The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the

2020 United States presidential election The 2020 United States presidential election was the 59th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. The Democratic ticket of former vice president Joe Biden and the junior U.S. senator from California Kamala Ha ...

, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the

Republican Party Republican Party is a name used by many political parties around the world, though the term most commonly refers to the United States' Republican Party. Republican Party may also refer to: Africa *Republican Party (Liberia) * Republican Part ...

's nominee, incumbent president Donald Trump, and his running mate, Vice President

Mike Pence Michael Richard Pence (born June 7, 1959) is an American politician who served as the 48th vice president of the United States from 2017 to 2021 under President Donald Trump. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as the 50th ...

, against

Democratic Party Democratic Party most often refers to: *Democratic Party (United States) Democratic Party and similar terms may also refer to: Active parties Africa *Botswana Democratic Party *Democratic Party of Equatorial Guinea *Gabonese Democratic Party *Demo ...

nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, and his running mate, United States senator Kamala Harris, of California. Florida has 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College. Florida was one of five states as well as Washington, D.C. where Trump received a greater percentage of the two-party vote than he did in 2016.

Miami Beach, Florida Miami Beach is a coastal resort city in Miami-Dade County, Florida. It was incorporated on March 26, 1915. The municipality is located on natural and artificial island, man-made barrier islands between the Atlantic Ocean and Biscayne Bay, the ...

, which hosted the

1972 Democratic National Convention The 1972 Democratic National Convention was the presidential nominating convention of the Democratic Party for the 1972 presidential election. It was held at Miami Beach Convention Center in Miami Beach, Florida, also the host city of the Rep ...

, was a finalist to host the

2020 Democratic National Convention The 2020 Democratic National Convention was a presidential nominating convention that was held from August 17 to 20, 2020, at the Wisconsin Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and virtually across the United States. At the convention, delegates of ...

. The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston; Milwaukee was chosen. Florida was Trump's state of residency for this election;

New York New York most commonly refers to: * New York City, the most populous city in the United States, located in the state of New York * New York (state), a state in the northeastern United States New York may also refer to: Film and television * '' ...

was his home state in

2016 File:2016 Events Collage.png, From top left, clockwise: Bombed-out buildings in Ankara following the 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt; the impeachment trial of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff; Damaged houses during the 2016 Nagorno-Karabakh ...

. Trump was the first nominee of either major party to be a Florida resident. Biden was selected as the Democratic nominee in the

2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary The 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary took place on March 17, 2020, the third primary Tuesday of the month, as one of three states voting on the same day in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, while th ...

on March 17, 2020. Before the election, aggregate polls had Biden in the lead in Florida by up to almost 3 percentage points. Despite this, Trump won the state by a 3.4-point margin, improving on his margin from

, over Hillary Clinton, by 2.2 points; it was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since

2004 2004 was designated as an International Year of Rice by the United Nations, and the International Year to Commemorate the Struggle Against Slavery and its Abolition (by UNESCO). Events January * January 3 – Flash Airlines Flight 6 ...

. The main reason was increased support for Trump among

Latino Latino or Latinos most often refers to: * Latino (demonym), a term used in the United States for people with cultural ties to Latin America * Hispanic and Latino Americans in the United States * The people or cultures of Latin America; ** Latin A ...

voters in the state, particularly in

Miami-Dade County Miami-Dade County is a county located in the southeastern part of the U.S. state of Florida. The county had a population of 2,701,767 as of the 2020 census, making it the most populous county in Florida and the seventh-most populous county in ...

, which Biden carried by 7.4 points, significantly less than Clinton's 29.4-point margin in 2016 and Obama's 23.7-point margin in 2012. Trump carried the

Cuban Cuban may refer to: * Something of, from, or related to Cuba, a country in the Caribbean * Cubans, people from Cuba, or of Cuban descent ** Cuban exile, a person who left Cuba for political reasons, or a descendant thereof * Cuban citizen, a perso ...

vote with 56%, while Biden carried the Puerto Rican vote with 66%, and Trump and Biden split the South American vote with 50% each. Overall, Biden won 54% of Latinos. In this election, Florida voted 7.8 points right of the nation as a whole, the furthest it has voted from the nation since

1988 File:1988 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: The oil platform Piper Alpha explodes and collapses in the North Sea, killing 165 workers; The USS Vincennes (CG-49) mistakenly shoots down Iran Air Flight 655; Australia celebrates its Australian ...

