclusion of a humorous character, scene, or witty dialogue in an otherwise serious work, often to relieve tension. Definition Comic relief usually means a releasing of emotional or other tension resulting from a comic episo ...
in the UK, the
Department for International Development , type = Department , logo = DfID.svg , logo_width = 180px , logo_caption = , picture = File:Admiralty Screen (411824276).jpg , picture_width = 180px , picture_caption = Department for International Development (London office) (far right ...
in the UK,
the Asia Foundation The Asia Foundation is a nonprofit international development organization committed to "improving lives across a dynamic and developing Asia". The Asia Foundation (TAF) was established in 1954 to undertake cultural and educational activities on be ...
and
Oxfam Australia Oxfam Australia is an Australian, independent, not-for-profit, secular, community-based aid and development organization, and is an affiliate of the Oxfam International confederation. Oxfam Australia's work is divided into four broad categories co ...
to name a few. The explosion of knowledge of the term, and demand for "theories", led to the formation in 2013 of the first non-profit dedicated to promoting and clarifying standards for Theory of Change. The Center for Theory of Change houses a library, definitions, glossary and is licensed to offer Theory of Change Online by ActKnowledge free of charge. The use of Theory of Change in planning and evaluation has increased among philanthropies, government agencies, development organizations, universities, international
NGOs A non-governmental organization (NGO) or non-governmental organisation (see spelling differences) is an organization that generally is formed independent from government. They are typically nonprofit entities, and many of them are active in ...
, the UN, and many other major organizations in both developed and developing countries. This has led to new areas of work, such as linking the Theory of Change approach to systems thinking and complexity. Change processes are no longer seen as linear, but as having many feedback loops that need to be understood. Consequently, Theory of Change is strengthening monitoring,
evaluation Evaluation is a systematic determination and assessment of a subject's merit, worth and significance, using criteria governed by a set of standards. It can assist an organization, program, design, project or any other intervention or initiative to ...
and
learning Learning is the process of acquiring new understanding, knowledge, behaviors, skills, value (personal and cultural), values, attitudes, and preferences. The ability to learn is possessed by humans, animals, and some machine learning, machines ...
. They are also helping to understand and assess impact in hard to measure areas, such as
governance Governance is the process of interactions through the laws, social norm, norms, power (social and political), power or language of an organized society over a social system (family, tribe, formal organization, formal or informal organization, a ...
, capacity strengthening and institutional development. Innovations continue to emerge.


Challenges

Despite the growing ubiquity of Theory of Change, especially in the development arena, understanding of the approach and the methods necessary to implement it effectively are not uniform. In fact, there is evidence of some confusion about what the term ‘Theory of Change’ actually means; in some cases, what some program developers describe as a Theory of Change is, in essence, simply a log frame, strategic plan or another approach that does not encompass the complexity of the Theory of Change approach. There is also inconsistent use of other common Theory of Change terminology (e.g., outputs, outcomes, impacts, etc.), which confounds effective Theory of Change design, evaluation, and learning.


Methodology


Basic structure

A Theory of Change is a high order, or macro, If-Then statement: ''If'' this is done, ''Then'' these are the anticipated results. The outcomes pathway is a set of needed conditions relevant to a given field of action, which are placed diagrammatically in logical relationship to one another and connected with arrows that posit causality. Outcomes along the pathway are also preconditions to outcomes above them. Thus, early outcomes must be in place for intermediate outcomes to be achieved; intermediate outcomes must be in place for the next set of outcomes to be achieved; and so on. An outcomes pathway therefore represents the change logic and its underlying set of assumptions, which are spelled out in the rationales given for why specific connections exist between outcomes and in the theory narrative.


