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A population decline (sometimes underpopulation or depopulation or population collapse) in
human Humans (''Homo sapiens'') are the most abundant and widespread species In biology Biology is the natural science that studies life and living organisms, including their anatomy, physical structure, Biochemistry, chemical processes ...

human
s is a reduction in a human population size. Over the long term, stretching from
prehistory Prehistory, also known as pre-literary history, is the period of human history Human history, or world history, is the narrative of Human, humanity's past. It is understood through archaeology, anthropology, genetics, and linguistics, ...
to the present, Earth's total human population has continued to grow; however, current projections suggest that this long-term trend of steady population growth may be coming to an end. Until the beginning of the
industrial revolution The Industrial Revolution was the transition to new manufacturing processes in Great Britain, continental Europe Continental Europe or mainland Europe is the contiguous continent A continent is any of several large landmasse ...
, global population grew very slowly. After about 1800 the growth rate accelerated to a peak of 2.09% annually in both 1967-68 and 1968-69, but since then, due to the worldwide collapse of the total fertility rate, it has declined to 1.05% as of 2020. The global growth rate in absolute numbers accelerated to a peak of 92.9 million in 1988, but has declined to 81.3 million in 2020. Long-term projections indicate that the growth rate of the human population of this planet will continue to decline, and that by the end of the 21st century, it will reach
zero 0 (zero) is a number A number is a mathematical object used to counting, count, measurement, measure, and nominal number, label. The original examples are the natural numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and so forth. Numbers can be represented in languag ...
. Examples of this emerging trend are Japan, whose population is currently (2015–2020) declining at the rate of 0.2% per year, and
China China (), officially the People's Republic of China (PRC; ), is a country in . It is the world's , with a of more than 1.4 billion. China spans five geographical and 14 different countries, the in the world after . Covering an area of ap ...
, whose population could start declining in 2027 or sooner. By 2050, Europe's population is projected to be declining at the rate of 0.3% per year. Population growth has declined mainly due to the abrupt decline in the global total fertility rate, from 5.0 in 1960 to 2.3 in 2020. The decline in the total fertility rate has occurred in every region of the world and is a result of a process known as
demographic transition In demography Demography (from prefix ''demo-'' from Ancient Greek δῆμος (''dēmos'') meaning 'the people', and ''-graphy'' from γράφω (''graphō'') meaning 'writing, description or measurement') is the statistics, statistical s ...
. In order to maintain its population, ignoring migration, a country requires a minimum fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman (the number is slightly greater than 2 because not all children live to adulthood). However, almost all societies experience a drastic drop in fertility to well below 2 as they grow more wealthy (see
income and fertility Income and fertility is the Association (statistics), association between monetary gain on one hand, and the tendency to produce offspring on the other. There is generally an inverse correlation between income and the fertility rate, total fertilit ...
). The tendency of women in wealthier countries to have fewer children is attributed to a variety of reasons, such as lower
infant mortality Infant mortality is the death of young children under the age of 1. This death toll is measured by the infant mortality rate (IMR), which is the probability of deaths of children under one year of age per 1000 live births. The under-five mortalit ...

infant mortality
and a reduced need for children as a source of family labor or retirement welfare, both of which reduce the incentive to have many children. Better access to education for young women, which broadens their job prospects, is also often cited. Possible consequences of long-term national population decline can be net positive or negative. If a country can increase its
workforce The workforce or labour force is the labour Labour or labor may refer to: * Childbirth Childbirth, also known as labour or delivery, is the ending of pregnancy where one or more babies leaves the uterus by passing through the vagina or b ...
productivity Productivity is the efficiency Efficiency is the (often measurable) ability to avoid wasting materials, energy, efforts, money, and time in doing something or in producing a desired result. In a more general sense, it is the ability to do th ...
faster than its population is declining, the results, in terms of its economy, the quality of life of its citizens, and the environment, can be net positive. If it cannot increase workforce productivity faster than its population's decline, the results can be mostly negative. National efforts to confront a declining population to date have been focused on the possible negative economic consequences and have been centered around increasing the size and productivity of the workforce.


Causes

A reduction over time in a region's population can be caused by sudden adverse events such as outbursts of infectious
disease A disease is a particular abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure A structure is an arrangement and organization of interrelated elements in a material object or system A system is a group of Interaction, interactin ...
,
famine A famine is a widespread scarcity of food Food is any substance consumed to provide nutritional support for an organism In biology, an organism (from Ancient Greek, Greek: ὀργανισμός, ''organismos'') is any individual con ...

famine
, and
war War is an intense armed conflict between states State may refer to: Arts, entertainment, and media Literature * ''State Magazine'', a monthly magazine published by the U.S. Department of State * The State (newspaper), ''The State'' (new ...

war
or by long-term trends, for example
sub-replacement fertility Sub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate (TFR) that (if sustained) leads to each new generation A generation is "all of the people born and living Living or The Living may refer to: Common meanings *Life, a condition that disti ...
, persistently low
birth rates The crude birth rate (CBR) in a period is the total number of live births per 1,000 population divided by the length of the period in years. The number of live births is normally taken from a universal registration system for births; population ...
, high
mortality rates Mortality rate, or death rate, is a measure of the number of deaths (in general, or due to a specific cause) in a particular Statistical population, population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time. Mortality rate is typically e ...
, and continued
emigration Emigration is the act of leaving a resident country or place of residence with the intent to settle elsewhere (to permanently leave a country). Conversely, immigration Immigration is the international movement of people to a destination ...
.


Short term population shocks

Historical episodes of short-term human population decline have been common and have been caused by several factors. * high death rates caused by
disease A disease is a particular abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure A structure is an arrangement and organization of interrelated elements in a material object or system A system is a group of Interaction, interactin ...
, for example the
Black Death The Black Death (also known as the Pestilence, the Great Mortality or the Plague) was a bubonic plague Bubonic plague is one of three types of plague caused by the plague bacterium Bacteria (; common noun bacteria, singular bact ...

