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Super Bowl Indicator
The Super Bowl Indicator is a spurious correlation that says that the stock market's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. It was "discovered" by Leonard Koppett in 1978 when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market). As of January 2022, the predictor has been right 41 out of 55 games, a 75% success rate. Without retrospective predictions, i.e. ''after'' its invention in 1978, it had been correct in 29 out of 43 games, a success rate of 67%. Data See also *January barometer *Calendar effect A calendar effect (or calendar anomaly) is any market anomaly, different behaviour of stock markets, or e ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Spurious Correlation
In statistics, a spurious relationship or spurious correlation is a mathematical relationship in which two or more events or variables are associated but '' not'' causally related, due to either coincidence or the presence of a certain third, unseen factor (referred to as a "common response variable", "confounding factor", or "lurking variable"). Examples An example of a spurious relationship can be found in the time-series literature, where a spurious regression is a regression that provides misleading statistical evidence of a linear relationship between independent non-stationary variables. In fact, the non-stationarity may be due to the presence of a unit root in both variables. In particular, any two nominal economic variables are likely to be correlated with each other, even when neither has a causal effect on the other, because each equals a real variable times the price level, and the common presence of the price level in the two data series imparts correlation to them ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Stock Market
A stock market, equity market, or share market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers of stocks (also called shares), which represent ownership claims on businesses; these may include ''securities'' listed on a public stock exchange, as well as stock that is only traded privately, such as shares of private companies which are sold to investors through equity crowdfunding platforms. Investment is usually made with an investment strategy in mind. Size of the market The total market capitalization of all publicly traded securities worldwide rose from US$2.5 trillion in 1980 to US$93.7 trillion at the end of 2020. , there are 60 stock exchanges in the world. Of these, there are 16 exchanges with a market capitalization of $1 trillion or more, and they account for 87% of global market capitalization. Apart from the Australian Securities Exchange, these 16 exchanges are all in North America, Europe, or Asia. By country, the largest stock markets as of January 2022 are in th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Super Bowl
The Super Bowl is the annual final playoff game of the National Football League (NFL) to determine the league champion. It has served as the final game of every NFL season since 1966, replacing the NFL Championship Game. Since 2022, the game is played on the second Sunday in February. Prior Super Bowls were played on Sundays in early to mid-January from 1967 to 1978, late January from 1979 to 2003, and the first Sunday of February from 2004 to 2021. Winning teams are awarded the Vince Lombardi Trophy, named for the coach who won the first two Super Bowls. Due to the NFL restricting use of its "Super Bowl" trademark, it is frequently referred to as the "big game" or other generic terms by non-sponsoring corporations. The day the game is played is often referred to as "Super Bowl Sunday" or simply "Super Sunday". The game was created as part of a 1966 merger agreement between the NFL and the competing American Football League (AFL) to have their best teams compete for a champi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Leonard Koppett
Leonard Koppett (September 15, 1923 – June 22, 2003) was an American sportswriter. Born in Moscow as Leonard Kopeliovich, Koppett moved with his family from Moscow, Russia to the United States when he was five years old. They lived in The Bronx, New York, a block away from Yankee Stadium. Koppett served in the United States Army before graduating from Columbia University in 1946. He then worked as a reporter and columnist for the '' New York Herald Tribune'', the ''New York Post'', ''The New York Times'', the ''Peninsula Times Tribune'', and ''The Sporting News'', and authored 22 books on sports. He also published a number of magazine articles. Best known were his works on baseball: ''Concise History of Major League Baseball'' (1998, updated through 2004) and ''The Thinking Fan's Guide to Baseball'' (originally titled ''A Thinking Man's Guide to Baseball'', 1967, renamed for gender neutrality and updated several times through 2004) are considered definitive works on the gam ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
American Football Conference
