Next Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election

The 2023 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election was held following the resignation of Steven Del Duca on June 2, 2022, after the party won only 8 seats and failed again to gain official party status in the general election. The leadership votes were held between November 25–26, with the ballots counted and announced on December 2, with Bonnie Crombie winning on the third ballot.

Background

In the 2022 general election, the Ontario Liberal Party saw a modest increase in support over their 2018 result, finishing second in the popular vote. However, the party won only 8 seats, once again falling short of official party status. On the night of the election, Del Duca, who had failed to win back his own riding of Vaughan—Woodbridge, announced his resignation as party leader, stating that a leadership race would be organized to take place "as soon as is reasonable".

On January 5, 2023, the party released a full report of their campaign debrief following the 2022 election. One of the main recommendations was for the party to conduct a review of the leadership election process. On January 9, 2023, interim leader John Fraser announced that the party would proceed with consultations looking at whether there should be changes to delegated convention rules.

In March 2023, at the party's Annual General Meeting, a constitutional amendment was approved which changed the leadership election process from a delegated leadership convention to a weighted One Member One Vote system.

Rules and procedures

Under the procedure outlined by the party's constitution, all members of the Ontario Liberal Party will be eligible to vote directly for leader by preferential ballot as long as they are members in good standing as of September 11, 2023.

Votes will be weighted, with each provincial electoral district being allocated 100 points, and with points in a district allocated in proportion to each candidate by the number of first preference votes received. Each of the party's recognized student clubs will be allocated 50 points, and each of the party's recognized women's clubs will be allocated 5 points. Members were able to vote in person on November 25-26th 2023, with some in sprawling northern and rural ridings designated to by mail.

Ballots will be counted on December 2, 2023. When the ballots are counted, if no candidate receives 50 per cent of the points, the lowest-ranked candidate will be dropped from the next round, with their second choice votes distributed to the remaining candidates. This will continue until a candidate receives 50 per cent of the vote.

This will mark the first time that this weighted direct vote system will be used in an Ontario Liberal Party leadership election, as the change was adopted at the party's annual general meeting in March 2023.

Timeline

*June 2, 2022 - Ontario general election held, resulting in a second consecutive majority PC government. The Liberals win 8 seats, falling short of official party status. Steven Del Duca, who failed to win his own seat, announces his resignation in his concession speech.
*July 25, 2022 - John Fraser, who previously served as interim leader from 2018 until 2020, is unanimously selected by the Ontario Liberal caucus to serve as interim leader.
*August 3, 2022 - Party executive formally ratifies selection of Fraser as interim leader.
*March 3–5, 2023 - Ontario Liberal Party Annual General Meeting approves a constitutional amendment changing the leadership election procedure from a delegated leadership convention to a One Member One Vote process. A new party executive is elected which will set the rules and timeline for the leadership election.
*April 16, 2023 - Party executive announces timeline and fee schedule for the election.
*May 8, 2023 - Nathaniel Erskine-Smith announces his candidacy.
*May 28, 2023 - Ted Hsu announces his candidacy.
*June 3, 2023 - Yasir Naqvi announces his candidacy.
*June 14, 2023 - Bonnie Crombie announces her candidacy.
*July 4, 2023 - Adil Shamji announces his candidacy.
*July 8, 2023 - OLP President Kathryn McGarry releases the information regarding the Leadership Convention via email to members.
*August 15, 2023 - Party announced the five debates and locations.
*September 5, 2023 - Candidate registration deadline.
*September 11, 2023 - Deadline to join the Ontario Liberal Party and be eligible to vote in the leadership election as party member.
*September 14, 2023 - First official leadership debate held in Thunder Bay.
*September 20, 2023 - Unofficial leadership debate held at Toronto Metropolitan University Democracy Forum, hosted by the Toronto Star.
*September 28, 2023 - Adil Shamji drops out of the leadership race, endorses Bonnie Crombie.
*October 1, 2023 - Second official leadership debate held in Stratford.
*October 24, 2023 - Third official leadership debate held in Toronto.
*November 8, 2023 - Fourth official leadership debate held in Ottawa.
*November 15, 2023 - Leadership debate held on The Agenda with Steve Paikin, hosted by TVO, the first episode of The Agenda since the conclusion of the TVO Strike.
*November 19, 2023 - Fifth and last official leadership debate held in Brampton.
*November 25–26, 2023 - Ranked ballots cast in-person by party members.
*December 2, 2023 - Ballots counted, with the new leader announced the same day.
*December 2, 2023 - At 4:34 PM, Bonnie Crombie was declared the new leader of the Ontario Liberal Party by President Kathryn McGarry and MPP Stephen Blais.

