The Referendum Party was a
Eurosceptic,
single-issue
Single-issue politics involves political campaigning or political support based on one essential policy area or idea.
Political expression
One weakness of such an approach is that effective political parties are usually coalitions of faction ...
political party that was active in the
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and North ...
from 1994 to 1997. The party's sole objective was for a
referendum
A referendum (plural: referendums or less commonly referenda) is a direct vote by the electorate on a proposal, law, or political issue. This is in contrast to an issue being voted on by a representative. This may result in the adoption of a ...
to be held on the nature of the UK's membership of the
European Union
The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been des ...
(EU). Specifically, it called for a referendum on whether the British electorate wanted to be part of a
federal European state or to revert to being a sovereign nation that was part of a European free-trade bloc without wider political functions.
The Referendum Party was founded by the Anglo-French multi-millionaire businessman and politician
James Goldsmith
Sir James Michael Goldsmith (26 February 1933 – 18 July 1997) was a French-British financier, tycoon''Billionaire: The Life and Times of Sir James Goldsmith'' by Ivan Fallon and politician who was a member of the Goldsmith family.
His cont ...
in November 1994. A Eurosceptic who had previously had close links to the UK's governing
Conservative Party
The Conservative Party is a name used by many political parties around the world. These political parties are generally right-wing though their exact ideologies can range from center-right to far-right.
Political parties called The Conservative P ...
, he was also an elected
Member of the European Parliament
A Member of the European Parliament (MEP) is a person who has been elected to serve as a popular representative in the European Parliament.
When the European Parliament (then known as the Common Assembly of the ECSC) first met in 1952, its ...
for the
Movement for France
The Movement for France (french: Mouvement pour la France, MPF; ) was a conservative, soft Eurosceptic and Gaullist French political party, founded on 20 November 1994, with a marked regional stronghold in the Vendée. It was led by Philippe de ...
party. He used his financial resources and contacts to promote the new venture, in which he was assisted by other former Conservatives. The party's structure was centralised and hierarchical, giving Goldsmith near-total control over its operations. Although not offering party membership, it claimed to have 160,000 registered "supporters", a number that was probably an exaggeration. The party gained a
Member of Parliament
A member of parliament (MP) is the representative in parliament of the people who live in their electoral district. In many countries with bicameral parliaments, this term refers only to members of the lower house since upper house members of ...
(MP) for two weeks in 1997, when
George Gardiner, the MP for
Reigate
Reigate ( ) is a town status in the United Kingdom, town in Surrey, England, around south of central London. The settlement is recorded in Domesday Book in 1086 as ''Cherchefelle'' and first appears with its modern name in the 1190s. The earlie ...
, defected to it from the Conservatives shortly before that year's general election.
In the build-up to the
May 1997 general election, the Referendum Party spent more on press advertising than either the incumbent Conservatives or their main rival, the
Labour Party. It stood candidates in 547 of the 659 constituencies, more than any
minor party
A minor party is a political party that plays a smaller (in some cases much smaller, even insignificant in comparison) role than a major party in a country's politics and elections. The difference between minor and major parties can be so great ...
had ever fielded in a UK election. Ultimately the party gained 811,827 votes, representing 2.6% of the national total; it failed to win any seats in the
House of Commons
The House of Commons is the name for the elected lower house of the bicameral parliaments of the United Kingdom and Canada. In both of these countries, the Commons holds much more legislative power than the nominally upper house of parliament. ...
. Support was strongest in southern and eastern England, and weakest in inner London, northern England, and Scotland. Following the election,
psephologists
Psephology (; from Greek el, ψῆφος, psephos, pebble, label=none) or political analysis is a branch of political science, the "quantitative analysis of elections and balloting". As such, psephology attempts to explain elections using the ...
argued that the impact of the Referendum Party deprived Conservative candidates of victory in somewhere between four and sixteen parliamentary seats. In the months following the election, the party renamed itself the Referendum Movement. Goldsmith died in July 1997, and the party disbanded shortly afterward. Some of its supporters reformed as a Eurosceptic
pressure group
Advocacy groups, also known as interest groups, special interest groups, lobbying groups or pressure groups use various forms of advocacy in order to influence public opinion and ultimately policy. They play an important role in the develop ...
called the
Democracy Movement
The Democracy Movement (DM) is a crossparty Eurosceptic pressure group in the UK with over 320,000 registered supporters and 160 local branches.
