Severe Tropical Cyclone Pat was a small but strong
tropical cyclone
A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and squalls. Depen ...
that passed directly over
Aitutaki
Aitutaki, also traditionally known as Araura and Utataki, is the second most-populated island in the Cook Islands, after Rarotonga. It is an "almost atoll", with fifteen islets in a lagoon adjacent to the main island. Total land area is , and the ...
,
Cook Islands
)
, image_map = Cook Islands on the globe (small islands magnified) (Polynesia centered).svg
, capital = Avarua
, coordinates =
, largest_city = Avarua
, official_languages =
, lan ...
, in southern Pacific Ocean on February 10, 2010. Part of a series of storms to impact the group of islands early that year,
Pat was first identified as a tropical depression on February 6 well to the northeast of the
Samoan Islands
The Samoan Islands ( sm, Motu o Sāmoa) are an archipelago covering in the central South Pacific, forming part of Polynesia and of the wider region of Oceania. Administratively, the archipelago comprises all of the Independent State of Samoa an ...
. The storm steadily organized as it moved generally southeast, becoming a tropical cyclone on February 8. Turning to the south, intensification began in earnest and the system acquired hurricane-force winds within 48 hours of
being named. The wide system displayed
annular characteristics and a wide
eye. Pat reached its peak strength early on February 10 as a severe tropical cyclone with winds of 140 km/h (85 mph) and a
barometric pressure
Atmospheric pressure, also known as barometric pressure (after the barometer), is the pressure within the atmosphere of Earth. The standard atmosphere (symbol: atm) is a unit of pressure defined as , which is equivalent to 1013.25 millibars, 7 ...
of 960
mbar
The bar is a metric unit of pressure, but not part of the International System of Units (SI). It is defined as exactly equal to 100,000 Pa (100 kPa), or slightly less than the current average atmospheric pressure on Earth at sea lev ...
(hPa; ). Hours later it struck Aitutaki, producing gusts in excess of 185 km/h (115 mph) on the island. Hostile
wind shear
Wind shear (or windshear), sometimes referred to as wind gradient, is a difference in wind speed and/or direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere. Atmospheric wind shear is normally described as either vertical or horizont ...
then prompted rapid weakening of the cyclone. The system degraded below gale-intensity on February 11, just 24 hours after it peaked, and was last noted early on February 12.
Battering Aitutaki with wind gusts in excess of 185 km/h (115 mph), Cyclone Pat devastated the island. Approximately 78 percent of homes were damaged, with 72 structures destroyed. The electrical grid was left completely offline and supply of water was largely lost. Agriculture also experienced tremendous impact, with most crops completely lost. Damage on Aitutaki amounted to US$13.7 million; however, casualties were minimal with only eight minor injuries reported. Recovery efforts began immediately after the storm, with the
Red Cross
The International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement is a humanitarian movement with approximately 97 million volunteers, members and staff worldwide. It was founded to protect human life and health, to ensure respect for all human beings, and ...
and the
Government of New Zealand
, background_color = #012169
, image = New Zealand Government wordmark.svg
, image_size=250px
, date_established =
, country = New Zealand
, leader_title = Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern
, appointed = Governor-General
, main_organ =
, ...
aiding the local government. A reconstruction plan was enacted by the Cook Islands within a month and subsequently funded by New Zealand. Owing to its destructive effects, the name ''Pat'' was later
retired
Retirement is the withdrawal from one's position or occupation or from one's active working life. A person may also semi-retire by reducing work hours or workload.
Many people choose to retire when they are elderly or incapable of doing their j ...
and replaced with ''Pili''.
Meteorological history
Between January and March 2010, the Australian
monsoon trough
The monsoon trough is a portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Western Pacific,Bin WangThe Asian Monsoon.Retrieved 2008-05-03. as depicted by a line on a weather map showing the locations of minimum sea level pressure, and as such, ...
extended unusually far east over the southern Pacific Ocean. With above-average
sea surface temperature
Sea surface temperature (SST), or ocean surface temperature, is the ocean temperature close to the surface. The exact meaning of ''surface'' varies according to the measurement method used, but it is between and below the sea surface. Air mas ...
s, stemming from a moderate-strength
El Niño
El Niño (; ; ) is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (approximately between the International Date ...
