Andrew W. Marshall (September 13, 1921 – March 26, 2019) was an American foreign policy strategist who served as director of the
United States Department of Defense
The United States Department of Defense (DoD, USDOD or DOD) is an executive branch department of the federal government charged with coordinating and supervising all agencies and functions of the government directly related to national secu ...
's
Office of Net Assessment
The United States Department of Defense's Office of Net Assessment (ONA) was created in 1973 by Richard Nixon to serve as the Pentagon's "internal think tank" that "looks 20 to 30 years into the military's future, often with the assistance of outsi ...
from 1973 to 2015. Appointed to the position by
President
President most commonly refers to:
*President (corporate title)
*President (education), a leader of a college or university
*President (government title)
President may also refer to:
Automobiles
* Nissan President, a 1966–2010 Japanese ful ...
Richard Nixon
Richard Milhous Nixon (January 9, 1913April 22, 1994) was the 37th president of the United States, serving from 1969 to 1974. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as a representative and senator from California and was ...
, Marshall remained in office during all successive administrations that followed until his retirement on January 2, 2015. He was succeeded in the role by
James H. Baker.
Early life and education
Raised in
Detroit
Detroit ( , ; , ) is the largest city in the U.S. state of Michigan. It is also the largest U.S. city on the United States–Canada border, and the seat of government of Wayne County. The City of Detroit had a population of 639,111 at th ...
,
Michigan
Michigan () is a state in the Great Lakes region of the upper Midwestern United States. With a population of nearly 10.12 million and an area of nearly , Michigan is the 10th-largest state by population, the 11th-largest by area, and the ...
, Marshall pursued autodidactic interests in history, literature and the natural and social sciences from a young age. He graduated from
Cass Technical High School
Cass Technical High School (simply referred to as Cass Tech) is a public high school in Midtown Detroit, Michigan, United States. (where he trained in
machining
Machining is a process in which a material (often metal) is cut to a desired final shape and size by a controlled material-removal process. The processes that have this common theme are collectively called subtractive manufacturing, which utilizes ...
and received the second-highest score on a citywide aptitude test for honors students similar in provenance to the
SAT
The SAT ( ) is a standardized test widely used for college admissions in the United States. Since its debut in 1926, its name and scoring have changed several times; originally called the Scholastic Aptitude Test, it was later called the Schol ...
) in 1939. After briefly working in a factory and attending the
University of Detroit
The University of Detroit Mercy is a private Roman Catholic university in Detroit, Michigan. It is sponsored by both the Society of Jesus (Jesuits) and the Sisters of Mercy. The university was founded in 1877 and is the largest Catholic universi ...
for a year, he dropped out to take a position at the
Murray Body Company, where he manufactured machine tools used in fabricating British airplane parts. Unable to serve in
World War II
World War II or the Second World War, often abbreviated as WWII or WW2, was a world war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. It involved the vast majority of the world's countries—including all of the great powers—forming two opposin ...
due to a
heart murmur
Heart murmurs are unique heart sounds produced when blood flows across a heart valve or blood vessel. This occurs when turbulent blood flow creates a sound loud enough to hear with a stethoscope. Turbulent blood flow is not smooth. The sound di ...
, Marshall continued to work at Murray for the remainder of the war. He eventually resumed his formal studies at
Wayne State University
Wayne State University (WSU) is a public research university in Detroit, Michigan. It is Michigan's third-largest university. Founded in 1868, Wayne State consists of 13 schools and colleges offering approximately 350 programs to nearly 25,000 ...
in 1943.
Marshall was admitted to the
University of Chicago
The University of Chicago (UChicago, Chicago, U of C, or UChi) is a private research university in Chicago, Illinois. Its main campus is located in Chicago's Hyde Park neighborhood. The University of Chicago is consistently ranked among the b ...
with graduate standing in 1945; under the chancellery of
Robert Maynard Hutchins
Robert Maynard Hutchins (January 17, 1899 – May 14, 1977) was an American educational philosopher. He was president (1929–1945) and chancellor (1945–1951) of the University of Chicago, and earlier dean of Yale Law School (1927–1929). His& ...
, students who were not enrolled in the generalist "Chicago Plan" undergraduate program pursued a course of study that led to a master's degree instead of the baccalaureate. Strongly influenced by
Friedrich Hayek
Friedrich August von Hayek ( , ; 8 May 189923 March 1992), often referred to by his initials F. A. Hayek, was an Austrian–British economist, legal theorist and philosopher who is best known for his defense of classical liberalism. Haye ...
, he earned an
M.A.
A Master of Arts ( la, Magister Artium or ''Artium Magister''; abbreviated MA, M.A., AM, or A.M.) is the holder of a master's degree awarded by universities in many countries. The degree is usually contrasted with that of Master of Science. Tho ...
in economics from the institution in 1949. His master's thesis was a
sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model or system (numerical or otherwise) can be divided and allocated to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs. A related practice is uncertainty anal ...
of
Lawrence Klein
Lawrence Robert Klein (September 14, 1920 – October 20, 2013) was an American economist. For his work in creating computer models to forecast economic trends in the field of econometrics in the Department of Economics at the University of Penn ...
