The Trafalgar Group is an opinion polling and survey company founded by
Robert Cahaly and based in Atlanta, Georgia. It first publicly released polls in 2016. Trafalgar has been questioned for its methodology and for an apparent bias towards the
Republican Party.
Notably, Trafalgar successfully predicted the result of the
2016 U.S. presidential election
The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket ...
. Although they incorrectly predicted the result of the
2020 U.S. presidential election
The 2020 United States presidential election was the 59th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. The Democratic ticket of former vice president Joe Biden and the junior U.S. senator from California Kamala Ha ...
for Trump in several states, their state polling margins were considered as some of the most accurate that cycle.
Trafalgar's polls for the
2022 midterms were inaccurate, predicting Republican wins or close races in multiple states where Republicans ended up losing by significant margins.
Method
Trafalgar Group adjusts its polls for a "
social desirability bias
In social science research, social-desirability bias is a type of response bias that is the tendency of survey respondents to answer questions in a manner that will be viewed favorably by others. It can take the form of over-reporting "good behavi ...
" effect, the hypothesized tendency of some voters to calibrate their responses to polls towards what they believe the survey taker would like to hear.
It does this by not only asking respondents how they plan to vote, but also how they think their neighbors might vote.
According to ''
The New York Times
''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid d ...
'', there is almost no explanation of the Trafalgar Group's methodology: "the methods page on Trafalgar's website contains what reads like a vague advertisement of its services and explains that its polls actively confront social desirability bias, without giving specifics as to how."
Responding to criticism of Trafalgar's polling methods and its lack of transparency about its methods, Cahaly said in November 2020, "I think we’ve developed something that’s very different from what other people do, and I really am not interested in telling people how we do it. Just judge us by whether we get it right." In presidential polling, Trafalgar Group only conducts state-level polls; according to Cahaly, "we don't do national polls, and that's for the same reason I don't keep up with hits in a baseball game: It's an irrelevant statistic".
Performance and accuracy
Before the 2020 election, ''FiveThirtyEight'' gave Trafalgar a grade of C−.
Afterwards, until March 2023, ''FiveThirtyEight'' had Trafalgar at a grade of A-.
As of March 9th 2023, ''FiveThirtyEight'' has Trafalgar at a grade of B.
2016 US presidential election
During the
2016 United States presidential election
The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket ...
, Trafalgar Group was the only polling firm showing
Donald Trump
Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of P ...
winning the state of
Michigan
Michigan () is a U.S. state, state in the Great Lakes region, Great Lakes region of the Upper Midwest, upper Midwestern United States. With a population of nearly 10.12 million and an area of nearly , Michigan is the List of U.S. states and ...
, which he ultimately did, and – according to
RealClearPolitics – "nearly the only" one correctly predicting Trump's win in
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania (; ( Pennsylvania Dutch: )), officially the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, is a state spanning the Mid-Atlantic, Northeastern, Appalachian, and Great Lakes regions of the United States. It borders Delaware to its southeast, ...
. According to the ''
New York Times
''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid ...
'', Trafalgar correctly predicted the number of electoral votes each candidate would receive, but not which states would provide those votes.
2018 US midterm elections
Trafalgar was an outlier in polling in the
2018 Georgia gubernatorial election
The 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, concurrently with other statewide and local elections to elect the next governor of the U.S. state of Georgia. Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp won the election ...
, with its final poll showing
Brian Kemp
Brian Porter Kemp (born November 2, 1963) is an American businessman and politician serving as the 83rd governor of Georgia since January 2019. A member of the Republican Party, Kemp served as the 27th secretary of state of Georgia from 2010 to ...
leading by 12 points, a race he ultimately won by less than two points; every other poll showed a one or two point difference in the race.
2020 US presidential election
Before the
2020 United States presidential election, Trafalgar Group said that Trump would win the election, estimating that he would win Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Joe Biden won the election with 306 electoral votes and succeeded in winning Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. As to a number of swing states, Trafalgar's latest 2020 general election polls showed Trump winning Arizona by 3 points, Georgia by 4 points, Michigan by 3 points, Nevada by 1 point, and Pennsylvania by 2 points. However, Biden won Arizona by less than 1 point, Georgia by less than 1 point, Michigan by nearly 3 points, Nevada by approximately 2.5 points, and Pennsylvania by approximately 2 points.