Campaign

The party formally announced the start of the leadership election process on April 16, 2023, announcing the timeline, candidate registration requirements and fee schedule for the election.

There had been debate on the timing of the election, with campaigns that were actively exploring bids pushing for an earlier date in 2023, and others who wanted to delay the contest until late 2023 or early 2024, in the hopes of encouraging more candidates to join the race. In the end the party selected November 25–26 as the voting days with a new leader being announced on December 2, 2023.

Nate Erskine-Smith was the first to officially announce and register as a candidate, doing so on May 8, 2023. He was followed by Ted Hsu and Yasir Naqvi, who announced with a week of each other at the end of May/beginning of June, and who, like Erskine-Smith, had been actively organizing and campaigning in the preceding months.

Bonnie Crombie announced her candidacy on June 14, this was after announcing an exploratory committee in May and the Ford government announcing legislation to dissolve the Regional Municipality of Peel and make Mississauga a Single-tier municipality.

The day after launching her campaign, Crombie was criticized for comments she made in regards to the greenbelt, suggesting that if she were premier she would be consider allowing land inside the greenbelt to be made open to development, although Crombie later clarified her position.

Adil Shamji announced his candidacy at the beginning of July.

In July, an interview featuring Nate Erskine-Smith appeared in the Toronto Star where he critiqued Bonnie Crombie's desire to move the party to the centre-right, her position on the Greenbelt and her age. In response to that interview, Crombie accused Erskine-Smith of sexism and ageism relating to his comments saying "we should be thinking of this as what party do we want to build for the next 15-20 years."

On August 15, the party announced the dates and locations for the five debates that are scheduled to be held across the province starting on September 14 in Thunder Bay.

On August 19, Adil Shamji expressed concerns about election interference after some of his social media accounts were disabled. Shamji's Twitter account was suspended over complaints of spam, then his Facebook account was disabled, preventing the campaign from advertising on the platform. Shamji called the complaints frivolous and malicious and suggested the potential that the suspensions were part of a coordinated attack attempt to silence or hinder his campaign.

On September 11, the party announced, following the deadline to join the party, that the total number of individuals who would be eligible to vote in the leadership election would be over 80,000. The party later announced that, following verification checks and the removal of duplicate submissions, that 103,206 members in total will be eligible to vote.

On September 28, Adil Shamji announced he will be dropping out of the leadership race to endorse Bonnie Crombie.

Nate Erskine-Smith and Yasir Naqvi released a joint statement on November 9, announcing an agreement to ask their supporters to select each other as their number two choice, and also to co-ordinate volunteer & get-out-the-vote efforts. This agreement was viewed as an attempt to block Bonnie Crombie, the perceived front-runner in the race; both stated that they have found “common ground” during the leadership race and believed they were the best choices to beat Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives in the 2026 election.

Debates

Policy and issues

Candidates

Bonnie Crombie

Bonnie Crombie, 63, is the Mayor of Mississauga, Ontario (2014–present) and was previously the MP for Mississauga—Streetsville between 2008 and 2011. She has an MBA and was an entrepreneur and public affairs consultant before entering politics.
:Date announced: June 14, 2023
:Date registered with Elections Ontario: June 13, 2023
:Campaign website:''
www.bonnieforleader.ca
:Campaign slogan: "Strong Experienced Leadership."
:Contributions received: $1,314,053.11
:Campaign expenditures: $1,193,719.46

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, 39, is the MP for Beaches—East York (2015–present), and was a litigation lawyer prior to his election to parliament.
:Date announced: May 8, 2023
:Date registered with Elections Ontario: May 16, 2023
:Campaign website:
:Campaign slogan: "Serious Leadership. For a change."
:Contributions received: $574,073.20
:Campaign expenditures: $587,095.59

Ted Hsu

Ted Hsu, 59, is the MPP for Kingston and the Islands (2022–present) and was previously the MP for the same riding between 2011 and 2015. He completed a PhD in physics and worked as a physicist and in investment banking outside of politics.
:Date announced: May 28, 2023
:Date registered with Elections Ontario: May 20, 2023
:Campaign website:
:Campaign slogan: "A fresh start."
:Contributions received: $437,705.71
:Campaign expenditures: $437,705.71