Black Death
that devastated Europe in the 14th and 17th centuries, the arrival of Old World diseases in the Americas during European colonization, and the
Spanish flu Spanish flu, also known as the Great Influenza epidemic or the 1918 influenza pandemic, was an exceptionally deadly global influenza pandemic An influenza pandemic is an epidemic An epidemic (from Ancient Greek, Greek ἐπί ''epi'' ...
pandemic after World War I, *
famine A famine is a widespread scarcity of food Food is any substance consumed to provide nutritional support for an organism In biology, an organism (from Ancient Greek, Greek: ὀργανισμός, ''organismos'') is any individual con ...

famine
, for example the
Great Irish Famine The Great Famine ( ga, an Gorta Mór ), also known as the Great Hunger, the Famine (mostly within Ireland) or the Irish Potato Famine (mostly outside Ireland), was a period of mass starvation and disease A disease is a particular abn ...
of the 19th century, and the
Great Chinese Famine The Great Chinese Famine (, "three years of great famine") was a period between 1959 and 1961 in the history of the People's Republic of China The History of the People's Republic of China details the history of mainland China Mainland ...
caused by the
Great Leap Forward The Great Leap Forward (Second Five Year Plan) of the People's Republic of China China (), officially the People's Republic of China (PRC; ), is a country in East Asia. It is the world's List of countries and dependencies by population, mo ...
which caused tens of millions of deaths *
war War is an intense armed conflict between states State may refer to: Arts, entertainment, and media Literature * ''State Magazine'', a monthly magazine published by the U.S. Department of State * The State (newspaper), ''The State'' (new ...

war
, for example, the
Mongol invasion of Europe The Mongol invasion of Europe in the 13th century occurred from the 1220s into the 1240s. In Eastern Europe, the Mongol Empire, Mongols conquered Volga Bulgaria, Cumania, Alania, and the Kievan Rus', Kievan Rus' federation. In Central Europe, t ...
in the 13th century that may have reduced the population of Hungary by 20–40%, * civil unrest, for example the forced migration of the population of Syria because of the Syrian Civil War Less frequently, short term population declines are caused by
genocide Genocide is the attempted destruction of a people, usually defined as an ethnic An ethnic group or ethnicity is a grouping of people who identity (social science), identify with each other on the basis of shared attributes that distinguish t ...
or mass
execution Capital punishment, also known as the death penalty, is the state State may refer to: Arts, entertainment, and media Literature * ''State Magazine'', a monthly magazine published by the U.S. Department of State * The State (newspaper), '' ...

execution
. For example, it has been estimated that the
Armenian genocide The Armenian Genocide (Terminology of the Armenian Genocide, other names) was the systematic mass murder and ethnic cleansing of around 1 million ethnic Armenians from Asia Minor and adjoining regions by the Ottoman Empire and its ruling ...

Armenian genocide
caused 1.5 million deaths, the
Jewish Holocaust The Holocaust, also known as the Shoah, was the genocide Genocide is the intentional action to destroy a people—usually defined as an ethnic, national, racial, or religious Religion is a social system, social-cultural system ...
about 6 million, and, in the 1970s, the population of
Cambodia Cambodia (; also Kampuchea ; km, កម្ពុជា, ), officially the Kingdom of Cambodia, is a country located in the southern portion of the Indochinese peninsula in Southeast Asia. It is in area, bordered by Thailand to Cambodia–T ...

Cambodia
declined because of wide-scale executions by the Khmer Rouge. In modern times, the
AIDS Human immunodeficiency virus infection and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is a spectrum of conditions caused by infection An infection is the invasion of an organism's body by , their multiplication, and the reaction of ...
pandemic A pandemic (from Greek#REDIRECT Greek Greek may refer to: Greece Anything of, from, or related to Greece Greece ( el, Ελλάδα, , ), officially the Hellenic Republic, is a country located in Southeast Europe. Its population is approx ...

pandemic
caused temporary declines in the population of some African countries, and the on-going
COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing global pandemic A pandemic (from , , "all" and , , "local people" the 'crowd') is an of an that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple or worldwide, affecting a substantial numbe ...

COVID-19 pandemic
has caused short-term drops in fertility and significant excess mortality in a number of countries. Some population declines result from indeterminate causes, for example, the
Bronze Age Collapse The Late Bronze Age collapse was a transition period in a large area covering much of Southeast Europe, West Asia and North Africa North Africa is a region encompassing the northern portion of the African continent. There is no singularly ac ...
, which has been described as the worst disaster in ancient history.


Long term historic trends in world population growth

In spite of these short-term population shocks, world population has continued to grow. From around 10,000 BC to the beginning of the
Early Modern Period The early modern period of modern history Human history, or world history, is the narrative of Human, humanity's past. It is understood through archaeology, anthropology, genetics, and linguistics, and since the History of writing, adve ...
(generally 1500 – 1800),
world population In demography, demographics, the world population is the total number of humans currently living, and was estimated to have exceeded 7.9 billion people . It took over 2 million years of prehistory, human prehistory and human history, history fo ...
grew very slowly, around 0.04% per year.  During that period, population growth was governed by conditions now labeled the “
Malthusian Trap Malthusianism is the idea that population growth is potentially exponential while the growth of the food supply Food security is a measure of the availability of food and individuals' Economic inequality, ability to access it. According the Comm ...
”. After 1700, driven by increases in human productivity due to the
Industrial Revolution The Industrial Revolution was the transition to new manufacturing processes in Great Britain, continental Europe Continental Europe or mainland Europe is the contiguous continent A continent is any of several large landmasse ...
, particularly the increase in
agricultural productivity Agricultural productivity is measured as the ratio of agricultural Agriculture is the practice of cultivating plants and livestock. Agriculture was the key development in the rise of sedentary Image:Family watching television 1958.jpg, ...
,
population growth Population growth is the increase in the number of people in a population Population typically refers the number of people in a single area whether it be a city or town, region, country, or the world. Governments typically quantify the size ...
accelerated to around 0.6% per year, a rate that was over ten times the rate of population growth of the previous 12,000 years. This rapid increase in global population caused Malthus and others to raise the first concerns about
overpopulation Overpopulation or overabundance occurs when a species' population In biology, a population is a number of all the organisms of the same group or species In biology, a species is the basic unit of biological classification, classifica ...
. After World War I birth rates in the United States and many European countries fell below replacement level. This prompted concern about population decline. The recovery of the birth rate in most western countries around 1940 that produced the “baby boom”, with annual growth rates in the 1.0 – 1.5% range, and which peaked in 1968 at 2.1% per year, temporarily dispelled prior concerns about population decline, and the world was once again fearful of
overpopulation Overpopulation or overabundance occurs when a species' population In biology, a population is a number of all the organisms of the same group or species In biology, a species is the basic unit of biological classification, classifica ...
. But after 1968 the global population growth rate started a long decline, and in the period 2015–2020 it is estimated to be about 1.1%, half of its peak in 1968. Although still growing, global population is predicted to level out around the end of the 21st century, and some sources predict the start of a decline before then.  The principal cause of this phenomenon is the abrupt decline in the global total fertility rate, from 5.0 in 1960 to 2.3 in 2020. The decline in the total fertility rate has occurred in every region of the world and has brought renewed concern from some for population decline. The era of rapid global population increase, and concomitant concern about a population explosion, has been short compared with the span of human history. It began roughly at the beginning of the industrial revolution and appears to be now drawing to a close in the
Western world The Western world, also known as the West, refers to various regions, nations and state (polity), states, depending on the context, most often consisting of the majority of Europe, Northern America, and Australasia.
.


