Tropical Storm Josephine (2008)

The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was the most destructive Atlantic hurricane season since 2005, causing over 1,000 deaths and nearly $50 billion (2008 USD) in damage. The season ranked as the third costliest ever at the time, but has since fallen to ninth costliest. It was an above-average season, featuring sixteen named storms, eight of which became hurricanes, and five which further became major hurricanes. It officially started on June 1 and ended on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. However, the formation of Tropical Storm Arthur caused the season to start one day early. It was the only year on record in which a major hurricane existed in every month from July through November in the North Atlantic. Bertha became the longest-lived July tropical cyclone on record for the basin, the first of several long-lived systems during 2008.

The season was devastating for Haiti, where nearly 800 people were killed by four consecutive tropical cyclones (Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike), especially Hurricane Hanna, in August and September. These four storms caused about $1 billion in damage in Haiti alone. The precursor to Kyle and the outer rain bands of Paloma also impacted Haiti. Cuba also received extensive impacts from Gustav, Ike, and Paloma, with Gustav and Ike making landfall in the country at major hurricane intensity and Paloma being a Category 2 when striking the nation. More than $10 billion in damage and 8 deaths occurred there.

Ike was the most destructive storm of the season, as well as the strongest in terms of minimum barometric pressure, devastating Cuba as a major hurricane and later making landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a large high-end Category 2 hurricane. One very unusual feat was a streak of tropical cyclones affecting land, with all but one system impacting land in 2008. The unusual number of storms with impact led to one of the deadliest and destructive seasons in the history of the Atlantic basin, especially with Ike, as its overall damages made it the second-costliest Atlantic hurricane on record at the time, although it has since been surpassed by several hurricanes.

Seasonal forecasts

Noted hurricane experts Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach, Dr. William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU) – as well as forecasters at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Met Office (UKMO), Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), Weather Services International (WSI) – issued forecasts of hurricane activity prior to the start of the season.

Dr. Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Dr. Gray) defines the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms reaching at least Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, with 5 to 7 of those reaching hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.

Pre-season forecasts

The first forecast for the 2008 hurricane season was released by CSU on December 7, 2007. In its report, the organization predicted 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an annual Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 115 units. The odds of a major hurricane landfall in the Caribbean and along the United States were projected to be above average. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. It is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 39 mph (63 km/h), which is the threshold for tropical storm strength. The odds of a major hurricane landfall in the Caribbean and along the United States were projected to be above average in the CSU forecast.

Three days later, TSR—a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management, and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London—called for a very active season featuring 15.4 (±4.7) named storms, 8.3 (±3.0) hurricanes, 3.7 (±1.8) major hurricanes, and a cumulative ACE index of 149 (±66) units. Mirroring CSU, the group assigned high probabilities that the United States and Lesser Antilles landfalling ACE index would be above average. On January 3, 2008, WSI projected 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

In April, CSU slightly raised their values owing to a favorable Atlantic sea surface temperature configuration during the preceding month, upping the projected numbers to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. TSR, in contrast, slightly reduced their numbers on April 7 due to cooler projections for Atlantic Ocean temperatures compared to their December forecast. WSI on April 23 raised the expected number of hurricanes from 7 to 8 and major hurricanes from 3 to 4 while leaving the number of named storms unchanged. On May 22, the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center announced their first seasonal outlook for the 2008 season, highlighting 65 percent odds of an above-normal season, 25 percent odds for a near-normal season, and 10 percent odds of a below-average season. A range of 12 to 16 named storms, 6 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major hurricanes was provided, each with 60 to 70 percent probability. The CPC, alongside TSR and CSU, highlighted the ongoing multi-decadal period of enhanced Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, the ongoing La Niña in the Pacific, and warmer than average ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Atlantic as the basis for their predictions.