History
The Democracy Movement was founded in 1998 through a merger of the Referendum Movement, a cro ...
while many others joined Eurosceptic political parties like the
UK Independence Party
The UK Independence Party (UKIP; ) is a Eurosceptic, right-wing populist political party in the United Kingdom. The party reached its greatest level of success in the mid-2010s, when it gained two members of Parliament and was the largest par ...
and the
Democratic Party Democratic Party most often refers to:
*Democratic Party (United States)
Democratic Party and similar terms may also refer to:
Active parties Africa
*Botswana Democratic Party
*Democratic Party of Equatorial Guinea
*Gabonese Democratic Party
*Demo ...
.
Formation
Background and ideology
The United Kingdom joined the
European Communities
The European Communities (EC) were three international organizations that were governed by the same set of institutions. These were the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC or Euratom), and the ...
(EC) in 1973. Following the
Maastricht Treaty
The Treaty on European Union, commonly known as the Maastricht Treaty, is the foundation treaty of the European Union (EU). Concluded in 1992 between the then-twelve member states of the European Communities, it announced "a new stage in the ...
in 1993 the EC became the
European Union
The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been des ...
(EU). The EU differed from the EC in having greater political authority, resulting in some reduction of the sovereignty of its member-states. The UK's ratification of the treaty in 1992, followed by its passing of the
European Communities (Finance) Act
The European Communities (EC) were three international organizations that were governed by the same set of institutions. These were the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC or Euratom), and the ...
in 1994–95, generated much controversy and infighting within the UK's
Conservative Party
The Conservative Party is a name used by many political parties around the world. These political parties are generally right-wing though their exact ideologies can range from center-right to far-right.
Political parties called The Conservative P ...
, which was then in government under Prime Minister
John Major
Sir John Major (born 29 March 1943) is a British former politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party (UK), Leader of the Conservative Party from 1990 to 1997, and as Member of Parliament ...
. This caused considerable damage to Major's administration, which was increasingly unpopular among the British population. Various British newspapers, among them ''
The Sun'', ''
The Daily Telegraph
''The Daily Telegraph'', known online and elsewhere as ''The Telegraph'', is a national British daily broadsheet newspaper published in London by Telegraph Media Group and distributed across the United Kingdom and internationally.
It was fo ...
'' and ''
The Times
''The Times'' is a British daily national newspaper based in London. It began in 1785 under the title ''The Daily Universal Register'', adopting its current name on 1 January 1788. ''The Times'' and its sister paper ''The Sunday Times'' (fou ...
'', had adopted a consistently Eurosceptic position. Opinion polls suggested growing opposition to aspects of the EU in the UK. More widely, the acceleration of the EU's integration process had resulted in the growth of Eurosceptic parties across many of its member states.
The Anglo-French businessman
James Goldsmith
Sir James Michael Goldsmith (26 February 1933 – 18 July 1997) was a French-British financier, tycoon''Billionaire: The Life and Times of Sir James Goldsmith'' by Ivan Fallon and politician who was a member of the Goldsmith family.
His cont ...
announced the formation of the Referendum Party on 27 November 1994.
Goldsmith had once been a strong supporter of the EC but had grown disenchanted with it during the early 1990s, becoming particularly concerned that it was forming into a
superstate
A superstate is defined as "a large and powerful state formed when several smaller countries unite", or "A large and powerful state formed from a federation or union of nations", or "a hybrid form of polity that combines features of
ancient emp ...
governed by centralised institutions in
Brussels
Brussels (french: Bruxelles or ; nl, Brussel ), officially the Brussels-Capital Region (All text and all but one graphic show the English name as Brussels-Capital Region.) (french: link=no, Région de Bruxelles-Capitale; nl, link=no, Bruss ...