The American Football Conference (AFC) is one of the two conferences of the National Football League (NFL), the highest professional level of American football in the United States. The AFC and its counterpart, the National Football Conference (NFC), each contain 16 teams with 4 divisions. Both conferences were created as part of the 1970 merger between the National Football League, and the American Football League (AFL). All ten of the AFL teams, and three NFL teams, became members of the new AFC, with the remaining thirteen NFL teams forming the NFC. A series of league expansions and division realignments have occurred since the merger, thus making the current total of 16 teams in each conference. The current AFC champions are the Cincinnati Bengals, who defeated the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2022 AFC Championship Game for their third conference championship, and their first since 1988. Teams Like the NFC, the conference has 16 teams organized into four divisions each wit ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bear Market
A market trend is a perceived tendency of financial markets to move in a particular direction over time. Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-frames. Traders attempt to identify market trends using technical analysis, a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches support and resistance levels, varying over time. A market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. Market terminology The terms "bull market" and "bear market" describe upward and downward market trends, respectively, and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities. The terms come from London's Exchange Alley in the early 18th century, where traders who engaged in naked short selling were called "bear-skin jobbers" because they sold a bear's skin (the s ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
National Football Conference
The National Football Conference (NFC) is one of the two conferences of the National Football League (NFL), the highest professional level of American football in the United States. The NFC and its counterpart, the American Football Conference (AFC), each contain 16 teams organized into 4 divisions. Both conferences were created as part of the 1970 NFL merger with the rival American Football League (AFL), with all ten of the former AFL teams and three NFL teams forming the AFC while the remaining thirteen NFL clubs formed the NFC. A series of league expansions and division realignments have occurred since the merger, thus making the total of 16 clubs in each conference. The defending NFC champions are the Los Angeles Rams, who defeated the San Francisco 49ers in the 2021 NFC Championship Game for their fifth conference championship. Teams Since 2002, like the AFC, the NFC has 16 teams that organized into four divisions each with four teams: East, North, South, and West. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bull Market
A market trend is a perceived tendency of financial markets to move in a particular direction over time. Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-frames. Traders attempt to identify market trends using technical analysis, a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches support and resistance levels, varying over time. A market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. Market terminology The terms "bull market" and "bear market" describe upward and downward market trends, respectively, and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities. The terms come from London's Exchange Alley in the early 18th century, where traders who engaged in naked short selling were called "bear-skin jobbers" because they sold a bear's skin (the s ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
January Barometer
The January barometer is the hypothesis that stock market performance in January (particularly in the U.S.) predicts its performance for the rest of the year. So if the stock market rises in January, it is likely to continue to rise by the end of December. The January barometer was first mentioned by Yale Hirsch in 1972. Historically, if the S&P 500 goes up in January, the trend will follow for the rest of the year. Conversely if the S&P falls in January, then it will fall for the rest of the year. From 1950 till 1984 both positive and negative prediction had a certainty of about 70% and 90% respectively with 75% in total. After 1985 however, the negative predictive power had been reduced to 50%, or in other words, no predictive power at all.Christian FeldeA deep dive into the January Barometer/ref> See also *January effect *Super Bowl indicator * Cabañuelas, analyzing the weather of January to predict the rest of the year. Part of Hispanic weather lore Weather lore is the b ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Calendar Effect
A calendar effect (or calendar anomaly) is any market anomaly, different behaviour of stock markets, or economic effect which appears to be related to the calendar, such as the day of the week, time of the month, time of the year, time within the U.S. presidential cycle, decade within the century, etc... Some people believe that if they do exist, it is possible to use market timing. Seasonal patterns are not confined to prices; many other systems can exhibit the same kind of calendar effect. However, the term is most often used in an economic context. Causes Market prices are often subject to seasonal tendencies because the availability and demand for an item is not constant throughout the year. For example, natural gas prices often rise in the winter because that commodity is in demand as a heating fuel. In the summer, when the demand for heat is lower, prices typically fall. Examples Notable calendar effects include: * Sell in May principle (or Halloween indicator) * Januar ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