Midseason outlooks

On June 3, CSU released an updated outlook for the season but left their values from April unchanged. Examining conditions in April and May, the organization compiled a list of hurricane seasons with similar conditions: 1951, 1961, 2000, and 2001. TSR slightly lowered their numbers in their June 5 update but continued to predict an above-average season. Meanwhile, on June 18, the UKMO released their seasonal forecast, assessing a 70 percent probability the number of tropical storms would fall between 10 and 20, with 15 tropical storms noted as the most likely value in 2008. No projections for the number of hurricanes, major hurricanes, or ACE were given. On July 2, WSI held firm to their April forecast; the organization was forced to slightly increase the number of named storms and hurricanes later that month. On July 4, TSR slightly raised their forecast. Following an active start to the season, CSU upped their predictions in an August 5 update, calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 175 units. TSR released their final outlook for the season that day, raising their values to 18.2 (±2.9) named storms, 9.7 (±1.7) hurricanes, 4.5 (±1.4) major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 191 (±42) units. On August 7, NOAA's CPC raised their probability of an above-average season from 65 percent to 85 percent. The final outlook yielded a 67 percent chance of 14 to 18 named storms, 7 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. WSI, meanwhile, issued their final seasonal outlook on August 27, reaffirming their numbers from the previous month.

Seasonal summary

The 2008 hurricane season officially began on June 1, though Tropical Storm Arthur formed one day earlier. The season was above-average, featuring 16 named storms, 8 of which intensified into hurricanes, while 5 of the hurricanes reached major hurricane status. Despite a La Niña dissipating early in the summer months, atmospheric conditions remained favorable for tropical cyclogenesis, including abnormally low wind shear between 10°N and 20°N. Additionally, sea surface temperatures in the deep tropics and the Caribbean Sea were fifth warmest since 1950. The season saw the first occurrence of major hurricanes in the months of July through November. Four storms formed before the start of August, and the season also had the earliest known date for three storms to be active on the same day: Hurricane Bertha, and Tropical Storms Cristobal and Dolly were all active on July 20. This season was also one of only ten Atlantic hurricanes seasons on record to have a major hurricane form before August, as well as one of only seven Atlantic seasons to feature a major hurricane in November. The final tropical cyclone, Hurricane Paloma, degenerated into a remnant low-pressure area over Cuba on November 9, three weeks before the season officially ended on November 30.

The season was devastating for Haiti, where four consecutive tropical cyclones – Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike – killed at least 793 people and caused roughly $1 billion in damage. Hurricane Ike was the most destructive storm of the season, as well as the strongest, devastating Cuba as a major hurricane and later making landfall near Galveston, Texas, at Category 2 (nearly Category 3) intensity. The cyclone caused a particularly devastating storm surge along the western Gulf Coast of the United States due to in part to its large size. Ike was the second-costliest hurricane in the Atlantic at the time, but has since dropped to sixth following Sandy, Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Hanna was the deadliest storm of the season, killing 533 people, mostly in Haiti. Gustav was another very destructive storm, causing up to $8.31 billion in damage to Haiti, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the United States. Dolly caused up to $1.6 billion in damage to south Texas and northeastern Mexico. Bertha was an early season Cape Verde-type hurricane that became the longest-lived July North Atlantic tropical cyclone on record, though it caused few deaths and only minor damage. The Atlantic basin tropical cyclones of 2008 collectively caused roughly $49.4 billion in damage and at least 1,074 fatalities. At the time, the season ranked as the third costliest on record, behind only 2004 and 2005. However, it has since fallen to eighth.

Other notable storms included Tropical Storm Fay, which became the first Atlantic tropical cyclone to make landfall in the same U.S. state on 4 occasions; Tropical Storm Marco, the smallest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record; Hurricane Omar, a powerful late-season major hurricane which caused moderate damage to the ABC islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands in mid-October; and Hurricane Paloma, which became the third-strongest November hurricane in recorded history and caused about $454.4 million in damage to the Cayman Islands and Cuba. The only storm of the season to not reach tropical storm status, Tropical Depression Sixteen, contributed to a significant flooding event in Central America, with the cyclone itself directly blamed for at least nine deaths.