, multiple
low-pressure systems were able to develop across the region. An unusual spree of
tropical cyclogenesis
Tropical cyclogenesis is the development and strengthening of a tropical cyclone in the atmosphere. The mechanisms through which tropical cyclogenesis occurs are distinctly different from those through which temperate cyclogenesis occurs. Tr ...
in rapid succession ensued, including four hurricane-strength storms:
Oli, Pat,
Rene, and
Tomas Tomas may refer to:
People
* Tomás (given name), a Spanish, Portuguese, and Gaelic given name
* Tomas (given name), a Swedish, Dutch, and Lithuanian given name
* Tomáš, a Czech and Slovak given name
* Tomas (surname), a French and Croatian su ...
. On February 6, the
Fiji Meteorological Service
The Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) is a Department of the government of Fiji responsible for providing weather forecasts and is based on the grounds of Nadi Airport in Nadi. The current director of Fiji Meteorological Service is Misaeli Funak ...
(FMS) began monitoring a tropical depression, dubbed ''09F'', well to the northeast of the
Samoan Islands
The Samoan Islands ( sm, Motu o Sāmoa) are an archipelago covering in the central South Pacific, forming part of Polynesia and of the wider region of Oceania. Administratively, the archipelago comprises all of the Independent State of Samoa an ...
. Embedded within a well-developed
trough, the system displayed
curved
In mathematics, a curve (also called a curved line in older texts) is an object similar to a line, but that does not have to be straight.
Intuitively, a curve may be thought of as the trace left by a moving point. This is the definition that a ...
convective banding features. Environmental conditions in the area, including low
wind shear
Wind shear (or windshear), sometimes referred to as wind gradient, is a difference in wind speed and/or direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere. Atmospheric wind shear is normally described as either vertical or horizont ...
, high
ocean heat content, and upper-level
outflow, favored cyclogenesis. Additionally, an active
Madden–Julian oscillation
The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the largest element of the intraseasonal (30- to 90-day) variability in the tropical atmosphere. It was discovered in 1971 by Roland Madden and Paul Julian of the American National Center for Atmospheric ...
phase moving into the region was expected to bolster development. Steady improvement of the system's convective structure ensued and early on February 7, the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
The Joint typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is a joint United States Navy – United States Air Force command in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The JTWC is responsible for the issuing of tropical cyclone warnings in the North-West Pacific Ocean, South P ...
(JTWC) issued a
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) is a bulletin released by the U.S. Navy-operated Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii or the Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk, Virginia, warning of the possibility of a tropical cyclone formin ...
. The low trekked generally east-southeast in response to a near-equatorial
ridge anchored to the north. The storm's appearance continued to improve and
Dvorak classifications rose to T2.5, indicating gale-force winds were likely present. Accordingly, the JTWC began issuing advisories on the system at 18:00
UTC and dubbed it ''Tropical Cyclone 14P''. Forecasters noted, however, that the small size of the cyclone could lead to erroneously low Dvorak estimates. The FMS followed suit six hours later and
assigned the name ''Pat'' to the cyclone, assessing it as a Category 1 on the
Australian cyclone scale.
Convection became increasingly symmetric on February 8, and a small
eye feature appeared on microwave satellite imagery. Spanning no more than , the developing storm began a gradual turn to the south as steering currents shifted from the equatorial ridge to a
subtropical ridge. Based on increasing Dvorak numbers, the JTWC assessed Pat to have reached hurricane-intensity by 06:00 UTC on February 9.
The eye feature became more pronounced throughout the day, with convection consolidating inward and becoming more symmetric. Accordingly, the FMS accordingly upgraded Pat to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone by 18:00 UTC.
