Turkish Invasion

The 2019 Turkish offensive into north-eastern Syria, code-named Operation Peace Spring ( tr, Barış Pınarı Harekâtı) by Turkey, was a cross-border military operation conducted by the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) and the Syrian National Army (SNA) against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and later Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in northern Syria.

On 6 October 2019, the Trump administration ordered American troops to withdraw from northeastern Syria, where the United States had been supporting its Kurdish allies. The military operation began on 9 October 2019 when the Turkish Air Force launched airstrikes on border towns. The conflict resulted in the displacement of over 300,000 people and has caused the death of more than 70 civilians in Syria and 20 civilians in Turkey. Human rights violations have also been reported. Amnesty International stated that it had gathered evidence of war crimes and other violations committed by Turkey and Turkish-backed Syrian forces who are said to "have displayed a shameful disregard for civilian life, carrying out serious violations and war crimes, including summary killings and unlawful attacks that have killed and injured civilians".

According to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the operation was intended to expel the SDF—designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey "due to its ties with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)", but considered an ally against ISIL by the Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve—from the border region as well as to create a 30 km-deep (20 mi) "safe zone" in Northern Syria where some of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey would resettle. As the proposed settlement zone is heavily Kurdish demographically, this intention has been criticized as an attempt at ethnic cleansing, a criticism rejected by the Turkish government who claimed they intended to "correct" the demographics that it alleges have been changed by the SDF.

The Turkish operation was met with mixed responses from the international community, including condemnations as well as support for the operation for the settlement of refugees in Northern Syria. Although Turkey claimed self-defense, according to international law experts it is an illegal use of force. While originally acknowledging Turkey's "right to defend itself", on 15 October, Russia hardened its position against the operation and deployed troops. Ten European nations and Canada imposed an arms embargo on Turkey, while the U.S. imposed sanctions on Turkish ministries and senior government officials in response to the offensive in Syria. Likewise, Trump's sudden pullout of US forces in Syria was also criticized by many, including former US military personnel, as a "serious betrayal to the Kurds" as well as a "catastrophic blow to US credibility as an ally and Washington's standing on the world stage", with one journalist stating that "this is one of the worst US foreign policy disasters since the Iraq War". On 19 November, the US Defense Department inspector general released a report finding that the American withdrawal and subsequent Turkish incursion allowed ISIL to "reconstitute capabilities and resources within Syria and strengthen its ability to plan attacks abroad".

The Syrian government initially criticized the SDF for the Turkish offensive, accusing it of separatism and not reconciling with the government, while at the same time also condemning the foreign invasion of Syrian territory. However, a few days later, the SDF reached an agreement with the Syrian government, in which it would allow the Syrian Army to enter the SDF-held towns of Manbij and Kobanî in an attempt to defend the towns from the Turkish offensive. Shortly thereafter, Syrian state broadcaster SANA announced that Syrian Army troops had started to deploy to the country's north. Turkey and the SNA launched an offensive to capture Manbij on the same day.

On 17 October 2019, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence announced that the U.S. and Turkey agreed on a deal in which Turkey would agree to a five-day ceasefire in Syria in return for a complete withdrawal by the SDF from its positions on the Syria-Turkey border. On 22 October 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reached a deal to extend the ceasefire by 150 additional hours if the SDF would move 30 kilometers away from the border, as well as from Tal Rifaat and Manbij. The terms of the deal also included joint Russian–Turkish patrols 10 kilometers into Syria from the border, except in the city of Qamishli. The new ceasefire started at 12pm local time on 23 October. The captured area remains part of the Turkish occupation of northern Syria.

Background

Turkish motives

Turkey has complained about a supposed presence of PKK-related forces at its southern border since 2012, when the first YPG pockets appeared during the Syrian Civil War. Following the 2014 Siege of Kobanî and the expansion of YPG/SDF forces and administration, Erdoğan's government considered the force a national security threat. The 2013–2015 peace process collapsed in July 2015, resulting in a war between PKK and Turkish forces. Like other regions in southeast Turkey, regions north of the border with Syria have seen numerous PKK-related deaths. According to a Crisis Group death toll analysis based upon Turkey government and Turkish media publications, the border regions north of SDF-controlled areas had 8 Turkey security forces and 5 civilians killed in PKK-related violence in 2018 and 2019 prior to the offensive. The Şırnak region had 26 security forces and 6 civilian deaths over the same period. Crisis Group did not specify if "PKK-related" deaths are linked to Syria's YPG and SDF, or from Turkey or Iraqi PKK.