Overall, the season's activity was reflected with a total cumulative ACE rating of 146. This was well above the normal average, and nearly double the rating given to each of the two preceding seasons (792006; 742007).

Systems

Tropical Storm Arthur

In late May, a westward-moving tropical wave and the mid-level remnants of Tropical Storm Alma from the East Pacific combined over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This led to the formation of Tropical Storm Arthur by 00:00 UTC on May 31. The cyclone reached its peak intensity with winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) six hours after development, and it made landfall at 09:00 UTC on June 1 about halfway between Belize City, Belize, and Chetumal, Yucatán Peninsula, at that strength. Once inland, Arthur quickly lost organization and degenerated to a remnant area of low pressure around 00:00 UTC on June 2. It dissipated six hours later. In conjunction with Alma, Tropical Storm Arthur dropped over of rainfall across portions of Belize, destroying roads, washing out bridges, and damaging 714 homes. Total damage was estimated at $78 million, and five deaths were recorded.

Hurricane Bertha

A well-defined tropical wave left Africa on July 1 and organized into a tropical depression by 06:00 UTC on July 3. Six hours later, it intensified into Tropical Storm Bertha, the easternmost tropical storm on record in the Atlantic during July. Steered on a west-northwest or northwest course, Bertha reached hurricane strength around 06:00 UTC on July 7. The cyclone then underwent a period of rapid intensification that brought it to its peak as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph (205 km/h) later that day. Structural changes and a more hostile environment caused the storm to fluctuate in intensity as it passed east of Bermuda. By July 19, however, the storm began to undergo extratropical transition, a process it completed by 12:00 UTC the next morning. The post-tropical storm continued northeast and merged with a larger extratropical low near Iceland on July 21. Lasting a duration of 17 days, Bertha became the longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone on record during the month of July.

As the cyclone passed east of Bermuda, it produced strong wind gusts peaking at 91 mph (146 km/h). Power lines were downed, cutting electricity to about 7,500 homes, and tree branches were snapped. Heavy rainfall, reaching 4.77 in (121 mm) at L.F. Wade International Airport, flooded roadways. Meanwhile, Bertha produced large waves and rip currents along the U.S. East Coast, resulting in 3 deaths offshore New Jersey and 57 water rescues in Atlantic City alone. Fifty-five people were injured off the coast of Delaware while an additional four individuals were injured off North Carolina. At Wrightsville Beach in particular, officials estimated at least 60 water rescues over a 48-hour span. Over a seven-day period beginning on July 9, the storm contributed to 1,500 ocean rescues in Ocean City, Maryland.

Tropical Storm Cristobal

A trough of low pressure, the remnants of an old frontal boundary, extended along the East Coast of the United States on July 15. The trough extended into the Gulf of Mexico the following day and resulted in the development of a circulation that subsequently crossed Florida on July 17. Once in the Atlantic, the system became better organized and coalesced into a tropical depression around 00:00 UTC on July 19. It intensified into Tropical Storm Cristobal twelve hours later. After passing close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the storm continued northeast and reached peak winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) early on July 21, when an eye feature was evident on microwave imagery. Progressively cooler waters began to weaken Cristobal the next day, and it was then absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone south of Newfoundland around 12:00 UTC on July 23.

The precursor disturbance to Cristobal produced up to 6 in (150 mm) of rain in Florida, blocking storm drains and causing street flooding. Some 35–40 cars were pulled from submerged streets in Marco Island, with some vehicles submerged in as much as 2 ft (0.6 m) of water. Generally lesser rainfall totals occurred across the Southeastern United States, though record daily accumulations around 3.43 in (87.1 mm) resulted in minor flooding in Wilmington, North Carolina. Moisture from the tropical cyclone became intertwined with an approaching frontal system, producing a maximum rainfall total of 6.5 in (165 mm) in Baccaro, Nova Scotia. Basements were flooded and roads were washed out along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia.