's econometric model of the US economy; influential for its methodology, it has never been published except for a short abstract.
RAND Corporation
After electing to defer his studies in favor of eventually pursuing a Ph.D. in statistics (a program not yet offered by the University of Chicago), Marshall joined the
RAND Corporation
The RAND Corporation (from the phrase "research and development") is an American nonprofit global policy think tank created in 1948 by Douglas Aircraft Company to offer research and analysis to the United States Armed Forces. It is financed ...
, the original "
think tank
A think tank, or policy institute, is a research institute that performs research and advocacy concerning topics such as social policy, political strategy, economics, military, technology, and culture. Most think tanks are non-governmenta ...
," at the behest of mentor
W. Allen Wallis
Wilson Allen Wallis (November 5, 1912 – October 12, 1998) was an American economist and statistician who served as president of the University of Rochester. He is best known for the Kruskal–Wallis one-way analysis of variance, which is named ...
in 1949. While he would briefly return to academia to cover Wallis's courses during the 1953-1954 term and continued to take statistics courses at
George Washington University
, mottoeng = "God is Our Trust"
, established =
, type = Private federally chartered research university
, academic_affiliations =
, endowment = $2.8 billion (2022)
, preside ...
, Marshall soon gained the cachet of being part of "a cadre of strategic thinkers" that coalesced at the RAND Corporation in the 1950s and 1960s, a group that also included
Charles J. Hitch Charles J. Hitch (January 9, 1910 – September 11, 1995) was an American economist and Assistant Secretary of Defense from 1961 to 1965. He later served as vice chancellor (1965–1967) and president (1967–1975) of the University of California an ...
,
Herman Kahn
Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was a founder of the Hudson Institute and one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth century. He originally came to prominence as a military strategist and systems theori ...
,
James Schlesinger
James Rodney Schlesinger (February 15, 1929 – March 27, 2014) was an American economist and public servant who was best known for serving as Secretary of Defense from 1973 to 1975 under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. Prior ...
and
Daniel Ellsberg
Daniel Ellsberg (born April 7, 1931) is an American political activist, and former United States military analyst. While employed by the RAND Corporation, Ellsberg precipitated a national political controversy in 1971 when he released the ''Pent ...
. Notably, he worked with Kahn on developing and advancing
Monte Carlo method
Monte Carlo methods, or Monte Carlo experiments, are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. The underlying concept is to use randomness to solve problems that might be determi ...
s.
Office of Net Assessment
Schlesinger would later become the U.S.
Secretary of Defense
A defence minister or minister of defence is a cabinet official position in charge of a ministry of defense, which regulates the armed forces in sovereign states. The role of a defence minister varies considerably from country to country; in som ...
and personally oversaw the creation of the Office of Net Assessment where Marshall would become the first director. The original main task of the office was to provide strategic evaluations on nuclear war issues.
James Roche,
Secretary of the Air Force
A secretary, administrative professional, administrative assistant, executive assistant, administrative officer, administrative support specialist, clerk, military assistant, management assistant, office secretary, or personal assistant is a w ...
in the administration of
George W. Bush
George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is an American politician who served as the 43rd president of the United States from 2001 to 2009. A member of the Republican Party, Bush family, and son of the 41st president George H. W. Bush, he ...
, worked for Marshall during the 1970s.
Andrew Marshall was consulted for the 1992 draft of Defense Planning Guidance (DPG), created by then-Defense Department staffers
I. Lewis Libby
Irve Lewis "Scooter" Libby (born August 22, 1950) is an American lawyer and former chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney known for his high-profile indictment.
From 2001 to 2005, Libby held the offices of Assistant to the Vice President ...
,
Paul Wolfowitz
Paul Dundes Wolfowitz (born December 22, 1943) is an American political scientist and diplomat who served as the 10th President of the World Bank, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia, and former dean of Johns Hopkins SA ...
, and
Zalmay Khalilzad
Zalmay Mamozy Khalilzad ( ps, ځلمی خلیل زاد, prs, زلمی خلیلزاد; born March 22, 1951) is an Afghan-American diplomat and foreign policy expert. Khalilzad was appointed by President Donald J. Trump to serve as U.S. Specia ...
; all of whom took to influential roles in the administration of George W. Bush.
Marshall has been noted for fostering talent in younger associates, who then proceed to influential positions in and out of the federal government: "a slew of Marshall's former staffers have gone on to industry, academia and military think tanks."
Dick Cheney
Richard Bruce Cheney ( ; born January 30, 1941) is an American politician and businessman who served as the 46th vice president of the United States from 2001 to 2009 under President George W. Bush. He is currently the oldest living former U ...
,
Donald Rumsfeld
Donald Henry Rumsfeld (July 9, 1932 – June 29, 2021) was an American politician, government official and businessman who served as Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 under president Gerald Ford, and again from 2001 to 2006 under Presi ...
