Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland
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Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) is an annual estimate of the level of public revenue raised in Scotland and the level of public spending for the residents of Scotland under current constitutional arrangements. It was first published in 1992, and yearly since 1995, with the exceptions of 2007 where there was no report due to a methodology review, and 2016 where there were two annual reports due to an acceleration of publishing timescale. Since
devolution Devolution is the statutory delegation of powers from the central government of a sovereign state to govern at a subnational level, such as a regional or local level. It is a form of administrative decentralization. Devolved territories h ...
, it has been compiled by economists and statisticians in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser of the Scottish Government. The report is based partly on actual spend and income. Where actual data is not readily available, estimates for Scotland are made by the compilers e.g. Whitehall reserves 74% of Scotland's revenue and 37% of its spending; the data for the estimates are from a variety of sources including pan UK data provided by the
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's
Office for National Statistics The Office for National Statistics (ONS; cy, Swyddfa Ystadegau Gwladol) is the executive office of the UK Statistics Authority, a non-ministerial department which reports directly to the UK Parliament. Overview The ONS is responsible for th ...
(ONS). ONS in England and Wales co-ordinates data collection with the respective bodies in Northern Ireland and Scotland, namely NISRA and
National Records of Scotland National Records of Scotland ( gd, Clàran Nàiseanta na h-Alba) is a non-ministerial department of the Scottish Government. It is responsible for Civil registry, civil registration, the census in Scotland, demography and statistics, family histor ...
. GERS is designated as a National Statistics product, which means that it is produced independently of Scottish Ministers and has been assessed by the
UK Statistics Authority cy, Y Bwrdd Ystadegau , seal = , logo = UK Statistics Authority logo.svg , formed = , jurisdiction = United Kingdom , headquarters = 1 Drummond Gate London SW1V 2QQ , employees = 3685 , budget = £256m (2018) , minister1_name = Jeremy ...
as being produced in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics


Background

GERS was first published in 1992 by the
Scottish Office The Scottish Office was a department of the Government of the United Kingdom from 1885 until 1999, exercising a wide range of government functions in relation to Scotland under the control of the Secretary of State for Scotland. Following the e ...
in Edinburgh under the
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government of
Prime Minister A prime minister, premier or chief of cabinet is the head of the cabinet and the leader of the ministers in the executive branch of government, often in a parliamentary or semi-presidential system. Under those systems, a prime minister is not ...
John Major, by Ian Lang the Secretary of State for Scotland at a time when the government was resisting calls for
Scottish devolution Devolution is the process in which the central British parliament grants administrative powers (excluding principally reserved matters) to the devolved Scottish Parliament. Prior to the advent of devolution, some had argued for a Scottish Parl ...
. Its overall purpose was to estimate the overall UK borrowing requirement for Scotland - it was created at this time because Scottish Office ministers thought due to then-low oil prices, the report would show Scotland gained far more from the
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than it received. In a leaked memo the then
Secretary of State for Scotland The secretary of state for Scotland ( gd, Rùnaire Stàite na h-Alba; sco, Secretar o State fir Scotland), also referred to as the Scottish secretary, is a Secretary of State (United Kingdom), secretary of state in the Government of the Unit ...
Ian Lang Ian Bruce Lang, Baron Lang of Monkton, PC DL (born 27 June 1940) is a British Conservative Party politician and Life Peer who served as the Member of Parliament for Galloway, and then Galloway and Upper Nithsdale, from 1979 to 1997. On 29 Sep ...
wrote "I judge that
ERS ERS, Ers or ers may refer to: Arts and entertainment * Egyptian Ratscrew or Slap, a card game * Elevator Repair Service, an American theater ensemble Economics and finance * ERS10, a share index of the Serbian Banja Luka Stock Exchange * Eco ...
is just what is needed at present in our campaign to maintain the initiative and undermine the other parties. This initiative could score against all of them.” The methodology of this first report was questioned - economics professor Hervey Gibson recalled "My reaction, both emotional and professional, was that where Scotland was making disproportionate drawings on the National (UK) exchequer these had usually been carefully estimated and emphasised, and where it was making net or disproportionate contributions to the exchequer these had been assumed away or hidden under crude assumptions about ‘reflecting national averages’". The second report was published in November 1995, covering financial year 1993-1994. Reports for each financial year since this year have been published. In 1998, the
University of Strathclyde The University of Strathclyde ( gd, Oilthigh Shrath Chluaidh) is a public research university located in Glasgow, Scotland. Founded in 1796 as the Andersonian Institute, it is Glasgow's second-oldest university, having received its royal chart ...
published the Jim and Margaret Cuthbert-authored "A critique of GERS: government expenditure and revenue in Scotland." This criticised primarily the adequacy of the methodology used and the accuracy of data sources as well as the purpose of a GERS exercise. In 1999, GERS (for financial year 1997/1998) was published by the newly formed Scottish Executive for the first time. In 2008 GERS for 2006/7 was published, including data for 2005/2006 (there was no report in 2007). This was the first fundamental review of GERS since it achieved National Statistics status in 2005, the changes were also instigated under the new SNP government who wished to address the criticisms noted above and were supported by the Cuthberts in their changes. A number of presentation, data source and methodology changes were made. None of the changes radically altered the results of the analysis of Scotland's fiscal balance. The Cuthberts welcomed the "significant" methodological improvements, though noting scope for further improvements in overall Scottish financial reporting (not related to GERS itself).


