Financial betting refers to the

wagering Gambling (also known as betting or gaming) is the wagering of something of Value (economics), value ("the stakes") on a Event (probability theory), random event with the intent of winning something else of value, where instances of strategy (ga ...

on the price development of a

financial instrument Financial instruments are monetary contracts between parties. They can be created, traded, modified and settled. They can be cash (currency), evidence of an ownership interest in an entity or a contractual right to receive or deliver in the form ...

at some later date relative to the current price or level of the instrument, against odds offered by a bookmaker. Maximum potential pay-off of the wager is known when the bet is taken and as a corollary risk is known beforehand by being limited to the initial stake. Financial betting instruments are a type of

digital option A binary option is a financial exotic option in which the payoff is either some fixed monetary amount or nothing at all.Breeden, D. T., & Litzenberger, R. H. (1978). "Prices of state-contingent claims implicit in option prices". ''Journal of Busin ...

. The outcome of the wager at settlement is binary, that is, either a win or a loss. Settlement is executed in cash and there is no delivery of the underlying asset. At any point in time prior to the

settlement date Settlement date is a securities industry term describing the date on which a trade (bonds, equities, foreign exchange, commodities, etc.) settles. That is, the actual day on which transfer of cash or assets is completed and is usually a few days a ...

bets can often be sold, allowing for possibilities to bet on the accuracy of a market move within the fixed limits of zero win (loss of the stake) and maximum potential win. A fee might sometimes be charged for this service. The main difference between financial betting and

speculation In finance, speculation is the purchase of an asset (a commodity, good (economics), goods, or real estate) with the hope that it will become more valuable shortly. (It can also refer to short sales in which the speculator hopes for a decline i ...

on financial markets using products such as

financial spread betting Spread betting is any of various types of wagering on the outcome of an event where the pay-off is based on the accuracy of the wager, rather than a simple "win or lose" outcome, such as fixed-odds (or money-line) betting or parimutuel betting. ...

is that the bet must result in a simple binary win or loss based on an event on the underlying financial instruments. This triggers a fixed payout for a win, while with spread betting the payout or loss varies with the price level of the underlying instrument.

Basis in financial theory

Odds have to be consistent with the real-time pricing of the underlying financial instruments listed on

foreign exchange market The foreign exchange market (Forex, FX, or currency market) is a global decentralized or over-the-counter (OTC) market for the trading of currencies. This market determines foreign exchange rates for every currency. It includes all aspec ...

s or

securities exchange A stock exchange, securities exchange, or bourse is an exchange where stockbrokers and traders can buy and sell securities, such as shares of stock, bonds and other financial instruments. Stock exchanges may also provide facilities for the ...

s in order to avoid

arbitrage In economics and finance, arbitrage (, ) is the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more markets; striking a combination of matching deals to capitalise on the difference, the profit being the difference between the ...

opportunities (although this might not be possible because of limitations on shorting, i.e. laying bets). Calculation of the odds therefore draws on the Black–Scholes formula for pricing options. Using some variation of the model to solve for volatility, from observed market prices of traded options, gives

implied volatility In financial mathematics, the implied volatility (IV) of an option contract is that value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which, when input in an option pricing model (such as Black–Scholes), will return a theoretical value equ ...

. Implied volatility is forward looking, that is, it can be used to estimate the odds for future price movements using mathematical algorithms.

Types of financial betting

There are three main variations of financial betting. These vary mainly in the way odds are displayed. # Fixed odds financial betting # Floating odds financial betting # Binary betting

Fixed and floating odds betting

Within financial floating odds the odds change for a given strike price as the price of the underlying changes. The floating odds company calculates odds for different strikes and how much can be won upon settlement depends on how much is bet at those odds. Within financial fixed odds betting the odds are fixed, while the

strike price In finance, the strike price (or exercise price) of an option is a fixed price at which the owner of the option can buy (in the case of a call), or sell (in the case of a put), the underlying security or commodity. The strike price may be set b ...

where a win is achieved relative the current level changes. The fixed odds company will calculate how much has to be bet to win a certain amount upon settlement if the conditions of the prediction become true.

Binary betting

Binary betting displays odds as an index from 0 to 100 where the bet settles at 100 if the event happens and 0 if it does not. An amount is wagered per point on the index. The event can be bought or sold, making it possible to profit both from the event occurring or not occurring.

Features

A central feature of financial betting is the fixed risk nature which allows market participants to limit the risk to a known amount. When one opens a bet (long or short) they know beforehand what risk they are taking. What is important here is that you can exit your bet at any time before settlement thus you have an option of minimizing the risk even further. The same can be applied to the winning bets (you can collect the win before the settlement time).

Liquidity Liquidity is a concept in economics involving the convertibility of assets and obligations. It can include: * Market liquidity, the ease with which an asset can be sold * Accounting liquidity, the ability to meet cash obligations when due * Liqui ...

is always provided and is achieved by the bookmaker acting as a

market maker A market maker or liquidity provider is a company or an individual that quotes both a buy and a sell price in a tradable asset held in inventory, hoping to make a profit on the ''bid–ask spread'', or ''turn.'' The benefit to the firm is that it ...

, always being willing to sell bets to a buyer, and in the case it is permitted, to buy bets back from a participant wanting to sell the bet before it expires. A central feature of financial betting is

leverage Leverage or leveraged may refer to: *Leverage (mechanics), mechanical advantage achieved by using a lever * ''Leverage'' (album), a 2012 album by Lyriel *Leverage (dance), a type of dance connection *Leverage (finance), using given resources to ...

. The benefit of leverage to the participant is that it allows a greater percentage change in capital than if it were invested directly in the underlying asset. This makes financial betting less capital intensive than trading directly on securities exchanges.

References