2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, and will end on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean. The first system, Tropical Storm Alberto, developed on June 19, making it the latest first named storm since 2014.

Activity increased at the end of June, with two named storms developing, the first of which was Hurricane Beryl, which became an extremely rare June major hurricane, the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record and only the second recorded in July. The second storm was Tropical Storm Chris, which formed on the last day of June and quickly made landfall in Veracruz. Activity then quieted down across the basin for most of July after Beryl dissipated, with no new tropical cyclones forming due to the presence of the Saharan air layer (SAL) across much of the Atlantic. In early August, Hurricane Debby developed in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in Florida as a hurricane. Next came Hurricane Ernesto, which impacted the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Bermuda in mid-August.

So far, the season has caused at least 88 fatalities and at least $8.915 billion (2024 USD) in damages, primarily from Beryl and Debby.

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Seasonal forecasts

In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year.

According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 72–111 units. Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of . NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.

Pre-season forecasts

On December 11, 2023, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released its extended range forecast for the 2024 season, predicting an above-average season with 20  named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. They took into account ongoing warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) throughout most of the basin, specifically in the Main Development Region and in the Caribbean Sea on top of the 2023–2024 El Niño event which was predicted to weaken to a neutral phase by August 2024. TSR updated their forecast on May 30, predicting 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes with an ACE of 226 units. On April 4, 2024, Colorado State University (CSU) released its forecast, calling for an extremely active hurricane season, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, with an ACE index of 210 units, citing the extremely warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the development of a La Niña by the summer. On April 5, Météo-France (MFM) issued a prediction of 21 named storms and 11 hurricanes. They cited warm sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, and humidity. On April 8, TSR updated their prediction, predicting 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 217 units. They predicted that moderate La Niña conditions would occur in the summer and persist into fall and above average sea surface temperatures would also persist into summer. On the same day, the University of Arizona (UA) posted their forecast calling for a very active season featuring 21 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 156 units. On April 12, University of Missouri (MU) issued their prediction of 26 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. On April 16, NCSU issued their prediction of 15–20 named storms, 10–12 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes. On April 24, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their prediction of a record-breaking season, predicting an unprecedented 33 (±6) named storms. They cited expected moderate La Niña conditions and record-warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming. On May 6, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) issued their forecast of 20–23 tropical storms, 9–11 hurricanes, and 4–5 major hurricanes. On May 22, UKMO published their forecast for the 2024 season, calling for 22 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 212 units. One day later, NOAA published their hurricane season prediction, forecasting an above-average season of 17–25 named storms, 8–13 hurricanes, and 4–7 major hurricanes with an 85% chance of being an above-average season. TSR updated their predictions on May 30 with 24 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes with an ACE of 226.

Mid-season forecasts

On June 11, CSU also updated its predictions, continuing to call for an extremely active season, with 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, five major hurricanes, and an ACE of 210. On June 23, UA updated its prediction with 23 named storms, 10 hurricanes, five major hurricanes, and an ACE of 231. TSR updated its predictions on July 5 with 26 tropical storms, 13 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes with an ACE of 240. On July 9, CSU updated its predictions, anticipating an even more active season, with 25 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, six major hurricanes, and an ACE of 230. On August 8, NOAA updated its prediction of the total number of named storms slightly, while still anticipating a highly active season.

Seasonal summary

Background

Officially, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and will end on November 30. So far, five tropical cyclones have formed, and all of them became named storms. Three of the storms became a hurricane, of which one strengthened into a major hurricane. All 5 systems have made landfall this season.

This season's ACE index, as of August 20, is approximately 55.1 units. This number represents sum of the squares of the maximum sustained wind speed (knots) for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity, divided by 10,000. Therefore, tropical depressions are not included.