The system became
annular
Annulus (or anulus) or annular indicates a ring- or donut-shaped area or structure. It may refer to:
Human anatomy
* '' Anulus fibrosus disci intervertebralis'', spinal structure
* Annulus of Zinn, a.k.a. annular tendon or ''anulus tendineus co ...
in nature on February 10, characterized by a lack of prominent banding features and uniform convection which surrounded its wide eye. Pat reached its peak intensity at 06:00 UTC that day as it began turning to the southwest. Maximum winds were estimated at 140 km/h (85 mph) alongside a
barometric pressure
Atmospheric pressure, also known as barometric pressure (after the barometer), is the pressure within the atmosphere of Earth. The standard atmosphere (symbol: atm) is a unit of pressure defined as , which is equivalent to 1013.25 millibars, 7 ...
of 960
mbar
The bar is a metric unit of pressure, but not part of the International System of Units (SI). It is defined as exactly equal to 100,000 Pa (100 kPa), or slightly less than the current average atmospheric pressure on Earth at sea lev ...
(hPa; ).
At the same time, the JTWC assessed Pat to have been a
Category 2-equivalent on the
Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale with one-minute sustained winds of 165 km/h (105 mph).
Weakening began shortly thereafter as wind shear over the system increased.
Pat passed directly over the island of
Aitutaki
Aitutaki, also traditionally known as Araura and Utataki, is the second most-populated island in the Cook Islands, after Rarotonga. It is an "almost atoll", with fifteen islets in a lagoon adjacent to the main island. Total land area is , and the ...
between 12:00 and 18:00 UTC.
The low-level center of Pat began decoupling from convection late on February 10 once it cleared Aitutaki.
The storm rapidly weakened amid strong shear, with the center being left completely exposed early on February 11. A solitary band remained along the south side of the storm by that time, and the FMS no longer considered it a tropical cyclone after 06:00 UTC.
The lone band of convection dissipated later that day and with no residual thunderstorm activity, the skeletal low turned westward in response to westerly flow. The JTWC maintained Pat as a tropical storm until 18:00 UTC and as a tropical depression until its dissipation early on February 12.
Preparations
![Cyclone Pat near peak intensity on February 10, 2010](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0c/Cyclone_Pat_near_peak_intensity_on_February_10%2C_2010.jpg)
Starting on February 7, tropical cyclone alerts and later
gale warning
A gale warning is an alert issued by national weather forecasting agencies around the world in an event that maritime locations currently or imminently experiencing winds of gale force on the Beaufort scale. Gale warnings (and gale watches) a ...
s were issued for the
Northern Cook Islands
The Northern Cook Islands is one of the two chains of atolls which make up the Cook Islands. Lying in a horizontal band between 9° and 13°30' south of the Equator, the chain consists of the atolls of Manihiki, Nassau, Penrhyn, Pukapuka, Rakah ...
under the anticipation of gale-force winds impacting populated islands. The first of these islands were
Manihiki
250px, Map of Manihiki Atoll
Manihiki is an atoll in the northern group of the Cook Islands known informally as the "Island of Pearls". It is located in the Northern Cook Island chain, approximately north of the capital island of Rarotonga, ma ...
,
Rakahanga
Rakahanga is part of the Cook Islands, situated in the central-southern Pacific Ocean. The unspoilt atoll is from the Cook Islands' capital, Rarotonga, and lies south of the equator. Its nearest neighbour is Manihiki which is just away. Raka ...
, and
Suwarrow
200px, Map of Cook Islands with Suwarrow near the middle
Suwarrow (also called Suvorov, Suvarou, or Suvarov) is an island in the northern group of the Cook Islands in the south Pacific Ocean. It is about south of the equator and north-northwe ...
. As the storm moved southward, the advisories shifted accordingly. Strong wind warnings were raised for
Pukapuka
Pukapuka, formerly Danger Island, is a coral atoll in the northern group of the Cook Islands in the Pacific Ocean. It is one of most remote islands of the Cook Islands, situated about northwest of Rarotonga. On this small island, an ancient ...