, and Wolfowitz, among others, have been cited as Marshall "star protégés."
In 2003, Marshall commissioned a report for the Pentagon predicting that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies.
The report, authored by
Peter Schwartz and
Doug Randall, predicted that 'catastrophic' shortages of water and energy supply would become increasingly harder to overcome, plunging the planet into war by 2020. Schwarz and Randall further claimed that major European cities would be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020.
At the time of the report's publishing, it became notable for its link to Marshall and its accusations that leadership of the Pentagon purportedly "covered up" the report for four months until it was obtained by the British weekly ''
The Observer
''The Observer'' is a British newspaper published on Sundays. It is a sister paper to ''The Guardian'' and ''The Guardian Weekly'', whose parent company Guardian Media Group Limited acquired it in 1993. First published in 1791, it is the w ...
''.
In an interview in 2012, Major General
Chen Zhou
Chen may refer to:
People
*Chen (surname) (陳 / 陈), a common Chinese surname
* Chen (singer) (born 1992), member of the South Korean-Chinese boy band EXO
* Chen Chen (born 1989), Chinese-American poet
* (), a Hebrew first name or surname:
* ...
, the main author of four Chinese defence
white papers
A white paper is a report or guide that informs readers concisely about a complex issue and presents the issuing body's philosophy on the matter. It is meant to help readers understand an issue, solve a problem, or make a decision. A white paper ...
, stated that Marshall was one of the most important figures in changing Chinese defence thinking in the 1990s and 2000s.
Andrew Marshall funded and published three best selling books by
Michael Pillsbury
Michael Paul Pillsbury (born February 8, 1945) is an author, and former public official in the United States. He has been the Director of the Center on Chinese Strategy at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C. since 2014. Before Hudson, he hel ...
: ''Chinese Views of Future Warfare'' in 1998, ''China Debates the Future Security Environment'', and in 2015 an international bestseller, ''The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America''. According to a biography, ''The Last Warrior: Andrew Marshall and the Shaping of Modern American Defense Strategy'', "There was every reason for Marshall to expect that Chinese modes of thought would be even more alien to American ways of thinking than the Soviet leadership's had been, and that some insight into the thinking of China's political and military leaders could be gleaned from surveying open source writings. Pillsbury's work on China, which Marshall had encouraged and supported since the early 1970s, illustrates both points." According to ''The New York Times'' March 26, 2019 obituary of Marshall, "His gift was the framing of the question, the discovery of the critical question," said
Michael Pillsbury
Michael Paul Pillsbury (born February 8, 1945) is an author, and former public official in the United States. He has been the Director of the Center on Chinese Strategy at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C. since 2014. Before Hudson, he hel ...
, a China expert who advised and worked with Mr. Marshall throughout his career." The ''Washington Post'' obituary about Marshall stated, "He had an uncanny ability to pick out only the most significant questions, then to drill down deeply," Pillsbury, a colleague of 45 years, said in an interview. "He developed an iconoclastic, contrarian image."
''
Foreign Policy
A State (polity), state's foreign policy or external policy (as opposed to internal or domestic policy) is its objectives and activities in relation to its interactions with other states, unions, and other political entities, whether bilaterall ...
'' named Marshall one of its 2012 Top 100 Global Thinkers, "for thinking way, way outside the Pentagon box".
Death
Marshall died on March 26, 2019 in
Arlington, Virginia
Arlington County is a county in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The county is situated in Northern Virginia on the southwestern bank of the Potomac River directly across from the District of Columbia, of which it was once a part. The county is ...
, at the age of 97. House Armed Services Committee ranking member Rep.
Mac Thornberry
William McClellan "Mac" Thornberry (born July 15, 1958) is an American politician who served as the U.S. representative for Texas's 13th congressional district from 1995 to 2021. A member of the Republican Party, Thornberry represented the mos ...
(R-TX) announced his death during a hearing, saying, "I can think of fewer people who have had a bigger impact of focusing our defense efforts, our national security, in the right direction than Mr. Marshall. He has been before our committee I don’t know how many times over the years. So I wanted to note that passing, but also to honor his memory because he made such a difference."
References
Further reading
* Andrew F. Krepinevich, Barry D. Watts. ''The Last Warrior: Andrew Marshall and the Shaping of Modern American Defense Strategy'' (New York: Basic Books, 2015). 337 pp
online review
External links
Journalism coverage of Andrew W. Marshall.*
Biography about Andrew W. Marshall from the view of net assessment capability and disability with near-peer comparison- pdf file format - by John Schutte, Andrew W. Marshall and the Epistemic Community of the Cold War, 2015
{{DEFAULTSORT:Marshall, Andrew
United States Department of Defense officials
American civil servants
1921 births
2019 deaths
Writers from Detroit
Game theorists
RAND Corporation people
Economists from Michigan
George Washington University alumni
University of Chicago alumni
University of Detroit Mercy alumni
Wayne State University alumni
Cass Technical High School alumni