Early activity

Though the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, it had its slowest start since 2014. This was due to a large stationary heat dome over Central America and Mexico, as tropical cyclogenesis in June often occurs over the Gulf of Mexico and northern Caribbean Sea. The season's first named storm, Tropical Storm Alberto, formed in the western Gulf of Mexico on June 19, then proceeded to make landfall on the northeastern coast of Mexico the following day. Next came Hurricane Beryl, the earliest-forming Category 4 and Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record in a season and the strongest June and July hurricane on record in the basin. After forming on June 28 in the MDR, the storm rapidly intensified as it approached the Windward Islands, peaking as a Category 5 hurricane early on July 2. Short-lived Tropical Storm Chris developed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on June 30, quickly moving ashore in Mexico the following morning. Beryl continued on, impacting Jamaica and landfalling on the Yucatán Peninsula and Texas. After Beryl dissipated on July 11, the Atlantic basin would fall under a period of inactivity due to the Saharan air layer, which suppresses tropical activity, persisting over the open Atlantic alongside dry air typically occurring during this period of the season.

Activity resumed at the start of August, with Hurricane Debby developing in the Gulf of Mexico on August  3, before making landfall in Florida as a Category 1 hurricane two days later. It then slowed down over land afterwards and dropped heavy rain and caused widespread flooding in the Southeastern United States. A few days after Debby dissipated, Tropical Storm Ernesto formed on August 12 in the Western Main Development Region. Ernesto became a hurricane on August 14 causing damage to the Lesser Antilles. Two days later on August 16, it strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane. The next day it made landfall at Bermuda as a weakening Category 1 storm.

Systems

Tropical Storm Alberto

On June 12, the NHC noted that an area of disturbed weather could form over the western Gulf of Mexico and possibly develop into a tropical cyclone. Several days later, early on June 17, a low-pressure area formed over the Bay of Campeche. The low was spawned from a disturbance within the Central American gyre. Though its thunderstorm activity was scattered, the invest began to grow better organized later that day and was designated ''Potential Tropical Cyclone One''. The system slowly organized over the following two days as it approached the Mexican coast, developing into Tropical Storm Alberto on June 19. Alberto steadily intensified throughout the day, ultimately attaining peak sustained winds of , and a minimum central pressure of . Early the following morning, the system made landfall near Tampico, Tamaulipas. Alberto rapidly weakened over land, dissipating just nine hours later.

Heavy rainfall from Alberto resulted in four deaths, all in Nuevo León: one in Monterrey due to La Silla River flooding, one in El Carmen, and two in Allende (the latter three were indirect electrocution deaths). Alberto brought significant rainfall to the Galveston area, leading to freshwater flooding. Its winds caused a storm surge, inundating coastal communities between Galveston and Freeport. One person drowned at Galveston due to rip currents generated by the storm. Additionally, an EF1 tornado touched down near Bellville, causing some property damage along its long path, and two EF0 tornadoes occurred near Rockport. To the east, coastal communities in Louisiana, especially Grand Isle, also received some flooding. Damage reported in Nuevo León exceeded MX$1 billion (US$53.7 million).

Hurricane Beryl

On June 25, the NHC began monitoring a tropical wave producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms just south of Cabo Verde. The following day, the wave began showing signs of organization, with modest thunderstorm activity, curved bands, and some spin development. The disturbance further organized, becoming Tropical Depression Two over the central tropical Atlantic on June 28. Located south of a strong subtropical ridge, the depression moved generally westward through an unusually favorable environment for the time of year with warm sea surface temperatures (SST) and minimal wind shear, consequently beginning a period of rapid intensification. The depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl six hours after formation, and the thunderstorms quickly organized into a central dense overcast, with a symmetric cloud pattern surrounded by rainbands. Late on June 29, Beryl intensified into a hurricane. The inner core of the thunderstorms organized into an eye, which became clear and symmetrical. Observations from the Hurricane Hunters indicated that Beryl became a major hurricane on June 30. The hurricane strengthened further into a Category 4 hurricane. Beryl maintained an initial peak intensity with winds of 130 mph (215 km/h). Beryl then underwent an eyewall replacement cycle and briefly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane early on July 1, but regained Category 4 strength six hours later once the cycle was completed. At 15:10 UTC the same day, Beryl made landfall in Carriacou, Grenada, with sustained winds of . At 03:00 UTC the next day, Beryl further intensified into a Category 5 hurricane, peaking a few hours later with winds of , while moving to the west-northwest at about . Later that same day, Beryl passed south of Isla Beata, Dominican Republic, where it weakened to Category 4 strength as a result of wind shear.

