Tornado Outbreak Of January 12, 2023

An early-season tornado outbreak impacted the Southeastern United States on January 12, 2023. The result of a mid-level trough moving through, moisture and the presence of a strong low-level jet aided in the development of numerous severe and tornadic thunderstorms. Early in the outbreak, a strong EF2 tornado caused considerable damage in Winston County, Alabama, while another EF2 tornado struck just south of Greensboro. A destructive high-end EF2 tornado struck Selma, causing widespread damage and two injuries. The same storm produced a long-lived EF3 tornado that moved through or near Old Kingston, Titus, Equality, and Lake Martin, resulting in seven fatalities and several injuries in Autauga County alone. Another EF2 tornado from the storm struck areas in or around Five Points and Standing Rock before crossing into Georgia. After the dissipation of that tornado, nine more tornadoes, five of which were strong, caused heavy damage across west-central Georgia, especially in LaGrange, and Experiment, the second one of which was impacted by four tornadoes in the span of 10 minutes, including two that were rated EF2 and EF3 respectively. Another EF2 tornado from the storm caused major damage and another fatality in the Jackson Lake area as well; an indirect death from the tornado also occurred the following day. Elsewhere, other tornadoes caused damage in Sumter and Mobile counties in Alabama, as well as parts of Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, and the Carolinas. In all, 41 tornadoes were confirmed.

Meteorological synopsis

On January 11, the Storm Prediction Center outlined a level 1/Marginal risk across the Mid-South valid for the overnight and early morning hours. Although the environment was initially capped, conditions were expected to become more conducive for severe weather given the approach of a mid-level trough and a gradually moistening airmass. A more substantive threat for organized severe weather evolved on January 12 and the SPC outlined an level 3/Enhanced risk for 30% risk of damaging winds centered along central and eastern Alabama and northwestern portions of Georgia in their 0600 UTC outlook update. Here, numerical weather prediction models indicated the presence of 6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates and 500-1000 J/kg convective available potential energy (CAPE) values supportive of transient supercells and bowing segments. However, it also depicted only modest low-level moisture. As such, a large 5% risk for tornadoes was introduced for most of the lower Tennessee Valley, including portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, southern Tennessee, and northwestern South Carolina for at least a conditional threat of brief tornadoes.

As the day advanced, a more focused corridor for enhanced tornado potential became evident across central Alabama and northwestern Georgia, where effective storm-relative helicity – a measure of the potential for updrafts in supercells – topped 300 m²/s² and CAPE values rose into the 1,000-1,500 J/kg range. The SPC upped the threat for tornadoes to 10% in their 1300 UTC outlook as a result, although the possibility for strong tornadoes, above EF2 intensity, was not included in this outlook as damaging winds were still seen as the primary hazard. However, as the morning advanced, a defined line of severe thunderstorms with embedded supercell structures and multiple discrete supercells developed across the highlighted area. Multiple tornadoes, some of which were significant, touched down and caused extensive damage. Numerous PDS tornado warnings were issued for the towns of Heiberger, Selma, and Movico in Alabama as large and destructive tornadoes were reported. The same storm that hit Selma prompted tornado emergencies for Autauga, Elmore, Chilton, Coosa, and Tallapoosa counties before crossing the Alabama–Georgia border to continue northeast into Georgia. As the event unfolded, the SPC hatched part of the 10% risk for tornadoes in their 20:00 UTC outlook across east-central Alabama and western Georgia, indicating the possibility of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. The long-tracked supercell (originating in Louisiana) that produced the Selma tornado, as well as the deadly Autauga County tornado, produced more tornadoes as it progressed to the northeast; these included an EF2 tornado that crossed from Chambers County, Alabama into Troup County, Georgia, another EF2 tornado that caused severe damage in the southern part of LaGrange

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