2003–04 South-West Indian Ocean Cyclone Season
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The 2003–04 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season featured the most intense tropical cyclone in the South-West
Indian Ocean The Indian Ocean is the third-largest of the world's five oceanic divisions, covering or ~19.8% of the water on Earth's surface. It is bounded by Asia to the north, Africa to the west and Australia to the east. To the south it is bounded by th ...
, Cyclone Gafilo, as well as nine other named storms. Tropical activity began on September 28 when Moderate Tropical Storm Abaimba formed at a low latitude. Activity continued until late May, following Severe Tropical Storm Juba, which marked the third year in a row that a storm formed in May. The final disturbance, one of sixteen, dissipated on May 24. Activity was near average, and the season was one of the longest on record. The first
intense tropical cyclone Intense tropical cyclone is the second-highest classification used within the South-West Indian Ocean to classify tropical cyclones with and are amongst the strongest tropical cyclones that can form on Earth. A total of 101 tropical cyclones hav ...
was Beni, which reached that intensity on November 13, the third-earliest on record. In December, Tropical Cyclone Cela moved across Madagascar, and Severe Tropical Storm Darius dropped heavy rainfall in the
Mascarene Islands The Mascarene Islands (, ) or Mascarenes or Mascarenhas Archipelago is a group of islands in the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar consisting of the islands belonging to the Republic of Mauritius as well as the French department of Réunion. Thei ...
. In January,
Cyclone Elita Tropical Cyclone Elita was an unusual tropical cyclone that made landfall on Madagascar three times. The fifth named storm of the 2003–04 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season, Elita developed in the Mozambique Channel on January 24, 2004. It s ...
crossed Madagascar three times, which caused widespread flooding and 33 deaths. Also in that month was Intense Tropical Cyclone Frank, which developed quickly but remained away from land. On March 7, Cyclone Gafilo struck near Antalaha in northeast Madagascar and largely destroyed the town. Across the country, the storm destroyed over 20,000 homes, leaving 304,000 people homeless. Nationwide, the storm killed 363 people and left $250 million in damage (2004  USD). Later in March, two storms – Nicky and Oscar – crossed 90° E from the Australian basin and were renamed Helma and Itseng, respectively. Tropical cyclones in this basin are monitored by the
Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre A Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) is responsible for the distribution of information, advisories, and warnings regarding the specific program they have a part of, agreed by consensus at the World Meteorological Organization as p ...
in
Réunion Réunion (; french: La Réunion, ; previously ''Île Bourbon''; rcf, label= Reunionese Creole, La Rényon) is an island in the Indian Ocean that is an overseas department and region of France. It is located approximately east of the island ...
.