Moving generally west-northwestward under the influence of the strong ridge to its north, Beryl's center passed very near the southern coast of Jamaica on the afternoon of July 3. It remained a Category 4 hurricane, despite continued westerly shear. At 06:00 UTC on July 4, while southeast of the Cayman Islands, Beryl weakened to Category 3 strength. Beryl continued to weaken, and was downgraded to a Category 2 hurricane that afternoon. Late that same day though, data from an Air Force reconnaissance team showed that Beryl had re-strengthened to a minimal Category 3 hurricane. It weakened once more to Category 2 intensity, however, a few hours later. At 11:00 UTC on July 5, the system made landfall just northeast of Tulum, Quintana Roo, with sustained winds of . Inland, Beryl quickly weakened into a Category 1 hurricane, and then a tropical storm a few hours later. The tropical storm then emerged into the Gulf of Mexico as it was steered by a mid-level ridge located over the southeastern U.S. That night and into the next day, in addition to a broader inner core, Beryl was beset by an infusion of dry air and by moderate wind shear, which kept the storm from strengthening appreciably. Even so, by the afternoon of July 6, its convective structure had improved some and had become more persistent. At 04:00 UTC on July 8, Beryl regained hurricane intensity whilst approaching the Texas coast. Shortly thereafter, Beryl made its final landfall near Matagorda, Texas with sustained winds of . The system quickly weakened inland, transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone early on July 9. By the following day, the storm's remnants were moving through the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, tracking northeastward into Ontario before dissipating on July 11.

On June 29, the prime minister of Saint Lucia ordered a national shutdown in anticipation of Beryl's impacts on the island nation. Caribbean Airlines postponed several flights between Barbados, Grenada, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago the next day. A Caribbean Community meeting in Grenada, scheduled to run from July 3 to 5, was canceled. Effects and casualties from the hurricane were widespread. Beryl caused catastrophic damage on Grenada's northern islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique and on several of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines' southern islands such as Union Island and Canouan where many structures were damaged or destroyed. In Venezuela, six people were killed and several were missing. Sustained damage was also recorded in the Yucatán as well, although it was generally limited to downed trees and power lines, and damage to roofs; there was also widespread flooding. In the United States, the state of Texas experienced severe flooding and wind damage, with reports of at least 22 dead in the Greater Houston area. Additionally, the outer bands of the hurricane produced a prolific three-day tornado outbreak, with 67 tornadoes confirmed in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Indiana, New York, and Ontario. A total of 64 fatalities have been confirmed, and preliminary damage estimates are more than US.

Tropical Storm Chris

On June 24, the NHC began monitoring a tropical wave east-southeast of the Windward Islands producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance moved generally westward across the Caribbean for several days, before traversing the Yucatán Peninsula and emerging in the Bay of Campeche early on June 30. There, an area of low pressure formed, which quickly became better organized. Tropical Depression Three formed later that day, and strengthened into Tropical Storm Chris six hours later. Shortly thereafter, the system made landfall in the municipality of Vega de Alatorre, Veracruz, at peak intensity. Chris rapidly weakened over the rough terrain of Mexico, dissipating early on July 1.

Chris generated heavy rains in the states of Chiapas, Hidalgo, Morelos, San Luis Potosí, and Veracruz, causing flooding, overflowing rivers, and mudslides. Consequently, local authorities in Veracruz closed schools in 41 municipalities and opened 9 temporary shelters, which housed 86 people. Flooding also damaged numerous homes, including almost 2,000 in Huiloapan alone. In Hidalgo, flooding forced the evacuation of around 200 families in Yahualica. More than 20,000 people were affected by flooding in Xochiatipan, which inundated homes and a clinic. An elderly man was killed in San Salvador after he was buried by a mudslide. In addition, four police officers in Tepetlán, Veracruz, were killed after being swept away by an overflowing stream while surveying storm damage.