Quality control criteria

In the early days of Theory of Change, Anne Kubisch and others established three quality control criteria. These are: ; Plausibility :
Plausibility In sociology and especially the sociological study of religion, plausibility structures are the sociocultural contexts for systems of meaning within which these meanings make sense, or are made plausible. Beliefs and meanings held by individuals a ...
refers to the logic of the outcomes' pathway. Does it make sense? Are the outcomes in the right order? Are the preconditions each necessary and collectively sufficient to reach the long-term outcomes and ultimate impact? Are there gaps in the logic? ; Feasibility : Feasibility refers to whether the initiative can realistically achieve its long-term outcomes and impact. Does the organization have adequate resources? Does it need partners? Does the scope, expectations, or timeline of the theory need adjustment? ; Testability :
Testability Testability is a primary aspect of Science and the Scientific Method and is a property applying to an empirical hypothesis, involves two components: #Falsifiability or defeasibility, which means that counterexamples to the hypothesis are logicall ...
refers chiefly to the indicators: Are they solid and measurable? Will they yield sufficient information to evaluate the success of the initiative? Will they be convincing to necessary audiences? In addition to these three basic quality control criteria, ActKnowledge has added another key criterion: Appropriate Scope. An actionable theory that can be communicated to the key audiences is dependent in part upon choosing the right scope: broad enough to leave no gaps in the model, yet focused enough on the opportunities and resources at hand. Appropriate Scope also integrates the evaluation concept of “accountability”. Many Theory of Change outcome pathways include an “accountability ceiling,” often a dashed line drawn across the pathway that separates outcomes the organization will monitor and claim credit for attaining from higher-order outcomes that are beyond its power to achieve—e.g., “a just society.”


Applying the model

An important first step in the process is identifying a workable long-term goal and long-term outcomes. The long-term goal should be something the initiative can realistically achieve and that everyone involved understands. A trained external facilitator is best to lead the group to consensus and specificity in this process. Once a long-term goal is identified, the group then considers: “What conditions must be in place for us to reach the goal?” Any such necessary conditions should be shown as outcomes on the Theory of Change pathway, underneath the long-term outcome. These outcomes act as preconditions to the long-term outcome. The process of identifying preconditions continues, drilling down the pathway by posing fundamental questions such as: “What has to be in place for this outcome to be achieved?” and “Are these preconditions sufficient for the outcome to be achieved?” In these sessions, participants may use markers, sticky notes, and chart paper to identify and organize outcomes, surface assumptions, develop indicators, and so on. The messy group work is then usually captured by the facilitator in digital form, through which the content can be expanded, edited, printed, shared, and otherwise managed as the theory continues to be developed.


Measuring change

The ultimate success of any Theory of Change lies in its ability to demonstrate progress on the achievement of outcomes. Evidence of success confirms the theory and indicates that the initiative is effective. Therefore, the outcomes in a Theory of Change must be coupled with indicators that guide and facilitate measurement. Indicators may be said to operationalize the outcomes – that is, they make the outcomes understandable in concrete, observable and measurable terms. The relationship of indicator to outcome can be confusing and may be clarified with this simple formula: “I’ll know utcome reachedwhen I see ndicator” For example, “I’ll know that teenagers in the program understand the prenatal nutrition and health guidelines when I see program participants identifying foods that are good sources of nutrition.” A graduated set of indicators can be used to measure and assess the extent to which an outcome has been realized. Ideally, every outcome on the outcomes pathway (below the dashed accountability ceiling) should have an indicator, but available resources often make that difficult to do. Many groups want to designate priority outcomes – that is, outcomes they know they need to measure if the theory is going to hold. These are the outcomes that must be operationalized (that is, made measurable by one or more indicators.) At a minimum, every outcome for which initial interventions will be designed should have at least one indicator. Though indicators are valuable, it may be necessary to do more in-depth data collection and analyses to assess whether and how outcomes and assumptions have been realized.