Possible consequences

Predictions of the ''net'' economic (and other) effects from a slow and continuous population decline (e.g. due to low fertility rates) are mainly theoretical since such a phenomenon is a relatively new and unprecedented one. The results of many of these studies show that the estimated impact of population growth on economic growth is generally small and can be positive, negative, or nonexistent. A recent meta-study found no relationship between population growth and economic growth.


Possible positive effects

The effects of a declining population can be positive. The single best gauge of economic success is the growth of GDP per person, not total GDP. GDP per person (also known as GDP per capita or per capita GDP) is a rough proxy for average living standards. A country can both increase its average living standard and grow total GDP even though its population growth is low or even negative. The economies of both
Japan Japan ( ja, 日本, or , and formally ) is an island country An island country or an island nation is a country A country is a distinct territory, territorial body or political entity. It is often referred to as the land of an in ...

Japan
and
Germany ) , image_map = , map_caption = , map_width = 250px , capital = Berlin Berlin (; ) is the Capital city, capital and List of cities in Germany by population, largest city of Germany by both area and population. Its 3,769,495 inh ...

Germany
went into recovery around the time their populations began to decline (2003–2006). In other words, both the total and per capita GDP in both countries grew more rapidly after 2005 than before.
Russia Russia ( rus, link=no, Россия, Rossiya, ), or the Russian Federation, is a country spanning Eastern Europe Eastern Europe is the eastern region of . There is no consistent definition of the precise area it covers, partly because th ...

Russia
's economy also began to grow rapidly from 1999 onward, even though its population had been shrinking since 1992–93. Many Eastern European countries have been experiencing similar effects to Russia. Such renewed growth calls into question the conventional wisdom that economic growth requires population growth, or that economic growth is impossible during a population decline. More recently (2009–2017) Japan has experienced a higher growth of GDP per capita than the United States, even though its population declined over that period. In the United States, the relationship between population growth and growth of GDP per capita has been found to be empirically insignificant. All of this is further proof that individual prosperity can grow during periods of population decline. Attempting to better understand the economic impact of these pluses and minuses, Lee et al. analyzed data from 40 countries. They found that typically fertility well above replacement and population growth would be most beneficial for government budgets. Fertility near replacement and population stability, however, would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. Fertility moderately below replacement and population decline would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. A focus on productivity growth that leads to an increase in both per capita GDP and total GDP can bring other
benefits Benefit or benefits may refer to: Perks and social welfare * Benefit (social welfare), provided by a social welfare program ** Federal benefits, provided by the United States federal government * Credit card#Benefits and drawbacks, Credit card, an ...
to: *the workforce through higher wages, benefits and better working conditions *customers through lower prices *owners and shareholders through higher profits *the environment through more money for investment in more stringent environmental protection *governments through higher tax proceeds to fund government activities Another approach to possible positive effects of population decline is to consider Earth's carrying capacity. The human
carrying capacity The carrying capacity of an Natural environment, environment is the maximum population size of a biological species that can be sustained by that specific environment, given the food, habitat, Drinking water, water, and other resources available. T ...
of the Earth has been estimated to be 500 million, 1 billion or up to 12 billion. According to these studies, the human carrying capacity has already been exceeded or would be exceeded by the year 2100, therefore a global population decline would counteract the negative effects of
human overpopulation Human overpopulation (or human population overshoot) is the concept of a human population becoming too large to be sustainability, sustained by its environment or resources in the long term. The idea is usually discussed in the context of world ...
.


Possible negative effects

The effects of a declining population can also be negative. As a country's population declines, GDP growth may grow even more slowly or may even decline.  If the decline in total population is not matched by an equal or greater increase in productivity (GDP/capita), and if that condition continues from one calendar quarter to the next, it follows that a country would experience a decline in GDP, known as an
economic recession In economics Economics () is the social science that studies how people interact with value; in particular, the Production (economics), production, distribution (economics), distribution, and Consumption (economics), consumption of goods ...
.  If these conditions become permanent, the country could find itself in a permanent recession. Other possible negative impacts of a declining population are: * A rise in the
dependency ratio The dependency ratio is an age-population ratio of those typically not in the labor force (the ''dependent'' part ages 0 to 14 and 65+) and those typically in the labor force (the ''productive'' part ages 15 to 64). It is used to measure the pressur ...
which would increase the economic pressure on the workforce * A crisis in end of life care for the elderly because there are insufficient caregivers for them * Difficulties in funding entitlement programs because there are fewer workers relative to retirees * A decline in military strength * A decline in innovation since change comes from the young * A strain on mental health caused by permanent recession * Deflation caused by the ageing population All these negative effects could be summarized under the heading of “Underpopulation”.  Underpopulation is usually defined as a state in which a country's population has declined too much to support its current economic system. Population decline can cause internal population pressures that then lead to secondary effects such as ethnic conflict, forced refugee flows, and hyper-nationalism. This is particularly true in regions where different ethnic or racial groups have different growth rates. An example of this is white nationalism. White nationalists seek to ensure the survival of the white race, and the cultures of historically white nations. Many white nationalists
believe Believe may refer to: *Belief, a psychological state in which an individual holds a proposition or premise to be true, with or without proof for such proposition *Faith, a belief in something which has not been proven Arts, entertainment, and med ...