,
Nassau, and
Penrhyn Penryn is a Cornish word meaning 'headland' that may refer to:
*Penryn, Cornwall, United Kingdom, a town of about 7,000 on the Penryn River
**Penryn railway station, a station on the Maritime Line between Truro and Falmouth Docks, and serves the t ...
on February 8; however, they were dropped later that day as Cyclone Pat moved away. Alerts on potential gales in the southern Cook Islands also began on February 8, including the islands of
Atiu
Atiu, also known as Enuamanu (meaning ''land of the birds''), is an island of the Cook Islands archipelago, lying in the central-southern Pacific Ocean. Part of the Nga-pu-Toru, it is northeast of Rarotonga. The island's population has dropped b ...
,
Aitutaki
Aitutaki, also traditionally known as Araura and Utataki, is the second most-populated island in the Cook Islands, after Rarotonga. It is an "almost atoll", with fifteen islets in a lagoon adjacent to the main island. Total land area is , and the ...
,
Manuae,
Mitiaro
Mitiaro, the fourth island in the Cook Islands group, is of volcanic origin. Standing in water deep it is across at its widest point.
Geography
Mitiaro, also known as Nukuroa, is part of the Nga-Pu-Toru island group formerly, a volcano that bec ...
, and
Takutea
Takutea is a small uninhabited island in the Cook Islands, north-west of Atiu. Administratively, the island is considered part of Atiu, the closest island. It is owned equally by all inhabitants of Atiu and not allocated to one specific village ...
. Gale warnings for Aitutaki,
Palmerston Palmerston may refer to:
People
* Christie Palmerston (c. 1851–1897), Australian explorer
* Several prominent people have borne the title of Viscount Palmerston
** Henry Temple, 1st Viscount Palmerston (c. 1673–1757), Irish nobleman an ...
, and
Rarotonga began on February 9 and extended to
Mauke
Mauke (Ma'uke also Akatokamanava) is an island of the Cook Islands archipelago, lying in the central-southern Pacific Ocean. Part of the Nga-pu-Toru, it is northeast of Rarotonga.
Geography
Mauke is a raised coral atoll, with a central volcani ...
the next day. Early on February 10, a
hurricane warning
Tropical cyclone warnings and watches are alerts issued by national weather forecasting bodies to coastal areas threatened by the imminent approach of a tropical cyclone of tropical storm or hurricane intensity. They are notices to the local popul ...
was issued for Aitutaki. With the core of Pat's destructive winds forecast to pass close to or over the island, sustained winds of 140 km/h (85 mph) and gusts of 185 km/h (115 mph) were anticipated. The aforementioned warnings were allowed to expire once Pat cleared the Cook Islands on February 11 and was no longer a threat.
Emergency centers were prepped across the northern Cook Islands on February 8. The
Cook Islands Chapter of the
Red Cross
The International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement is a humanitarian movement with approximately 97 million volunteers, members and staff worldwide. It was founded to protect human life and health, to ensure respect for all human beings, and ...
took early action with Cyclone Pat and began stockpiling relief supplies on February 9. Volunteers from the organization assisted elderly residents with preparation and evacuation on Aitutaki.
Anticipating high winds, residents tied down homes with rope and wire and boarded up windows with shutters.
Similar preparations took place on Rarotonga, though the main concern there was
storm surge. Government offices and schools there were closed on February 11. Most residents and all tourists along the coast in Aitutaki evacuated inland to designated shelters. Authorities later announced that they were under-prepared for Cyclone Pat. The lack of an official process during an emergency was cited as a core issue.
Impact
Passing directly over Aitutaki on February 10, Pat produced wind gusts in excess of 185 km/h (115 mph) making it one of the most powerful storms ever experienced by residents on the island.
It is also considered among the most damaging on the island. Aitutaki Mayor Tai Herman claimed the winds to be much stronger, with gusts up to 240 km/h (150 mph) during the worst of the storm.
These winds were above building codes at the time, which required structures to be able to withstand winds of .
Numerous trees and power lines fell amid the powerful winds, cutting power to the entirety of the island and severing communications.
According to the Government of the Cook Islands, 78 percent of the homes on the island sustained damage. Of the 277 affected homes, 59 sustained minor damage, 51 moderate, 95 major, and 72 were destroyed.