Recent increase in jobless rate and electoral collaboration of opposition parties lead to significant AKP defeats in the 2019 Istanbul mayoral election, signaling difficulties for the leadership party. Military operations are known to boost nationalism and Turkey executive's popularity. It is also seen as an effective way to break apart opposition alliances, between pro-Kurdish and pro-peace representatives actively criminalized by the government, and other opposition parties who are faced with the dilemma of betraying the informal political alliance in order to showcast popular patriotism. Moreover, another driver for the Turkish operation into Syria is the domestic politics involving the 3.6 million Syrian refugees residing in Turkey—the highest number of refugees hosted by any country—which has led to increasing public dissatisfaction and therefore public support and pressure for intervention. The negative sentiment against refugees among the Turkish electorate allows Erdogan and his AKP to benefit from moving refugees back to Syria. According to CrisisGroup analysis, this political strategy has cost AKP half of its conservative Kurds' supports since 2015.

Immediate context rebuff

Turkey and the United States struck a deal in August 2019 after months of Turkish threats to unilaterally invade northern Syria. The United States viewed the Syrian Democratic Forces as one of its key allies in the military intervention against ISIL in Syria, while Turkey viewed the group as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which it considers a terrorist group. The agreement established the Northern Syria Buffer Zone, which aimed to reduce tensions by addressing Turkey's security concerns with monitoring and joint patrols, while still allowing the NES to retain control over the areas that it had under its control at that time. The agreement was received favorably by the U.S. and SDF, but Turkey was generally dissatisfied with it. Turkey's dissatisfaction led to numerous Turkish efforts to expand the area covered by the buffer zone, secure Turkish control over parts of it, or relocate millions of refugees into the zone, with all of these efforts failing in the face of firm SDF resistance and American ambivalence.

Despite the official start of U.S.-Turkish ground patrols, the dismantling of SDF fortifications, and the withdrawal of YPG units from parts of the buffer zone, tensions continued to rise as Turkey levied yet more demands on the SDF—all of which the SDF denied, as they felt they had accepted a harsh compromise by permitting Turkish troops to take part in joint patrols with their American counterparts in northern Syria. Turkey's dissatisfaction with the status quo of the agreement grew into open hostility, with the Turkish president openly posing an ultimatum against the SDF. The ultimatum was ignored by the group and Turkey declared its "deadline" to have expired at the start of October that same year.

Prelude

Preparations for the offensive began in July 2019 and the final preparation in October, starting with the withdrawal of American forces from positions near the Turkish border, after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had a phone call with United States President Donald Trump about plans for a military operation against SDF-held areas east of the Euphrates river. While the U.S. government stated it did not support the Turkish-led offensive, the White House also announced on 6 October 2019 that it would not interfere, and would withdraw all personnel in the area to avoid a potential U.S.-Turkish standoff; U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo denied that this amounted to giving Turkish forces a "green light" to attack the SDF while a spokesman for the SDF called the U.S. withdrawal a betrayal. The US also reportedly cut off aid to the SDF in order not to arm them against a NATO ally.

On 8 October 2019, the Turkish military reportedly bombed a convoy of weapons vehicles heading from Iraq into Syria destined for the SDF. However the SDF did not retaliate and no casualties were reported as a result of the air strike. On the same day Russian special forces opened a crossing on the Euphrates river between areas held by the Syrian Government and SDF in the Deir ez-Zor Governorate. While the SDF stated that the Syrian military was preparing to enter the city of Manbij in northeastern Aleppo, the Syrian government responded by saying the build up of the Syrian military near Manbij was being done in order to prevent the Turkish military from entering the city. On the same day, Turkish forces shelled Ras al-Ayn and fired machine guns in the vicinity of the city.

Operation timeline

9 October 2019

The operation began on 9 October 2019, with Turkish airstrikes and howitzers targeting the SDF-held towns of Tell Abyad, Ras al-Ayn where thousands of people were reported to have fled the town, Ayn Issa and Qamishli. The start of the incursion was symbolic, as it was the 21st anniversary of the PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan's expulsion from Syria in 1998 by the government of Hafez al-Assad.

In response to the cross-border shelling, SDF's spokesman stated that Turkey was targeting civilians. Six rockets were later launched at the Turkish city of Nusaybin as a response by the YPG, and two reportedly hit the Turkish town Ceylanpınar. The SDF also announced in response to the start of the Turkish operation they would be halting anti-ISIL operations, and that two civilians had been killed. In response to the airstrikes, the SDF has called upon the United States to establish a no-fly zone over northern Syria.