believe
that white people should therefore maintain a demographic majority and that
mass immigration Immigration is the international movement of people to a destination country A country is a distinct territorial body or political entity A polity is an identifiable political entity—any group of people who have a collective ident ...
of non-whites and low birth rates among whites are threatening the white race. Low fertility rates that cause long-term population decline can also lead to
population ageing Population ageing is an increasing median age A population pyramid or "age-sex pyramid" is a graphical illustration of the distribution of a population In biology, a population is a number of all the organisms of the same group or species ...
, an imbalance in the population age structure. Population ageing in Europe due to low fertility rates has given rise to concerns about its impact on social cohesion. A smaller national population can also have geo-strategic effects, but the correlation between population and
power Power most often refers to: * Power (physics) In physics, power is the amount of energy In , energy is the that must be to a or to perform on the body, or to it. Energy is a ; the law of states that energy can be in form, bu ...
is a tenuous one. Technology and resources often play more significant roles. Since
World War II World War II or the Second World War, often abbreviated as WWII or WW2, was a global war A world war is "a war War is an intense armed conflict between states State may refer to: Arts, entertainment, and media Literatur ...
, the "static" theory saw a population's absolute size as being one of the components of a country's national power. More recently, the "human capital" theory has emerged. This view holds that the quality and skill level of a labor force and the technology and resources available to it are more important than simply a nation's population size. While there were in the past advantages to high fertility rates, that "
demographic dividend Demographic dividend, as defined by the United Nations Population Fund The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), formerly the United Nations Fund for Population Activities, is a UN agency aimed at improving reproductive and maternal health ...
" has now largely disappeared.


Contemporary decline by country

The table below shows the countries that have been affected by population decline between 2010 and 2020. The term "population" used here is based on the ''de facto'' definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship, except for refugees not permanently settled in the country of asylum, who are generally considered part of the population of the country of origin. This means that population growth in this table includes net changes from immigration and emigration. For a table of natural population changes, see
list of countries by natural increase This article contains a list of countries by rate of natural increase. Methodology The rate of natural increase is defined as the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate. It is expressed as a rate per 1,000 population. Countries and sub ...
. Figure includes
Abkhazia Abkhazia, , ka, აფხაზეთი, , rus, Абха́зия, r=Abkhaziya, p=ɐˈpxazʲɪjə xmf, აბჟუა, or , ( or ) is a partially recognized state in the South Caucasus Transcaucasia, also known as the South Caucasus, ...

Abkhazia
and South
Ossetia and South Ossetia when they were part of the Soviet Union Ossetia (; os, Ир, Ирыстон, Ir, Iryston; russian: Осетия, Osetiya; ka, ოსეთი, Romanization of Georgian, translit. ''Oseti'') is an Ethnolinguistics , ethnoling ...

Ossetia
.
Includes the
Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic Transnistria, officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), is a breakaway state in the narrow strip of land between the river Dniester and the Ukrainian border that is internationally recognized as part of Moldova Moldova ...

Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic
.
Aftermaths of
Hurricane Maria Hurricane Maria was a deadly Category 5 hurricane that devastated Dominica Dominica ( or ; Kalinago language: ; french: Dominique; Dominican Creole French: ''Dominik''), officially the Commonwealth of Dominica, is an island country in ...

Hurricane Maria
caused an extreme surge in the traditional migration flows to the
U.S. mainland The contiguous United States or officially the conterminous United States, also known as the Lower 48, consists of the 48 adjoining U.S. state In the United States The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as ...
.
Syrian civil war#REDIRECT Syrian civil war The Syrian civil war ( ar, الْحَرْبُ الْأَهْلِيَّةُ السُّورِيَّةُ, ''al-ḥarb al-ʾahlīyah as-sūrīyah'') is an ongoing multi-sided civil war in Syria fought between the Syrian Ara ...

Syrian civil war
that caused high civilian deaths and a massive refugee crisis.
General socio-economic collapse following the
War in Donbas The war in Donbas, or the Donbas war, is an armed conflict in the Donbas The Donbas or Donbass (, ; uk, Донба́с ; russian: Донба́сс) is a historical, cultural, and economic region in south-eastern Ukraine Ukr ...
.
General socio-economic collapse caused by the ongoing political
crisis A crisis (plural: "crises"; adjectival form In linguistics Linguistics is the science, scientific study of language. It encompasses the analysis of every aspect of language, as well as the methods for studying and modeling them. Th ...
.


East Asia


Japan

Though Japan's natural increase turned negative as early as 2005, the 2010 census result figure was slightly higher, at just above 128 million, than the 2005 census. Factors implicated in the puzzling figures were more Japanese returnees than expected as well as changes in the methodology of data collection. However, the official count put the population as of October 1, 2015, at 127.1 million, down by 947,000 or 0.7% from the previous quinquennial census. The gender ratio is increasingly skewed; some 106 women per 100 men live in Japan. In 2019, Japan's population fell by a record-breaking 276,000; if immigration is excluded from the figures, the drop would have been 487,000. Given the population boom of the 1950s and 1960s, the total population is still 52% above 1950 levels.


South Korea

South Korea South Korea, officially the Republic of Korea (ROK), is a country in East Asia, constituting the southern part of the Korea, Korean Peninsula and sharing a Korean Demilitarized Zone, land border with North Korea. Its western border is for ...

South Korea
's total fertility rate has been consistently lower than that of Japan, breaking below 1 in 2018, and fell to 0.84 in 2020. As a result, its population fell in 2020 for the first time in the country's history.


Taiwan

Taiwan Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), is a country in East Asia East Asia is the eastern region of Asia Asia () is Earth's largest and most populous continent, located primarily in the Eastern Hemisphere, Eastern and N ...

Taiwan
recorded more deaths than births in first quarter of 2021, despite recording virtually no , likely to continue as long term demographic trend.


Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics

Population in the ex-USSR and
Eastern Europe Eastern Europe is the eastern region of Europe Europe is a continent A continent is any of several large landmasses. Generally identified by convention (norm), convention rather than any strict criteria, up to seven geographical reg ...

Eastern Europe
is rapidly shrinking due to low birth rates, very high death rates (linked to
alcoholism Alcoholism is, broadly, any drinking of alcohol In , alcohol is an that carries at least one (−OH) bound to a atom. The term alcohol originally referred to the primary alcohol (ethyl alcohol), which is and is the main alcoho ...
and high rates of infectious diseases such as
AIDS Human immunodeficiency virus infection and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is a spectrum of conditions caused by infection An infection is the invasion of an organism's body by , their multiplication, and the reaction of ...
and ), as well as high emigration rates. In Russia and the former communist bloc, after the fall of the Soviet Union, and death rates generally rose sharply. In addition, in the 25 years after 1989, some 20 million people from Eastern Europe are estimated to have migrated to Western Europe or the United States.