Monitoring and evaluation

As the origins of Theory of Change lie in the field of monitoring and
evaluation Evaluation is a systematic determination and assessment of a subject's merit, worth and significance, using criteria governed by a set of standards. It can assist an organization, program, design, project or any other intervention or initiative to ...
, developments over the years have ensured that Theory of Change continues to be an invaluable method to conduct evaluations of many different types of projects and organizations. Often posing theory-based evaluation questions helps to focus evaluation efforts on key concerns. As well, there may be a need to pick the right indicators from among the many available, and one can use “monitoring questions” to select the indicators that will be most helpful. The monitoring questions take the form of “What do we really need to know in order to manage grant-making directed to the achievement of this outcome? It is important to understand success beyond just knowing “what works”. Experience has shown that blindly copying or scaling an intervention hardly ever works. An important task for monitoring and evaluation is to gather enough knowledge and understanding so as to be able to predict – with some degree of confidence – how an initiative and set of activities might work in a different situation, or how it needs to be adjusted to get similar or better results. We also need to be able to combine evidence from a number of studies in order to build a stronger picture of what is taking place, how it is unfolding, and, most importantly, how context influences the initiative. Just as development of a Theory of Change is a participatory process, a ToC-based monitoring and
evaluation Evaluation is a systematic determination and assessment of a subject's merit, worth and significance, using criteria governed by a set of standards. It can assist an organization, program, design, project or any other intervention or initiative to ...
system can be designed in a participatory way. For example, grant managers can be involved in choosing the outcomes of greatest interest to them in their decision-making. Similarly, people on the ground can have input into which indicators to use and how to operationalize them, choices of instruments and methods of data collection, and which existing sources of data may be used in tracking indicators.


Comparison with other models

Practitioners have developed
logic model Logic models are hypothesized descriptions of the chain of causes and effects leading to an outcome of interest (e.g. prevalence of cardiovascular diseases, annual traffic collision, etc). While they can be in a narrative form, logic model usual ...
s and logical frameworks as strategies and tools to plan and evaluate social change programs. While these models well articulate the goals and resources of an initiative or organization, they give less focus to the complex social, economic, political and institutional processes that underlie social and societal change. Thus, while logic models and logframes have developed an Implementation Theory behind their work, they can lack an underlying Theory of Change. Theory of Change also contrasts with logic models and logframes by beginning with a participatory process to clearly define desired outcomes and to air and challenge one another's assumptions. Theory of Change can support collective visioning, foster a shared understanding between stakeholders, and bridge thought-styles and different ways of knowing. Theory of Change begins by first working out program goals or desired impact and working backwards on outcome pathways, rather than engaging in conventional forward oriented “so-that” reasoning. As an example of "so-that" reasoning: a grantee decides to increase media coverage on the lack of health insurance among children ''so that'' public awareness increases ''so that'' policymakers increase their knowledge and interest ''so that'' policies change ''so that'' more children have health insurance. In Theory of Change, by contrast, the group begins not with its intervention but with its long-term goal and outcomes and then works backward (in time) toward the earliest changes that need to occur. Only when the pathway has been developed is it time to consider which interventions will best produce the outcomes in the pathway. Many organizations, including the
Rockefeller Foundation The Rockefeller Foundation is an American private foundation and philanthropic medical research and arts funding organization based at 420 Fifth Avenue, New York City. The second-oldest major philanthropic institution in America, after the Carneg ...
and the
United States Agency for International Development The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is an independent agency of the U.S. federal government that is primarily responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and development assistance. With a budget of over $27 bi ...
, have used a Results Framework and companion Scorecard as management tools. The Results Framework is complementary and adaptable to a Theory of Change-based monitoring and
evaluation Evaluation is a systematic determination and assessment of a subject's merit, worth and significance, using criteria governed by a set of standards. It can assist an organization, program, design, project or any other intervention or initiative to ...
system. The framework gives the appearance of being derived from a well-thought-out conceptual model, even if the conceptual model is lacking. The limitations of the Results Frameworks is that they do not show causal connections between conditions that need to change in order to meet the ultimate goals. The added value of Theory of Change lies in revealing the conceptual model, including the causal relationships between and among outcomes, the relationships of activities to outcomes, and of outcomes to indicators. Overall, having a Theory of Change helps make explicit the assumptions upon which the Results Framework is based.