Hurricane Dolly

A tropical wave emerged off Africa on July 11. As the wave moved west into the Caribbean, it produced gale-force winds and its satellite presentation resembled that of a tropical storm at times. However, the system did not develop a well-defined circulation until around 12:00 UTC on July 20, at which time it was designated as Tropical Storm Dolly about east of Chetumal, Quintana Roo. On a northwest course, the cyclone failed to organize initially; however, a more conducive environment in the Gulf of Mexico allowed Dolly to attain hurricane strength by 00:00 UTC on July 23 and reach its peak as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph (155 km/h) twelve hours later. Dry air and cooler waters eroded the storm's eyewall after peak intensity, but Dolly still harbored winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) at its landfall on South Padre Island, Texas, at 18:20 UTC. It made a second landfall on the Texas mainland at a slightly reduced strength two hours later. Once inland, Dolly weakened to a tropical storm early on July 24 and ultimately degenerated to a remnant low around 00:00 UTC on July 26. The remnant low turned north and crossed the Mexico–United States border before losing its identity over New Mexico early on July 27.

In its early stages, mudslides generated by heavy rainfall from the storm caused 21 deaths in Guatemala. As the storm progressed across the Yucatán Peninsula, it produced significant beach erosion in Cancún. Offshore, the body of a fisherman was recovered while three others were purported missing. Offshore the Florida Panhandle, one person drowned in rough surf. In Texas, the hurricane caused moderate structural damage to the roofs of homes on South Padre Island, where maximum sustained winds of 78 mph (126 km/h), gusting to 107 mph (172 km/h), were recorded. Some buildings of lesser construction were severely damaged as well. Extensive damage to trees and utility poles occurred throughout Cameron and Willacy counties. Six weak tornadoes or waterspouts were recorded, but generally minor damage was observed. Widespread heavy rainfall occurred throughout southern Texas, with a concentration of 15 in (381 mm) near Harlingen; this rainfall caused severe inland flooding. Farther south in Mexico, a hurricane research team east of Matamoros, Tamaulipas, recorded sustained winds of 96 mph (154 km/h), gusting to 119 mph (192 km/h). In the city itself, downed power lines fell into floodwaters, electrocuting a man. The remnants of the storm heavy impacted Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, where five homes and a historic church were collapsed and about 2,840 acres (1,150 hectares) of corn and barley were ruined. Farther north in New Mexico, an estimated 350–500 structures were damaged, roads and bridges were washed out, and one man was swept away by the swollen Rio Ruidoso river. In nearby El Paso, Texas, homes and streets were flooded, and one indirect death occurred when a driver rolled over after hitting a puddle. Overall, Dolly caused at least $1.6 billion in damage, with $1.3 billion in the United States and $300 million in Mexico.

Tropical Storm Edouard

A trough developed across the northern Gulf of Mexico on August 2 and quickly developed into a tropical depression about 85 miles (140 km) southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River around 12:00 UTC on August 3. The depression moved westward and intensified into Tropical Storm Edouard on August 4. The impacts of northerly wind shear initially curtailed intensification; the following day, however, a more favorable environmental regime allowed the storm to attain maximum winds of 65 mph (100 km/h). Edouard made landfall near the McFaddin and Texas Point National Wildlife Refuges at 12:00 UTC on August 5 at peak strength. The system quickly weakened once inland and was downgraded to a tropical depression early on August 6 before degenerating into a remnant low at 06:00 UTC that day. It continued to move northwestward across Texas and dissipated around 00:00 UTC on August 7.

