A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating
storm system
A storm is any disturbed state of the natural environment or the atmosphere of an astronomical body. It may be marked by significant disruptions to normal conditions such as strong wind, tornadoes, hail, thunder and lightning (a thunderstorm), ...
characterized by a
low-pressure center, a closed low-level
atmospheric circulation
Atmospheric circulation is the large-scale movement of air and together with ocean circulation is the means by which thermal energy is redistributed on the surface of the Earth. The Earth's atmospheric circulation varies from year to year, but t ...
,
strong winds
''Strong Winds'' (German: ''Windstärke 9. Die Geschichte einer reichen Erbin'') is a 1924 German silent film directed by Reinhold Schünzel and starring Maria Kamradek, Alwin Neuss and Albert Bennefeld.Das Ufa-Buch p.126
The film's sets were d ...
, and a spiral arrangement of
thunderstorm
A thunderstorm, also known as an electrical storm or a lightning storm, is a storm characterized by the presence of lightning and its acoustic effect on the Earth's atmosphere, known as thunder. Relatively weak thunderstorms are someti ...
s that produce heavy rain and
squall
A squall is a sudden, sharp increase in wind speed lasting minutes, as opposed to a wind gust, which lasts for only seconds. They are usually associated with active weather, such as rain showers, thunderstorms, or heavy snow. Squalls refer to the ...
s. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical cyclone is referred to by
different names, including hurricane (), typhoon (), tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical depression, or simply cyclone. A
hurricane
A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and squalls. Depend ...
is a strong tropical cyclone that occurs in the
Atlantic Ocean
The Atlantic Ocean is the second-largest of the world's five oceans, with an area of about . It covers approximately 20% of Earth's surface and about 29% of its water surface area. It is known to separate the " Old World" of Africa, Europe ...
or northeastern
Pacific Ocean
The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest of Earth's five oceanic divisions. It extends from the Arctic Ocean in the north to the Southern Ocean (or, depending on definition, to Antarctica) in the south, and is bounded by the continen ...
, and a
typhoon
A typhoon is a mature tropical cyclone that develops between 180° and 100°E in the Northern Hemisphere. This region is referred to as the Northwestern Pacific Basin, and is the most active tropical cyclone basin on Earth, accounting for a ...
occurs in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. In the
Indian Ocean
The Indian Ocean is the third-largest of the world's five oceanic divisions, covering or ~19.8% of the water on Earth's surface. It is bounded by Asia to the north, Africa to the west and Australia to the east. To the south it is bounded by th ...
, South Pacific, or (rarely) South Atlantic, comparable storms are referred to simply as "tropical cyclones", and such storms in the Indian Ocean can also be called "severe cyclonic storms".
"Tropical" refers to the geographical origin of these systems, which form almost exclusively over
tropical
The tropics are the regions of Earth surrounding the Equator. They are defined in latitude by the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern Hemisphere at N and the Tropic of Capricorn in
the Southern Hemisphere at S. The tropics are also referred to ...
seas. "Cyclone" refers to their winds moving in a circle, whirling round their central clear
eye
Eyes are organs of the visual system. They provide living organisms with vision, the ability to receive and process visual detail, as well as enabling several photo response functions that are independent of vision. Eyes detect light and conv ...
, with their surface winds blowing
counterclockwise
Two-dimensional rotation can occur in two possible directions. Clockwise motion (abbreviated CW) proceeds in the same direction as a clock's hands: from the top to the right, then down and then to the left, and back up to the top. The opposite ...
in the
Northern Hemisphere
The Northern Hemisphere is the half of Earth that is north of the Equator. For other planets in the Solar System, north is defined as being in the same celestial hemisphere relative to the invariable plane of the solar system as Earth's Nort ...
and
clockwise
Two-dimensional rotation can occur in two possible directions. Clockwise motion (abbreviated CW) proceeds in the same direction as a clock's hands: from the top to the right, then down and then to the left, and back up to the top. The opposite ...
in the
Southern Hemisphere. The opposite direction of circulation is due to the
Coriolis effect
In physics, the Coriolis force is an inertial or fictitious force that acts on objects in motion within a frame of reference that rotates with respect to an inertial frame. In a reference frame with clockwise rotation, the force acts to the ...
. Tropical cyclones
typically form over large bodies of relatively warm water. They derive their energy through the evaporation of
water
Water (chemical formula ) is an inorganic, transparent, tasteless, odorless, and nearly colorless chemical substance, which is the main constituent of Earth's hydrosphere and the fluids of all known living organisms (in which it acts as a ...
from the
ocean
The ocean (also the sea or the world ocean) is the body of salt water that covers approximately 70.8% of the surface of Earth and contains 97% of Earth's water. An ocean can also refer to any of the large bodies of water into which the wo ...
surface, which ultimately
condenses
Condensation is the change of the state of matter from the gas phase into the liquid phase, and is the reverse of vaporization. The word most often refers to the water cycle. It can also be defined as the change in the state of water vapor to ...
into
cloud
In meteorology, a cloud is an aerosol consisting of a visible mass of miniature liquid droplets, frozen crystals, or other particles suspended in the atmosphere of a planetary body or similar space. Water or various other chemicals may co ...
s and rain when moist air rises and cools to
saturation
Saturation, saturated, unsaturation or unsaturated may refer to:
Chemistry
* Saturation, a property of organic compounds referring to carbon-carbon bonds
**Saturated and unsaturated compounds
** Degree of unsaturation
**Saturated fat or fatty aci ...
. This
energy source
Energy development is the field of activities focused on obtaining sources of energy from natural resources. These activities include production of renewable, nuclear, and fossil fuel derived sources of energy, and for the recovery and reuse ...
differs from that of
mid-latitude cyclonic storms, such as
nor'easter
A nor'easter (also northeaster; see below), or an East Coast low is a synoptic-scale extratropical cyclone in the western North Atlantic Ocean. The name derives from the direction of the winds that blow from the northeast. The original use o ...
s and
European windstorm
European windstorms are powerful extratropical cyclones which form as cyclonic windstorms associated with areas of low atmospheric pressure. They can occur throughout the year, but are most frequent between October and March, with peak intensit ...
s, which are powered primarily by
horizontal temperature contrasts. Tropical cyclones are typically between in diameter. Every year tropical cyclones impact various regions of the globe including the
Gulf Coast of North America,
Australia
Australia, officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a Sovereign state, sovereign country comprising the mainland of the Australia (continent), Australian continent, the island of Tasmania, and numerous List of islands of Australia, sma ...
,
India
India, officially the Republic of India (Hindi: ), is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by area, the second-most populous country, and the most populous democracy in the world. Bounded by the Indian Ocean on the so ...
, and
Bangladesh
Bangladesh (}, ), officially the People's Republic of Bangladesh, is a country in South Asia. It is the eighth-most populous country in the world, with a population exceeding 165 million people in an area of . Bangladesh is among the mos ...
.
The strong rotating winds of a tropical cyclone are a result of the
conservation of angular momentum
In physics, angular momentum (rarely, moment of momentum or rotational momentum) is the rotational analog of linear momentum. It is an important physical quantity because it is a conserved quantity—the total angular momentum of a closed system ...
imparted by the
Earth's rotation
Earth's rotation or Earth's spin is the rotation of planet Earth around its own Rotation around a fixed axis, axis, as well as changes in the orientation (geometry), orientation of the rotation axis in space. Earth rotates eastward, in retrograd ...
as air flows inwards toward the axis of rotation. As a result, they rarely form within 5° of the
equator
The equator is a circle of latitude, about in circumference, that divides Earth into the Northern and Southern hemispheres. It is an imaginary line located at 0 degrees latitude, halfway between the North and South poles. The term can als ...
. Tropical cyclones are very rare in the South Atlantic (although
occasional examples do occur) due to consistently strong
wind shear
Wind shear (or windshear), sometimes referred to as wind gradient, is a difference in wind speed and/or direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere. Atmospheric wind shear is normally described as either vertical or horizontal ...
and a weak
Intertropical Convergence Zone
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ ), known by sailors as the doldrums or the calms because of its monotonous windless weather, is the area where the northeast and the southeast trade winds converge. It encircles Earth near the thermal e ...
. Conversely, the
African easterly jet and areas of
atmospheric instability
Atmospheric instability is a condition where the Earth's atmosphere is generally considered to be unstable and as a result the weather is subjected to a high degree of variability through distance and time. Atmospheric stability is a measure of th ...
give rise to cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean and
Caribbean Sea
The Caribbean Sea ( es, Mar Caribe; french: Mer des Caraïbes; ht, Lanmè Karayib; jam, Kiaribiyan Sii; nl, Caraïbische Zee; pap, Laman Karibe) is a sea of the Atlantic Ocean in the tropics of the Western Hemisphere. It is bounded by Mexico ...
, while cyclones near Australia owe their genesis to
the Asian monsoon and
Western Pacific Warm Pool The Tropical Warm Pool (TWP) or Indo-Pacific Warm Pool is a mass of ocean water located in the western Pacific Ocean and eastern Indian Ocean which consistently exhibits the highest water temperatures over the largest expanse of the Earth's surface. ...
.
The primary energy source for these storms is warm ocean waters. These storms are therefore typically strongest when over or near water, and they weaken quite rapidly over land. This causes coastal regions to be particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones, compared to inland regions. Coastal damage may be caused by strong winds and rain, high waves (due to winds),
storm surge
A storm surge, storm flood, tidal surge, or storm tide is a coastal flood or tsunami-like phenomenon of rising water commonly associated with low-pressure weather systems, such as cyclones. It is measured as the rise in water level above the n ...
s (due to wind and severe pressure changes), and
the potential of spawning
tornado
A tornado is a violently rotating column of air that is in contact with both the surface of the Earth and a cumulonimbus cloud or, in rare cases, the base of a cumulus cloud. It is often referred to as a twister, whirlwind or cyclone, altho ...
es. Tropical cyclones draw in air from a large area and concentrate the water content of that air (from atmospheric moisture and moisture evaporated from water) into
precipitation
In meteorology, precipitation is any product of the condensation of atmospheric water vapor that falls under gravitational pull from clouds. The main forms of precipitation include drizzle, rain, sleet, snow, ice pellets, graupel and hail. ...
over a much smaller area. This replenishing of moisture-bearing air after rain may cause multi-hour or multi-day extremely heavy rain up to from the coastline, far beyond the amount of water that the local atmosphere holds at any one time. This in turn can lead to river
flooding
A flood is an overflow of water ( or rarely other fluids) that submerges land that is usually dry. In the sense of "flowing water", the word may also be applied to the inflow of the tide. Floods are an area of study of the discipline hydrolog ...
, overland flooding, and a general overwhelming of local water control structures across a large area. Although their effects on human populations can be devastating, tropical cyclones may play a role in relieving
drought
A drought is defined as drier than normal conditions.Douville, H., K. Raghavan, J. Renwick, R.P. Allan, P.A. Arias, M. Barlow, R. Cerezo-Mota, A. Cherchi, T.Y. Gan, J. Gergis, D. Jiang, A. Khan, W. Pokam Mba, D. Rosenfeld, J. Tierney, an ...
conditions, though this claim is disputed. They also carry heat and energy away from the tropics and transport it towards temperate latitudes, which plays an important role in regulating global climate.
Background
A tropical cyclone is the generic term for a warm-cored, non-frontal
synoptic-scale low-pressure system
In meteorology, a low-pressure area, low area or low is a region where the atmospheric pressure is lower than that of surrounding locations. Low-pressure areas are commonly associated with inclement weather (such as cloudy, windy, with possible ...
over
tropical
The tropics are the regions of Earth surrounding the Equator. They are defined in latitude by the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern Hemisphere at N and the Tropic of Capricorn in
the Southern Hemisphere at S. The tropics are also referred to ...
or
subtropical
The subtropical zones or subtropics are geographical zone, geographical and Köppen climate classification, climate zones to the Northern Hemisphere, north and Southern Hemisphere, south of the tropics. Geographically part of the Geographical z ...
waters around the world.
The systems generally have a well-defined center which is surrounded by deep
atmospheric convection
Atmospheric convection is the result of a parcel-environment instability, or temperature difference layer in the atmosphere. Different lapse rates within dry and moist air masses lead to instability. Mixing of air during the day which expands the ...
and a closed wind circulation at the surface.
Historically, tropical cyclones have occurred around the world for thousands of years, with one of the earliest tropical cyclones on record estimated to have occurred in
Western Australia
Western Australia (commonly abbreviated as WA) is a state of Australia occupying the western percent of the land area of Australia excluding external territories. It is bounded by the Indian Ocean to the north and west, the Southern Ocean to th ...
in around 4000 BC.
However, before satellite imagery became available during the 20th century, there was no way to detect a tropical cyclone unless it impacted land or a ship encountered it by chance.
These days, on average around 80 to 90 named tropical cyclones form each year around the world, over half of which develop
hurricane-force winds
The Beaufort scale is an empirical measure that relates wind speed to observed conditions at sea or on land. Its full name is the Beaufort wind force scale.
History
The scale was devised in 1805 by the Irish hydrographer Francis Beaufort ...
of or more.