Severity of damage correlated with the age of each home, with buildings over 25 years old suffering the greatest impact. Collateral damage took place when debris from damaged or destroyed structures became airborne and struck other buildings.
Hardest hit were the villages of Nikaupara and Tautu.
Costs to homes amounted to
NZ$
The New Zealand dollar ( mi, tāra o Aotearoa; sign: $, NZ$; code: NZD) is the official currency and legal tender of New Zealand, the Cook Islands, Niue, the Ross Dependency, Tokelau, and a British territory, the Pitcairn Islands. Within New ...
15 million (US$10.6 million).
One building at the Seventh Day Adventist church primary school collapsed while another sustained severe damage. Although damage occurred at Vaitau School, it was utilized as an evacuation shelter.
The primary school and college in Araura also suffered damage. The island's electrically run water supply was substantially effected. A total of 568 homes lost access to clean water, with many waters tanks damaged or destroyed.
Aitutaki's only hospital fared well through the storm, with some roof damage and flooded rooms. Infrastructural losses totaled to NZ$2.3 million (US$1.6 million), mainly stemming from the power grid. The agricultural sector sustained extensive damage, amounting to US$1.5 million, with some crops experiencing a total loss. The severity of damage raised concerns about food security in the months after the storm.
Particularly hard-hit was the mango crop, which was to be harvested two weeks after Pat struck. Approximately 60–75 percent of the coconut trees and 75 percent of java plum, mango, and kapok trees sustained damage. Most trees had at least one branch torn off and in most cases, multiple branches. Additionally, the
blue lorikeet
The blue lorikeet (''Vini peruviana'') is a small lorikeet from French Polynesia and the Cook Islands. It is also known as the Tahiti lorikeet, violet lorikeet, Tahitian lory, blue lory, nunbird, and the indigo lory. It was formerly found on 23 ...
(''Vini peruviana''), a bird native to
French Polynesia and the Cook Islands, population suffered dramatic losses due to the storm, with the population on Aitutaki dropping by more than 50 percent.
All told, losses from Pat amounted to US$13.7 million.
However, Dr. Russell Howorth from the
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
The Pacific Community (PC), formerly the South Pacific Commission (SPC), is an international development organisation governed by 27 members, including 22 Pacific island countries and territories. The organisation's headquarters are in Nouméa, ...
(SPC) stated that damage reached US$8.2 million. In comparison, the collective damage from cyclones in the Cook Islands since 1955 was US$47 million according to the SPC. In contrast to the severity of damage, no fatalities and only eight minor injuries took place.
Fearing similar damage to Aitutaki, a pre-emptive
state of emergency was issued for Rarotonga. This was soon lifted as Pat ultimately spared Rarotonga and little damage took place there.
Gale-force winds and heavy rains impacted Rarotonga and Palmerston islands.
Large swells affected the uninhabited Penrhyn atoll, interfering with a study of marine turtles.
Aftermath
![Cyclone Pat on February 10, 2010 at 1500z](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/Cyclone_Pat_on_February_10%2C_2010_at_1500z.jpg)
Immediately following Pat's passage, the
Government of the Cook Islands
The Cabinet of the Cook Islands is the policy and decision-making body of the executive branch of the Cook Islands Government. It consists of the Prime Minister and a number of other Ministers, who are collectively responsible to Parliament.
Le ...
declared Aitutaki a disaster zone.
In accordance with the
FRANZ agreement, the
Government of New Zealand
, background_color = #012169
, image = New Zealand Government wordmark.svg
, image_size=250px
, date_established =
, country = New Zealand
, leader_title = Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern
, appointed = Governor-General
, main_organ =
, ...
made an initial donation of NZ$350,000 for recovery efforts prior to the formal request for assistance on February 13. Following said request, New Zealand prepped a
C-130 Hercules aircraft with emergency supplies and
New Zealand Defence Force
The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF; mi, Te Ope Kātua o Aotearoa, "Line of Defence of New Zealand") are the armed forces of New Zealand. The NZDF is responsible for the protection of the national security of New Zealand and her realm, prom ...