Rough surf and rip currents led to the deaths of three men in Panama City Beach, Florida, a fourth man in Perdido Key, a fifth man at Orange Beach, Alabama, and a sixth man near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Wind gusts in Louisiana peaked at 62 mph (100 km/h), ripping the roofs of mobile homes, downing numerous trees, and toppling power lines across Cameron, Calcasieu, and Vermilion parishes. Along the coastline, storm tides generally varied between 4–5 ft (1.2–1.5 m), with a peak of 5.09 ft (1.55 m) near Intracoastal City. This contributed to minor inland flooding. In Texas, rainfall peaked at 6.48 in (165 mm) near Baytown, leading to the inundation of dozens of homes. Several roadways, including a portion of Interstate 10, were closed across Chambers and Harris counties. Sustained winds of 56 mph (90 km/h), gusting to 71 mph (114 km/h), brought down trees and power lines while inflicting minor roof damage to hundreds of homes. Overall Edouard caused about $800,000 in damage, with about $350,000 in Louisiana and $450,000 in Texas.

Tropical Storm Fay

A tropical wave emerged from Africa on August 6 and moved swiftly across the Atlantic, developing into a tropical depression by 12:00 UTC on August 15 while near the northwestern tip of Puerto Rico. The depression intensified into Tropical Storm Fay as it struck the coastline of Haiti, and it maintained its status as a minimal tropical storm while progressing through the Cayman Trough and into south-central Cuba. Fay curved north and zigzagged across Florida, making a record four separate landfalls in the state. The first occurred near Key West on August 18 and the second just east of Cape Romano on August 19. While inland over Lake Okeechobee, Fay developed a well-defined eye and reached peak winds of 70 mph (110 km/h). The third landfall occurred near Flagler Beach on August 21 and the final southwest of Carrabelle on August 23. The cyclone weakened to a tropical depression in the Florida Panhandle on August 24 and moved northwest into Mississippi before making an abrupt turn to the northeast the following day. It merged with a frontal boundary and became extratropical around 06:00 UTC on August 27. The low was ultimately absorbed by a larger extratropical system over Kentucky early the next morning.

Throughout the Caribbean, Fay contributed to at least 16 deaths: 10 in Haiti, 5 in the Dominican Republic, and 1 in Jamaica. Many of these deaths were resultant from the storm's prolific rainfall, with numerous weather stations across the Dominican Republic and Cuba reporting accumulations of 7–10 in (178–254 mm); Agabama, Cuba, recorded a localized maximum of 18.23 in (463 mm). The combination of heavy rainfall and gusty winds resulted in over 2,400 homes being damaged across the Dominican Republic. Similar destruction was reported in Haiti, particularly on Gonâve Island. As Fay meandered across Florida, it produced widespread torrential rainfall there, with accumulations peaking at a record 27.65 in (702.3 mm) in the city of Melbourne. While run-off ultimately helped replenish Lake Okeechobee and surrounding reservoirs, the immediate impact of the rain event was more destructive. Thousands of residences were inundated, some with as much as 5 ft (1.5 m) of water, and sewage systems were congested. Numerous trees were felled, and downed power lines cut electricity to tens of thousands of homes. Fay was a prolific tornado producer, with 81 confirmations across 5 states: 19 in Florida, 17 in Georgia, 16 in North Carolina, 15 in Alabama, and 14 in South Carolina. A majority were short-lived and weak. Overall, Fay caused seventeen deaths in the United States: fifteen in Florida, one in Georgia, and one in Alabama. Throughout all areas impacted, Fay caused about $560 million in damage.

Hurricane Gustav

A tropical wave departed Africa on August 13, coalescing into a tropical depression south of Puerto Rico by 00:00 UTC on August 25 and intensifying into Tropical Storm Gustav twelve hours later. With a small inner core, the system rapidly strengthened to a hurricane early on August 26 before striking the southwestern peninsula of Haiti later that day. Gustav weakened while traversing Haiti and Jamaica but quickly restrengthened over the northwestern Caribbean, reaching winds of 145 mph (230 km/h) before making landfall on the Isle of Youth, and striking the mainland just east of Los Palacios, Cuba, with winds of 155 mph (240 km/h) later on August 30. Plagued by wind shear and dry air, the hurricane did not re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico, instead making a final landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana, at 15:00 UTC on September 1 with winds of 105 mph (165 km/h). Gustav continued northwest, weakening to a tropical depression over northern Louisiana before merging with a cold front over northern Arkansas around 12:00 UTC on September 4. The remnants accelerated northeast and merged with another extratropical low over the Great Lakes later on September 5.