Applications

ToC in International Development State agencies * U. K.
Department for International Development , type = Department , logo = DfID.svg , logo_width = 180px , logo_caption = , picture = File:Admiralty Screen (411824276).jpg , picture_width = 180px , picture_caption = Department for International Development (London office) (far right ...
* U. S.
USAID The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is an independent agency of the U.S. federal government that is primarily responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and development assistance. With a budget of over $27 bi ...
*
AusAid Australian Aid is the brand name used to identify projects in developing countries supported by the Australian Government. As of 2014 the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) has been responsible for Australia's official development ...
* Irish Aid American foundations *
Rockefeller Foundation The Rockefeller Foundation is an American private foundation and philanthropic medical research and arts funding organization based at 420 Fifth Avenue, New York City. The second-oldest major philanthropic institution in America, after the Carneg ...
*
Ford Foundation The Ford Foundation is an American private foundation with the stated goal of advancing human welfare. Created in 1936 by Edsel Ford and his father Henry Ford, it was originally funded by a US$25,000 gift from Edsel Ford. By 1947, after the death ...
Non-government organizations * U. N. Development Program *
World Bank The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans and grants to the governments of low- and middle-income countries for the purpose of pursuing capital projects. The World Bank is the collective name for the Interna ...
*
Inter-American Development Bank The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB or IADB) is an international financial institution headquartered in Washington, D.C., United States of America, and serving as the largest source of development financing for Latin America and the Caribb ...
*
World Vision In its most general sense, the term "world" refers to the totality of entities, to the whole of reality or to everything that is. The nature of the world has been conceptualized differently in different fields. Some conceptions see the worl ...
*
The Hunger Project The Hunger Project (THP), founded in 1977 with the stated goal of ending world hunger in 25 years, is an organization committed to the sustainable end of world hunger. It has ongoing programs in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where it implemen ...
* CARE *
Amnesty International Amnesty International (also referred to as Amnesty or AI) is an international non-governmental organization focused on human rights, with its headquarters in the United Kingdom. The organization says it has more than ten million members and sup ...
*
Canadian Feed the Children Canadian Feed The Children is a Canadian charity, based in Toronto, Ontario. It is a secular non-governmental organization (NGO), working in international development, and partners with community-based groups working to alleviate poverty in devel ...
*
Women for Women International Women for Women International (WfWI) is a nonprofit humanitarian organization that provides practical and moral support to female survivors of war. WfWI helps such women rebuild their lives after war's devastation through a year-long tiered progra ...
*
Oxfam Oxfam is a British-founded confederation of 21 independent charitable organizations focusing on the alleviation of global poverty, founded in 1942 and led by Oxfam International. History Founded at 17 Broad Street, Oxford, as the Oxford Co ...
*
Greenpeace Greenpeace is an independent global campaigning network, founded in Canada in 1971 by Irving Stowe and Dorothy Stowe, immigrant environmental activists from the United States. Greenpeace states its goal is to "ensure the ability of the Earth t ...
* Alliance for Financial Inclusion * California Endowment Research organizations and programs *
CGIAR CGIAR (formerly the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) is a global partnership that unites international organizations engaged in research about food security. CGIAR research aims to reduce rural poverty, increase food ...