Armenia

Armenia's population peaked at 3,604,000 in 1991 and declined to 3,010,600 in the January 2015 state statistical estimate. This represents a 19.7% decrease in total population since the peak census figure.


Belarus

Belarus's population peaked at 10,151,806 in 1989 Census, and declined to 9,480,868 as of 2015 as estimated by the state statistical service. This represents a 7.1% decline since the peak census figure.


Estonia

In the last Soviet census of 1989, it had a population of 1,565,662, which was close to its peak population. The state statistics reported an estimate of 1,314,370 for 2016. This represents a 19.2% decline since the peak census figure.


Georgia

In the last Soviet census of 1989, it had a population of 5,400,841, which was close to its peak population. The state statistics reported an estimate of 4,010,000 for 2014 Census, which includes estimated numbers for quasi-independent
Abkhazia Abkhazia, , ka, აფხაზეთი, , rus, Абха́зия, r=Abkhaziya, p=ɐˈpxazʲɪjə xmf, აბჟუა, or , ( or ) is a partially recognized state in the South Caucasus Transcaucasia, also known as the South Caucasus, ...

Abkhazia
and
South Ossetia South Ossetia (, less commonly ), officially the Republic of South Ossetia – the State of Alania, or the Tskhinvali Region, is a ''de facto'' state in the South Caucasus. It has an officially stated population of just over 53,000 people, who ...
. This represents a 25.7% decline since the peak census figure, but nevertheless somewhat higher than the 1950 population.


Latvia

When Latvia split from the Soviet Union, it had a population of 2,666,567, which was very close to its peak population. The latest census recorded a population of 2,067,887 in 2011, while the state statistics reported an estimate of 1,986,086 for 2015. This represents a 25.5% decline since the peak census figure, only one of two nations worldwide falling below 1950 levels. The decline is caused by both a negative natural population growth (more deaths than births) and a negative
net migration rate Net or net may refer to: Mathematics and physics * Net (mathematics) In mathematics Mathematics (from Greek: ) includes the study of such topics as numbers ( and ), formulas and related structures (), shapes and spaces in which they ...

net migration rate
.


Lithuania

When Lithuania split from the Soviet Union, it had a population of 3.7 million, which was close to its peak population. The latest census recorded a population of 3.05 million in 2011, down from 3.4 million in 2001, further falling to 2,988,000 on September 1, 2012. This represents a 23.8% decline since the peak census figure, and some 13.7% since 2001.


Ukraine

Ukraine census in 1989 resulted in 51,452,034 people. Ukraine's own estimates show a peak of 52,244,000 people in 1993; however, this number has plummeted to 45,439,822 as of December 1, 2013. Having lost Crimean territory to Russia in early 2014 and subsequently experienced war, the population dropped to 42,981,850 as of August 2014. This represents a 19.7% decrease in total population since the peak figure, but 16.8% above the 1950 population even without Crimea. Its absolute total decline (9,263,000) since its peak population is the highest of all nations; this includes loss of territory and heavy net emigration. Eastern Ukraine may yet lose many Russian-speaking citizens due to new Russian citizenship law.


Hungary

Hungary's population peaked in 1980, at 10,709,000, and has continued its decline to under 10 million as of August 2010. This represents a decline of 7.1% since its peak; however, compared to neighbors situated to the East, Hungary peaked almost a decade earlier yet the rate has been far more modest, averaging −0.23% a year over the period.


Balkans


Albania

Albania's population in 1989 recorded 3,182,417 people, the largest for any census. Since then, its population declined to an estimated 2,893,005 in January 2015. This represents a decrease of 10% in total population since the peak census figure.


Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina's population peaked at 4,377,033 in the 1991 Census, shortly before the
Yugoslav wars The Yugoslav Wars were a series of separate but related Naimark (2003), p. xvii. ethnic conflict A refugee camp for displaced Rwandans in Zaire following the Rwandan genocide of 1994 An ethnic conflict is a conflict between two or more con ...
that produced tens of thousands of civilian victims and refugees. The latest census of 2016 reported a population of 3,511,372. This represents a 19.8% decline since the peak census figure.


Bulgaria

Bulgaria's population declined from a peak of 9,009,018 in 1989 and since 2001, has lost yet another 600,000 people, according to 2011 census preliminary figures to no more than 7.3 million, further down to 7,245,000. This represents a 24.3% decrease in total population since the peak, and a −0.82% annual rate in the last 10 years.


Croatia

Croatia's population declined from 4,784,265 in 1991 to 4,456,096 (by old statistical method) of which 4,284,889 are permanent residents (by new statistical method), in 2011, a decline of 8% (11.5% by the new definition of permanent residency in 2011 census). The main reasons for the decline since 1991 are: low birth rates, emigration and war in Croatia. From 2001 and 2011 main reason for the drop in population is due to a difference in definition of permanent residency used in censuses till 2001 (censuses of 1948, 1953, 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001) and the one used in 2011.Croatian Bureau of Statistic
Notes on methodology (Census 2011)
accessed 7 July 2013


Greece

Greece's population declined by about half a million people between its 2021 and 2011 census. The main drivers are increased emigration rates and lower birth rates following the 2007-2008 financial crisis.


Romania

Romania's 1991 census showed 23,185,084 people, and the October 2011 census recorded 20,121,641 people, while the state statistical estimate for 2014 is 19,947,311. This represents a decrease of 16.2% since the historical peak in 1991.


Serbia

Serbia recorded a peak census population of 7,576,837 in 1991 in the Yugoslav era, falling to 7,186,862 in the 2011 census. That represents a decline of 5.1% since its peak census figure.


Resumed declines

Countries whose population declines halted temporarily, but have since resumed:


Russia

The decline in Russia's total population is among the largest in numbers, but not in percentage. After having peaked at 148,689,000 in 1991, the population then decreased, falling to 142,737,196 by 2008. This represents a 4.0% decrease in total population since the peak census figure. However, since then the Russian population has risen to 146,870,000 in 2018. This recent trend can be attributed to a lower death rate, higher birth rate, the annexation of Crimea and continued immigration, mostly from Ukraine and Armenia. It is some 40% above the 1950 population.