Throughout the Dominican Republic, over 1,239 homes were damaged, of which 12 were destroyed, and about 50 communities were isolated. Eight people were killed in a mudslide. In neighboring Haiti, some 10,250 homes were damaged, including about 2,100 that were destroyed. Eighty-five people were killed. The storm caused $210 million in damage across Jamaica and resulted in 15 deaths. The impact of Gustav was ruinous across the Isle of Youth and mainland Cuba, where sustained winds of 155 mph (249 km/h) and gusts up to 211 mph (340 km/h) resulted in damage to 120,509 structures (about 21,941 beyond repair). The wind gust, observed at Paso Real de San Diego weather station in Pinar del Río Province, was the second highest wind gust ever recorded on land in a tropical cyclone, behind only Cyclone Olivia's gust on Barrow Island, Australia. A total of 140 electrical towers were destroyed, laying waste to 809 mi (1,302 km) of power lines and cutting power to much of the area. Dozens of residents were injured but no deaths occurred. The estimated cost of the storm fell just shy of $2.1 billion. Upon striking the United States, Gustav produced strong winds that damaged the roofs and windows of many structures, as well as a large storm surge along the coastline of Louisiana which overtopped levees and floodwalls in New Orleans. Widespread heavy rainfall contributed to significant inland flooding from Louisiana into Arkansas. Tornadoes were confirmed throughout the region, including 21 in Mississippi, 11 in Louisiana, 6 in Florida, 2 in Arkansas, and 1 in Alabama. In total, Gustav cost $6 billion in the United States and killed 53 people: 48 in Louisiana, 4 in Florida, and 1 at sea.

Hurricane Hanna

A tropical wave entered the Atlantic on August 19, leading to the formation of a tropical depression around 00:00 UTC on August 28 approximately east-northeast of the northernmost Leeward Islands. Twelve hours later, the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Hanna. Interaction between the cyclone and an upper-level low kept Hanna fairly steady-state for several days, with its appearance briefly resembling that of a subtropical storm. Meanwhile, a building ridge over the eastern United States forced the storm to dive south. A reprieve in upper-level winds allowed Hanna to attain hurricane strength at 18:00 UTC on September 1 and reach peak winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) six hours later. However, the aforementioned ridge soon began to impart northerly wind shear, and the cyclone weakened accordingly. A second upper-level low caused Hanna to conduct a counter-clockwise loop north of Haiti before reaching the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, sending the storm ashore near the North Carolina–South Carolina border at 07:20 UTC on September 6 with winds of 70 mph (110 km/h). It curved northeast once inland, merging with one cold front over southern New England and a second near Newfoundland.

Hanna produced heavy rainfall across mountainous sections of Puerto Rico, leading to mudslides that damaged bridges and roads. Strong winds downed trees and power lines. Damage across the Turks and Caicos Islands in the wake of the storm was presumed to have been minor—confined to some roof damage to homes—but damage assessments were limited given the impact of Hurricane Ike less than a week later. Across Hispaniola, torrential rainfall exacerbated flooding that had already occurred during Tropical Storm Fay and Hurricane Gustav. While the exact death toll is indiscernible due to the quick succession of tropical cyclones, Hanna is believed to have killed at least 529 people in Haiti, most in the commune of Gonaïves, as well as 1 person in the Dominican Republic. Along the coastline of the United States, rip currents killed one person at Kure Beach, North Carolina and another in Spring Lake, New Jersey

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