Season summary

ImageSize = width:800 height:200 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:250 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/09/2013 till:31/05/2014 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/09/2013 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:ZD value:rgb(0.5,0.8,1) legend:Zone_of_Disturbed_Weather/Tropical_Disturbance id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression/Subtropical_Depression id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Moderate_Tropical_Storm id:ST value:rgb(0.80,1,1) legend:Severe_Tropical_Storm id:TC value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Tropical_Cyclone id:IT value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Intense_Tropical_Cyclone id:VI value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Very_Intense_Tropical_Cyclone Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:28/09/2013 till:04/10/2013 color:TS text:"Abaimba (MTS)" from:09/11/2013 till:25/11/2013 color:IT text:"Beni (ITC)" from:04/12/2013 till:20/12/2013 color:TC text:"Cela (TC)" from:27/12/2013 till:04/01/2014 color:ST text:"Darius (STS)" from:22/01/2014 till:24/01/2014 color:ZD text:"05 (ZoDW)" from:24/01/2014 till:04/02/2014 color:TC text:" Elita (TC)" barset:break from:26/01/2014 till:06/02/2014 color:IT text:"Frank (ITC)" from:28/01/2014 till:28/01/2014 color:ZD text:"08 (TDi)" from:01/03/2014 till:15/03/2014 color:VI text:" Gafilo (VITC)" from:10/03/2014 till:16/03/2014 color:ST text:"Nicky-Helma (STS)" from:15/03/2014 till:28/03/2014 color:ZD text:"11 (TDi)" from:27/03/2014 till:29/03/2014 color:ST text:"Oscar-Itseng (STS)" barset:break from:31/03/2014 till:01/04/2014 color:ZD text:"13 (TDi)" from:26/04/2014 till:27/04/2014 color:ZD text:"14 (ZoDW)" from:05/05/2014 till:17/05/2014 color:ST text:"Juba (STS)" from:19/05/2014 till:24/05/2014 color:ZD text:"16 (ZoDW)" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/09/2013 till:30/09/2013 text:September from:01/10/2013 till:31/10/2013 text:October from:01/11/2013 till:30/11/2013 text:November from:01/12/2013 till:31/12/2013 text:December from:01/01/2014 till:31/01/2014 text:January from:01/02/2014 till:28/02/2014 text:February from:01/03/2014 till:31/03/2014 text:March from:01/04/2014 till:30/04/2014 text:April from:01/05/2014 till:31/05/2014 text:May TextData = pos:(525,23) text:"(For further details, please see" pos:(672,23) text:"
scales Scale or scales may refer to: Mathematics * Scale (descriptive set theory), an object defined on a set of points * Scale (ratio), the ratio of a linear dimension of a model to the corresponding dimension of the original * Scale factor, a number w ...
)"
Météo-France Météo-France is the French national meteorological service. Organisation The organisation was established by decree in June 1993 and is a department of the Ministry of Transportation. It is headquartered in Paris but many domestic operatio ...
's meteorological office in
Réunion Réunion (; french: La Réunion, ; previously ''Île Bourbon''; rcf, label= Reunionese Creole, La Rényon) is an island in the Indian Ocean that is an overseas department and region of France. It is located approximately east of the island ...
(MFR) is the official Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for the South-West Indian Ocean, tracking all tropical cyclones from the east coast of Africa to 90° E. The agency tracked 16 tropical disturbances during the season, of which ten intensified into tropical storms and were named from a sequential list. This is near the long-term average of nine tropical storms. Five storms intensified to tropical cyclone status, with
maximum sustained winds The maximum sustained wind associated with a tropical cyclone is a common indicator of the intensity of the storm. Within a mature tropical cyclone, it is found within the eyewall at a distance defined as the radius of maximum wind, or RMW. Unl ...
of at least ; this is also near the long-term average. There were 19 days – one less than average – in which a tropical cyclone was active. The
Joint Typhoon Warning Center The Joint typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is a joint United States Navy – United States Air Force command in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The JTWC is responsible for the issuing of tropical cyclone warnings in the North-West Pacific Ocean, South P ...
(JTWC), which is a joint United States Navy – United States Air Force task force– also issued advisories for storms in the basin. Similar to the preceding season, the 2003–04 season began in September and ended the following May, making it one of the lengthiest on record. Most storms originated near the
Chagos Archipelago The Chagos Archipelago () or Chagos Islands (formerly the Bassas de Chagas, and later the Oil Islands) is a group of seven atolls comprising more than 60 islands in the Indian Ocean about 500 kilometres (310 mi) south of the Maldives archi ...
in the central Indian Ocean. Two storms – Helma and Itseng – crossed from the Australian basin and were tracked by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). Many of the storms had unusual trajectories, with sudden changes in direction.
Cyclone Elita Tropical Cyclone Elita was an unusual tropical cyclone that made landfall on Madagascar three times. The fifth named storm of the 2003–04 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season, Elita developed in the Mozambique Channel on January 24, 2004. It s ...
crossed the coastline of
Madagascar Madagascar (; mg, Madagasikara, ), officially the Republic of Madagascar ( mg, Repoblikan'i Madagasikara, links=no, ; french: République de Madagascar), is an island country in the Indian Ocean, approximately off the coast of East Africa ...
three times, described by the MFR as an "exotic" track but akin to Cyclone Felicie in 1971. The final storm – Juba – was the third-latest named storm on record, after Ikonjo in May 1990 and Gritelle in June 1991.