Hurricane Debby

On July26, the NHC started tracking a tropical wave with the potential for development into a tropical cyclone. As it moved westward, the NHC noted that the tropical wave was becoming well-defined, designating it Potential Tropical Cyclone Four on August 2. That night, the system developed a closed circulation just off the southern coast of Cuba, causing the NHC to upgrade it into a tropical depression. Tropical Depression Four entered the Gulf of Mexico where it further intensified into Tropical Storm Debby later on August 3. In the Gulf of Mexico, it intensified from tropical storm to hurricane status late on August 4, before making landfall in Florida. On August 8, Debby made a second landfall in South Carolina, approximately northeast of Charleston. Steadily weakening once inland, later that day, Debby weakened into a tropical depression. Early the next day, Debby became a post-tropical cyclone.

Rainfall impacted nations across the Caribbean, especially Cuba and Puerto Rico. States of emergency were declared for the states of Florida, Georgia, and North and South Carolina ahead of the storm. Heavy rains fell as a result of the storm moving slowly, with accumulations peaking near of rain near Sarasota, Florida. Altogether, 10 fatalities have been attributed to the storm. Preliminary damage reports are estimated to be at near US$2 billion.

Hurricane Ernesto

On August 8, the NHC noted that an area of low pressure could form in the central or tropical Atlantic. Later that day, they began tracking a tropical wave southwest of Cabo Verde. Shower activity associated with the wave began increasing two days later, later showing signs of organization on August 11. As a result, later that day, the disturbance developed into a low-pressure area. As the system was expected to impact the Leeward Islands, it was designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Five soon after. The next day, the system organized enough to become a tropical storm, being named Ernesto. Ernesto would intensify as it moved through the Lesser Antilles, impacting the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Generally favorable environment conditions allowed Ernesto to intensify further, becoming a hurricane on August 14. Although it continued to be disrupted by dry air intrusion, the storm intensified further, peaking as a Category 2 hurricane a day later. Following this, Ernesto would weaken due to wind shear before making landfall in Bermuda at 08:30 UTC on August 17 as a Category 1 hurricane. After making landfall, Ernesto would then weaken further into a tropical storm due to dry air later that day. However, at 21:00 UTC the next day, Ernesto re-intensified into a Category 1 hurricane as environmental conditions began to improve around Ernesto. After a brief period of re-intensification throughout August 19, re-strengthening to sustained winds of 90 mph (145 km/h), Ernesto began to weaken once again due to colder sea surface temperatures and environmental conditions becoming unfavorable, as it brushed the coast of Newfoundland. As Ernesto continued to quickly move northeastwards during the middle of August 20, Ernesto would become post-tropical as the NHC ceased issuing further advisories on the system.

Several main roads on the island of Guadeloupe were closed due to the storm. Wind gusts on the island of Culebra reached 86 mph (138 km/h), where downed trees blocked roads and roofs were blown off. More than 45,000 customers lost power in the Virgin Islands as a result of hurricane force wind gusts. The entirety of Saint Croix and Saint Thomas lost electricity. Over 728,000 households in Puerto Rico lost power, around half of the island. An additional 235,000 households suffered water outages. In Bermuda, power outages were recorded as well. In South Carolina, two people died due to rip currents caused by Ernesto. In North Carolina, one person was found dead also due to rough sea conditions caused by Ernesto. In New York City, with swells predicted to reach , mayor Eric Adams ordered all beaches in Brooklyn and Queens to close.

Storm names

The following list of names is being used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2024. This is the same list used in the 2018 season, with the exceptions of ''Francine'' and ''Milton'', which replaced ''Florence'' and ''Michael'', respectively.

Season effects

This is a table of all of the storms that have formed in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their name, duration, peak classification and intensities, areas affected, damage, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2024 USD.

See also

* Weather of 2024
* Tropical cyclones in 2024
* 2024 Pacific hurricane season
* 2024 Pacific typhoon season
* 2024 North Indian Ocean cyclone season
* South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2023–24, 2024–25
* Australian region cyclone seasons: 2023–24, 2024–25
* South Pacific cyclone seasons: 2023–24, 2024–25

Notes

References

External links

US National Hurricane Center website
– for the latest official information

{{Tropical cyclone season, 2024

Atlantic hurricane seasons
Tropical cyclones in 2024