(NZDF) personnel which arrived in Aitutaki on February 15. The aircraft made four trips in all which provided several tonnes of aid to the island. The NZDF priority was repair of schools and hospitals, though they assisted the Red Cross with clearing debris, restoring power, and setting up temporary shelters for affected residents.
The lack of access to clean water prompted significant concern, and a water and sanitation expert from the Australian Red Cross flew in on February 12 to assist with restoration efforts.
Immediate provisions of 600 water bottles were sent to the island on February 16.
The Red Cross subsequently began pumping and filtering water, using a truck to distribute it to the island's villages.
Through September 24, they provided over 100,000 litres of clean water. Distribution of 2,050 collapsible containers and 200 hygiene kits lessened dependency on the Red Cross's water pump.
An extensive repair and recovery plan was enacted by the Government of the Cook Islands within a month of Cyclone Pat, which covered agricultural, infrastructural, and societal sectors. Financial restraints hindered the expected progress of this operation, with more than two-thirds of it not being funded by the final plan report on March 4. Of the NZ$15 million (US$10.6 million) in home damage, NZ$7.2 million (US$5.1 million) was covered.
New Zealand later provided a NZ$5.5 million (US$3.9 million) grant to assist in this effort. Priority was placed on repairing damaged homes, with lesser emphasis on destroyed ones. Labor costs would ultimately reach NZ$6 million (US$4.2 million) for this project.
Finalization of the funding for reconstruction was delayed and had not started by early June, with some residents still living in tents. Farmers were provided with NZ$195,000 (US$138,000) worth of seeds, seedlings, and various supplies to jump-start agricultural recovery. Since the majority of the island's electrical grid was destroyed, an earlier plan to convert the network to underground cables was accelerated due to a convenience factor.
By February 17, 80 percent of the grid was restored; however, only 10 percent homes were actually connected.
The presence of dead vegetation left behind by the storm created fire hazards across the island, prompting the government to issue a ban on burning. The Seventh Day Adventist church primary school resumed classes on February 15 despite losing a building.
All other schools suspended activities until February 22; however, the approach of Tropical Depression 11F delayed this until the following day.
On February 23, the
European Union
The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been de ...
provided US$110,000 in emergency funds to the Cook Islands.
Habitat for Humanity later sought to assist in the rebuilding process in April, with a funding goal of NZ$300,000 (US$210,000).
Depression set in among members throughout the storm-battered community once the rebuilding process began.
Fears of possible emigration stemming soon arose.
Mayor Tai Herman feared that survivors would consider selling their homes and leave the Cook Islands altogether. Even
Prime Minister
A prime minister, premier or chief of cabinet is the head of the cabinet and the leader of the ministers in the executive branch of government, often in a parliamentary or semi-presidential system. Under those systems, a prime minister i ...
Jim Marurai
Jim Marurai (9 July 1947 – November 2020) was a Cook Islands politician who served as Prime Minister of the Cook Islands. He was a member of the Democratic Party.
Personal life
Marurai was born in Ivirua, Mangaia. He attended Ivirua an ...
was reported to be left in shock by the scale of damage.
The government enacted a three-month psychological support plan accordingly to help residents cope with the disaster and maintain social integrity among victims.
Through September, 265 people took advantage of this program.
See also
*
2009–10 South Pacific cyclone season
**
Cyclone Oli
Severe Tropical Cyclone Oli (RSMC Nadi designation 07F, JTWC designation 12P) was the first severe tropical cyclone within the South Pacific basin since Cyclone Gene in 2008.
At least one person was killed by large swells produced by the storm i ...
**
Cyclone Tomas
Severe Tropical Cyclone Tomas was the most intense tropical cyclone to strike Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. Forming out of a tropical disturbance on March 9, 2010, designated 14F by the Fiji Meteorological Service, the system gradually or ...
**
Cyclone Ului
Notes
References
External links
{{DEFAULTSORT:Pat
2009–10 South Pacific cyclone season
Category 3 South Pacific cyclones
Retired South Pacific cyclones
Tropical cyclones in the Cook Islands
2010 in the Cook Islands
Tropical cyclones in 2010