Around the world, a tropical cyclone is generally deemed to have formed once mean surface winds in excess of are observed.
It is assumed at this stage that a tropical cyclone has become self-sustaining and can continue to intensify without any help from its environment.
A study review article published in 2021 in ''
Nature Geoscience
''Nature Geoscience'' is a monthly peer-reviewed scientific journal published by the Nature Publishing Group. The Chief Editor is Tamara Goldin, who took over from Heike Langenberg in February 2020. It was established in January 2008.
Scope
The ...
'' concluded that the geographic range of tropical cyclones will probably expand poleward in response to climate warming of the
Hadley circulation
The Hadley cell, named after George Hadley, is a global-scale tropical atmospheric circulation that features air rising near the equator, flowing poleward at a height of 10 to 15 kilometers above the earth's surface, descending in the subtropics, ...
.
Intensity
Tropical cyclone intensity is based on wind speeds and pressure; relationships between winds and pressure are often used in determining the intensity of a storm. Tropical cyclone scales such as the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and Australia's scale (Bureau of Meteorology) only use wind speed for determining the category of a storm. The most intense storm on record is
Typhoon Tip
Typhoon Tip, known in the Philippines as Typhoon Warling, was the largest and most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded. The forty-third tropical depression, nineteenth tropical storm, twelfth typhoon, and third super typhoon of the 1979 Paci ...
in the northwestern Pacific Ocean in 1979, which reached a minimum pressure of and maximum sustained wind speeds of .
The highest maximum sustained wind speed ever recorded was in
Hurricane Patricia
Hurricane Patricia was the strongest tropical cyclone on record worldwide in terms of wind speed and the second-most intense on record worldwide in terms of pressure, behind Typhoon Tip in 1979, with a minimum atmospheric pressure of 872 mbar ( ...
in 2015—the most intense cyclone ever recorded in the
Western Hemisphere
The Western Hemisphere is the half of the planet Earth that lies west of the prime meridian (which crosses Greenwich, London, United Kingdom) and east of the antimeridian. The other half is called the Eastern Hemisphere. Politically, the term We ...
.
Factors that influence intensity
Warm
sea surface temperature
Sea surface temperature (SST), or ocean surface temperature, is the ocean temperature close to the surface. The exact meaning of ''surface'' varies according to the measurement method used, but it is between and below the sea surface. Air mass ...
s are required in order for tropical cyclones to form and strengthen. The commonly-accepted minimum temperature range for this to occur is , however, multiple studies have proposed a lower minimum of . Higher sea surface temperatures result in faster intensification rates and sometimes even
rapid intensification
In meteorology, rapid intensification is a situation where a tropical cyclone intensifies dramatically in a short period of time. The United States National Hurricane Center defines rapid intensification as an increase in the maximum sustained w ...
. High
ocean heat content
In oceanography and climatology, ocean heat content (OHC) is a term for the energy absorbed by the ocean, where it is stored for indefinite time periods as internal energy or enthalpy. The rise in OHC accounts for over 90% of Earth’s excess the ...
, also known as
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is one of such non-conventional oceanographic parameters influencing the tropical cyclone intensity. The relationship between Sea Surface Temperature
Sea surface temperature (SST), or ocean surface tempera ...
, allows storms to achieve a higher intensity.
Most tropical cyclones that experience rapid intensification are traversing regions of high ocean heat content rather than lower values.
High ocean heat content values can help to offset the oceanic cooling caused by the passage of a tropical cyclone, limiting the effect this cooling has on the storm. Faster-moving systems are able to intensify to higher intensities with lower ocean heat content values. Slower-moving systems require higher values of ocean heat content to achieve the same intensity.
The passage of a tropical cyclone over the ocean causes the upper layers of the ocean to cool substantially, a process known as
upwelling
Upwelling is an oceanographic phenomenon that involves wind-driven motion of dense, cooler, and usually nutrient-rich water from deep water towards the ocean surface. It replaces the warmer and usually nutrient-depleted surface water. The nutr ...
, which can negatively influence subsequent cyclone development. This cooling is primarily caused by wind-driven mixing of cold water from deeper in the ocean with the warm surface waters. This effect results in a negative feedback process that can inhibit further development or lead to weakening. Additional cooling may come in the form of cold water from falling raindrops (this is because the atmosphere is cooler at higher altitudes). Cloud cover may also play a role in cooling the ocean, by shielding the ocean surface from direct sunlight before and slightly after the storm passage. All these effects can combine to produce a dramatic drop in sea surface temperature over a large area in just a few days.
Conversely, the mixing of the sea can result in heat being inserted in deeper waters, with
potential effects on global
climate
Climate is the long-term weather pattern in an area, typically averaged over 30 years. More rigorously, it is the mean and variability of meteorological variables over a time spanning from months to millions of years. Some of the meteorologic ...
.
Vertical wind shear
Wind shear (or windshear), sometimes referred to as wind gradient, is a difference in wind speed and/or direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere. Atmospheric wind shear is normally described as either vertical or horizontal ...
negatively impacts tropical cyclone intensification by displacing moisture and heat from a system's center. Low levels of vertical wind shear are most optimal for strengthening, while stronger wind shear induces weakening. Dry air entraining into a tropical cyclone's core has a negative effect on its development and intensity by diminishing atmospheric convection and introducing asymmetries in the storm's structure. Symmetric, strong
outflow
Outflow may refer to:
*Capital outflow, the capital leaving a particular economy
*Bipolar outflow, in astronomy, two continuous flows of gas from the poles of a star
*Outflow (hydrology), the discharge of a lake or other reservoir system
* Outflow ...
leads to a faster rate of intensification than observed in other systems by mitigating local wind shear. Weakening outflow is associated with the weakening of
rainbands
A rainband is a cloud and precipitation structure associated with an area of rainfall which is significantly elongated. Rainbands can be stratiform or convective, and are generated by differences in temperature. When noted on weather radar ima ...
within a tropical cyclone.
The size of tropical cyclones plays a role in how quickly they intensify. Smaller tropical cyclones are more prone to rapid intensification than larger ones. The
Fujiwhara effect
The Fujiwhara effect, sometimes referred to as the Fujiwara effect, Fujiw(h)ara interaction or binary interaction, is a phenomenon that occurs when two nearby cyclonic vortices move around each other and close the distance between the circulations ...
, which involves interaction between two tropical cyclones, can weaken and ultimately result in the dissipation of the weaker of two tropical cyclones by reducing the organization of the system's convection and imparting horizontal wind shear. Tropical cyclones typically weaken while situated over a landmass because conditions are often unfavorable as a result of the lack of oceanic forcing. The
Brown ocean effect
The brown ocean effect is an observed weather phenomenon involving some tropical cyclones after landfall. Normally, hurricanes and tropical storms lose strength when they make landfall, but when the brown ocean effect is in play, tropical cyclon ...
can allow a tropical cyclone to maintain or increase its intensity following
landfall
Landfall is the event of a storm moving over land after being over water. More broadly, and in relation to human travel, it refers to 'the first land that is reached or seen at the end of a journey across the sea or through the air, or the fact ...
, in cases where there has been copious rainfall, through the release of latent heat from the saturated soil.
Orographic lift
Orographic lift occurs when an air mass is forced from a low elevation to a higher elevation as it moves over rising terrain. As the air mass gains altitude it quickly cools down adiabatically, which can raise the relative humidity to 100% and cr ...
can cause an significant increase in the intensity of the convection of a tropical cyclone when its eye moves over a mountain, breaking the capped boundary layer that had been restraining it. Jet streams can both enhance and inhibit tropical cyclone intensity by influencing the storm's outflow as well as vertical wind shear.
Formation
![Hurricane-en](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/Hurricane-en.svg)
Tropical cyclones tend to develop during the summer, but have been noted in nearly every month in most
tropical cyclone basins
Traditionally, areas of tropical cyclone formation are divided into seven basins. These include the north Atlantic Ocean, the eastern and western parts of the northern Pacific Ocean, the southwestern Pacific, the southwestern and southeastern Ind ...
. Tropical cyclones on either side of the Equator generally have their origins in the
Intertropical Convergence Zone
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ ), known by sailors as the doldrums or the calms because of its monotonous windless weather, is the area where the northeast and the southeast trade winds converge. It encircles Earth near the thermal e ...
, where winds blow from either the northeast or southeast.
Within this broad area of low-pressure, air is heated over the warm tropical ocean and rises in discrete parcels, which causes thundery showers to form.
These showers dissipate quite quickly; however, they can group together into large clusters of thunderstorms.
This creates a flow of warm, moist, rapidly rising air, which starts to
rotate cyclonically as it interacts with the rotation of the earth.
Several factors are required for these thunderstorms to develop further, including
sea surface temperatures
Sea surface temperature (SST), or ocean surface temperature, is the ocean temperature close to the surface. The exact meaning of ''surface'' varies according to the measurement method used, but it is between and below the sea surface. Air masse ...
of around and low vertical
wind shear
Wind shear (or windshear), sometimes referred to as wind gradient, is a difference in wind speed and/or direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere. Atmospheric wind shear is normally described as either vertical or horizontal ...
surrounding the system, atmospheric instability, high
humidity
Humidity is the concentration of water vapor present in the air. Water vapor, the gaseous state of water, is generally invisible to the human eye. Humidity indicates the likelihood for precipitation, dew, or fog to be present.
Humidity depe ...
in the lower to middle levels of the
troposphere
The troposphere is the first and lowest layer of the atmosphere of the Earth, and contains 75% of the total mass of the planetary atmosphere, 99% of the total mass of water vapour and aerosols, and is where most weather phenomena occur. From ...
, enough
Coriolis force
In physics, the Coriolis force is an inertial or fictitious force that acts on objects in motion within a frame of reference that rotates with respect to an inertial frame. In a reference frame with clockwise rotation, the force acts to the ...
to develop a
low-pressure center, a pre-existing low-level focus or disturbance,
There is a limit on tropical cyclone intensity which is strongly related to the water temperatures along its path.
and upper-level divergence.
An average of 86 tropical cyclones of tropical storm intensity form annually worldwide. Of those, 47 reach strength higher than , and 20 become intense tropical cyclones (at least Category 3 intensity on the
Saffir–Simpson scale
The Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS) classifies hurricanes—which in the Western Hemisphere are tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of tropical depressions and tropical storms—into five categories distinguished by ...
).
Climate
Climate is the long-term weather pattern in an area, typically averaged over 30 years. More rigorously, it is the mean and variability of meteorological variables over a time spanning from months to millions of years. Some of the meteorologic ...
cycles such as
ENSO and the
Madden–Julian oscillation
The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the largest element of the intraseasonal (30- to 90-day) variability in the tropical atmosphere. It was discovered in 1971 by Roland Madden and Paul Julian of the American National Center for Atmospheric R ...
modulate the timing and frequency of tropical cyclone development.
Rossby wave
Rossby waves, also known as planetary waves, are a type of inertial wave naturally occurring in rotating fluids. They were first identified by Sweden-born American meteorologist Carl-Gustaf Arvid Rossby. They are observed in the atmospheres and ...
s can aid in the formation of a new tropical cyclone by disseminating the energy of an existing, mature storm.
Kelvin wave
A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the ...
s can contribute to tropical cyclone formation by regulating the development of the
westerlies
The westerlies, anti-trades, or prevailing westerlies, are prevailing winds from the west toward the east in the middle latitudes between 30 and 60 degrees latitude. They originate from the high-pressure areas in the horse latitudes and trend to ...
. Cyclone formation is usually reduced 3 days prior to the wave's crest and increased during the 3 days after.
Rapid intensification
On occasion, tropical cyclones may undergo a process known as rapid intensification, a period in which the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone increase by or more within 24 hours.
Similarly, rapid deepening in tropical cyclones is defined as a minimum sea surface pressure decrease of per hour or within a 24-hour period; explosive deepening occurs when the surface pressure decreases by per hour for at least 12 hours or per hour for at least 6 hours. For rapid intensification to occur, several conditions must be in place. Water temperatures must be extremely high (near or above ), and water of this temperature must be sufficiently deep such that waves do not upwell cooler waters to the surface. On the other hand,
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is one of such non-conventional oceanographic parameters influencing the tropical cyclone intensity. The relationship between Sea Surface Temperature
Sea surface temperature (SST), or ocean surface tempera ...
is one of such non-conventional subsurface
oceanographic
Oceanography (), also known as oceanology and ocean science, is the scientific study of the oceans. It is an Earth science, which covers a wide range of topics, including ecosystem dynamics; ocean currents, waves, and geophysical fluid dynamics ...
parameters influencing the
cyclone
In meteorology, a cyclone () is a large air mass that rotates around a strong center of low atmospheric pressure, counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere as viewed from above (opposite to an anti ...
intensity.