The report


Objective

The authors of GERS's stated primary objective is to estimate a set of public sector accounts for Scotland through detailed analysis of official UK and Scottish Government finance statistics. The authors estimate the contribution of revenue raised in Scotland toward the goods and services provided for the benefit of the people of Scotland."


Data sources

The 2015-16 GERS report states: * The source of the revenue data in GERS is the ONS's Public Sector Finances, which provides disaggregated figures relating to UK public sector revenue. * The primary data sources used to estimate Scottish public sector expenditure in GERS are
HM Treasury His Majesty's Treasury (HM Treasury), occasionally referred to as the Exchequer, or more informally the Treasury, is a department of His Majesty's Government responsible for developing and executing the government's public finance policy and ec ...
's
Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses {{short description, Public finance programme of the United Kingdom Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses (PESA) is a programme of HM Treasury in the United Kingdom. It serves two purposes: 1) providing information on government spending plans ...
and the supporting Country and Regional Analysis (CRA). * GERS also makes use of the estimates of Scottish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in current market prices published in the Quarterly National Accounts Scotland (QNAS). * All estimates for Scotland made within GERS are conducted by the Scottish Government, the UK government do not estimate for Scotland nor are they involved in agreeing the data to be used by the Scottish Government.


Compilation

GERS is compiled by statisticians and economists in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser of the Scottish Government, with the Scottish Government's chief statistician taking overall responsibility for the publication.


Political use and criticism

GERS has frequently formed part of the debate on
Scottish Independence Scottish independence ( gd, Neo-eisimeileachd na h-Alba; sco, Scots unthirldom) is the idea of Scotland as a sovereign state, independent from the United Kingdom, and refers to the political movement that is campaigning to bring it about. S ...
.


GERS and the 2014 Scottish independence referendum

In November 2013, GERS figures from the most recent available report (financial year 2011/2012) were included within
Scotland's Future ''Scotland's Future'' is a government white paper published on 26 November 2013 by the Scottish Government under First Minister Alex Salmond. It lays out the case for Scottish independence and the means through which Scotland would become an in ...
, the Scottish Government's independence white paper. Based on the GERS report it was stated that, compared to the UK, Scotland: contributed more tax per head; had stronger public finances; and had much higher GDP per head Based on the methodologies used, falling oil revenues resulted in the final GERS report before the referendum, published in March 2014, indicating a weaker Scottish economic position than previous years. The nominal Scottish deficit went from 5% in financial year 2011/2012 to 8.3% in 2012/2013. However, methodology was still an issue - in May 2014
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in the
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sought input to GERS credibility from James Ferguson of The MacroStrategy Partnership. Ferguson referred to the notes to the GERS numbers which say that, save for a few local revenues, "separate identification of most other revenues for Scotland is not possible. GERS, therefore, uses a number of different methodologies to apportion tax revenues to Scotland. In doing so, there are often theoretical and practical challenges in determining an appropriate share to allocate to Scotland. In certain cases, a variety of alternative methodologies could be applied each leading to different estimates." It is, said Ferguson, a "pretty blatant case of starting with the answer and working out the more granular line-by-line 'estimates' backwards." Webb added, "No economic figures are entirely accurate but this is different: the basic revenue numbers are more or less guesswork, to which is added an so far entirely un-negotiated share of UK oil revenues. So there you go. I’m giving you one less thing to think about: you can now happily ignore all the financial arguments for a separate Scotland on the basis that no one knows what they actually are." In March 2017 Somerset Webb stated on Twitter that the article "was wrong" but didn't elaborate on how.