, when the state voted 14.6 points right of the national result. This was the first election since 1992 that Florida backed the losing Republican incumbent as well as the loser of the election overall.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.

Republican primary

The Florida secretary of state declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.

Democratic primary

Three Democrats were still in the race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont

senator A senate is a deliberative assembly, often the upper house or chamber of a bicameral legislature. The name comes from the ancient Roman Senate (Latin: ''Senatus''), so-called as an assembly of the senior (Latin: ''senex'' meaning "the el ...

Bernie Sanders Bernard Sanders (born September8, 1941) is an American politician who has served as the junior United States senator from Vermont since 2007. He was the U.S. representative for the state's at-large congressional district from 1991 to 2007 ...

, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard. The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.

General election

Final predictions

Polling

Graphical summary Aggregate polls State polls } , 52% , - , - , – , – , - , style="text-align:left;"
Morning Consult
, May 6–15, 2020 , – (LV) , – , , 50% , 45% , - , - , – , – , - , style="text-align:left;"
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
, May 10–14, 2020 , 1,014 (LV) , ± 3.1% , 43% , , 45% , - , - , 3% , 10% , - , style="text-align:left;"
Florida Atlantic University
, May 8–12, 2020 , 928 (RV) , ± 3.1% , 47% , , 53% , - , - , – , – , - , style="text-align:left;"
Fox News
, Apr 18–21, 2020 , 1,004 (RV) , ± 3.0% , 43% , , 46% , - , - , 3% , 7% , - , style="text-align:left;"
Quinnipiac University
, Apr 16–20, 2020 , 1,385 (RV) , ± 2.6% , 42% , , 46% , - , - , 3% , 7% , - , style="text-align:left;"
St. Pete Polls
, Apr 16–17, 2020 , 5,659 (RV) , ± 1.3% , 48% , 48% , - , - , – , 4% , - , style="text-align:left;"
University of North Florida
, Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2020 , 3,244 (RV) , ± 1.7% , 40% , , 46% , - , - , – , 8% , - , style="text-align:left;"
AtlasIntel
, Mar 14–16, 2020 , 1,100 (RV) , ± 3.0% , 45% , 45% , - , - , 10% , – , - , style="text-align:left;"
Univision
, Mar 6–12, 2020 , 1,071 (RV) , ± 3.0% , , 48% , 45% , - , - , – , 7% , - , style="text-align:left;"
Florida Atlantic University
, Mar 5–7, 2020 , 1,216 (RV) , ± 2.7% , , 51% , 49% , - , - , – , – , - , style="text-align:left;"
University of North Florida
, Feb, 2020 , 696 (LV) , – , 45% , 45% , - , - , – , 10% , - , style="text-align:left;"
Saint Leo University
, Feb 17–22, 2020 , 900 (LV) , ± 3.5% , 40% , , 51% , - , - , – , 8% , - , style="text-align:left;"
University of North Florida
, Feb 10–18, 2020 , 668 (RV) , – , 48% , , 49% , - , - , – , 3% , - , style="text-align:left;"
Florida Atlantic University
, Jan 9–12, 2020 , 1,285 (RV) , ± 2.6% , 49% , , 51% , - , - , – , – , - , style="text-align:left;"
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce
, Jan 3–12, 2020 , 608 (LV) , ± 4% , , 49% , 45% , - , - , – , – , - , style="text-align:left;"
Mason-Dixon
, Dec 11–16, 2019 , 625 (RV) , ± 4.0% , 45% , , 47% , - , - , – , 8% , - , style="text-align:left;"
Siena College/NYT Upshot
, Oct 13–26, 2019 , 650 (LV) , ± 4.4% , 44% , , 46% , - , - , – , – , - , style="text-align:left;"
University of North Florida
, Oct 14–20, 2019 , 643 (RV) , ± 3.8% , 43% , , 48% , - , - , 6% , 3% , - , style="text-align:left;"
Florida Atlantic University
, Sep 12–15, 2019 , 934 (RV) , ± 3.1% , , 50.5% , 49.5% , - , - , – , – , - , style="text-align:left;"
Quinnipiac University
, Jun 12–17, 2019 , 1,279 (RV) , ± 3.3% , 41% , , 50% , - , - , 1% , 6% , - , style="text-align:left;"
St. Pete Polls
, Jun 15–16, 2019 , 3,095 (LV) , ± 1.8% , 47% , 47% , - , - , – , 6% , - , style="text-align:left;"
Florida Atlantic University
, May 16–19, 2019 , 1,007 (RV) , ± 3.0% , 50% , 50% , - , - , – , – , - , style="text-align:left;"
WPA Intelligence
, Apr 27–30, 2019 , 200 (LV) , ± 6.9% , , 48% , 44% , - , - , – , 7% Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey with Donald Trump and generic Democrat with Donald Trump and generic Opponent with Mike Pence and Joe Biden with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