Wind shear
Wind shear (or windshear), sometimes referred to as wind gradient, is a difference in wind speed and/or direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere. Atmospheric wind shear is normally described as either vertical or horizontal ...
must be low; when wind shear is high, the
convection
Convection is single or multiphase fluid flow that occurs spontaneously due to the combined effects of material property heterogeneity and body forces on a fluid, most commonly density and gravity (see buoyancy). When the cause of the convec ...
and circulation in the cyclone will be disrupted. Usually, an
anticyclone
An anticyclone is a weather phenomenon defined as a large-scale circulation of winds around a central region of high atmospheric pressure, clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and counterclockwise in the Southern Hemisphere as viewed from abov ...
in the upper layers of the
troposphere
The troposphere is the first and lowest layer of the atmosphere of the Earth, and contains 75% of the total mass of the planetary atmosphere, 99% of the total mass of water vapour and aerosols, and is where most weather phenomena occur. From ...
above the storm must be present as well—for extremely low surface pressures to develop, air must be rising very rapidly in the eyewall of the storm, and an upper-level anticyclone helps channel this air away from the cyclone efficiently.
However, some cyclones such as
Hurricane Epsilon have rapidly intensified despite relatively unfavorable conditions.
Dissipation
![Paulette 2020-09-10 1200Z](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/07/Paulette_2020-09-10_1200Z.png)
There are a number of ways a tropical cyclone can weaken, dissipate, or lose its tropical characteristics. These include making landfall, moving over cooler water, encountering dry air, or interacting with other weather systems; however, once a system has dissipated or lost its tropical characteristics, its remnants could regenerate a tropical cyclone if environmental conditions become favorable.
A tropical cyclone can dissipate when it moves over waters significantly cooler than . This will deprive the storm of such tropical characteristics as a warm core with thunderstorms near the center, so that it becomes a remnant
low-pressure area
In meteorology, a low-pressure area, low area or low is a region where the atmospheric pressure is lower than that of surrounding locations. Low-pressure areas are commonly associated with inclement weather (such as cloudy, windy, with possible ...
. Remnant systems may persist for several days before losing their identity. This dissipation mechanism is most common in the eastern North Pacific. Weakening or dissipation can also occur if a storm experiences vertical wind shear which causes the convection and heat engine to move away from the center; this normally ceases the development of a tropical cyclone.
In addition, its interaction with the main belt of the
Westerlies
The westerlies, anti-trades, or prevailing westerlies, are prevailing winds from the west toward the east in the middle latitudes between 30 and 60 degrees latitude. They originate from the high-pressure areas in the horse latitudes and trend to ...
, by means of merging with a nearby frontal zone, can cause tropical cyclones to evolve into
extratropical cyclones
Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are low-pressure areas which, along with the anticyclones of high-pressure areas, drive the weather over much of the Earth. Extratropical cyclones are capable of p ...
. This transition can take 1–3 days.
Should a tropical cyclone make landfall or pass over an island, its circulation could start to break down, especially if it encounters mountainous terrain.
When a system makes landfall on a large landmass, it is cut off from its supply of warm moist maritime air and starts to draw in dry continental air.
This, combined with the increased friction over land areas, leads to the weakening and dissipation of the tropical cyclone.
Over a mountainous terrain, a system can quickly weaken; however, over flat areas, it may endure for two to three days before circulation breaks down and dissipates.
Over the years, there have been a number of techniques considered to try to artificially modify tropical cyclones.
These techniques have included using
nuclear weapons
A nuclear weapon is an explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions, either fission (fission bomb) or a combination of fission and fusion reactions (thermonuclear bomb), producing a nuclear explosion. Both bomb ...
, cooling the ocean with icebergs, blowing the storm away from land with giant fans, and
seeding
The term seeding and related terms such as seeded are used in several different contexts:
*Sowing, planting seeds in a place or on an object
*Cloud seeding, manipulating cloud formations
*Seeding (computing), a concept in computing and peer-to-pee ...
selected storms with dry ice or
silver iodide
Silver iodide is an inorganic compound with the formula Ag I. The compound is a bright yellow solid, but samples almost always contain impurities of metallic silver that give a gray coloration. The silver contamination arises because AgI is hig ...
.
These techniques, however, fail to appreciate the duration, intensity, power or size of tropical cyclones.
Methods for assessing intensity
A variety of methods or techniques, including surface, satellite, and aerial, are used to assess the intensity of a tropical cyclone. Reconnaissance aircraft fly around and through tropical cyclones, outfitted with specialized instruments, to collect information that can be used to ascertain the winds and pressure of a system.
Tropical cyclones possess winds of different speeds at different heights. Winds recorded at flight level can be converted to find the wind speeds at the surface. Surface observations, such as ship reports, land stations,
mesonet
In meteorology and climatology, a mesonet, portmanteau of mesoscale network, is a network of automated weather and, often, environmental monitoring stations designed to observe mesoscale meteorological phenomena and/or microclimates.
Dry lines ...
s, coastal stations, and buoys, can provide information on a tropical cyclone's intensity or the direction it is traveling.
Wind-pressure relationships (WPRs) are used as a way to determine the pressure of a storm based on its wind speed. Several different methods and equations have been proposed to calculate WPRs.
Tropical cyclones agencies each use their own, fixed WPR, which can result in inaccuracies between agencies that are issuing estimates on the same system.
The ASCAT is a
scatterometer
A scatterometer or diffusionmeter is a scientific instrument to measure the return of a beam of light or radar waves scattered by diffusion in a medium such as air. Diffusionmeters using visible light are found in airports or along roads to measur ...
used by the
MetOp
Metop (Meteorological Operational satellite) is a series of three polar-orbiting meteorological satellites developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and operated by the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites ...
satellites to map the wind field vectors of tropical cyclones.
The SMAP uses an L-band
radiometer
A radiometer or roentgenometer is a device for measuring the radiant flux (power) of electromagnetic radiation. Generally, a radiometer is an infrared radiation detector or an ultraviolet detector. Microwave radiometers operate in the microwave w ...
channel to determine the wind speeds of tropical cyclones at the ocean surface, and has been shown to be reliable at higher intensities and under heavy rainfall conditions, unlike scatterometer-based and other radiometer-based instruments.
The
Dvorak technique
The Dvorak technique (developed between 1969 and 1984 by Vernon Dvorak) is a widely used system to estimate tropical cyclone intensity (which includes tropical depression, tropical storm, and hurricane/typhoon/intense tropical cyclone intensitie ...
plays a large role in both the classification of a tropical cyclone and the determination of its intensity. Used in warning centers, the method was developed by
Vernon Dvorak
Vernon Francis Dvorak (November 15, 1928 – September 19, 2022) was an American meteorologist. He studied meteorology at the University of California, Los Angeles and wrote his Master thesis ''An investigation of the inversion-cloud regime over ...
in the 1970s, and uses both visible and infrared satellite imagery in the assessment of tropical cyclone intensity. The Dvorak technique uses a scale of "T-numbers", scaling in increments of 0.5 from T1.0 to T8.0. Each T-number has an intensity assigned to it, with larger T-numbers indicating a stronger system. Tropical cyclones are assessed by forecasters according to an array of patterns, including
curved banding features, shear, central dense overcast, and eye, in order to determine the T-number and thus assess the intensity of the storm. The
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
__NOTOC__
The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) is a research institute where scientists study the use of data from geostationary and polar orbit weather satellites to improve forecasts of weather (including trop ...
works to develop and improve automated satellite methods, such as the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) and SATCON. The ADT, used by a large number of forecasting centers, uses infrared geostationary satellite imagery and an algorithm based upon the Dvorak technique to assess the intensity of tropical cyclones. The ADT has a number of differences from the conventional Dvorak technique, including changes to intensity constraint rules and the usage of microwave imagery to base a system's intensity upon its internal structure, which prevents the intensity from leveling off before an eye emerges in infrared imagery. The SATCON weights estimates from various satellite-based systems and
microwave sounders, accounting for the strengths and flaws in each individual estimate, to produce a consensus estimate of a tropical cyclone's intensity which can be more reliable than the Dvorak technique at times.
Intensity metrics
Multiple intensity metrics are used, including
accumulated cyclone energy
Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculating by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured ever ...
(ACE), the
Hurricane Surge Index
A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm, storm system characterized by a Low-pressure area, low-pressure center, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, Beaufort scale, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms tha ...
, the
Hurricane Severity Index The Hurricane Severity Index (or HSI) is a hurricane rating system which defines the strength and destructive capability of a storm. The HSI uses equations which incorporate the intensity of the winds and the size of the area covered by the winds. T ...
, the
Power Dissipation Index (PDI), and
integrated kinetic energy
Integration may refer to:
Biology
*Multisensory integration
*Path integration
* Pre-integration complex, viral genetic material used to insert a viral genome into a host genome
*DNA integration, by means of site-specific recombinase technology, ...
(IKE). ACE is a metric of the total energy a system has exerted over its lifespan. ACE is calculated by summing the squares of a cyclone's sustained wind speed, every six hours as long as the system is at or above tropical storm intensity and either tropical or subtropical. The calculation of the PDI is similar in nature to ACE, with the major difference being that wind speeds are cubed rather than squared. The Hurricane Surge Index is a metric of the potential damage a storm may inflict via storm surge. It is calculated by squaring the dividend of the storm's wind speed and a climatological value (), and then multiplying that quantity by the dividend of the radius of hurricane-force winds and its climatological value (). This can be represented in equation form as:
:
where v is the storm's wind speed and r is the radius of hurricane-force winds. The Hurricane Severity Index is a scale that can assign up to 50 points to a system; up to 25 points come from intensity, while the other 25 come from the size of the storm's wind field.
The IKE model measures the destructive capability of a tropical cyclone via winds, waves, and surge. It is calculated as:
:
where p is the density of air, u is a sustained surface wind speed value, and d is the
volume element In mathematics, a volume element provides a means for integrating a function with respect to volume in various coordinate systems such as spherical coordinates and cylindrical coordinates. Thus a volume element is an expression of the form
:dV = \ ...
.
Classification and naming
Intensity classifications
![Maria, Bopha and Saomai 2006-08-07 0435Z](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/07/Maria%2C_Bopha_and_Saomai_2006-08-07_0435Z.jpg)
Around the world, tropical cyclones are classified in different ways, based on the location (
tropical cyclone basins
Traditionally, areas of tropical cyclone formation are divided into seven basins. These include the north Atlantic Ocean, the eastern and western parts of the northern Pacific Ocean, the southwestern Pacific, the southwestern and southeastern Ind ...
), the structure of the system and its intensity. For example, within the Northern Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, a tropical cyclone with wind speeds of over is called a hurricane, while it is called a typhoon or a severe cyclonic storm within the Western Pacific or North Indian Oceans.
Within the Southern Hemisphere, it is either called a hurricane, tropical cyclone or a severe tropical cyclone, depending on if it is located within the South Atlantic, South-West Indian Ocean, Australian region or the South Pacific Ocean.
Naming
The practice of using names to identify tropical cyclones goes back many years, with systems named after places or things they hit before the formal start of naming.
The system currently used provides positive identification of severe weather systems in a brief form, that is readily understood and recognized by the public.
The credit for the first usage of personal names for weather systems is generally given to the
Queensland Government
The Queensland Government is the democratic administrative authority of the Australian state of Queensland. The Government of Queensland, a parliamentary constitutional monarchy was formed in 1859 as prescribed in its Constitution, as amended fr ...
Meteorologist
Clement Wragge
Clement Lindley Wragge (18 September 185210 December 1922) was a meteorologist born in Stourbridge, Worcestershire, England, but moved to Oakamoor, Staffordshire as a child. He set up the Wragge Museum in Stafford following a trip around the wor ...
who named systems between 1887 and 1907.
This system of naming weather systems subsequently fell into disuse for several years after Wragge retired, until it was revived in the latter part of
World War II
World War II or the Second World War, often abbreviated as WWII or WW2, was a world war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. It involved the vast majority of the world's countries—including all of the great powers—forming two opposin ...
for the Western Pacific.
Formal naming schemes have subsequently been introduced for the North and South Atlantic, Eastern, Central, Western and Southern Pacific basins as well as the Australian region and Indian Ocean.
At present, tropical cyclones are officially named by one of twelve
meteorological services and retain their names throughout their lifetimes to provide ease of communication between forecasters and the general public regarding forecasts, watches, and warnings.
Since the systems can last a week or longer and more than one can be occurring in the same basin at the same time, the names are thought to reduce the confusion about what storm is being described.
Names are assigned in order from predetermined
lists
A ''list'' is any set of items in a row. List or lists may also refer to:
People
* List (surname)
Organizations
* List College, an undergraduate division of the Jewish Theological Seminary of America
* SC Germania List, German rugby unio ...
with one, three, or ten-minute sustained wind speeds of more than depending on which basin it originates.
However, standards vary from basin to basin with some tropical depressions named in the Western Pacific, while tropical cyclones have to have a significant amount of gale-force winds occurring around the center before they are named within the
Southern Hemisphere.
The names of significant tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Ocean, Pacific Ocean, and Australian region are retired from the naming lists and replaced with another name.
Tropical cyclones that develop around the world are assigned an identification code consisting of a two-digit number and suffix letter by the
warning centers that monitor them.