Spain

Spanish population fell by over 100 thousand in 2020, likely to continue as long term demographics trend.


Italy

Italian population fell by a record amount in 2020, likely to continue as long term demographics trend.


Halted declines


Germany

In Germany a decades-long tendency to population decline has been offset by waves of immigration. The 2011 national census recorded a population of 80.2 million people. At the end of 2012 it had risen to 82 million according to federal estimates. This represents about 14% increase over 1950.


Ireland

In the current area of the
Republic of Ireland Ireland ( ga, Éire ), also known as the Republic of Ireland ('), is a country A country is a distinct territorial body or political entity A polity is an identifiable political entity—any group of people who have a collective id ...

Republic of Ireland
, the population has fluctuated dramatically. The population of Ireland was 8 million in 1841, but it dropped due to the
Irish famine The Great Famine ( ga, an Gorta Mór ), also known as the Great Hunger, the Famine (mostly within Ireland) or the Irish Potato Famine (mostly outside Ireland), was a period of mass starvation Starvation is a severe deficiency in caloric en ...
and later emigration. The population of the Republic of Ireland hit a bottom at 2.8 million in the 1961 census, but it then rose and in 2011 it was 4.58 million. As of 2020 it is estimated to be just under 5 million according to the country's Central Statistics Office


Declines within regions or ethnic groups of a country


United States

In spite of a growing population at a national level, some formerly large American municipalities have dramatically shrunk after the
Second World War World War II or the Second World War, often abbreviated as WWII or WW2, was a global war A world war is "a war War is an intense armed conflict between states State may refer to: Arts, entertainment, and media Literatur ...
, and in particular during the 1950s–1970s, due to
suburbanization pattern in the US Suburbanization is a population shift from central urban area An urban area, or built-up area, is a human settlement with a high population density and infrastructure of built environment. Urban areas are created through ...
,
urban decay Urban decay (also known as urban rot, urban death and urban blight) is the sociological process by which a previously functioning city A city is a large human settlement.Goodall, B. (1987) ''The Penguin Dictionary of Human Geography''. Londo ...
,
race riots An ethnic conflict is a conflict between two or more contending ethnic group An ethnic group or ethnicity is a grouping of people A people is any plurality of person A person (plural people or persons) is a being that has certain ...
, high crime rates, deindustrialization and emigration from the
Rust Belt The Rust Belt is a region of the Northeastern The points of the compass are the Euclidean vector, vectors by which planet-based directions are conventionally defined. A compass rose is primarily composed of four cardinal directions—north, e ...
to the
Sun Belt The Sun Belt is a region of the United States The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country Continental United States, primarily located in North America. It consi ...
. For instance,
Detroit (strait A strait is a naturally formed, narrowing, typically navigable waterway that connects two larger bodies of water. The surface water generally flows at the same elevation on both sides and through the strait in either direction. Mo ...

Detroit
's population peaked at almost 2 million in 1953, then declined to less than 700,000 by 2020. Other cities whose populations have dramatically shrunk since the 1950s include
Baltimore Baltimore ( , locally: ) is the most populous city The United Nations uses three definitions for what constitutes a city, as not all cities in all jurisdictions are classified using the same criteria. Cities may be defined as the city prop ...

Baltimore
, ,
Cincinnati Cincinnati ( ) is a city in the U.S. state In the , a state is a , of which there are currently 50. Bound together in a , each state holds al jurisdiction over a separate and defined geographic territory where it shares its with the ...

Cincinnati
,
Cleveland Cleveland ( ), officially the City of Cleveland, is a city in the U.S. The United States of America (USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US), or America, is a country primarily located in North America North ...

Cleveland
,
Flint Flint is a sedimentary Sedimentary rocks are types of rock (geology), rock that are formed by the accumulation or deposition of mineral or organic matter, organic particles at Earth#Surface, Earth's surface, followed by cementation (geology ...
, Gary,
New Orleans New Orleans (,New Orleans
,
St. Louis St. Louis () is the second-largest city in Missouri Missouri is a state State may refer to: Arts, entertainment, and media Literature * ''State Magazine'', a monthly magazine published by the U.S. Department of State * The State ( ...

St. Louis
,
Pittsburgh Pittsburgh ( ) is a city in the Commonwealth (U.S. state), Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in the United States and the county seat of Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, Allegheny County. A population of 302,971 residents lives within the city limit ...

Pittsburgh
,
Scranton Scranton is the sixth-largest city in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. It is the county seat A county seat is an administrative center, seat of government, or capital city of a county or Parish (administrative division), civil parish. The term ...

Scranton
,
Youngstown Youngstown is a city in the U.S. state In the United States The United States of America (USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US), or America, is a country Contiguous United States, primarily located in North America ...
, Wilmington (Delaware). In addition, the depopulation of the Great Plains, caused by a very high rate of
rural flight Rural flight (or rural exodus) is the migratory pattern Animal migration is the relatively long-distance movement of individual animals, usually on a seasonal basis. It is the most common form of Migration (ecology), migration in ecology. It i ...

rural flight
from isolated agricultural counties, has been going on since the 1930s. In addition, starting from the 1950s the United States have witnessed the phenomenon of the
white flight White flight or white exodus is the sudden or gradual large-scale migration of white people White is a of people and a specifier, generally used for people of origin; although the definition can vary depending on context, nationality, ...
or white exodus, the large-scale migration of people of various European ancestries from racially mixed urban regions to more racially homogeneous
suburb A suburb (or suburban area or suburbia) is a commercial Commercial may refer to: * a dose of advertising conveyed through media (such as - for example - radio or television) ** Radio advertisement ** Television advertisement * (adjective ...
an or
exurban An exurb (alternately: exurban area) is an area outside the typically denser inner suburban area File:Husby Kista.jpg, The Swedish suburbs of Husby/Kista/Akalla are built according to the typical city planning of the Million Programme. A s ...
regions. The term has more recently been applied to other migrations by
whites White is a racialized classification of people and a skin color Afghan children with fair skin Human skin color ranges from the darkest brown to the lightest hues. Differences in skin color among individuals is caused by variation in p ...
, from older, inner suburbs to rural areas, as well as from the U.S.
Northeast The points of the compass are an evenly spaced set of horizontal directions (or azimuth An azimuth (; from ar, اَلسُّمُوت, as-sumūt, the directions) is an angular measurement In Euclidean geometry Euclidean geometry is a ma ...
and
Midwest The Midwestern United States, also referred to as the Midwest or the American Midwest, is one of four Census Bureau Region, census regions of the United States Census Bureau (also known as "Region 2"). It occupies the northern central part of ...
to the warmer climate in the
Southeast The points of the compass are an evenly spaced set of horizontal directions (or azimuth An azimuth (; from ar, اَلسُّمُوت, as-sumūt, the directions) is an angular measurement In Euclidean geometry Euclidean geometry is a ma ...
and
Southwest The points of the compass are an evenly spaced set of horizontal directions (or azimuth An azimuth (; from ar, اَلسُّمُوت, as-sumūt, the directions) is an angular measurement In Euclidean geometry Euclidean geometry is a ma ...
. Migration of middle-class white populations was observed during the
Civil rights movement The 1954–1968 civil rights movement in the United States The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country Continental United States, primarily located in North ...
in the 1950s and 1960s out of cities such as
Cleveland Cleveland ( ), officially the City of Cleveland, is a city in the U.S. The United States of America (USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US), or America, is a country primarily located in North America North ...