During the day, under pressure from Congressmen and public opinion, Trump sent a letter to Erdoğan proposing to make a deal, otherwise he would destroy the Turkish economy. Erdoğan took offense to the letter, reportedly throwing it in the trash. The White House released the letter to the press on 16 October, receiving wide ridicule.

Ground offensive

By the end of the day, the Turkish military announced that the ground phase of the operation had begun from three points including Tell Abyad.

10 October 2019

Before dawn on the morning of 10 October 2019, the Turkish military officially began the ground offensive against the SDF; they also announced they had hit 181 targets in northern Syria, and 14,000 rebels backed by Turkey, including Ahrar al-Sharqiya rebel group, Sultan Murad Division, and Hamza Division, are also taking part in the Turkish-led offensive. According to a research paper published this October by the pro-government Turkish think tank SETA, "Out of the 28 factions [in the Syrian National Army], 21 were previously supported by the United States, three of them via the Pentagon’s program to combat DAESH. Eighteen of these factions were supplied by the CIA via the MOM Operations Room in Turkey, a joint intelligence operation room of the 'Friends of Syria' to support the armed opposition. Fourteen factions of the 28 were also recipients of the U.S.-supplied TOW anti-tank guided missiles."

The SDF said they repelled a Turkish advance into Tell Abyad. Later during the day, clashes reportedly broke out between the SDF and Turkish-aligned forces near al-Bab. Turkish-led forces made advances around the area of Tell Abyad and captured the villages of Tabatin and Al-Mushrifah. By nightfall Turkish Armed Forces declared control of 11 villages. As fighting went on around Tell Abyad, the Syrian National Army announced it captured the villages of Mishrifah, Al-Hawi, Barzan, Haj Ali and a farm east of the city. During Turkish air strikes during the fighting, SDF stated that the Turkish air force hit a prison that was holding captured ISIL fighters. Turkish media reported in the late evening that 174 SDF fighters were killed, wounded or captured.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that day that 109 SDF fighters had been killed in the operation as well as an unspecified number of fighters wounded and captured. In a speech to lawmakers from Erdoğan's AKP, the Turkish president also threatened to flood Europe with 3.6 million refugees if European nations continued to criticize the military operation, in particular if they labelled it an invasion.

70,000 people fled from border towns in the SDF following Turkish bombardment.

According to Turkey's Ministry of National Defence, one Turkish soldier was killed by the YPG.

11 October 2019

Two journalists were wounded in Nusaybin, when the building they were filming from came under fire from Qamishli across the border by SDF fighters. The incident was broadcast live on Turkish TV channels, according to Turkish sources.

Three civilians were killed in Suruc by SDF shelling. In response to the attack, Turkey shelled YPG positions in Kobani, across the border from Suruç. Eight more civilians were killed later in the day in Nusaybin and 35 were injured by SDF mortar attack, raising the total civilians killed by SDF shelling in Turkey to 18, according to Turkish sources.

Seven civilians were killed in Syria by Turkish forces in the Tal Abyad area including three killed by Turkish snipers according to SOHR.

As reported on this day, according to the Turkish Ministry of National Defence, a total of 399 SDF fighters were killed, captured or wounded since the start of the Turkish military operation.

The Syrian National Army stated to have taken the village of Halawa which is southeast of Tell Abyad. TAF and SNA announced the capture of Tell Halaf later in the day and released a video from inside the town.

In the city of Qamishli, a suspected ISIL car bomb killed five civilians, while a reported Turkish artillery strike hit a nearby prison, and five suspected ISIL members, previously detained in SDF custody, escaped according to SDF.

In the city of Kobanî, the area immediately around a U.S. special forces base experienced heavy shelling by Turkish artillery; the U.S. troops did not retaliate, but withdrew after the shelling ended. Turkey responded by denying that it targeted the U.S. base, instead stating that it had fired upon SDF positions. The Pentagon further raised concerns that the Turkish Army deliberately "bracketed" US Forces stationed in Kobanî with artillery fire. According to Turkish Defense Minister, the mortar attack targeting the town of Suruç earlier in the day was deliberately launched 1000 meters from the US base in Kobanî by SDF to avoid Turkish retaliation and the attack was in response.

The BBC
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