Structure
Eye and center
![Staring Down Hurricane Florence](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b5/Staring_Down_Hurricane_Florence.jpg)
At the center of a mature tropical cyclone, air sinks rather than rises. For a sufficiently strong storm, air may sink over a layer deep enough to suppress cloud formation, thereby creating a clear "
eye
Eyes are organs of the visual system. They provide living organisms with vision, the ability to receive and process visual detail, as well as enabling several photo response functions that are independent of vision. Eyes detect light and conv ...
". Weather in the eye is normally calm and free of
convective clouds, although the sea may be extremely violent.
The eye is normally circular and is typically in diameter, though eyes as small as and as large as have been observed.
The cloudy outer edge of the eye is called the "eyewall". The eyewall typically expands outward with height, resembling an arena football stadium; this phenomenon is sometimes referred to as the "
stadium effect".
The eyewall is where the greatest wind speeds are found, air rises most rapidly, clouds reach their highest
altitude
Altitude or height (also sometimes known as depth) is a distance measurement, usually in the vertical or "up" direction, between a reference datum and a point or object. The exact definition and reference datum varies according to the context ...
, and precipitation is the heaviest. The heaviest wind damage occurs where a tropical cyclone's eyewall passes over land.
In a weaker storm, the eye may be obscured by the
central dense overcast
The central dense overcast, or CDO, of a tropical cyclone or strong subtropical cyclone is the large central area of thunderstorms surrounding its circulation center, caused by the formation of its eyewall. It can be round, angular, oval, or irr ...
, which is the upper-level cirrus shield that is associated with a concentrated area of strong thunderstorm activity near the center of a tropical cyclone.
The eyewall may vary over time in the form of
eyewall replacement cycles
The eye is a region of mostly calm weather at the center of tropical cyclones. The eye of a storm is a roughly circular area, typically in diameter. It is surrounded by the ''eyewall'', a ring of towering thunderstorms where the most severe weat ...
, particularly in intense tropical cyclones.
Outer rainbands can organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward, which is believed to rob the primary eyewall of moisture and
angular momentum
In physics, angular momentum (rarely, moment of momentum or rotational momentum) is the rotational analog of linear momentum. It is an important physical quantity because it is a conserved quantity—the total angular momentum of a closed syst ...
. When the primary eyewall weakens, the tropical cyclone weakens temporarily. The outer eyewall eventually replaces the primary one at the end of the cycle, at which time the storm may return to its original intensity.
Size
There are a variety of metrics commonly used to measure storm size. The most common metrics include the radius of maximum wind, the radius of wind (i.e.
gale force
The Beaufort scale is an empirical measure that relates wind speed to observed conditions at sea or on land. Its full name is the Beaufort wind force scale.
History
The scale was devised in 1805 by the Irish hydrographer Francis Beaufort ...
), the radius of outermost closed
isobar (
ROCI), and the radius of vanishing wind.
An additional metric is the radius at which the cyclone's relative
vorticity
In continuum mechanics, vorticity is a pseudovector field that describes the local spinning motion of a continuum near some point (the tendency of something to rotate), as would be seen by an observer located at that point and traveling along wit ...
field decreases to 1×10
−5 s
−1.
On Earth, tropical cyclones span a large range of sizes, from as measured by the radius of vanishing wind. They are largest on average in the northwest Pacific Ocean basin and smallest in the northeastern
Pacific Ocean
The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest of Earth's five oceanic divisions. It extends from the Arctic Ocean in the north to the Southern Ocean (or, depending on definition, to Antarctica) in the south, and is bounded by the continen ...
basin.
If the radius of outermost closed isobar is less than two
degrees of latitude (), then the cyclone is "very small" or a "midget". A radius of 3–6 latitude degrees () is considered "average sized". "Very large" tropical cyclones have a radius of greater than 8 degrees ().
Observations indicate that size is only weakly correlated to variables such as storm intensity (i.e. maximum wind speed), radius of maximum wind, latitude, and maximum potential intensity.
Typhoon Tip is the largest cyclone on record, with tropical storm-force winds in diameter. The smallest storm on record is
Tropical Storm Marco (2008)
Tropical Storm Marco was the smallest tropical cyclone on record by radius of winds from center. The thirteenth named storm of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, Marco developed out of a broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean ...
, which generated tropical storm-force winds only in diameter.
Movement
The movement of a tropical cyclone (i.e. its "track") is typically approximated as the sum of two terms: "steering" by the background environmental wind and "beta drift".
Some tropical cyclones can move across large distances, such as
Hurricane John, the longest-lasting tropical cyclone on record, which traveled , the longest track of any Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone, over its 31-day lifespan in
1994
File:1994 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: The 1994 Winter Olympics are held in Lillehammer, Norway; The Kaiser Permanente building after the 1994 Northridge earthquake; A model of the MS Estonia, which Sinking of the MS Estonia, sank in ...
.
Environmental steering
Environmental steering is the primary influence on the motion of tropical cyclones.
It represents the movement of the storm due to prevailing winds and other wider environmental conditions, similar to "leaves carried along by a stream".
Physically, the winds, or
flow field
Flow may refer to:
Science and technology
* Fluid flow, the motion of a gas or liquid
* Flow (geomorphology), a type of mass wasting or slope movement in geomorphology
* Flow (mathematics), a group action of the real numbers on a set
* Flow (psych ...
, in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone may be treated as having two parts: the flow associated with the storm itself, and the large-scale background flow of the environment.
Tropical cyclones can be treated as local maxima of
vorticity
In continuum mechanics, vorticity is a pseudovector field that describes the local spinning motion of a continuum near some point (the tendency of something to rotate), as would be seen by an observer located at that point and traveling along wit ...
suspended within the large-scale background flow of the environment.
In this way, tropical cyclone motion may be represented to first-order as
advection
In the field of physics, engineering, and earth sciences, advection is the transport of a substance or quantity by bulk motion of a fluid. The properties of that substance are carried with it. Generally the majority of the advected substance is al ...
of the storm by the local
environmental flow
Environmental flows describe the quantity, timing, and quality of water flows required to sustain freshwater and estuarine ecosystems and the human livelihoods and well being that depend on these ecosystems. In the Indian context river flows requir ...
.
This environmental flow is termed the "steering flow" and is the dominant influence on tropical cyclone motion.
The strength and direction of the steering flow can be approximated as a vertical integration of the winds blowing horizontally in the cyclone's vicinity, weighted by the altitude at which those winds are occurring. Because winds can vary with height, determining the steering flow precisely can be difficult.
The
pressure altitude Pressure altitude is the altitude in the International Standard Atmosphere (ISA) with the same atmospheric pressure as that of the part of the atmosphere in question.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published the follow ...
at which the background winds are most correlated with a tropical cyclone's motion is known as the "steering level".
The motion of stronger tropical cyclones is more correlated with the background flow averaged across a thicker portion of
troposphere
The troposphere is the first and lowest layer of the atmosphere of the Earth, and contains 75% of the total mass of the planetary atmosphere, 99% of the total mass of water vapour and aerosols, and is where most weather phenomena occur. From ...
compared to weaker tropical cyclones whose motion is more correlated with the background flow averaged across a narrower extent of the lower troposphere.
When wind shear and
latent heat
Latent heat (also known as latent energy or heat of transformation) is energy released or absorbed, by a body or a thermodynamic system, during a constant-temperature process — usually a first-order phase transition.
Latent heat can be understo ...
release is present, tropical cyclones tend to move towards regions where
potential vorticity
In fluid mechanics, potential vorticity (PV) is a quantity which is proportional to the dot product of vorticity and stratification. This quantity, following a parcel of air or water, can only be changed by diabatic or frictional processes. It i ...
is increasing most quickly.
Climatologically, tropical cyclones are steered primarily westward by the east-to-west
trade winds
The trade winds or easterlies are the permanent east-to-west prevailing winds that flow in the Earth's equatorial region. The trade winds blow mainly from the northeast in the Northern Hemisphere and from the southeast in the Southern Hemisph ...
on the equatorial side of the
subtropical ridge
The horse latitudes are the latitudes about 30 degrees north and south of the Equator. They are characterized by sunny skies, calm winds, and very little precipitation. They are also known as Subtropics, subtropical ridges, or highs. It is a h ...
—a persistent high-pressure area over the world's subtropical oceans.
In the tropical North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific oceans, the trade winds steer
tropical easterly waves westward from the African coast toward the Caribbean Sea, North America, and ultimately into the central Pacific Ocean before the waves dampen out.
These waves are the precursors to many tropical cyclones within this region.
In contrast, in the
Indian Ocean
The Indian Ocean is the third-largest of the world's five oceanic divisions, covering or ~19.8% of the water on Earth's surface. It is bounded by Asia to the north, Africa to the west and Australia to the east. To the south it is bounded by th ...
and Western Pacific in both hemispheres, tropical
cyclogenesis
Cyclogenesis is the development or strengthening of cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere (a low-pressure area). Cyclogenesis is an umbrella term for at least three different processes, all of which result in the development of some sort of cyc ...
is influenced less by tropical easterly waves and more by the seasonal movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the
monsoon trough
The monsoon trough is a portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Western Pacific,Bin WangThe Asian Monsoon.Retrieved 2008-05-03. as depicted by a line on a weather map showing the locations of minimum sea level pressure, and as such, ...
.
Other weather systems such as mid-latitude
trough
Trough may refer to:
In science
* Trough (geology), a long depression less steep than a trench
* Trough (meteorology), an elongated region of low atmospheric pressure
* Trough (physics), the lowest point on a wave
* Trough level (medicine), the l ...
s and broad monsoon gyres can also influence tropical cyclone motion by modifying the steering flow.
Beta drift
In addition to environmental steering, a tropical cyclone will tend to drift poleward and westward, a motion known as "beta drift".
This motion is due to the superposition of a vortex, such as a tropical cyclone, onto an environment in which the
Coriolis force
In physics, the Coriolis force is an inertial or fictitious force that acts on objects in motion within a frame of reference that rotates with respect to an inertial frame. In a reference frame with clockwise rotation, the force acts to the ...
varies with latitude, such as on a sphere or
beta plane
In geophysical fluid dynamics, an approximation whereby the Coriolis parameter, ''f'', is set to vary linearly in space is called a beta plane approximation.
On a rotating sphere such as the Earth, ''f'' varies with the sine of latitude; in the so ...
.
The magnitude of the component of tropical cyclone motion associated with the beta drift ranges between and tends to be larger for more intense tropical cyclones and at higher latitudes. It is induced indirectly by the storm itself as a result of feedback between the cyclonic flow of the storm and its environment.
Physically, the cyclonic circulation of the storm advects environmental air poleward east of center and equatorial west of center. Because air must conserve its
angular momentum
In physics, angular momentum (rarely, moment of momentum or rotational momentum) is the rotational analog of linear momentum. It is an important physical quantity because it is a conserved quantity—the total angular momentum of a closed syst ...
, this flow configuration induces a cyclonic gyre equatorward and westward of the storm center and an anticyclonic gyre poleward and eastward of the storm center. The combined flow of these gyres acts to advect the storm slowly poleward and westward. This effect occurs even if there is zero environmental flow.
Due to a direct dependence of the beta drift on angular momentum, the size of a tropical cyclone can impact the influence of beta drift on its motion; beta drift imparts a greater influence on the movement of larger tropical cyclones than that of smaller ones.
Multiple storm interaction
A third component of motion that occurs relatively infrequently involves the interaction of multiple tropical cyclones. When two cyclones approach one another, their centers will begin orbiting cyclonically about a point between the two systems. Depending on their separation distance and strength, the two vortices may simply orbit around one another, or else may spiral into the center point and merge. When the two vortices are of unequal size, the larger vortex will tend to dominate the interaction, and the smaller vortex will orbit around it. This phenomenon is called the Fujiwhara effect, after
Sakuhei Fujiwhara
was a Japanese meteorologist who became the namesake for the Fujiwhara effect. Novelist Jirō Nitta is his nephew and mathematician Masahiko Fujiwara is his grandnephew.
Biography Early life
Born in the city of Suwa, Nagano Prefecture, Fujiwha ...
.
Interaction with the mid-latitude westerlies
![Ioke 2006 track](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/95/Ioke_2006_track.png)
Though a tropical cyclone typically moves from east to west in the tropics, its track may shift poleward and eastward either as it moves west of the subtropical ridge axis or else if it interacts with the mid-latitude flow, such as the
jet stream
Jet streams are fast flowing, narrow, meandering thermal wind, air currents in the Atmosphere of Earth, atmospheres of some planets, including Earth. On Earth, the main jet streams are located near the altitude of the tropopause and are west ...
or an
extratropical cyclone
Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are low-pressure areas which, along with the anticyclones of high-pressure areas, drive the weather over much of the Earth. Extratropical cyclones are capable of ...
. This motion, termed "
recurvature
The westerlies, anti-trades, or prevailing westerlies, are prevailing winds from the west toward the east in the middle latitudes between 30 and 60 degrees latitude. They originate from the high-pressure areas in the horse latitudes and trend to ...
", commonly occurs near the western edge of the major ocean basins, where the jet stream typically has a poleward component and extratropical cyclones are common. An example of tropical cyclone recurvature was
Typhoon Ioke in 2006.
Formation regions and warning centers
The majority of tropical cyclones each year form in one of seven tropical cyclone basins, which are monitored by a variety of meteorological services and warning centres.