2021 Georgia Senate runoff elections
Leading up to the 2021 runoff elections Trafalgar Group showed both incumbents
Kelly Loeffler
Kelly Lynn Loeffler (, ; born November 27, 1970) is an American businesswoman and politician who served as a United States senator for Georgia from 2020 to 2021. Loeffler was chief executive officer (CEO) of Bakkt, a subsidiary of commodity and ...
and
David Perdue
David Alfred Perdue Jr. (; born December 10, 1949) is an American politician and business executive who served as a United States senator from Georgia from 2015 to 2021. A member of the Republican Party, Perdue was an unsuccessful candidate fo ...
initially ahead of
Raphael Warnock
Raphael Gamaliel Warnock ( ; born July 23, 1969) is an American Baptist pastor and politician serving as the junior United States senator from Georgia since 2021. A member of the Democratic Party, he assumed office on January 20, 2021.
Since 2 ...
and
Jon Ossoff
Thomas Jonathan Ossoff ( ; born February 16, 1987) is an American politician serving as the senior United States senator from Georgia since 2021. A member of the Democratic Party, Ossoff was previously a documentary filmmaker and investigativ ...
yet by December they were both trailing a few points behind. On January 5, 2021, the day before the 2 Georgia Senate runoff elections, Trafalgar predicted that Ossoff was leading by 0.9 points over Perdue and that incumbent Loeffler was leading 1.3 points over
Raphael Warnock
Raphael Gamaliel Warnock ( ; born July 23, 1969) is an American Baptist pastor and politician serving as the junior United States senator from Georgia since 2021. A member of the Democratic Party, he assumed office on January 20, 2021.
Since 2 ...
. Ossoff won by a margin of 1.2 and Loeffler lost by a margin of 2.1 percent.
2021 gubernatorial elections
Aside from Fox News, Trafalgar had reported the most accurate poll in Virginia, predicting
Glenn Youngkin would win by 2, which he did by 1.9.
In New Jersey, Trafalgar had
Phil Murphy
Philip Dunton Murphy (born August 16, 1957) is an American financier, diplomat, and politician serving as the 56th governor of New Jersey since January 2018. A member of the Democratic Party, he served as the United States ambassador to Germa ...
winning the election but gave him the smallest margin of the polls, with only 4%, while Murphy won by 2.8%
2022 US midterm elections
Trafalgar's polling numbers were considerably off in the
2022 United States midterm elections
The 2022 United States elections were held on November 8, 2022, with the exception of absentee balloting. During this U.S. midterm election, which occurred during the first term of incumbent president Joe Biden of the Democratic Party (United S ...
.
Trafalgar's polls incorrectly suggested that Republican candidates such as
Mehmet Oz
Mehmet Cengiz Öz (; born June 11, 1960), known professionally as Dr. Oz (), is an Turkish American former professor of cardiothoracic surgery at Columbia University, television presenter, author and former political candidate.
The son of Tur ...
,
Herschel Walker,
Kari Lake
Kari Ann Lake ( ; born August 23, 1969) is an American former television news anchor who was the Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election.
Beginning her media career in the early 1990s, Lake was the anchor for the Phoeni ...
,
Tudor Dixon,
Adam Laxalt,
Blake Masters,
Christine Drazan, and
Tim Michels
Timothy James Michels (born August 7, 1962) is an American businessman who co-owns and co-manages Michels Corporation, a family-owned and operated construction company.
A member of the Republican Party, Michels was the party's unsuccessful no ...
would all win.
[https://www.newsweek.com/conservative-pollster-robert-cahaly-red-wave-predictions-failed-2022-midterm-election-1758789] Their polls also suggested that Republican candidates such as
Don Bolduc
Donald C. Bolduc (born May 8, 1962) is an American retired United States Army brigadier general. The Republican nominee in the 2022 United States Senate election in New Hampshire, he lost to incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan. Bolduc was also a R ...
,
Lee Zeldin
Lee Michael Zeldin (born January 30, 1980) is an American attorney, politician, and officer in the United States Army Reserve. A Republican, he has represented New York's 1st congressional district in the United States House of Representatives ...
,
Mark Ronchetti
Mark V. Ronchetti (born October 1, 1973) is an American political candidate and former KRQE meteorologist. A member of the Republican Party, he was a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020 and for governor of New Mexico in 2022.
Early life and m ...
,
Doug Mastriano,
Scott Jensen,
Heidi Ganahl,
Joe O'Dea
The 2022 United States Senate election in Colorado was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado. Incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet won reelection to a third full term ...
, and
Tiffany Smiley
The 2022 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the U.S. state, state of Washington (state), Washington. Incumbent Patty Murray of the Democratic Part ...
, were within striking distance, but some lost in landslides.
See also
* ''
Cahaly v. LaRosa''
References
External links
* {{official
Companies based in Atlanta
Polling companies
2016 United States presidential election