''Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction'' is a book by

Philip E. Tetlock Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sc ...

and Dan Gardner released in 2015. It details findings from

The Good Judgment Project The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of ''Superforecasting'' and ''Expert Political Judgment''), decision scie ...

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The Economist ''The Economist'' is a British weekly newspaper printed in demitab format and published digitally. It focuses on current affairs, international business, politics, technology, and culture. Based in London, the newspaper is owned by The Econo ...

'' reports that

superforecaster A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasting, forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical meth ...

s are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from

, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. According to ''

The Wall Street Journal ''The Wall Street Journal'' is an American business-focused, international daily newspaper based in New York City, with international editions also available in Chinese and Japanese. The ''Journal'', along with its Asian editions, is published ...

'', ''Superforecasting'' is "The most important book on decision making since

Daniel Kahneman Daniel Kahneman (; he, דניאל כהנמן; born March 5, 1934) is an Israeli-American psychologist and economist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, as well as behavioral economics, for which he was award ...

Thinking, Fast and Slow ''Thinking, Fast and Slow'' is a 2011 book by psychologist Daniel Kahneman. The book's main thesis is a differentiation between two modes of thought: "System 1" is fast, instinctive and emotional; "System 2" is slower, more deliberative, and m ...

." The ''

Harvard Business Review ''Harvard Business Review'' (''HBR'') is a general management magazine published by Harvard Business Publishing, a wholly owned subsidiary of Harvard University. ''HBR'' is published six times a year and is headquartered in Brighton, Massach ...

'' paired it to the book '' How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking'' by

Jordan Ellenberg Jordan Stuart Ellenberg (born October 30, 1971) is an American mathematician who is a professor of mathematics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. His research involves arithmetic geometry. He is also an author of both fiction and non-ficti ...

References

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Daily catch-up: dart-throwing chimpanzees and how to predict the future , Comment , Voices , The Independent

SUPERFORECASTING , Kirkus Reviews

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Good Judgment® Open
American non-fiction books 2015 non-fiction books Forecasting Crown Publishing Group books {{science-book-stub

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References

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