Ten of these warning centres worldwide are designated as either a
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre
A Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) is responsible for the distribution of information, advisories, and warnings regarding the specific program they have a part of, agreed by consensus at the World Meteorological Organization as p ...
or a
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
A Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) is responsible for the distribution of information, advisories, and warnings regarding the specific program they have a part of, agreed by consensus at the World Meteorological Organization as p ...
by the
World Meteorological Organisation
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology and geophysics.
The WMO originated from the Internatio ...
's (WMO) tropical cyclone programme.
These warning centres issue advisories which provide basic information and cover a systems present, forecast position, movement and intensity, in their designated areas of responsibility.
Meteorological services around the world are generally responsible for issuing warnings for their own country, however, there are exceptions, as the United States National Hurricane Center and Fiji Meteorological Service issue alerts, watches and warnings for various island nations in their areas of responsibility.
The United States
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
The Joint typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is a joint United States Navy – United States Air Force command in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The JTWC is responsible for the issuing of tropical cyclone warnings in the North-West Pacific Ocean, South P ...
and Fleet Weather Center also publicly issue warnings, about tropical cyclones on behalf of the
United States Government
The federal government of the United States (U.S. federal government or U.S. government) is the national government of the United States, a federal republic located primarily in North America, composed of 50 states, a city within a fede ...
.
The
Brazilian Navy
)
, colors= Blue and white
, colors_label= Colors
, march= "Cisne Branco" ( en, "White Swan") (same name as training ship ''Cisne Branco''
, mascot=
, equipment= 1 multipurpose aircraft carrier7 submarines6 frigates2 corvettes4 amphibious warf ...
Hydrographic Center names
South Atlantic tropical cyclone
South Atlantic tropical cyclones are unusual weather events that occur in the Southern Hemisphere. Strong wind shear, which disrupts the formation of cyclones, as well as a lack of weather disturbances favorable for development in the South Atl ...
s, however the South Atlantic is not a major basin, and not an official basin according to the WMO.
Preparations
Ahead of the formal season starting, people are urged to prepare for the effects of a tropical cyclone by politicians and weather forecasters, amongst others. They prepare by determining their risk to the different types of weather, tropical cyclones cause, checking their insurance coverage and emergency supplies, as well as determining where to evacuate to if needed.
When a tropical cyclone develops and is forecast to impact land, each member nation of the
World Meteorological Organization
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology and geophysics.
The WMO originated from the Internati ...
issues various
watches and warnings to cover the expected impacts.
However, there are some exceptions with the United States National Hurricane Center and Fiji Meteorological Service responsible for issuing or recommending warnings for other nations in their area of responsibility.
Impacts
Natural phenomena caused or worsened by tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclones out at sea cause large waves,
heavy rain
''Heavy Rain'' is a 2010 adventure game developed by Quantic Dream and published by Sony Computer Entertainment. The game features four protagonists involved with the mystery of the Origami Killer, a serial murderer who uses extended periods ...
,
flood
A flood is an overflow of water ( or rarely other fluids) that submerges land that is usually dry. In the sense of "flowing water", the word may also be applied to the inflow of the tide. Floods are an area of study of the discipline hydrol ...
s and high winds, disrupting international shipping and, at times, causing shipwrecks.
Tropical cyclones stir up water, leaving a cool wake behind them, which causes the region to be less favorable for subsequent tropical cyclones.
On land, strong
wind
Wind is the natural movement of air or other gases relative to a planet's surface. Winds occur on a range of scales, from thunderstorm flows lasting tens of minutes, to local breezes generated by heating of land surfaces and lasting a few hou ...
s can damage or destroy vehicles, buildings, bridges, and other outside objects, turning loose debris into deadly flying projectiles. The
storm surge
A storm surge, storm flood, tidal surge, or storm tide is a coastal flood or tsunami-like phenomenon of rising water commonly associated with low-pressure weather systems, such as cyclones. It is measured as the rise in water level above the n ...
, or the increase in sea level due to the cyclone, is typically the worst effect from landfalling tropical cyclones, historically resulting in 90% of tropical cyclone deaths.
Cyclone Mahina
Cyclone Mahina was the deadliest cyclone in recorded Australian history, and also likely the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere. Mahina struck Bathurst Bay, Cape York Peninsula, Queensland, on 4 March 1899, ...
produced the highest storm surge on record, , at
Bathurst Bay
Bathurst Bay is a bay in the localities of Lakefield and Starcke in the Shire of Cook, Queensland, Australia. In the 19th century it was the base for the pearling fleet. It is now a tourist attraction on Cape York Peninsula in northern Que ...
,
Queensland
)
, nickname = Sunshine State
, image_map = Queensland in Australia.svg
, map_caption = Location of Queensland in Australia
, subdivision_type = Country
, subdivision_name = Australia
, established_title = Before federation
, established_ ...
,
Australia
Australia, officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a Sovereign state, sovereign country comprising the mainland of the Australia (continent), Australian continent, the island of Tasmania, and numerous List of islands of Australia, sma ...
, in March 1899. Other ocean-based hazards that tropical cyclones produce are
rip current
A rip current, often simply called a rip (or misleadingly a ''rip tide''), is a specific kind of water current that can occur near beaches with breaking waves. A rip is a strong, localized, and narrow current of water which moves directly away ...
s and
undertow. These hazards can occur hundreds of kilometers (hundreds of miles) away from the center of a cyclone, even if other weather conditions are favorable.
The broad rotation of a landfalling tropical cyclone, and vertical wind shear at its periphery, spawns
tornadoes
A tornado is a violently rotating column of air that is in contact with both the surface of the Earth and a cumulonimbus cloud or, in rare cases, the base of a cumulus cloud. It is often referred to as a twister, whirlwind or cyclone, altho ...
. Tornadoes can also be spawned as a result of
eyewall mesovortices
The eye is a region of mostly calm weather at the center of tropical cyclones. The eye of a storm is a roughly circular area, typically in diameter. It is surrounded by the ''eyewall'', a ring of towering thunderstorms where the most severe weat ...
, which persist until landfall.
Hurricane Ivan produced 120 tornadoes, more than any other tropical cyclone. Lightning activity is produced within tropical cyclones; this activity is more intense within stronger storms and closer to and within the storm's eyewall. Tropical cyclones can increase the amount of snowfall a region experiences by delivering additional moisture. Wildfires can be worsened when a nearby storm fans their flames with its strong winds.
Impact on property and human life
![1980- Cost of billion dollar hurricanes - US - variwide chart - NOAA data](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c8/1980-_Cost_of_billion_dollar_hurricanes_-_US_-_variwide_chart_-_NOAA_data.svg)
Tropical cyclones regularly affect the coastlines of most of
Earth
Earth is the third planet from the Sun and the only astronomical object known to harbor life. While large volumes of water can be found throughout the Solar System, only Earth sustains liquid surface water. About 71% of Earth's surfa ...
's major bodies of water along the
Atlantic
The Atlantic Ocean is the second-largest of the world's five oceans, with an area of about . It covers approximately 20% of Earth's surface and about 29% of its water surface area. It is known to separate the " Old World" of Africa, Europe an ...
,
Pacific
The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest of Earth's five oceanic divisions. It extends from the Arctic Ocean in the north to the Southern Ocean (or, depending on definition, to Antarctica) in the south, and is bounded by the continen ...
, and
Indian
Indian or Indians may refer to:
Peoples South Asia
* Indian people, people of Indian nationality, or people who have an Indian ancestor
** Non-resident Indian, a citizen of India who has temporarily emigrated to another country
* South Asia ...
oceans. Tropical cyclones have caused significant destruction and loss of human life, resulting in about 2 million deaths since the 19th century.
Large areas of standing water caused by flooding lead to
infection
An infection is the invasion of tissues by pathogens, their multiplication, and the reaction of host tissues to the infectious agent and the toxins they produce. An infectious disease, also known as a transmissible disease or communicable dise ...
, as well as contributing to
mosquito-borne illnesses. Crowded evacuees in
shelters increase the risk of disease propagation.
Tropical cyclones significantly interrupt infrastructure, leading to
power outages
A power outage (also called a powercut, a power out, a power failure, a power blackout, a power loss, or a blackout) is the loss of the electrical power network supply to an end user.
There are many causes of power failures in an electricity ...
, bridge and road destruction, and the hampering of reconstruction efforts.
Winds and water from storms can damage or destroy homes, buildings, and other manmade structures. Tropical cyclones destroy agriculture, kill livestock, and prevent access to marketplaces for both buyers and sellers; both of these result in financial losses. Powerful cyclones that make
landfall
Landfall is the event of a storm moving over land after being over water. More broadly, and in relation to human travel, it refers to 'the first land that is reached or seen at the end of a journey across the sea or through the air, or the fact ...
– moving from the ocean to over land – are some of the most impactful, although that is not always the case. An average of 86 tropical cyclones of tropical storm intensity form annually worldwide, with 47 reaching hurricane or typhoon strength, and 20 becoming intense tropical cyclones, super typhoons, or major hurricanes (at least of
Category 3 intensity).
In
Africa
Africa is the world's second-largest and second-most populous continent, after Asia in both cases. At about 30.3 million km2 (11.7 million square miles) including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of Earth's total surface area ...
, tropical cyclones can originate from
tropical wave
A tropical wave (also called easterly wave, tropical easterly wave, and African easterly wave), in and around the Atlantic Ocean, is a type of atmospheric trough, an elongated area of relatively low air pressure, oriented north to south, which ...
s generated over the
Sahara Desert
, photo = Sahara real color.jpg
, photo_caption = The Sahara taken by Apollo 17 astronauts, 1972
, map =
, map_image =
, location =
, country =
, country1 =
, ...
, or otherwise strike the
Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa (HoA), also known as the Somali Peninsula, is a large peninsula and geopolitical region in East Africa.Robert Stock, ''Africa South of the Sahara, Second Edition: A Geographical Interpretation'', (The Guilford Press; 2004), ...
and
Southern Africa
Southern Africa is the southernmost subregion of the African continent, south of the Congo and Tanzania. The physical location is the large part of Africa to the south of the extensive Congo River basin. Southern Africa is home to a number of ...
.
Cyclone Idai
Intense Tropical Cyclone Idai () was one of the worst tropical cyclones on record to affect Africa and the Southern Hemisphere. The long-lived storm caused catastrophic damage, and a humanitarian crisis in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Malawi, lea ...
in March 2019 hit central
Mozambique
Mozambique (), officially the Republic of Mozambique ( pt, Moçambique or , ; ny, Mozambiki; sw, Msumbiji; ts, Muzambhiki), is a country located in southeastern Africa bordered by the Indian Ocean to the east, Tanzania to the north, Malawi ...
, becoming the deadliest tropical cyclone on record in Africa, with 1,302 fatalities, and damage estimated at US$2.2 billion.
Réunion
Réunion (; french: La Réunion, ; previously ''Île Bourbon''; rcf, label= Reunionese Creole, La Rényon) is an island in the Indian Ocean that is an overseas department and region of France. It is located approximately east of the island ...
island, located east of Southern Africa, experiences some of the wettest tropical cyclones on record. In January 1980,
Cyclone Hyacinthe
Tropical Cyclone Hyacinthe was the wettest tropical cyclone on record worldwide. The eighth named storm of the season, Hyacinthe formed on January 15, 1980, to the northeast of Mauritius in the southern Indian Ocean. Initially it moved to t ...
produced 6,083 mm (239.5 in) of rain over 15 days, which was the largest rain total recorded from a tropical cyclone on record. In
Asia
Asia (, ) is one of the world's most notable geographical regions, which is either considered a continent in its own right or a subcontinent of Eurasia, which shares the continental landmass of Afro-Eurasia with Africa. Asia covers an area ...
, tropical cyclones from the Indian and Pacific oceans regularly affect some of the most populated countries on Earth. In 1970,
a cyclone struck
Bangladesh
Bangladesh (}, ), officially the People's Republic of Bangladesh, is a country in South Asia. It is the eighth-most populous country in the world, with a population exceeding 165 million people in an area of . Bangladesh is among the mos ...
, then known as East Pakistan, producing a storm surge that killed at least 300,000 people; this made it the deadliest tropical cyclone on record.
In October 2019,
Typhoon Hagibis
Typhoon Hagibis, known in Japan as Typhoon No.19 or , was a large and costly tropical cyclone that caused widespread destruction in Japan. The thirty-eighth depression, ninth typhoon, and third super typhoon of the 2019 Pacific typhoon season, ...
struck the
Japan
Japan ( ja, 日本, or , and formally , ''Nihonkoku'') is an island country in East Asia. It is situated in the northwest Pacific Ocean, and is bordered on the west by the Sea of Japan, while extending from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north ...
ese island of
Honshu
, historically called , is the largest and most populous island of Japan. It is located south of Hokkaidō across the Tsugaru Strait, north of Shikoku across the Inland Sea, and northeast of Kyūshū across the Kanmon Straits. The island separ ...
and inflicted US$15 billion in damage, making it the costliest storm on record in Japan. The islands that comprise
Oceania
Oceania (, , ) is a region, geographical region that includes Australasia, Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia. Spanning the Eastern Hemisphere, Eastern and Western Hemisphere, Western hemispheres, Oceania is estimated to have a land area of ...
