2021–2022 Russo-Ukrainian Crisis

In March and April 2021, Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to begin massing thousands of personnel and equipment near its border with Ukraine and in Crimea, representing the largest mobilization since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. This precipitated an international crisis due to concerns over a potential invasion. Satellite imagery showed movements of armour, missiles, and heavy weaponry. The troops were partially withdrawn by June 2021, but the crisis was renewed in October and November 2021, when over 100,000 Russian troops were massed around Ukraine on three sides by December. Despite the Russian military build-ups, Russian officials from November 2021 to 20 February 2022 repeatedly denied that Russia had plans to invade Ukraine.

The crisis is related to the ongoing (2014–present) War in Donbas, which is in turn part of the Russo-Ukrainian War. In December 2021, Russia advanced two draft treaties that contained requests for what it referred to as "security guarantees", including a legally binding promise that Ukraine would not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as well as a reduction in NATO troops and materiel stationed in Eastern Europe, and threatened unspecified military response if those demands were not met in full. NATO has rejected these requests, and the United States warned Russia of "swift and severe" economic sanctions should it further invade Ukraine. The crisis was described by many commentators as one of the most intense in Europe since the Cold War.

On 21 February 2022, Russia officially recognized the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, as independent states, and deployed troops to Donbas, in a move interpreted as Russia's effective withdrawal from the Minsk Protocol. The breakaway republics were recognized in the boundaries of their respective Ukrainian oblasts, which extend far beyond the line of contact. On 22 February, Putin said that the Minsk agreements were no longer valid. On the same day, the Federation Council unanimously authorised the use of military force in the territories.

On the morning of 24 February, Putin announced that Russia was initiating a "special military operation" in the Donbas, and launched a full-scale invasion into Ukraine.

Background

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine and Russia continued to retain close ties. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to abandon its nuclear arsenal and signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances on the condition that Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States would issue an assurance against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine. Five years later, Russia was one of the signatories of the Charter for European Security, where it "reaffirmed the inherent right of each and every participating State to be free to choose or change its security arrangements, including treaties of alliance, as they evolve".

Despite being a recognized independent country since 1991, as a former USSR constituent republic, Ukraine had been perceived by the leadership of Russia as being part of its sphere of influence. In 2008, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke out against Ukraine's membership in NATO. In 2009, Romanian analyst Iulian Chifu and his co-authors opined that in regard to Ukraine, Russia has pursued an updated version of the Brezhnev Doctrine, which dictates that the sovereignty of Ukraine cannot be larger than that of the Warsaw Pact's member states prior to the collapse of the Soviet sphere of influence during the late-1980s and early-1990s. This view is built upon the premise that Russia's actions to placate the West in the early 1990s should have been met with reciprocity from the West, without NATO expansion along Russia's border.

Following weeks of protests as part of the Euromaidan movement (2013–2014), pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and the leaders of the Ukrainian parliamentary opposition on 21 February 2014 signed a settlement agreement that called for an early election. The following day, Yanukovych fled from Kyiv ahead of an impeachment vote that stripped him of his powers as president. Leaders of the Russian-speaking eastern regions of Ukraine declared continuing loyalty to Yanukovych, causing the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine. The unrest was followed by the annexation of Crimea by Russia in March 2014 and the War in Donbas, which started in April 2014 with the creation of the Russia-backed quasi-states of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.

On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, "which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO." On 24 March 2021, Zelenskyy signed the ''Decree No. 117/2021'' approving the "strategy of de-occupation and reintegration of the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol."

In July 2021, Putin published an essay titled ''On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians'', in which he re-affirmed his view that Russians and Ukrainians were " one people". American historian Timothy Snyder described Putin's ideas as imperialism. British journalist Edward Lucas described it as historical revisionism. Other observers have noted that the Russian leadership has a distorted view of modern Ukraine and its history.

Russia has said that a possible Ukrainian accession to NATO and the NATO enlargement in general threaten its national security. In turn, Ukraine and other European countries neighboring Russia have accused Putin of attempting to restore the Russian Empire/Soviet Union and of pursuing aggressive militaristic policies.

Initial tensions (March–April2021)

First Russian military buildup

According to ''Time'' analysis published in early February 2022, Russia's military buildup along the Russo-Ukrainian border in 2021 originated from an announcement by the Russian Defence Ministry on 21 February regarding the deployment of 3,000 paratroopers to the border for "large-scale exercises". The announcement was made following the Ukrainian government's crackdown earlier that month on Viktor Medvedchuk, a leading pro-Russian Ukrainian opposition politician and tycoon with close personal ties to Vladimir Putin.

On 3 March 2021, according to ''Suspilne'', separatists from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic reported they had been granted permission to use "preemptive fire for destruction" on Ukrainian military positions. On 16 March, the SBGS border patrol in Sumy spotted a Mil Mi-8 helicopter flying from Russia trespassing approximately into Ukrainian territory before heading back to Russian airspace. According to the Ukrainian magazine ''Novoye Vremya'', ten days later, Russian troops fired mortars at Ukrainian positions near the village of Shumy in Donbas, killing four Ukrainian servicemen. Russia refused to renew the ceasefire in Donbas on 1 April.

Beginning from 16 March, NATO began a series of military exercises known as ''Defender Europe 2021''. The military exercise, one of the largest NATO-led military exercises in Europe for decades, included near-simultaneous operations across over 30 training areas in 12 countries, involving 28,000 troops from 27 nations. Russia has criticized NATO for holding ''Defender Europe 2021,'' and has deployed troops to its western borders for military exercises in response to NATO's military activities. The deployment has led to Russia having a sizable troop buildup along the Russo-Ukrainian border by mid-April. An estimation by Ukraine placed the deployment at 40,000 Russian forces for Crimea and the eastern portion of the Russo-Ukrainian border. The German government condemned the deployment as a provocation.

On 30 March, Colonel general Ruslan Khomchak, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine revealed intelligence reports suggesting a military buildup by the Russian Armed Forces at the outskirts of Ukraine in preparations for the . 28 Russian battalion tactical groups were situated along the Russo-Ukrainian border, primarily at Crimea, Rostov, Bryansk, and Voronezh. It was estimated that 60,700 Russian troops have stationed at Crimea and Donbas, with 2,000 military advisors and instructors at eastern-Ukraine. According to Komchak, the buildup, expected to increase to 53 battalion tactical groups, posed "a threat" to the military security of Ukraine. Dmitry Peskov

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