. He opposed the Maastricht Treaty, believing that it resulted in increased German dominance in Europe. As an
economic protectionist, he was also critical of the EU's signing of the
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) is a legal agreement between many countries, whose overall purpose was to promote international trade by reducing or eliminating trade barriers such as tariffs or quotas. According to its pre ...
, believing that global free trade would damage both the EU's economy and his own business interests.
Goldsmith had prior political experience, having been elected as a
Member of the European Parliament
A Member of the European Parliament (MEP) is a person who has been elected to serve as a popular representative in the European Parliament.
When the European Parliament (then known as the Common Assembly of the ECSC) first met in 1952, its ...
(MEP) in France as part of the Eurosceptic
Movement for France
The Movement for France (french: Mouvement pour la France, MPF; ) was a conservative, soft Eurosceptic and Gaullist French political party, founded on 20 November 1994, with a marked regional stronghold in the Vendée. It was led by Philippe de ...
coalition
in June 1994. Although
his father had been a Member of Parliament representing Britain's Conservative Party, and he had personally had a close relationship to the party when it was led by
Margaret Thatcher
Margaret Hilda Thatcher, Baroness Thatcher (; 13 October 19258 April 2013) was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1979 to 1990 and Leader of the Conservative Party (UK), Leader of the Conservative Party from 1975 to 1990. S ...
, Goldsmith wanted to launch his campaign independently of the Conservatives, hoping that it could draw on cross-party concerns about the direction of the EU. At the time of the party's formation, Goldsmith had an estimated personal wealth of
£800 million, and promised to put £20 million into the party. He pledged to spend at least £10 million on campaigning for the next general election, to ensure that his party was funded to the same extent as the country's larger political parties. Goldsmith's intervention in British politics has been compared with that of the multi-millionaires
Ross Perot
Henry Ross Perot (; June 27, 1930 – July 9, 2019) was an American business magnate, billionaire, politician and philanthropist. He was the founder and chief executive officer of Electronic Data Systems and Perot Systems. He ran an inde ...
in the United States and
Silvio Berlusconi
Silvio Berlusconi ( ; ; born 29 September 1936) is an Italian media tycoon and politician who served as Prime Minister of Italy in four governments from 1994 to 1995, 2001 to 2006 and 2008 to 2011. He was a member of the Chamber of Deputies ...
in Italy.
According to the political scientists
Matthew Goodwin
Matthew James Goodwin (born 17 December 1981) is a British academic who is Professor of Politics in the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Kent. he is a commisioner of the Social Mobility Commission.
Early life ...
and Robert Ford, the Referendum Party was "a classic
single-issue
Single-issue politics involves political campaigning or political support based on one essential policy area or idea.
Political expression
One weakness of such an approach is that effective political parties are usually coalitions of faction ...
party". Similarly, the political scientists Neil Carter, Mark Evans, Keith Alderman, and Simon Gorham described it as a "single-issue movement" that had attributes of both a
political party
A political party is an organization that coordinates candidates to compete in a particular country's elections. It is common for the members of a party to hold similar ideas about politics, and parties may promote specific political ideology ...
and a
pressure group
Advocacy groups, also known as interest groups, special interest groups, lobbying groups or pressure groups use various forms of advocacy in order to influence public opinion and ultimately policy. They play an important role in the develop ...
. While it took part in elections, it focused on a single issue and stated that if it got
Members of Parliament
A member of parliament (MP) is the representative in parliament of the people who live in their electoral district. In many countries with bicameral parliaments, this term refers only to members of the lower house since upper house members of ...
(MP) elected their sole aim would be to secure a referendum. It also claimed that on achieving its main aim, the party would disband, unlike most political parties; as Goldsmith put in his October 1995 "Statement of Aims": "This is a single-issue biodegradable party which will be dissolved once we have achieved our aim."
The referendum question which the party proposed was announced on 28 November 1996: "Do you want the United Kingdom to be part of a federal Europe or do you want the United Kingdom to return to an association of sovereign nations that are part of a common trading market?"
