The Super Bowl Indicator is a
spurious correlation that says that the
stock market
A stock market, equity market, or share market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers of stocks (also called shares), which represent ownership claims on businesses; these may include ''securities'' listed on a public stock exchange, as ...
's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the
Super Bowl
The Super Bowl is the annual final playoff game of the National Football League (NFL) to determine the league champion. It has served as the final game of every NFL season since 1966, replacing the NFL Championship Game. Since 2022, the game ...
of that year. It was "discovered" by
Leonard Koppett Leonard Koppett (September 15, 1923 – June 22, 2003) was an American sportswriter.
Born in Moscow as Leonard Kopeliovich, Koppett moved with his family from Moscow, Russia to the United States when he was five years old. They lived in The Bronx, ...
in 1978 when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the
American Football Conference
The American Football Conference (AFC) is one of the two conferences of the National Football League (NFL), the highest professional level of American football in the United States. The AFC and its counterpart, the National Football Conference ...
(AFC) wins, then it will be a
bear market
A market trend is a perceived tendency of financial markets to move in a particular direction over time. Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-fram ...
(or down market), but if a team from the
National Football Conference
The National Football Conference (NFC) is one of the two conferences of the National Football League (NFL), the highest professional level of American football in the United States. The NFC and its counterpart, the American Football Conference ...
(NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a
bull market
A market trend is a perceived tendency of financial markets to move in a particular direction over time. Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-fram ...
(up market).
As of January 2022, the predictor has been right 41 out of 55 games, a 75% success rate.
Without retrospective predictions, i.e. ''after'' its invention in 1978, it had been correct in 29 out of 43 games, a success rate of 67%.
Data
See also
*
January barometer
The January barometer is the hypothesis that stock market performance in January (particularly in the U.S.) predicts its performance for the rest of the year. So if the stock market rises in January, it is likely to continue to rise by the end of ...
*
Calendar effect
A calendar effect (or calendar anomaly) is any market anomaly, different behaviour of stock markets, or economic effect which appears to be related to the calendar, such as the day of the week, time of the month, time of the year, time within the ...
References
Business terms
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