, from
Australia
Australia, officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a Sovereign state, sovereign country comprising the mainland of the Australia (continent), Australian continent, the island of Tasmania, and numerous List of islands of Australia, sma ...
to
French Polynesia
)Territorial motto: ( en, "Great Tahiti of the Golden Haze")
, anthem =
, song_type = Regional anthem
, song = " Ia Ora 'O Tahiti Nui"
, image_map = French Polynesia on the globe (French Polynesia centered).svg
, map_alt = Location of Frenc ...
, are routinely affected by tropical cyclones. In
Indonesia
Indonesia, officially the Republic of Indonesia, is a country in Southeast Asia and Oceania between the Indian and Pacific oceans. It consists of over 17,000 islands, including Sumatra, Java, Sulawesi, and parts of Borneo and New Guine ...
,
a cyclone struck the island of
Flores
Flores is one of the Lesser Sunda Islands, a group of islands in the eastern half of Indonesia. Including the Komodo Islands off its west coast (but excluding the Solor Archipelago to the east of Flores), the land area is 15,530.58 km2, and th ...
in April 1973, killing 1,653 people, making it the deadliest tropical cyclone recorded in the
Southern Hemisphere.
Atlantic
The Atlantic Ocean is the second-largest of the world's five oceans, with an area of about . It covers approximately 20% of Earth's surface and about 29% of its water surface area. It is known to separate the " Old World" of Africa, Europe an ...
and
Pacific hurricanes
A Pacific hurricane is a mature tropical cyclone that develops within the northeastern and central Pacific Ocean to the east of 180°W, north of the equator. For tropical cyclone warning purposes, the northern Pacific is divided into three regio ...
regularly affect
North America
North America is a continent in the Northern Hemisphere and almost entirely within the Western Hemisphere. It is bordered to the north by the Arctic Ocean, to the east by the Atlantic Ocean, to the southeast by South America and the Car ...
. In the
United States
The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country primarily located in North America. It consists of 50 states, a federal district, five major unincorporated territorie ...
, hurricanes
Katrina
Katrina or Katrine may refer to:
People
* Katrina (given name)
* Katrine (given name)
Meteorology
* List of storms named Katrina, a list of tropical cyclones designated as Katrina
** Hurricane Katrina, an exceptionally powerful Atlantic hurrican ...
in 2005 and
Harvey
Harvey, Harveys or Harvey's may refer to:
Arts, entertainment, and media
* ''Harvey'' (play), a 1944 play by Mary Chase about a man befriended by an invisible anthropomorphic rabbit
* Harvey Awards ("Harveys"), one of the most important awards ...
in 2017 are the country's costliest ever natural disasters, with monetary damage estimated at US$125 billion. Katrina struck
Louisiana
Louisiana , group=pronunciation (French: ''La Louisiane'') is a state in the Deep South and South Central regions of the United States. It is the 20th-smallest by area and the 25th most populous of the 50 U.S. states. Louisiana is borde ...
and largely destroyed the city of
,
while Harvey caused significant flooding in southeastern
Texas
Texas (, ; Spanish language, Spanish: ''Texas'', ''Tejas'') is a state in the South Central United States, South Central region of the United States. At 268,596 square miles (695,662 km2), and with more than 29.1 million residents in 2 ...
after it dropped of rainfall; this was the highest rainfall total on record in the country.
Europe
Europe is a large peninsula conventionally considered a continent in its own right because of its great physical size and the weight of its history and traditions. Europe is also considered a Continent#Subcontinents, subcontinent of Eurasia ...
is rarely affected by tropical cyclones; however, the continent regularly encounters storms after they transitioned into
extratropical cyclone
Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are low-pressure areas which, along with the anticyclones of high-pressure areas, drive the weather over much of the Earth. Extratropical cyclones are capable of ...
s. Only one tropical depression –
Vince
Vince is a given name, it is the anglicisation and shortened form of the name Vincent, as well as a surname.
It may refer to:
Given name People
* Vince Agnew (born 1987), American football player
* Vince Cable (born 1943), British politician ...
in 2005 – struck
Spain
, image_flag = Bandera de España.svg
, image_coat = Escudo de España (mazonado).svg
, national_motto = ''Plus ultra'' (Latin)(English: "Further Beyond")
, national_anthem = (English: "Royal March")
, i ...
, and only one
subtropical cyclone
A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of both tropical cyclone, tropical and an extratropical cyclone.
As early as the 1950s, meteorologists were uncertain whether they should be characterized as Tropical cyclo ...
–
Subtropical Storm Alpha The name Alpha or Alfa has been used for three subtropical cyclones and one tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean:
* Subtropical Storm Alpha (1972), pre-season storm that made landfall in Georgia
* Subtropical Storm Alfa (1973), briefly threatened ...
in 2020 – struck
Portugal
Portugal, officially the Portuguese Republic ( pt, República Portuguesa, links=yes ), is a country whose mainland is located on the Iberian Peninsula of Southwestern Europe, and whose territory also includes the Atlantic archipelagos of ...
. Occasionally, there are
tropical-like cyclones in the
Mediterranean Sea
The Mediterranean Sea is a sea connected to the Atlantic Ocean, surrounded by the Mediterranean Basin and almost completely enclosed by land: on the north by Western and Southern Europe and Anatolia, on the south by North Africa, and on the ea ...
. The northern portion of
South America
South America is a continent entirely in the Western Hemisphere and mostly in the Southern Hemisphere, with a relatively small portion in the Northern Hemisphere at the northern tip of the continent. It can also be described as the southe ...
experiences occasional tropical cyclones, with 173 fatalities from
Tropical Storm Bret The name Bret has been used for seven tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean.
* Tropical Storm Bret (1981), made landfall in southern Maryland, no real damage
* Tropical Storm Bret (1987), short-lived storm, remained in the eastern Atlantic Ocean
* ...
in August 1993. The
South Atlantic Ocean
The Atlantic Ocean is the second-largest of the world's five oceans, with an area of about . It covers approximately 20% of Earth's surface and about 29% of its water surface area. It is known to separate the "Old World" of Africa, Europe and ...
is generally inhospitable to the formation of a tropical storm. However, in March 2004,
Hurricane Catarina
Hurricane Catarina, or Cyclone Catarina () was an extraordinarily rare South Atlantic tropical cyclone, the only recorded hurricane strength storm on record in the South Atlantic Ocean. Catarina made landfall on South Brazil at peak intensity, ...
struck southeastern
Brazil
Brazil ( pt, Brasil; ), officially the Federative Republic of Brazil (Portuguese: ), is the largest country in both South America and Latin America. At and with over 217 million people, Brazil is the world's fifth-largest country by area ...
as the first hurricane on record in the South Atlantic Ocean.
Environmental impact
Although cyclones take an enormous toll in lives and personal property, they may be important factors in the
precipitation
In meteorology, precipitation is any product of the condensation of atmospheric water vapor that falls under gravitational pull from clouds. The main forms of precipitation include drizzle, rain, sleet, snow, ice pellets, graupel and hail. ...
regimes of places they impact, as they may bring much-needed precipitation to otherwise dry regions.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (abbreviated as NOAA ) is an United States scientific and regulatory agency within the United States Department of Commerce that forecasts weather, monitors oceanic and atmospheric conditio ...
2005 Tropical Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Outlook.
. Retrieved May 2, 2006. Their precipitation may also alleviate drought conditions by restoring soil moisture, though one study focused on the
Southeastern United States
The Southeastern United States, also referred to as the American Southeast or simply the Southeast, is a geographical region of the United States. It is located broadly on the eastern portion of the southern United States and the southern por ...
suggested tropical cyclones did not offer significant drought recovery.
Tropical cyclones also help maintain the global heat balance by moving warm, moist tropical air to the
middle latitudes
The middle latitudes (also called the mid-latitudes, sometimes midlatitudes, or moderate latitudes) are a spatial region on Earth located between the Tropic of Cancer (latitudes 23°26'22") to the Arctic Circle (66°33'39"), and Tropic of Caprico ...
and
polar regions
The polar regions, also called the frigid zones or polar zones, of Earth are the regions of the planet that surround its geographical poles (the North and South Poles), lying within the polar circles. These high latitudes are dominated by float ...
,
and by regulating the
thermohaline circulation
Thermohaline circulation (THC) is a part of the large-scale ocean circulation that is driven by global density gradients created by surface heat and freshwater fluxes. The adjective ''thermohaline'' derives from '' thermo-'' referring to temper ...
through
upwelling
Upwelling is an oceanographic phenomenon that involves wind-driven motion of dense, cooler, and usually nutrient-rich water from deep water towards the ocean surface. It replaces the warmer and usually nutrient-depleted surface water. The nutr ...
. The storm surge and winds of hurricanes may be destructive to human-made structures, but they also stir up the waters of coastal
estuaries
An estuary is a partially enclosed coastal body of brackish water with one or more rivers or streams flowing into it, and with a free connection to the open sea. Estuaries form a transition zone between river environments and maritime environment ...
, which are typically important
fish breeding locales.
Ecosystems, such as
saltmarsh
A salt marsh or saltmarsh, also known as a coastal salt marsh or a tidal marsh, is a coastal ecosystem in the upper coastal intertidal zone between land and open saltwater or brackish water that is regularly flooded by the tides. It is dominated ...
es and
Mangrove forest
Mangrove forests, also called mangrove swamps, mangrove thickets or mangals, are productive wetlands that occur in coastal intertidal zones. Mangrove forests grow mainly at tropical and subtropical latitudes because mangroves cannot withstand fr ...
s, can be severely damaged or destroyed by tropical cyclones, which erode land and destroy vegetation. Tropical cyclones can cause harmful
algae blooms
An algal bloom or algae bloom is a rapid increase or accumulation in the population of algae in freshwater or marine water systems. It is often recognized by the discoloration in the water from the algae's pigments. The term ''algae'' encompa ...
to form in bodies of water by increasing the amount of nutrients available.
Insect populations can decrease in both quantity and diversity after the passage of storms. Strong winds associated with tropical cyclones and their remnants are capable of felling thousands of trees, causing damage to forests.
When hurricanes surge upon shore from the ocean, salt is introduced to many freshwater areas and raises the
salinity
Salinity () is the saltiness or amount of salt dissolved in a body of water, called saline water (see also soil salinity). It is usually measured in g/L or g/kg (grams of salt per liter/kilogram of water; the latter is dimensionless and equal ...
levels too high for some habitats to withstand. Some are able to cope with the salt and recycle it back into the ocean, but others can not release the extra surface water quickly enough or do not have a large enough freshwater source to replace it. Because of this, some species of plants and vegetation die due to the excess salt. In addition, hurricanes can carry
toxins
A toxin is a naturally occurring organic poison produced by metabolic activities of living cells or organisms. Toxins occur especially as a protein or conjugated protein. The term toxin was first used by organic chemist Ludwig Brieger (1849–1 ...
and
acids
In computer science, ACID ( atomicity, consistency, isolation, durability) is a set of properties of database transactions intended to guarantee data validity despite errors, power failures, and other mishaps. In the context of databases, a sequ ...
onshore when they make landfall. The floodwater can pick up the toxins from different spills and contaminate the land that it passes over. These toxins are harmful to the people and animals in the area, as well as the environment around them. Tropical cyclones can cause
oil spills
An oil spill is the release of a liquid petroleum hydrocarbon into the environment, especially the marine ecosystem, due to human activity, and is a form of pollution. The term is usually given to marine oil spills, where oil is released into th ...
by damaging or destroying pipelines and storage facilities.
Similarly, chemical spills have been reported when chemical and processing facilities were damaged.
Waterways have become contaminated with toxic levels of metals such as
nickel
Nickel is a chemical element with symbol Ni and atomic number 28. It is a silvery-white lustrous metal with a slight golden tinge. Nickel is a hard and ductile transition metal. Pure nickel is chemically reactive but large pieces are slow to ...
,
chromium
Chromium is a chemical element with the symbol Cr and atomic number 24. It is the first element in group 6. It is a steely-grey, lustrous, hard, and brittle transition metal.
Chromium metal is valued for its high corrosion resistance and hardne ...
, and
mercury
Mercury commonly refers to:
* Mercury (planet), the nearest planet to the Sun
* Mercury (element), a metallic chemical element with the symbol Hg
* Mercury (mythology), a Roman god
Mercury or The Mercury may also refer to:
Companies
* Merc ...
during tropical cyclones.
Tropical cyclones can have an extensive effect on geography, such as creating or destroying land.
Cyclone Bebe
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bebe, also known as Hurricane Bebe, was a pre-season storm during October 1972 in the South Pacific Ocean that severely affected Fiji, the Ellice Islands (now Tuvalu), and the Gilbert Islands (now Kiribati).