Results

Results by county

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Duval Duval is a surname, literally translating from French language, French to English language, English as "of the valley". It derives from the Normans, Norman "Devall", which has both English and French ties. Variant spellings include: Davolls, Deav ...

(largest municipality: Jacksonville) *

Pinellas Pinellas is the name of a peninsula located roughly halfway down the west coast of Florida. It forms the western boundary of Tampa Bay and comprises the bulk of Pinellas County. There is a city named Pinellas Park in south Pinellas. The peninsula ...

(largest municipality: St. Petersburg) * Seminole (largest municipality: Sanford)

By congressional district

Trump won 15 of 27 congressional districts.

Analysis

This election was the first time since

1992 File:1992 Events Collage V1.png, From left, clockwise: 1992 Los Angeles riots, Riots break out across Los Angeles, California after the Police brutality, police beating of Rodney King; El Al Flight 1862 crashes into a residential apartment buildi ...

, and only the second time since

1960 It is also known as the "Year of Africa" because of major events—particularly the independence of seventeen African nations—that focused global attention on the continent and intensified feelings of Pan-Africanism. Events January * Ja ...

, that Florida went to the losing candidate in a presidential election. It was also the first time since 1960 that both Ohio and Florida have voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election, the first time since 1992 that Florida voted Republican while neighboring Georgia voted Democratic, and the first time since 1992 that Florida voted more Republican than North Carolina. Trump also became the first Republican candidate to win Florida with a majority of the state's popular vote since

George W. Bush George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is an American politician who served as the 43rd president of the United States from 2001 to 2009. A member of the Republican Party, Bush family, and son of the 41st president George H. W. Bush, he ...

did so in

. Despite his loss statewide, Biden became the first Democrat to win Duval County—consolidated with Jacksonville—since Southerner Jimmy Carter in

1976 Events January * January 3 – The International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights enters into force. * January 5 – The Pol Pot regime proclaims a new constitution for Democratic Kampuchea. * January 11 – The 1976 Phila ...

, and the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in

1948 Events January * January 1 ** The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) is inaugurated. ** The Constitution of New Jersey (later subject to amendment) goes into effect. ** The railways of Britain are nationalized, to form British ...

. Biden also flipped Pinellas County back to the Democratic Party. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying

St. Lucie County St. Lucie County ( es, Condado de Santa Lucía, link=) is a county in the U.S. state of Florida. As of the 2020 census, the population was 329,226. The county's seat is Fort Pierce. St. Lucie County is included in the Port St. Lucie, FL Metro ...

since Bill Clinton in

, the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Jefferson County since Lyndon B. Johnson in

1964 Events January * January 1 – The Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland is dissolved. * January 5 - In the first meeting between leaders of the Roman Catholic and Orthodox churches since the fifteenth century, Pope Paul VI and Patriarch ...

