2023 Punjab Provincial Election

Provincial elections are scheduled to be held in Punjab within 90 days after the early dissolution of the Provincial Assembly, which is set to dissolve by or before 14 January 2023. This means that the election must be held no later than 14 April 2023.

Electoral system

The 371 seats of the Punjab Assembly consist of 297 general seats, whose members are elected by the first-past-the-post voting system through single-member constituencies. 66 seats are reserved for women and 8 seats are reserved for non-Muslims. The members on these seats are elected through proportional representation based on the total number of general seats secured by each political party.

Background

In the 2018 election, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) emerged as the largest party in the Provincial Assembly of Punjab after 25 independents joined it. However, the PTI was still 2 seats short of a majority. After the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) (PML(Q)) agreed to support the PTI, they formed a coalition government in the province. The Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML(N)) emerged as the second largest party and formed the opposition.

During a political crisis in Pakistan after the successful no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan, another motion of no confidence was filed against Chief Minister Usman Buzdar, as well as against Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and Dost Muhammad Mazari, the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the Provincial Assembly, respectively. Buzdar resigned before a vote on the motion of no confidence could be held and as a consequence, an election for a new Chief Minister was scheduled on 16 April between PML(N)'s Hamza Shahbaz, the joint candidate of the Pakistan Democratic Movement, and PML(Q)'s Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, the joint candidate of his party and PTI. On the day of the election, 25 PTI MPAs crossed the floor to support Shahbaz, violating party policy. During the very beginning of the Assembly session on 16 April, a riot began between PTI and PML-N supporters. PTI MPAs threw ewers at the Deputy Speaker, as well as slapping him. The police entered the Assembly for the first time in its history and arrested 3 MPAs. The Deputy Speaker then presided over the Assembly session in the visitors gallery and declared Shahbaz the winner by securing 197 votes.

After the floor crossing, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) de-seated 25 dissident PTI MPAs for defection in the light of Article 63-A of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan on 20 May 2022. Five of these MPAs were elected on reserved seats (3 for women and 2 for minorities) and new PTI MPAs were notified on these seats on 7 July.

By-elections were held on 17 July 2022 to elect the remaining 20 members. The PTI won in a landslide, emerging victorious on 15 of those 20 seats, leading to the collapse of Chief Minister Hamza Shahbaz's PML-N led coalition government, as their coalition became 7 seats short of a majority. Elahi took oath as the Chief Minister of Punjab on 27 July 2022, leading a PTI-PML(Q) coalition government.

On 12 January 2023, after winning a vote of confidence the night before, Elahi sent a letter to Governor Baligh Ur Rehman, advising him to dissolve the Provincial Assembly. Rehman has 48 hours to accept this advice. Otherwise, after 48 hours, the Assembly automatically stands dissolved. Elections must be conducted within 90 days of the dissolution, meaning by or before 14 April 2023.

Opinion polls

In the run up to the 2023 Pakistani general elections, various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. The results of such polls are displayed in this section. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.

Punjab Assembly Voting intention

The results in the tables below (excluding the column on undecided voters and non-voters) exclude survey participants who said they wouldn't vote or they didn't know who they would vote for and add up to 100%. In polls that include undecided voters or non-voters, percentages are adjusted upwards in order to make the total equal 100%. Margins of error are also adjusted upwards at the same rate to account for the increase.

Punjab

Notes

References

{{Punjab, Pakistan elections

2020s elections in Pakistan
Elections in Punjab, Pakistan
2023 elections in Pakistan
Punjab