Yasir Naqvi

Yasir Naqvi, 50, is the MP for Ottawa Centre (2021–present), and was previously MPP for the same riding between 2007 and 2018). He served in the provincial cabinet as Attorney General (2016–18), Government House Leader (2014–18), Minister of Community Safety and Correctional Services (2014–16), and Minister of Labour (2013–14). He served three terms as president of the Ontario Liberal Party between 2009 and 2013, resigning upon his elevation to cabinet. Outside of politics, he was an international trade lawyer and served as the CEO of the Institute for Canadian Citizenship.
:Date announced: June 3, 2023
:Date registered with Elections Ontario: June 2, 2023
:Campaign website: https://yasirnaqvi.ca/
:Campaign slogan: "Libéral. Leader."
:Contributions received: $475,944.50
:Campaign expenditures: $479,255.66

Withdrawn candidates

Adil Shamji

Adil Shamji, is the MPP for Don Valley East (2022–present) and serves as critic for Health, Northern Development, Indigenous Affairs, and Colleges and Universities. Prior to his election, he was an Emergency physician and has completed a Master of Public Policy.
:Date announced: July 4, 2023
:Date registered with Elections Ontario: July 4, 2023
:Date of withdrawal: September 29, 2023
:Endorsed: Bonnie Crombie
:Campaign website:
:Campaign slogan: "For all of us."
:Contributions received: $119,375.00
:Campaign expenditures: $131,879.20

Declined

* Navdeep Bains, federal Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry (2015–2021), MP for Mississauga—Malton (2015–2021), MP for Mississauga—Brampton South (2004–2011)
* Yvan Baker, MP for Etobicoke Centre (2019–present), MPP for Etobicoke Centre (2014–2018) ''(Endorsed Crombie)''
*Maurizio Bevilacqua, Mayor of Vaughan, Ontario (2010–2022), federal Secretary of State (International Financial Institutions) (2002–2003), federal Secretary of State (Science, Research and Development) (2002), MP for Vaughan (2004–2010), MP for Vaughan—King—Aurora (1997–2004), MP for York North (1988–1997)
*Stephen Blais, MPP for Orléanslor (2010–2020)
*Stephanie Bowman, MPP for Don Valley West (2022–present) ''(Endorsed Crombie)''
* Lucille Collard, MPP for Ottawa—Vanier (2020–present) ''(Endorsed Naqvi)''
*Michael Coteau, MP for Don Valley East (2021–present), MPP for Don Valley East (2011–2021), Minister of Community and Social Services (2018), Minister of Children and Youth Services (2016–2018), Minister of Tourism, Culture and Sport (2014–2016), Minister of Citizenship and Immigration (2013-2014), finished second in the 2020 leadership election.
*Mohamad Fakih, philanthropist and founder and CEO of Paramount Fine Foods
*John Fraser, Interim Leader (2018–2020, 2022–present), Parliamentary Leader (2018–present), MPP for Ottawa South (2013–present)
*Mitzie Hunter, MPP for Scarborough—Guildwood (2013–2023), Minister of Advanced Education and Skills Development (2018), Minister of Education (2016–2018), finished fourth in the 2020 leadership election
* Jeff Lehman, CEO and Chair of Muskoka District (2022–present), three-term Mayor of Barrie, Ontario (2010–2022), 2022 Ontario general election candidate in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte, two-time of Chair of Ontario’s Big City Mayors association.
*Mary-Margaret McMahon, MPP for Beaches—East York (2022–present), Toronto City Councillor (2010–2018) ''(Endorsed Erskine-Smith)''
*Bill Mauro, Mayor of Thunder Bay (2018–2022), MPP for Thunder Bay—Atikokan (2003–2018), Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing (2016–2018), Minister of Natural Resources and Forestry (2014–2016), Minister of Municipal Affairs (2014)
* Mike Schreiner, leader of the Green Party of Ontario (2009–present), MPP for Guelph (2018–present)
*Glenn Thibeault, MPP for Sudbury (2015–2018), Minister of Energy (2016–2018), NDP MP for Sudbury (2008–2015) ''(Endorsed Naqvi)''
* Arif Virani, MP for Parkdale—High Park (2015–present), Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada (2023–present)

Opinion polling

Liberal supporters

All Ontarians

Results

: = Eliminated from next round
: = Winner

References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Ontario Liberal Party leadership election, 2023
2023 elections in Canada
Liberal Party leadership election
2023 political party leadership elections
December 2023 events in Canada
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