Meteorologica ...
increased the size of
Tuvalu
Tuvalu ( or ; formerly known as the Ellice Islands) is an island country and microstate in the Polynesian subregion of Oceania in the Pacific Ocean. Its islands are situated about midway between Hawaii and Australia. They lie east-northeast ...
island,
Funafuti Atoll
Funafuti is the capital of the island nation of Tuvalu. It has a population of 6,320 people (2017 census), and so it has more people than the rest of Tuvalu combined, with approximately 60% of the population. It consists of a narrow sweep of lan ...
, by nearly 20%.
Hurricane Walaka
Hurricane Walaka was a Category 5 hurricane that brought high surf and a powerful storm surge to the Hawaiian Islands. Walaka was the nineteenth named storm, twelfth hurricane, eighth major hurricane, and second Category 5 hurricane ...
destroyed the small
East Island in 2018,
which destroyed the habitat for the endangered
Hawaiian monk seal
The Hawaiian monk seal (''Neomonachus schauinslandi'') is an endangered species of earless seal in the family Phocidae that is endemic to the Hawaiian Islands.
The Hawaiian monk seal is one of two extant monk seal species; the other is the Med ...
, as well as, threatened
sea turtle
Sea turtles (superfamily Chelonioidea), sometimes called marine turtles, are reptiles of the order Testudines and of the suborder Cryptodira. The seven existing species of sea turtles are the flatback, green, hawksbill, leatherback, loggerhead, ...
s and
seabird
Seabirds (also known as marine birds) are birds that are adapted to life within the marine environment. While seabirds vary greatly in lifestyle, behaviour and physiology, they often exhibit striking convergent evolution, as the same enviro ...
s.
Landslide
Landslides, also known as landslips, are several forms of mass wasting that may include a wide range of ground movements, such as rockfalls, deep-seated grade (slope), slope failures, mudflows, and debris flows. Landslides occur in a variety of ...
s frequently occur during tropical cyclones and can vastly alter landscapes; some storms are capable of causing hundreds to tens of thousands of landslides. Storms can erode coastlines over an extensive area and transport the sediment to other locations.
Response
![DSS Supports Hurricane Dorian Relief Efforts in the Bahamas (49091289561)](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/52/DSS_Supports_Hurricane_Dorian_Relief_Efforts_in_the_Bahamas_%2849091289561%29.jpg)
Hurricane response is the
disaster response
Disaster response is the second phase of the disaster management cycle. It consists of a number of elements, for example; warning/evacuation, search and rescue, providing immediate assistance, assessing damage, continuing assistance and the imme ...
after a hurricane. Activities performed by hurricane responders include assessment, restoration, and demolition of buildings; removal of
debris
Debris (, ) is rubble, wreckage, ruins, litter and discarded garbage/refuse/trash, scattered remains of something destroyed, or, as in geology, large rock fragments left by a melting glacier, etc. Depending on context, ''debris'' can refer to ...
and waste; repairs to land-based and maritime
infrastructure
Infrastructure is the set of facilities and systems that serve a country, city, or other area, and encompasses the services and facilities necessary for its economy, households and firms to function. Infrastructure is composed of public and priv ...
; and public health services including
search and rescue
Search and rescue (SAR) is the search for and provision of aid to people who are in distress or imminent danger. The general field of search and rescue includes many specialty sub-fields, typically determined by the type of terrain the search ...
operations. Hurricane response requires coordination between federal, tribal, state, local, and private entities. According to the
National Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster
The National Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster (National VOAD, or NVOAD) is a coalition of the major national voluntary organizations in the United States that have made disaster-related work a priority. National VOAD member agencies provi ...
, potential response volunteers should affiliate with established organizations and should not self-deploy, so that proper training and support can be provided to mitigate the danger and stress of response work.
Hurricane responders face many hazards. Hurricane responders may be exposed to chemical and biological contaminants including stored chemicals,
sewage
Sewage (or domestic sewage, domestic wastewater, municipal wastewater) is a type of wastewater that is produced by a community of people. It is typically transported through a sewer system. Sewage consists of wastewater discharged from residenc ...
,
human remains Human remains may refer to:
A corpse or skeleton
* A deceased human body
** A cadaver
** A Human skeleton, skeleton
Music
* Human Remains (band), an American grindcore band
* Human Remains (Hell album), ''Human Remains'' (Hell album), 2011
* Huma ...
, and
mold
A mold () or mould () is one of the structures certain fungus, fungi can form. The dust-like, colored appearance of molds is due to the formation of Spore#Fungi, spores containing Secondary metabolite#Fungal secondary metabolites, fungal seco ...
growth encouraged by flooding,
as well as
asbestos
Asbestos () is a naturally occurring fibrous silicate mineral. There are six types, all of which are composed of long and thin fibrous crystals, each fibre being composed of many microscopic "fibrils" that can be released into the atmosphere b ...
and
lead
Lead is a chemical element with the symbol Pb (from the Latin ) and atomic number 82. It is a heavy metal that is denser than most common materials. Lead is soft and malleable, and also has a relatively low melting point. When freshly cu ...
that may be present in older buildings.
Common injuries arise from
falls from heights, such as from a ladder or from level surfaces; from
electrocution
Electrocution is death or severe injury caused by electric shock from electric current passing through the body. The word is derived from "electro" and "execution", but it is also used for accidental death.
The term "electrocution" was coined ...
in flooded areas, including from
backfeed from
portable generators
An engine–generator is the combination of an electrical generator and an engine (prime mover) mounted together to form a single piece of equipment. This combination is also called an ''engine–generator set'' or a ''gen-set''. In many contexts ...
; or from
motor vehicle accidents.
Long and irregular shifts may lead to
sleep deprivation
Sleep deprivation, also known as sleep insufficiency or sleeplessness, is the condition of not having adequate duration and/or quality of sleep to support decent alertness, performance, and health. It can be either chronic or acute and may vary ...
and
fatigue
Fatigue describes a state of tiredness that does not resolve with rest or sleep. In general usage, fatigue is synonymous with extreme tiredness or exhaustion that normally follows prolonged physical or mental activity. When it does not resolve ...
, increasing the risk of injuries, and workers may experience
mental stress associated with a traumatic incident. Additionally,
heat stress
Hyperthermia, also known simply as overheating, is a condition in which an individual's body temperature is elevated beyond normal due to failed thermoregulation. The person's body produces or absorbs more heat than it dissipates. When extreme ...
is a concern as workers are often exposed to hot and humid temperatures, wear protective clothing and equipment, and have physically difficult tasks.
Climatology
Tropical cyclones have occurred around the world for millennia. Reanalyses and research are being undertaken to extend the historical record, through the usage of
proxy data
In the study of past climates ("paleoclimatology"), climate proxies are preserved physical characteristics of the past that stand in for direct meteorological measurements and enable scientists to reconstruct the climatic conditions over a longer ...
such as overwash deposits,
beach ridges and historical documents such as diaries.
Major tropical cyclones leave traces in
overwash records and shell layers in some coastal areas, which have been used to gain insight into hurricane activity over the past thousands of years.
Sediment records in Western Australia suggest an intense tropical cyclone in the
4th millennium BC
The 4th millennium BC spanned the years 4000 BC to 3001 BC. Some of the major changes in human culture during this time included the beginning of the Bronze Age and the invention of writing, which played a major role in starting recorded history. ...
.
Proxy records based on
paleotempestological research have revealed that major hurricane activity along the
Gulf of Mexico
The Gulf of Mexico ( es, Golfo de México) is an oceanic basin, ocean basin and a marginal sea of the Atlantic Ocean, largely surrounded by the North American continent. It is bounded on the northeast, north and northwest by the Gulf Coast of ...
coast varies on timescales of centuries to millennia.
In the year 957, a powerful typhoon struck
southern China
South China () is a geographical and cultural region that covers the southernmost part of China. Its precise meaning varies with context. A notable feature of South China in comparison to the rest of China is that most of its citizens are not n ...
, killing around 10,000 people due to flooding. The
Spanish colonization of Mexico described "tempestades" in 1730,
although the official record for Pacific hurricanes only dates to 1949. In the south-west Indian Ocean, the tropical cyclone record goes back to 1848. In 2003, the
Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project
The Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration seeks to correct and add new information about past North Atlantic hurricanes. It was started around 2000 to update HURDAT, the official hurricane d ...
examined and analyzed the historical record of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic back to 1851, extending the existing database from 1886.
Before satellite imagery became available during the 20th century, many of these systems went undetected unless it impacted land or a ship encountered it by chance.
Often in part because of the threat of hurricanes, many coastal regions had sparse population between major ports until the advent of automobile tourism; therefore, the most severe portions of hurricanes striking the coast may have gone unmeasured in some instances. The combined effects of ship destruction and remote landfall severely limit the number of intense hurricanes in the official record before the era of hurricane reconnaissance aircraft and satellite meteorology. Although the record shows a distinct increase in the number and strength of intense hurricanes, therefore, experts regard the early data as suspect.
The ability of climatologists to make a long-term analysis of tropical cyclones is limited by the amount of reliable historical data. During the 1940s, routine aircraft reconnaissance started in both the Atlantic and Western Pacific basin during the mid-1940s, which provided ground truth data, however, early flights were only made once or twice a day.
Polar-orbiting weather satellites were first launched by the United States
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA ) is an independent agency of the US federal government responsible for the civil space program, aeronautics research, and space research.
NASA was established in 1958, succeeding th ...
in 1960 but were not declared operational until 1965.
However, it took several years for some of the warning centres to take advantage of this new viewing platform and develop the expertise to associate satellite signatures with storm position and intensity.
Each year on average, around 80 to 90 named tropical cyclones form around the world, of which over half develop hurricane-force winds of or more.
Worldwide, tropical cyclone activity peaks in late summer, when the difference between temperatures aloft and
sea surface temperature
Sea surface temperature (SST), or ocean surface temperature, is the ocean temperature close to the surface. The exact meaning of ''surface'' varies according to the measurement method used, but it is between and below the sea surface. Air mass ...
s is the greatest. However, each particular basin has its own seasonal patterns. On a worldwide scale, May is the least active month, while September is the most active month. November is the only month in which all the
tropical cyclone basins
Traditionally, areas of tropical cyclone formation are divided into seven basins. These include the north Atlantic Ocean, the eastern and western parts of the northern Pacific Ocean, the southwestern Pacific, the southwestern and southeastern Ind ...
are in season.
In the Northern
Atlantic Ocean
The Atlantic Ocean is the second-largest of the world's five oceans, with an area of about . It covers approximately 20% of Earth's surface and about 29% of its water surface area. It is known to separate the " Old World" of Africa, Europe ...
, a distinct
cyclone season occurs from June 1 to November 30, sharply peaking from late August through September.
The statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10. The Northeast Pacific Ocean has a broader period of activity, but in a similar time frame to the Atlantic.
The Northwest Pacific sees tropical cyclones year-round, with a minimum in February and March and a peak in early September.
In the North Indian basin, storms are most common from April to December, with peaks in May and November.
In the Southern Hemisphere, the tropical cyclone year begins on July 1 and runs all year-round encompassing the tropical cyclone seasons, which run from November 1 until the end of April, with peaks in mid-February to early March.
Of various
modes of variability in the climate system,
El Niño–Southern Oscillation
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea te ...
has the largest impact on tropical cyclone activity.
Most tropical cyclones form on the side of the subtropical ridge closer to the equator, then move poleward past the ridge axis before recurving into the main belt of the
Westerlies
The westerlies, anti-trades, or prevailing westerlies, are prevailing winds from the west toward the east in the middle latitudes between 30 and 60 degrees latitude. They originate from the high-pressure areas in the horse latitudes and trend to ...
. When the
subtropical ridge
The horse latitudes are the latitudes about 30 degrees north and south of the Equator. They are characterized by sunny skies, calm winds, and very little precipitation. They are also known as Subtropics, subtropical ridges, or highs. It is a h ...
position shifts due to El Niño, so will the preferred tropical cyclone tracks. Areas west of Japan and
Korea
Korea ( ko, 한국, or , ) is a peninsular region in East Asia. Since 1945, it has been divided at or near the 38th parallel, with North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) comprising its northern half and South Korea (Republic o ...
tend to experience much fewer September–November tropical cyclone impacts during
El Niño
El Niño (; ; ) is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (approximately between the International Date L ...
and neutral years.
During
La Niña
La Niña (; ) is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern. The name ''La Niña'' originates from Spanish for "the girl", by an ...
years, the formation of tropical cyclones, along with the subtropical ridge position, shifts westward across the western Pacific Ocean, which increases the landfall threat to China and much greater intensity in the
Philippines
The Philippines (; fil, Pilipinas, links=no), officially the Republic of the Philippines ( fil, Republika ng Pilipinas, links=no),
* bik, Republika kan Filipinas
* ceb, Republika sa Pilipinas
* cbk, República de Filipinas
* hil, Republ ...
.
The Atlantic Ocean experiences depressed activity due to increased vertical
wind shear
Wind shear (or windshear), sometimes referred to as wind gradient, is a difference in wind speed and/or direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere. Atmospheric wind shear is normally described as either vertical or horizontal ...
across the region during El Niño years. Tropical cyclones are further influenced by the
Atlantic Meridional Mode
The Atlantic Ocean is the second-largest of the world's five oceans, with an area of about . It covers approximately 20% of Earth's surface and about 29% of its water surface area. It is known to separate the "Old World" of Africa, Europe and ...