[Andrew Pierce, "Goldsmith chooses his words for big question on Europe", ''The Times'', London, 28 November 1996, p. 11.] The political scientists
David Butler and
Dennis Kavanagh noted that this question was often mocked for its "unrealistic ambiguity", and some journalists referred to Goldsmith's venture as the "Referendum Only Party". Goldsmith did not position the party as explicitly opposed to the EU, instead stating that it was "wholly agnostic" about EU membership and just wanted to secure a referendum on the issue. The wording of the party's main question led one group of political scientists to note that it "clearly revealed Goldsmith's Eurosceptic colours" and that the wider pronouncements of the party became increasingly Eurosceptic as time went on.
Establishment and growth
In its first year, the Referendum Party had little established organisation and largely remained a concept with limited concrete presence. Goldsmith's finances had allowed its appearance to be accompanied with mass publicity but it lacked the standard machinery of a political party, such as a mass membership or politically experienced personnel. To counter this problem, Goldsmith sought to create a sophisticated administrative centre and to secure the expertise to carry out a political campaign, establishing his headquarters in London. By October 1995, the party had established a hierarchical structure consisting of three tiers: the centre, region and constituency. Operating the centre was Goldsmith and a cabinet whose membership included
Lord McAlpine
Robert Alistair McAlpine, Baron McAlpine of West Green (14 May 1942 – 17 January 2014) was a British businessman, politician and author who was an advisor to Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
McAlpine was descended from the McAlpine baronets ...
, who was a former treasurer of the Conservative Party, and two former members of the
Conservative Central Office
The Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ), formerly known as Conservative Central Office (CCO), is the headquarters of the British Conservative Party, housing its central staff and committee members, including campaign coordinators and manag ...
staff. The centre had around 50 staff, who relayed Goldsmith's instructions through to the ten regional co-ordinators, who in turn transmitted them to the prospective candidates in the constituencies. This top-down and undemocratic structure concentrated decision making with Goldsmith and the centre and provided little autonomy for the regions and constituencies, although this was deemed necessary to ensure efficiency in its campaign.
Rather than having members who paid a joining fee, the Referendum Party had "supporters" who could voluntarily donate money if they wished. By February 1997, the party claimed that it had 160,000 registered supporters, although some of these individuals had only requested information about it and had not actively registered as "supporters". The party issued a newspaper, ''News from the Referendum Party'', to attract wider attention to its aims and broaden its support. One issue, published in February 1996, was delivered to 24 million households at an estimated cost of £2 million.
The party also sought to attract the support of prominent figures from business, the arts, and academia, inviting them to its major events. In October 1996, it held a national conference in
Brighton
Brighton () is a seaside resort and one of the two main areas of the City of Brighton and Hove in the county of East Sussex, England. It is located south of London.
Archaeological evidence of settlement in the area dates back to the Bronze A ...
, in which forty speakers addressed an audience of 5,000. Among the speakers were the actor
Edward Fox, the ecologist
David Bellamy
David James Bellamy (18 January 1933 – 11 December 2019) was an English botanist, television presenter, author and environmental campaigner.
Early and personal life
Bellamy was born in London to parents Winifred May (née Green) and Thoma ...
, the politician
George Thomas, and the zookeeper
John Aspinall. The conference had been staged largely to impress the media, at a cost of £750,000, although unsympathetic media outlets were reportedly banned from attending. By the time of the conference, the party was increasingly reflecting its Eurosceptic intentions, particularly with the use of slogans like "No Surrender to Brussels".
Early supporters fell largely into three types: committed Eurosceptics, disaffected Conservatives, and those who—though not necessarily being Eurosceptic—strongly believed that the British population deserved a referendum on EU membership. At the time the new party was largely seen as a threat to the governing Conservative Party, which was experiencing high levels of mid-term unpopularity. In September 1995, the party began recruiting candidates to contest the next general election.