Sustainability Research Effectiveness Program
ToC in Climate Organizations * The Climate Center ToC in community schools (U. S.) * Children's Aid Society * Communities in Schools (Va.) * Netter Center for Community Partnerships (Philadelphia) * Cincinnati Community Learning Centers * Hartford (Conn.) Community Schools * Paterson (N. J.) Community Schools * United Federation of Teachers (New York City) * Beacon Schools (New York City) ToC in philanthropy * Annie E. Casey Foundation *
Kellogg Foundation The W. K. Kellogg Foundation was founded in June 1930 as the W. K. Kellogg Child Welfare Foundation by breakfast cereal pioneer Will Keith Kellogg. In 1934, Kellogg donated more than $66 million in Kellogg Company stock and other investments t ...
* Lumina Foundation for Education


Application in Research Planning, Adaptive Management, and Evaluation

Theory of Change (ToC) is a multi-purpose tool that can be applied for the purpose of planning, managing, monitoring, and evaluating research, especially change-oriented research (e.g., research-for-development, transdisciplinary research,
sustainability science Sustainability science first emerged in the 1980s and has become a new academic discipline Similar to agricultural science or health science, it is an applied science defined by the practical problems it addresses. Sustainability science focuse ...
). As in other applications, a research ToC describes the causal relationships between a research project or program and its intended results (i.e., outputs, outcomes, and impacts), framed as a set of testable hypotheses about how and why research contributes to change. ToC for research planning and design As an ex ante planning tool, Theory of Change can make research design and implementation more realistic and relevant by facilitating critical reflection on the role of research in a change process. It can also make research more participatory, by identifying and engaging key stakeholders of the research, and enabling co-ownership of the research process and the research results (e.g., findings). Theory of Change can accompany or be embedded within a research proposal. ToC for adaptive management of research As a monitoring tool, a Theory of Change helps identify useful indicators to assess progress and can facilitate adaptive management. It does this by stimulating learning about what strategies work in the specific research context, and where additional attention and resources need to be directed in order to achieve intended outcomes. This can inform adjustments to planned research activities, and also take advantage of unexpected opportunities by giving users a framework to determine whether an opportunity does or does not align with the purpose and objectives of the research project or program. ToC for research evaluation Theory of Change serves as the main analytical framework in theory-based research evaluation. A Theory of Change also helps identify what data are necessary to test whether the change happened as hypothesized. As an ex post evaluation tool, evaluators can assess the actual achievements of research projects or programs against expected outcomes, increasing research transparency and accountability to results.