, the
Quasi-biennial oscillation
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasiperiodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top ...
and the
Madden–Julian oscillation
The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the largest element of the intraseasonal (30- to 90-day) variability in the tropical atmosphere. It was discovered in 1971 by Roland Madden and Paul Julian of the American National Center for Atmospheric R ...
.
Influence of climate change
Climate change
In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to E ...
can affect tropical cyclones in a variety of ways: an intensification of rainfall and wind speed, a decrease in overall frequency, an increase in the frequency of very intense storms and a poleward extension of where the cyclones reach maximum intensity are among the possible consequences of human-induced climate change.
Tropical cyclones use warm, moist air as their fuel. As climate change is
warming ocean temperatures, there is potentially more of this fuel available. Between 1979 and 2017, there was a global increase in the proportion of tropical cyclones of Category 3 and higher on the
Saffir–Simpson scale
The Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS) classifies hurricanes—which in the Western Hemisphere are tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of tropical depressions and tropical storms—into five categories distinguished by ...
. The trend was most clear in the North Atlantic and in the Southern Indian Ocean. In the North Pacific, tropical cyclones have been moving poleward into colder waters and there was no increase in intensity over this period. With warming, a greater percentage (+13%) of tropical cyclones are expected to reach Category 4 and 5 strength.
A 2019 study indicates that climate change has been driving the observed trend of
rapid intensification
In meteorology, rapid intensification is a situation where a tropical cyclone intensifies dramatically in a short period of time. The United States National Hurricane Center defines rapid intensification as an increase in the maximum sustained w ...
of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Rapidly intensifying cyclones are hard to forecast and therefore pose additional risk to coastal communities.
Warmer air can hold more water vapor: the theoretical maximum water vapor content is given by the
Clausius–Clapeyron relation
The Clausius–Clapeyron relation, named after Rudolf Clausius and Benoît Paul Émile Clapeyron, specifies the temperature dependence of pressure, most importantly vapor pressure, at a discontinuous phase transition between two phases of matter ...
, which yields ≈7% increase in water vapor in the atmosphere per warming.
All models that were assessed in a 2019 review paper show a future increase of rainfall rates.
Additional
sea level rise
Globally, sea levels are rising due to human-caused climate change. Between 1901 and 2018, the globally averaged sea level rose by , or 1–2 mm per year on average.IPCC, 2019Summary for Policymakers InIPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cry ...
will increase storm surge levels.
It is plausible that extreme
wind wave
In fluid dynamics, a wind wave, water wave, or wind-generated water wave, is a surface wave that occurs on the free surface of bodies of water as a result from the wind blowing over the water surface. The contact distance in the direction of t ...
s see an increase as a consequence of changes in tropical cyclones, further exacerbating storm surge dangers to coastal communities.
The compounding effects from floods, storm surge, and terrestrial flooding (rivers) are projected to increase
due to global warming.
There is currently no consensus on how climate change will affect the overall frequency of tropical cyclones.
A majority of
climate model
Numerical climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the important drivers of climate, including atmosphere, oceans, land surface and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the cl ...
s show a decreased frequency in future projections.
For instance, a 2020 paper comparing nine high-resolution climate models found robust decreases in frequency in the Southern Indian Ocean and the Southern Hemisphere more generally, while finding mixed signals for Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones. Observations have shown little change in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones worldwide, with increased frequency in the North Atlantic and central Pacific, and significant decreases in the southern Indian Ocean and western North Pacific. There has been a poleward expansion of the latitude at which the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones occurs, which may be associated with climate change. In the North Pacific, there may also have been an eastward expansion.
Between 1949 and 2016, there was a slowdown in tropical cyclone translation speeds. It is unclear still to what extent this can be attributed to climate change: climate models do not all show this feature.
Observation and forecasting
Observation
![NOAA Lockheed WP-3D Orion](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/11/NOAA_Lockheed_WP-3D_Orion_%22Hurricane_Hunter%22_%28N42RF%29_at_SENEX_Air_Quality-Climate_Research_Study_%289119691512%29.jpg)
Intense tropical cyclones pose a particular observation challenge, as they are a dangerous oceanic phenomenon, and
weather station
A weather station is a facility, either on land or sea, with instruments and equipment for measuring atmospheric conditions to provide information for weather forecasts and to study the weather and climate. The measurements taken include tempera ...
s, being relatively sparse, are rarely available on the site of the storm itself. In general, surface observations are available only if the storm is passing over an island or a coastal area, or if there is a nearby ship. Real-time measurements are usually taken in the periphery of the cyclone, where conditions are less catastrophic and its true strength cannot be evaluated. For this reason, there are teams of meteorologists that move into the path of tropical cyclones to help evaluate their strength at the point of landfall.
Tropical cyclones are tracked by
weather satellite
A weather satellite or meteorological satellite is a type of Earth observation satellite that is primarily used to monitor the weather and climate of the Earth. Satellites can be polar orbiting (covering the entire Earth asynchronously), or ge ...
s capturing
visible
Visibility, in meteorology, is a measure of the distance at which an object or light can be seen.
Visibility may also refer to:
* A measure of turbidity in water quality control
* Interferometric visibility, which quantifies interference contrast ...
and
infrared
Infrared (IR), sometimes called infrared light, is electromagnetic radiation (EMR) with wavelengths longer than those of visible light. It is therefore invisible to the human eye. IR is generally understood to encompass wavelengths from around ...
images from space, usually at half-hour to quarter-hour intervals. As a storm approaches land, it can be observed by land-based
Doppler weather radar
Weather radar, also called weather surveillance radar (WSR) and Doppler weather radar, is a type of radar used to locate precipitation, calculate its motion, and estimate its type (rain, snow, hail etc.). Modern weather radars are mostly puls ...
. Radar plays a crucial role around landfall by showing a storm's location and intensity every several minutes.
Other satellites provide information from the perturbations of
GPS
The Global Positioning System (GPS), originally Navstar GPS, is a Radionavigation-satellite service, satellite-based radionavigation system owned by the United States government and operated by the United States Space Force. It is one of t ...
signals, providing thousands of snapshots per day and capturing atmospheric temperature, pressure, and moisture content.
In situ
''In situ'' (; often not italicized in English) is a Latin phrase that translates literally to "on site" or "in position." It can mean "locally", "on site", "on the premises", or "in place" to describe where an event takes place and is used in ...
measurements, in real-time, can be taken by sending specially equipped reconnaissance flights into the cyclone. In the Atlantic basin, these flights are regularly flown by United States government
hurricane hunters.
These aircraft fly directly into the cyclone and take direct and remote-sensing measurements. The aircraft also launch
GPS dropsondes inside the cyclone. These sondes measure temperature, humidity, pressure, and especially winds between flight level and the ocean's surface. A new era in hurricane observation began when a remotely piloted
Aerosonde
Aerosonde Ltd, now part of Textron Systems Unmanned Systems, is an Australian-based developer and manufacturer of unmanned aerial vehicles, including the AAI Corporation Aerosonde series. The company has customers in Australia, Asia and North Ame ...
, a small drone aircraft, was flown through
Tropical Storm Ophelia as it passed
Virginia
Virginia, officially the Commonwealth of Virginia, is a state in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions of the United States, between the Atlantic Coast and the Appalachian Mountains. The geography and climate of the Commonwealth ar ...
's eastern shore during the
2005 hurricane season
During 2005, tropical cyclones formed within seven different tropical cyclone basins, located within various parts of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. During the year, a total of 141 systems formed with 94 of these developing further and ...
. A similar mission was also completed successfully in the western Pacific Ocean.
Forecasting
High-speed computers and sophisticated simulation software allow forecasters to produce
computer models
Computer simulation is the process of mathematical modelling, performed on a computer, which is designed to predict the behaviour of, or the outcome of, a real-world or physical system. The reliability of some mathematical models can be deter ...
that predict tropical cyclone tracks based on the future position and strength of high- and low-pressure systems. Combining forecast models with increased understanding of the forces that act on tropical cyclones, as well as with a wealth of data from Earth-orbiting
satellites
A satellite or artificial satellite is an object intentionally placed into orbit in outer space. Except for passive satellites, most satellites have an electricity generation system for equipment on board, such as solar panels or radioisotop ...
and other sensors, scientists have increased the accuracy of track forecasts over recent decades.
However, scientists are not as skillful at predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones.
The lack of improvement in intensity forecasting is attributed to the complexity of tropical systems and an incomplete understanding of factors that affect their development. New tropical cyclone position and forecast information is available at least every six hours from the various warning centers.
Geopotential height
In meteorology, geopotential heights are used when creating forecasts and analyzing pressure systems. Geopotential heights represent the estimate of the real height of a pressure system above the average sea level.
Geopotential heights for weather are divided up into several levels. The lowest geopotential height level is , which represents the lowest of the atmosphere. The moisture content, gained by using either the relative humidity or the precipitable water value, is used in creating forecasts for precipitation. The next level, , is at a height of ; 700 hPa is regarded as the highest point in the lower atmosphere. At this layer, both vertical movement and moisture levels are used to locate and create forecasts for precipitation. The middle level of the atmosphere is at or a height of . The 500 hPa level is used for measuring atmospheric vorticity, commonly known as the spin of air. The relative humidity is also analyzed at this height in order to establish where precipitation is likely to materialize. The next level occurs at or a height of . The top-most level is located at , which corresponds to a height of . Both the 200 and 300 hPa levels are mainly used to locate the jet stream.
Related cyclone types
In addition to tropical cyclones, there are two other classes of cyclones within the spectrum of cyclone types. These kinds of cyclones, known as
extratropical cyclone
Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are low-pressure areas which, along with the anticyclones of high-pressure areas, drive the weather over much of the Earth. Extratropical cyclones are capable of ...
s and
subtropical cyclone
A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of both tropical cyclone, tropical and an extratropical cyclone.
As early as the 1950s, meteorologists were uncertain whether they should be characterized as Tropical cyclo ...
s, can be stages a tropical cyclone passes through during its
formation
Formation may refer to:
Linguistics
* Back-formation, the process of creating a new lexeme by removing or affixes
* Word formation, the creation of a new word by adding affixes
Mathematics and science
* Cave formation or speleothem, a secondar ...
or dissipation.
An ''extratropical cyclone'' is a storm that derives energy from horizontal temperature differences, which are typical in higher latitudes. A tropical cyclone can become extratropical as it moves toward higher latitudes if its energy source changes from heat released by condensation to differences in temperature between air masses; although not as frequently, an extratropical cyclone can transform into a subtropical storm, and from there into a tropical cyclone.
From space, extratropical storms have a characteristic "
comma
The comma is a punctuation mark that appears in several variants in different languages. It has the same shape as an apostrophe or single closing quotation mark () in many typefaces, but it differs from them in being placed on the baseline ...
-shaped" cloud pattern.
Extratropical cyclones can also be dangerous when their low-pressure centers cause powerful winds and high seas.
A ''subtropical cyclone'' is a
weather
Weather is the state of the atmosphere, describing for example the degree to which it is hot or cold, wet or dry, calm or stormy, clear or cloudy. On Earth, most weather phenomena occur in the lowest layer of the planet's atmosphere, the ...
system that has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone and some characteristics of an extratropical cyclone. They can form in a wide band of latitudes, from the equator to 50°. Although subtropical storms rarely have hurricane-force winds, they may become tropical in nature as their cores warm.
See also
*
Tropical cyclones in
The tropics are the regions of Earth surrounding the Equator. They are defined in latitude by the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern Hemisphere at N and the Tropic of Capricorn in
the Southern Hemisphere at S. The tropics are also referred to ...
*
Atlantic hurricane season
*
Pacific hurricane season
*
Pacific typhoon season
*
North Indian Ocean cyclone season
*
South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
*
Australian region cyclone season
*
South Pacific cyclone season
References
Further reading
* Barnes, Jay. ''Fifteen Hurricanes That Changed the Carolinas: Powerful Storms, Climate Change, and What We Do Next'' (University of North Carolina Press, 2022
online review
* Vecchi, Gabriel A., et al. "Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century." ''Nature communications'' 12.1 (2021): 1-9
online
* Weinkle, Jessica, et al. "Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900–2017." ''Nature Sustainability'' 1.12 (2018): 808-813
online
External links
United States National Hurricane Centernbsp;– North Atlantic, Eastern Pacific
United States Central Pacific Hurricane Centernbsp;– Central Pacific
Japan Meteorological Agencynbsp;– Western Pacific
India Meteorological Departmentnbsp;– Indian Ocean
Météo-France – La Reunionnbsp;– South Indian Ocean from 30°E to 90°E
Indonesian Meteorological Departmentnbsp;– South Indian Ocean from 90°E to 125°E, north of 10°S
Australian Bureau of Meteorologynbsp;– South Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean from 90°E to 160°E
Papua New Guinea National Weather Servicenbsp;– South Pacific east of 160°E, north of 10°S
Fiji Meteorological Servicenbsp;– South Pacific west of 160°E, north of 25° S
MetService New Zealandnbsp;– South Pacific west of 160°E, south of 25°S
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