Goldsmith was also able to obtain celebrity endorsements. Despite Goldsmith's longstanding criticism of the mainstream media—he had previously stated that "reporting in England is a load of filth"—the party used its finances to promote its message in the media. It hired
Ian Beaumont, who had formerly been the press officer to Thatcher's government, to work for it. The party paid for many full-page and some double-page advertisement in the UK's national newspapers, as well as two cinema advertisements. This generated criticism from those who accused it of "cheque-book politics" in the manner of Perot in the US. This financial backing and infrastructure contrasted with that of another single-issue Eurosceptic Party, the
UK Independence Party
The UK Independence Party (UKIP; ) is a Eurosceptic, right-wing populist political party in the United Kingdom. The party reached its greatest level of success in the mid-2010s, when it gained two members of Parliament and was the largest par ...
(UKIP), which was operating with little finances and a skeleton organisation at the time.
Although the party had faced criticism and mockery, it gained much media exposure.
Two months before the 1997 election, the party gained an MP in the
House of Commons
The House of Commons is the name for the elected lower house of the bicameral parliaments of the United Kingdom and Canada. In both of these countries, the Commons holds much more legislative power than the nominally upper house of parliament. ...
when
George Gardiner, the Conservative MP for
Reigate
Reigate ( ) is a town status in the United Kingdom, town in Surrey, England, around south of central London. The settlement is recorded in Domesday Book in 1086 as ''Cherchefelle'' and first appears with its modern name in the 1190s. The earlie ...
, switched allegiance to the Referendum Party after his local Conservative branch deselected him due to critical comments that he had made about Major.
1997 general election
By the time of the
1997 general election, polls suggested that Eurosceptic sentiment was running high in the UK, and the question of the country's ongoing membership of the EU was a topic of regular discussion in the media. Much of this press coverage took a negative stance toward the EU, with mainstream newspapers like the ''
Daily Mail
The ''Daily Mail'' is a British daily middle-market tabloid newspaper and news websitePeter Wilb"Paul Dacre of the Daily Mail: The man who hates liberal Britain", ''New Statesman'', 19 December 2013 (online version: 2 January 2014) publish ...
'', ''The Daily Telegraph'' and ''The Times'' promoting Eurosceptic sentiment. Such debates were influenced by the UK's recent signing of the Maastricht Treaty and the looming possibility that the country would adopt the
euro
The euro ( symbol: €; code: EUR) is the official currency of 19 out of the member states of the European Union (EU). This group of states is known as the eurozone or, officially, the euro area, and includes about 340 million citizens . ...
currency.
Campaign
The Referendum Party did not contest any of the
by-election
A by-election, also known as a special election in the United States and the Philippines, a bye-election in Ireland, a bypoll in India, or a Zimni election (Urdu: ضمنی انتخاب, supplementary election) in Pakistan, is an election used to f ...
s in 1996 and 1997. For the 1997 general election, it hurried its selection of candidates, who had only one interview—and no background checks or screening—before acceptance. The funding for each candidate's official campaign was supplied entirely by the party centre. Candidates were brought to a training day at a
Manchester
Manchester () is a city in Greater Manchester, England. It had a population of 552,000 in 2021. It is bordered by the Cheshire Plain to the south, the Pennines to the north and east, and the neighbouring city of Salford to the west. The t ...
hotel in February 1997, where they were presented with several hours of speeches and given a handbook. Many felt that the event had been a public relations exercise rather than a concerted effort to train candidates.
Goldsmith's party was the biggest spender on press advertising in the 1997 campaign; it spent three times as much as the Conservatives and five times as much as Labour on press adverts. Its media profile greatly eclipsed that of UKIP. Goldsmith also used his financial resources to deliver a
videocassette
Videotape is magnetic tape used for storing video and usually sound in addition. Information stored can be in the form of either an analog or digital signal. Videotape is used in both video tape recorders (VTRs) and, more commonly, videocassette ...
to five million UK households in March 1997. This was a novel strategy in British politics, and was conceived as a way of reaching the electorate while bypassing the mass media. The packaging of the videocassette did not specify that it was produced by the Referendum Party but rather carried several slogans: "The most important video you'll ever watch", "The story the politicians don't want you to hear", and "If you care about Britain, please pass this video on." The 12-minute film, presented by the former ''
That's Life!