Innovations

New horizons of theory of change There are two areas of work that, although not coordinated with Theory of Change, offer much to think about in making Theory of Change more focused and effective: 1. The Annie E. Casey Foundation proposes mapping an organization's social change work along three criteria: Impact, Influence, Leverage. * The impact of your work is its program outcomes * Your influence is how much other actors change as a result of your work * Your leverage is how much investment others put into your model. To date, Theory of Change has not distinguished impact, influence, and leverage as types of outcomes, but it may be useful to do so as a way of focusing the Theory of Change on measurable achievements. Particularly, when using Theory of Change to guide monitoring and evaluation, the Casey rubric helps focus the group's attention on outcomes, which could, if achieved, be convincingly attributed to the group's work. Other than direct program-related outcomes (impact), the Theory would anticipate outcomes in influence and outcomes in leverage. This approach could thereby help to avoid mapping outcomes involving broad shifts in behavior and values among whole populations, which are easy to think about, but are very difficult to monitor and to attribute to any one program. 2. Another refinement, which directly addresses this problem of attribution, comes from
Outcome mapping Outcome mapping is a project progress measurement system that was designed by the grant-making organisation International Development Research Centre (IDRC). It differs from traditional metrics in that it does not focus on measuring deliverables a ...
. This process distinguishes changes in state from changes in behavior, changes in “state” being just those broad shifts in economic conditions, policy, politics, institutional behavior, and so on, among whole populations (e.g., cities, regions, countries, industries, economic sectors, etc.). Measuring changes in state can exceed the capacity of any one actor's monitoring capabilities. Governments collect data on changes in state but, of course, the data may not be calibrated to measure the kinds of change anticipated in any one Theory of Change. Changes in state are also, as stated above, difficult to attribute to any one source. In contrast, changes in behavior are much easier to monitor, and more easily related to a group's own work. The Outcomes Mapping focus on changes in behavior would tend to direct a Theory of Change toward outcomes like this, which are outcomes the change agent cares most about and which it can relatively easily monitor and evaluate. There would be proportionately less attention to outcomes such as “every child is within five minutes walk of a playground” or “residents are healthy”. Such “changes in state” are more difficult to monitor and to attribute with certainty. Theory of change and ‘being strategic' Does Theory of Change frustrate or complement strategic thinking? This is an ongoing and important discussion, especially as there is an increasing emphasis on and demand for strategy as grounded, flexible, and opportunity-driven. Some perspectives understand ToC as a fixed model that gets in the way of effective work and useful evaluation. However, Patrizi notes that ToC is only at odds with strategic behavior if an organization treats their ToC like any other fixed plan. As Patrizi writes: “Once assumptions n a theory of changeare laid out, 1) foundations don't actually test those assumptions, and 2) they don't see using the model as a continuous process. It is, like, ‘Well, we did our ToC and now we are done’. If the change model is instead treated as something to adjust as organizations learn what works from experience in the field, then the theory should not be at odds with strategic behavior. If strategy is about seizing opportunities and trying out what works, the Theory of Change model serves as a guiding frame of reference. A list is not a model; a list does not push practitioners to consider the goals as part of a systematic model of change, or to think critically—strategically—about how best to attain the outcomes along the pathway. Limitations and function of a linear model Given that things don't happen in a straight-line sequence – as things impact each other in multiple, partly unpredictable ways, with all kinds of feedback loops that aren't modeled in a top-down diagramming format – an important question is: How adequate is the linear Theory of Change model as a description of what's going to happen? One answer to the question is that Theory of Change does not, in fact, model how things happen; rather, it models how we believe things will happen. Theory of Change is a forecast that shows what conditions we believe must exist for other conditions to come into being. As it is forward looking and logical, Theory of Change reflects the way we think logically –that is, if a, then b—and chronologically—first this, then that. The linear format is therefore appropriate. It can be helpful to complement Theory of Change with a process model that shows how the Theory of Change fits into a larger, more cyclical scheme in which theory leads to action, which leads to monitoring and evaluation, which leads to adjustment of the theory, which leads to the next action, more monitoring and evaluation, and so on. Such a process model depicts the linear theory as a conceptual driver of change, which must, to remain useful, be accompanied not only by taking action but also by evaluation and recalibration. Getting ‘buy-in’ from senior leadership It is important to remember that it is often a high-level person who has endorsed and initiated the Theory of Change process as something of value, so they have “bought in” at the beginning. The challenge that emerges is, therefore, how to sustain their support while letting others develop the theory. This is similar to many other issues that come up in matters of hierarchy and delegation: effective leaders delegate and trust their teams to carry out the work. There are many variations on the model but usually it involves good measures of delegation and, conversely, of reporting back to get the leader's thinking as the work progresses. It is necessary to come to high-level people having laid out your best thinking: don't go to them without something concrete to which they can respond, but don't wait until everything is perfect, either.


See also

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Logic model Logic models are hypothesized descriptions of the chain of causes and effects leading to an outcome of interest (e.g. prevalence of cardiovascular diseases, annual traffic collision, etc). While they can be in a narrative form, logic model usual ...
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Backcasting Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present. The fundamentals of the method were outlined by John B. ...
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Critical theory A critical theory is any approach to social philosophy that focuses on society and culture to reveal, critique and challenge power structures. With roots in sociology and literary criticism, it argues that social problems stem more from soci ...
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Scenario planning Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and gener ...
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Thought experiment A thought experiment is a hypothetical situation in which a hypothesis, theory, or principle is laid out for the purpose of thinking through its consequences. History The ancient Greek ''deiknymi'' (), or thought experiment, "was the most anc ...


References


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