Cleveland
,
Detroit (strait A strait is a naturally formed, narrowing, typically navigable waterway that connects two larger bodies of water. The surface water generally flows at the same elevation on both sides and through the strait in either direction. Mo ...

Detroit
,
Kansas City The Kansas City metropolitan area is a bi-state metropolitan area A metropolitan area or metro is a region consisting of a densely populated urban core Urban means "related to a city". In that sense, the term may refer to: * Urban area ...

Kansas City
and
Oakland Oakland is the largest city and the county seat A county seat is an administrative centerAn administrative centre is a seat of regional administration or local government, or a county town, or the place where the central administration of a ...

Oakland
, although racial segregation of public schools had ended there long before the
Supreme Court of the United States The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States of America The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or Americ ...

Supreme Court of the United States
' decision ''
Brown v. Board of Education ''Brown v. Board of Education of Topeka'', 347 U.S. 483 (1954), was a landmark A landmark is a recognizable natural or artificial feature used for navigation Navigation is a field of study that focuses on the process of monitoring and con ...
'' in 1954. In the 1970s, attempts to achieve effective
desegregation Desegregation is the process of ending the separation of two groups, usually referring to races. Desegregation is typically measured by the index of dissimilarity, allowing researchers to determine whether desegregation efforts are having impact o ...
(or "integration") by means of forced
busing Race-integration busing in the United States (also known as simply busing or by its critics as forced busing) was the practice of assigning and transporting students to schools within or outside their local school districts in an effort to diversi ...
in some areas led to more families' moving out of former areas. More recently, as of 2018,
California California is a state State may refer to: Arts, entertainment, and media Literature * ''State Magazine'', a monthly magazine published by the U.S. Department of State * The State (newspaper), ''The State'' (newspaper), a daily newspaper i ...

California
had the largest ethnic/racial minority population in the United States;
Non-Hispanic whites Non-Hispanic Whites (also referred to as Anglo-Americans)Mish, Frederic C., Editor in Chief ''Webster's Tenth New Collegiate Dictionary'' Springfield, Massachusetts, U.S.A.:1994--Merriam-Webster See original definition (definition #1) of ''Anglo'' ...
decreased from about 76.3 – 78% of the state's population in 1970 to 36.6%% in 2018 and 39.3% of the total population was Hispanic-Latino (of any race). A combination of long term trends, housing affordability, and falling birthrates and rising death rates from the COVID-19 pandemic have caused as many as 16 US states to start declining in population.


South Africa

The term 'white flight' has also been used for large-scale
post-colonial Postcolonialism is the critical academic study of the cultural legacy of colonialism Colonialism is a practice or policy of control by one people or power over other people or areas, often by establishing colony, colonies and generally with the a ...
emigration of whites from Africa, or parts of that continent, driven by levels of violent crime and anti-colonial state policies. In recent decades, there has been a steady proportional decline in
South Africa South Africa, officially the Republic of South Africa (RSA), is the southernmost country in Africa. With over 60 million people, it is the world's 23rd-most populous nation and covers an area of . South Africa has three capital citie ...

South Africa
's white community, due to higher birth rates among other South African ethnic groups, as well as a high rate of emigration. In 1977, there were 4.3 million
White South Africans White South Africans ( af, Blankes/Europeërs) refers to South Africans of primarily Demographics of Europe, European descent. In Natural language, linguistic, cultural, and historical terms, they are generally divided into the Afrikaans-speaki ...
, constituting 16.4% of the population at the time. An estimated 800,000 emigrated between 1995 and 2016, citing
crime In ordinary language, a crime is an unlawful act punishable by a state State may refer to: Arts, entertainment, and media Literature * ''State Magazine'', a monthly magazine published by the U.S. Department of State * The State (newspaper ...
and a lack of employment opportunities.


India

The
Parsis Parsis () or Parsees ( in the Persian language Persian (), also known by its endonym An endonym (from Greek Greek may refer to: Greece Anything of, from, or related to Greece Greece ( el, Ελλάδα, , ), officially the He ...
of India have one of the lowest fertility rates in the world (0.8 children per woman in 2017); this coupled with emigration has resulted in population decline at least since the 1940s. Their population has more than halved from the peak.


National efforts to confront declining populations

A country with a declining population will struggle to fund public services such as health care, old age benefits, defense, education, water and sewage infrastructure, etc. In order to maintain some level of economic growth and continue to improve its citizens’ quality of life, national efforts to confront declining populations will tend to focus on the threat of a declining GDP.  Because a country's GDP is dependent on the size and productivity of its workforce, a country confronted with a declining population, will focus on increasing the size and productivity of that workforce.