''That's Life!'' was a satirical TV consumer affairs programme on the BBC, at its height regularly reaching audiences of fifteen to twenty million, and receiving 10–15,000 letters a week.
The series broadcast on BBC1 for twenty-one years, ...
'' presenter
Gavin Campbell, warned of a coming "federal European super-state". In his analysis of the video, scholar David Hass argued that the film was deliberately designed to elicit fear in the viewer, something achieved through "eerie sound effects", the image of a blue stain spreading across a map of Europe, and slow-motion shots of German Chancellor
Helmut Kohl
Helmut Josef Michael Kohl (; 3 April 1930 – 16 June 2017) was a German politician who served as Chancellor of Germany from 1982 to 1998 and Leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) from 1973 to 1998. Kohl's 16-year tenure is the longes ...
striding towards the screen. In Hass' view, the film "manifestly reduced that complex issue of Europe to the lowest common denominator, and aimed to shock."
The
BBC #REDIRECT BBC #REDIRECT BBC
Here i going to introduce about the best teacher of my life b BALAJI sir. He is the precious gift that I got befor 2yrs . How has helped and thought all the concept and made my success in the 10th board exam. ...
...
because it was fielding over 50 candidates. The party insisted that it should have three such broadcasts, but the BBC claimed that this was disproportionate for a smaller, new party with no elected representation. The party took the issue to the
, which sided with the BBC. The broadcast featured Goldsmith talking directly to the camera, arguing for a referendum. Goldsmith implied that the BBC had a pro-EU agenda by referring to it as the "Brussels News Corporation", also claiming that there was a "conspiracy of silence" negatively impacting the coverage received by his party.
In 1996, both the Conservative and Labour Parties committed to the idea that they would require a referendum on any proposed
had already committed to this idea. It is difficult to quantify what role the Referendum Party had on the adoption of this position. Goldsmith condemned the Conservatives' pledge as an "empty gesture". Concerned that they would lose votes to the Referendum Party, many in the Conservative Party were pressing Major to enter talks with Goldsmith, although the Prime Minister refused to engage in any formal dialogue. The electoral threat posed by Goldsmith's party was taken seriously among the Conservatives, with senior party figures like Major,
launching vitriolic and often personal criticisms of Goldsmith and his group. Hurd declared that "the government's policy must not be put at the mercy of millionaires who play with British politics as a hobby or as a boost to newspaper sales".
In the general election, candidates for the Referendum Party stood in 547 constituencies, the most that any minor party had ever fielded in a UK election. None of these candidates were in Northern Ireland. This was because Goldsmith had made an agreement with Northern Ireland's
that he would not field any candidates against them if their one MEP joined his
grouping in the European Parliament, something that ensured that the grouping remained large enough to retain its Parliamentary funding. It also avoided putting up candidates in constituencies where the leading candidate (65 of them Conservatives, 26 Labour and 2 Liberal Democrats) was considered sympathetic to the Referendum Party's call for a referendum. Goldsmith appeared to acknowledge that it was unlikely to win any of the contested seats, stating that the party's success would be "judged solely by its total number of votes". The party officially launched its electoral campaign on 9 April 1997 at
, where Goldsmith sought to whip up Eurosceptic sentiment among fishermen who were angry with the restrictions imposed by EU fishing quotas.
In the election, which took place on 1 May 1997, the Referendum Party polled 811,827 votes. This represented 2.6% of the national total, and the party averaged 3.1% in the seats which it contested. 42 of the party's candidates gained over 5% of the vote and thus saw the return of their deposits, which were then priced at £500 each; 505 deposits were lost.
who received 8% of the vote. Much media attention was focused on the seat of
, where Goldsmith had stood as the Referendum candidate against incumbent Conservative MP
; Goldsmith secured 3.5% of the local vote and the seat was won by the Labour candidate. Although it failed to win any seats, the party exhibited the strongest performance of a minor party in recent UK political history. Support had been strongest in the south and east of England, in particular in areas with high elderly populations and high rates of agricultural employment. Support for the party was considerably weaker in Inner London, Northern England, and Scotland; it secured only 1.1% of the Scottish vote. This may have reflected greater pro-EU sentiment in Scotland or a perception that the Referendum Party's Euroscepticism was a form of
. The Referendum Party had proved more electorally successful than its Eurosceptic rival, UKIP, which averaged 1.2% of the vote in the 194 constituencies that it contested.