, and the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying

Monroe County Monroe County may refer to seventeen counties in the United States, all named for James Monroe: * Monroe County, Alabama *Monroe County, Arkansas * Monroe County, Florida * Monroe County, Georgia *Monroe County, Illinois *Monroe County, Indian ...

since Grover Cleveland in

1884 Events January–March * January 4 – The Fabian Society is founded in London. * January 5 – Gilbert and Sullivan's ''Princess Ida'' premières at the Savoy Theatre, London. * January 18 – Dr. William Price atte ...

. Also, this is the first time since

1888 In Germany, 1888 is known as the Year of the Three Emperors. Currently, it is the year that, when written in Roman numerals, has the most digits (13). The next year that also has 13 digits is the year 2388. The record will be surpassed as late ...

that Florida increased its margin to an incumbent that lost re-election nationally. Florida is one of three states that voted twice for both Barack Obama and Trump, the other two are Ohio and Iowa.

Ex-felons

The United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation, except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex crimes. The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which was speculated to have created further problems for ex-felons when they voted in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.

Miami-Dade County

In Miami-Dade County, the majority of Trump support came from the west and the majority of Biden support came from the east. People of

Mexican Mexican may refer to: Mexico and its culture *Being related to, from, or connected to the country of Mexico, in North America ** People *** Mexicans, inhabitants of the country Mexico and their descendants *** Mexica, ancient indigenous people ...

, Haitian, and

African African or Africans may refer to: * Anything from or pertaining to the continent of Africa: ** People who are native to Africa, descendants of natives of Africa, or individuals who trace their ancestry to indigenous inhabitants of Africa *** Ethn ...

descent tended to vote for Biden, while people of

, Chilean and Colombian descent did so for Trump, as well as the critical

Venezuelan Venezuela (; ), officially the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela ( es, link=no, República Bolivariana de Venezuela), is a country on the northern coast of South America, consisting of a continental landmass and many islands and islets in th ...

vote swinging Republican. Trump won approximately two thirds of the vote in Hialeah, whereas it was nearly evenly split four years prior. Sabrina Rodriguez of '' Politico'' wrote "a vote for Trump has become about more than just him, or even the Republican Party. It's about patriotism." Due to the heavy presence of the Cuban-American community, Hialeah traditionally, as of 2020, leaned towards Republican politics. Trump's coattails played a role in the election of Miami Republicans

Carlos A. Giménez Carlos Antonio Giménez ( ; born January 17, 1954) is a Cuban-born American politician and retired firefighter serving as the U.S. representative for . He was redistricted from . A Republican, he served as mayor of Miami-Dade County from 2011 to ...

and Maria Elvira Salazar to the House of Representatives. Residents of Cuban descent often had an antagonism against leftist movements due to associations with

Fidel Castro Fidel Alejandro Castro Ruz (; ; 13 August 1926 – 25 November 2016) was a Cuban revolutionary and politician who was the leader of Cuba from 1959 to 2008, serving as the prime minister of Cuba from 1959 to 1976 and president from 1976 to 200 ...

. Trump sought to attract these voters by implementing anti-Cuba policies. Additionally Trump made efforts to target other Hispanic demographics.

Notes

;Partisan clients

References

External links

Florida Elections Commission
government website * (State affiliate of the U.S.

League of Women Voters The League of Women Voters (LWV or the League) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan political organization in the United States. Founded in 1920, its ongoing major activities include registering voters, providing voter information, and advocating for vot ...

) * * * {{State results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election Florida

2020 2020 was heavily defined by the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to global Social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, social and Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic disruption, mass cancellations and postponements of events, COVID- ...

Presidential President most commonly refers to: *President (corporate title) *President (education), a leader of a college or university * President (government title) President may also refer to: Automobiles * Nissan President, a 1966–2010 Japanese fu ...