Increase the size of the workforce

A country's
workforce The workforce or labour force is the labour Labour or labor may refer to: * Childbirth Childbirth, also known as labour or delivery, is the ending of pregnancy where one or more babies leaves the uterus by passing through the vagina or b ...
is that segment of its working age population that is employed.  Working age population is generally defined as those people aged 15–64. Policies that could increase the size of the workforce include: * Natalism
Natalism Natalism (also called pronatalism or the pro-birth position) is a belief that promotes the reproduction Reproduction (or procreation or breeding) is the biological process Biological processes are those processes that are vital for an org ...
is a set of government policies and cultural changes that promote parenthood and encourage women to bear more children. These generally fall into three broad categories: # Financial incentives.  These may include child benefits and other public transfers that help families cover the cost of children. # Support for parents to combine family and work. This includes maternity-leave policies, parental-leave policies that grant (by law) leaves of absence from work to care for their children, and childcare services. # Broad social change that encourages children and parenting For example, Sweden built up an extensive
welfare state The welfare state is a form of government in which the state (or a well-established network of social institutions) protects and promotes the economic and social well-being of its citizens, based upon the principles of equal opportunity Equal o ...
from the 1930s and onward, partly as a consequence of the debate following
Crisis in the Population Question ''Crisis in the Population Question'' ( sv, Kris i befolkningsfrågan) was a 1934 book by Alva and Gunnar Myrdal Karl Gunnar Myrdal ( ; ; 6 December 1898 – 17 May 1987) was a Swedish economist An economist is a practitioner in the social ...
, published in 1934. Today, (2017) Sweden has extensive parental leave that allows parents to share 16 months paid leave per child, the cost divided between both employer and State. Other examples include Romania's natalist policy during the 1967–90 period and Poland's 500+ program. * Encourage more women to join the workforce.  Encouraging those women in the working age population who are not working to find jobs would increase the size of the workforce. Female Women in the workforce, participation in the workforce currently (2018) lags men's in all but three countries worldwide. Among developed countries the workforce participation gap between men and women can be especially wide.  For example, currently (2018), in South Korea 59% of women work compared with 79% of men. However, even assuming that more women would want to join the workforce, increasing their participation would give these countries only a short-term increase in their workforce, because at some point a participation ceiling is reached, further increases are not possible, and the impact on GDP growth ceases. * Stop the decline of men in the workforce. In the United States the labor force participation of men has been falling since the late 1960s. The labor force participation rate is the ratio between the size of the workforce and the size of the working age population. In 1969 the labor force participation rate of men in their prime years of 25–54 was 96% and in 2015 was under 89%. * Raise the retirement age. Raising the retirement age has the effect of increasing the working age population, but raising the retirement age requires other policy and cultural changes if it is to have any impact on the size of the workforce: # Pension reform. Many retirement policies encourage early retirement. For example, today (2018) less than 10% of Europeans between ages 64–74 are employed.    Instead of encouraging work after retirement, many public pension plans restrict earnings or hours of work. # Work place cultural reform. Employer attitudes towards older workers must change. Extending working lives will require investment in training and working conditions to maintain the productivity of older workers. One study estimated that increasing retirement age by 2–3 years per decade between 2010 and 2050 would offset declining working age populations faced by “old” countries such as Germany and Japan. * Increase immigration.  A country can increase the size of its workforce by importing more migrants into their working age population. Even if the indigenous workforce is declining, qualified immigrants can reduce or even reverse this decline.  However, this policy can only work if the immigrants can join the workforce and if the indigenous population accepts them. For example, starting in 2019 Japan, a country with declining workforce, will allow 5-year visas for 250,000 un-skilled guest workers.  Under the new measure, between 260,000 and 345,000 five-year visas will be made available for workers in 14 sectors suffering severe labor shortages, including caregiving, construction, agriculture and shipbuilding. * Reduce Human migration, emigration.  The table above shows that long term persistent emigration, often caused by what is called “Human capital flight, Brain Drain”, is often one of the major causes of a county's population decline.  However, Human capital flight#Education and innovation, research has also found that emigration can have net positive effects on sending countries, so this would argue against any attempts to reduce it.


Increase the productivity of the workforce

Development economists would call increasing the size of the workforce “extensive growth”. They would call increasing the
productivity Productivity is the efficiency Efficiency is the (often measurable) ability to avoid wasting materials, energy, efforts, money, and time in doing something or in producing a desired result. In a more general sense, it is the ability to do th ...
of that workforce “intensive growth”. In this case, GDP growth is driven by increased output per worker, and by extension, increased GDP/capita. In the context of a stable or declining population, increasing workforce productivity is better than mostly short-term efforts to increase the size of the workforce. Economic theory predicts that in the long term most growth will be attributable to intensive growth, that is, new technology and new and better ways of doing things plus the addition of Capital (economics), capital and education to spread them to the workforce . Increasing workforce productivity through intensive growth can only succeed if workers who become unemployed through the introduction of new technology can be retrained so that they can keep their skills current and not be left behind. Otherwise the result is technological unemployment. Funding for worker retraining could come from a robot tax, although the idea is controversial.


Long-term future trends

A long-term population decline is typically caused by
sub-replacement fertility Sub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate (TFR) that (if sustained) leads to each new generation A generation is "all of the people born and living Living or The Living may refer to: Common meanings *Life, a condition that disti ...
, coupled with a net immigration rate that fails to compensate the excess of deaths over births. A long-term decline is accompanied by population aging and creates an increase in the ratio of Pensioner, retirees to workers and children. When a sub-replacement fertility rate remains constant, population decline accelerates over the long term. Because of the global decline in the fertility rate, projections of future global population show a marked slowing of population growth and the possibility of long-term decline. The table below summarizes the United Nations' projections of future population growth. Any such long-term projections are necessarily highly speculative. The UN divides the world into six regions. Under their projections, during the period 2045–2050 Europe's population will be in decline and all other regions will experience significant reductions in growth; furthermore, by the end of the 21st century (the period 2095–2100) three of these regions will be showing population decline and global population growth will be zero. Note: the UN's methods for generating these numbers is explained at this reference. The table shows that the UN predicts long-term decline of population growth rates in every region; however, short-term baby booms and healthcare improvements, among other factors, can cause reversals of trends. Population declines in Russia (1995–2010), Germany (1975–1985), and Ireland (1850–1960) have seen long-term reversals. The UK, having seen almost zero growth during the period 1975–1985, is now (2015–2020) growing at 0.6% per year.


See also

* Biodiversity loss * Birth dearth * Societal collapse * Negative Population Growth * History of Easter Island#Destruction of society and population * Human overpopulation, Overpopulation * Human population control * Political demography * Population cycle * Population growth * Rural flight * Sub-replacement fertility * Zero population growth * Church of Euthanasia * Antinatalism Case studies: * Russian Cross * Aging of Europe * Aging in the American workforce * Aging of Japan * List of sovereign states and dependencies by total fertility rate


References


External links

* {{DEFAULTSORT:Population Decline Aftermath of war Ageing Demographic economic problems Population decline,