Criticisms of GERS

Graeme Roy of the
Fraser of Allander Institute The Fraser of Allander Institute, abbreviated to FAI, is an independent research unit and part of the Department of Economics at the University of Strathclyde. It specialises in researching the Scottish economy. The FAI covers a number of prima ...
acknowledged shortcomings of GERS but said regarding the use of estimation "But even significant differences in estimation – and well outside that which could be considered statistically reasonable – don’t change the overall headline figures". He concluded that of the topics worth debating "questioning the integrity and robustness of National Statistics is not one of them".
Deloitte Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (), commonly referred to as Deloitte, is an international professional services network headquartered in London, England. Deloitte is the largest professional services network by revenue and number of profession ...
said of GERS figures in 2017 referring to the impact on Scotland of a recent global slump in oil prices, "Commentators suggested that, under these conditions, Scotland would struggle to operate as an independent country. However, GERS data is produced for Scotland as part of the UK - it does not model scenarios for an independent Scotland in which the Scottish government would be enabled to make its own fiscal choices". Richard Murphy criticised the reliability of the data sources used for GERS. He also remarked they were liable to manipulation by the London-based UK Government. Murphy also supported the Deloitte view by stating, "nothing will be the same if Scotland leaves: a government of an independent Scotland will have a very different structure to that imposed now." It should be noted however that at a subsequent appearance before the Holyrood, Finance and Constitution Committee, Murphy was criticised for being unable to justify these claims.


See also

*
Barnett formula The Barnett formula is a mechanism used by the Treasury in the United Kingdom to automatically adjust the amounts of public expenditure allocated to Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales to reflect changes in spending levels allocated to public se ...
*
Cabinet Secretary for Finance, Employment and Sustainable Growth The Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Economy, commonly referred to as the Finance Secretary, is a member of the Cabinet in the Scottish Government. The Cabinet Secretary has Ministerial responsibility for the Scottish Government's Finance D ...
*
Commission on Scottish Devolution The Commission on Scottish Devolution ( gd, Coimisean Fèin-riaghlaidh na h-Alba, sco, Commeessioun on Scots Devolutioun), also referred to as the Calman Commission or the Scottish Parliament Commission or Review, was established by an oppositi ...
*
Fiscal autonomy for Scotland Full fiscal autonomy (FFA) – also known as devolution max,McLeish reiterate ...
*
Local income tax (Scotland) Several political parties have advocated a local income tax in Scotland as an alternative to the Council Tax, as part of funding for local authorities. Various proposals were promoted during the 2007 general election campaign. Proposals In 2004 ...
*
McCrone report The McCrone report is a document on the Scottish economy written and researched in 1974 on behalf of the British Government. It was composed by Professor Gavin McCrone employed at the Scottish Office using some information that was publicly ava ...
*
Public Accounts Committee of the Scottish Parliament In public relations and communication science, publics are groups of individual people, and the public (a.k.a. the general public) is the totality of such groupings. This is a different concept to the sociological concept of the ''Öffentlichkei ...
* Public Contracts Scotland * Scottish budget *
Scottish Consolidated Fund The Scottish Consolidated Fund is the main fund operated by the Scottish Parliament. It receives a block grant from the UK Parliament's Consolidated Fund plus the operational receipts of the Scottish Government. The fund operates under the Scotl ...
*
Scottish Variable Rate The Scottish variable rate (SVR) was a mechanism which would have enabled the Scottish Government to vary (down or up) the basic rate of UK income tax by up to 3p in the pound. The power was never used (and indeed was allowed to lapse by the Scott ...
*
Scotland Bill 2011 The Scotland Act 2012 is an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. It sets out amendments to the Scotland Act 1998, with the aim of devolving further powers to Scotland in accordance with the recommendations of the Calman Commission. It ...
*
Taxation in Scotland Taxation in Scotland today involves payments that are required to be made to three different levels of government: to the UK government, to the Scottish Government and to local government. Currently 32.4% of taxation collected in Scotland is in th ...
*
Union dividend The Union dividend is a term used by British unionists to describe the financial benefits which they believe that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland derive from being parts of the United Kingdom. Politicians who argue for the existence of a U ...


References


External links


Official website
at the Scottish Government {{Economy of Scotland Fiscal federalism Reports of the Scottish Government Public finance of Scotland