The general election resulted in a victory for
's Labour Party, which adopted a pro-EU stance. Labour's victory was considered a
, thus making the Referendum Party's role in the election fairly irrelevant. The Conservatives had gained only 30.7% of the vote, a drop from the 41.9% they had attained in 1992 and the lowest vote share that they had received since the establishment of modern British party politics in 1832. Their representation in the
fell by over half, from 343 to 165; their lowest representation in the House since 1906. The reasons for their electoral decline were many and the impact of the Referendum Party was not a major factor.
The Referendum Party nevertheless may have cost the Conservatives certain seats. Many Conservatives themselves believed that this was the case. As noted by Anthony Heath, Roger Jowell, Bridget Taylor, and Katarina Thomson from their analysis of polling data, "voters for the Referendum Party were certainly not a cross-section of the electorate. They were predominantly people who had voted Conservative (and, to a lesser extent, Liberal Democrat) in 1992. Hardly anyone who had voted Labour in 1992 supported Goldsmith's party." Their evidence indicated that just under two-thirds of those who voted for the Referendum Party in 1997 had voted for the Conservatives in 1992, although the analysis also suggested that many of these people were dissatisfied with the Conservative government and would not have voted for them even had the Referendum Party not existed. Heath ''et al'' noted that "voters for the Referendum Party were remarkably Eurosceptic but were unremarkable in most other respects. They show no sign of being right-wing on the economic issues of the left-right dimension and they were not consistently right-wing ideologues." Those who voted for the party held a diversity of ideological positions, the only shared factor being their Euroscepticism.
According to analysis by the political scientist
, "only a handful of the Conservatives' losses of seats can be blamed on the intervention of the Referendum Party". Their estimate was that only four seats would have been Conservative without the Referendum Party standing. For this reason, Butler and Kavanagh stated that the Referendum Party "had only a limited effect on the Conservatives' fortunes". On employing aggregate constituency data, Ian McAllister and Donley T. Studlar disagreed, arguing that the Referendum Party had a greater impact on the Conservatives than previous research suggested. They argued that the Referendum Party cost the Conservatives an average of 3.4% of the vote. Their analysis further suggested that there were 16 seats where the involvement of the Referendum Party directly cost the Conservative candidate their victory, and a further three where it was a contributing factor to the Conservatives' failure.
Immediately after the election, the Referendum Party renamed itself the Referendum Movement. Goldsmith had been suffering from
, and had been warned that competing in the election would shorten his life. He died in
, Spain, on 18 July 1997, and the party disbanded shortly afterwards. Some of its members transformed into the
closely associated with the former Conservative supporter and multi-millionaire businessman
. The Eurosceptic cause was weakened; with Blair's firmly pro-EU government in power, by 1998 the possibility of a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU was considered as distant as it had been in 1995.
Under the direction of UKIP's leader
began recruiting former Referendum Party members to their own group; according to Farage, around 160 of the Referendum Party's candidates joined UKIP. Among those who did so was
, who later became one of UKIP's first MEPs. Other former members of the Referendum Party joined the
, a small Eurosceptic group founded in 1998.
, one candidate stood under the banner of the now-defunct "Referendum Party"; they came eleventh, with 57 votes. In the
, much of the support that had previously gone to the Referendum Party went not to UKIP but to the Conservatives, whose leader
, one of the Referendum Party's candidates in the 1997 general election, was elected as the
.
, another of the Brexit Party's MEPs, has compared the Brexit Party to the Referendum Party, being a "united and diverse group of people from different political backgrounds".