Systems


Moderate Tropical Storm Abaimba

On September 28, the first tropical disturbance of the season originated as a circulation within the
near-equatorial trough The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ ), known by sailors as the doldrums or the calms because of its monotonous windless weather, is the area where the northeast and the southeast trade winds converge. It encircles Earth near the thermal e ...
, west of the Chagos Archipelago. Despite moderate wind shear and minimal
convection Convection is single or multiphase fluid flow that occurs spontaneously due to the combined effects of material property heterogeneity and body forces on a fluid, most commonly density and gravity (see buoyancy). When the cause of the convec ...
at first, the system developed an organized area of thunderstorms over the center. The swirl was influenced by the trade winds, moving westward at first before turning to the east. The MFR upgraded the system to a tropical depression on September 29, and on the same day, the JTWC initiated advisories on the storm as Tropical Cyclone 01S. The circulation became exposed from the convection before developing another plume of thunderstorms on October 1. That day, the MFR upgraded the depression to Moderate Tropical Storm Abaimba, estimating peak winds of , similar to the JTWC estimate. At the low latitude of 4.4º S, Abaimba became the first named storm in the basin north of 5º S. Wind shear increased late on October 1, leaving the center exposed again. On the next day, Abaimba weakened into a tropical depression. The trajectory shifted to the south and west as it moved in a broad loop, until stalling on October 4. That day, it was no longer classifiable as a tropical disturbance, and the circulation dissipated on October 6.


Intense Tropical Cyclone Beni

The same
westerly wind burst A westerly wind burst is a phenomenon commonly associated with El Niño events, whereby the typical east-to-west trade winds across the equatorial Pacific shift to west-to-east. A westerly wind burst is defined by Harrison and Vecchi (1997) as sus ...
that spawned a
cyclonic storm In meteorology, a cyclone () is a large air mass that rotates around a strong center of low atmospheric pressure, counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere as viewed from above (opposite to an anti ...
in the
Arabian Sea The Arabian Sea ( ar, اَلْبَحرْ ٱلْعَرَبِيُّ, Al-Bahr al-ˁArabī) is a region of the northern Indian Ocean bounded on the north by Pakistan, Iran and the Gulf of Oman, on the west by the Gulf of Aden, Guardafui Channel ...
also produced Cyclone Beni. On November 7, an area of sprawling convection developed northeast of Diego Garcia. This system consolidated and organized, aided by decreasing wind shear, warm waters, and good outflow. On November 9, the MFR classified the system as a tropical disturbance, and the JTWC designated it as Tropical Cyclone 02S. Two days later, the MFR upgraded it to Moderate Tropical Storm Beni. Moving around a ridge, the storm trekked southwestward before turning to the southeast on November 12, steered by an approaching trough. That day, Beni intensified into the first tropical cyclone of the year. Its outflow was enhanced by the trough, and a well-defined
eye Eyes are organs of the visual system. They provide living organisms with vision, the ability to receive and process visual detail, as well as enabling several photo response functions that are independent of vision. Eyes detect light and conv ...
became established within the convection. On November 13, the MFR upgraded Beni to an intense tropical cyclone, estimating peak 10 minute winds of ; at the time, it was the third earliest in the season that a storm reached that intensity. The JTWC estimated slightly higher 1 minute winds of . A small cyclone, Beni rapidly weakened due to increased wind shear. By November 14 – a day after reaching peak intensity – the circulation of Beni became exposed as the winds decreased to tropical storm force. A day later, the storm weakened into a tropical disturbance and turned to a northwest drift, steered in the trade winds. Thunderstorms redeveloped as the shear diminished, and Beni re-intensified into a tropical storm on November 18 while crossing over its earlier path. Moving westward, the storm redeveloped an eye and re-attained tropical cyclone status on November 19, reaching a secondary peak intensity of about ) south of Diego Garcia. Cooler waters weakened Beni a day later, and the storm fell to tropical disturbance status by November 21. Thunderstorms reformed intermittently as the system turned to the southwest. The circulation dissipated on November 25 to the southeast of Madagascar. Moisture from the storm brought heavy rainfall to the
Mascarene Islands The Mascarene Islands (, ) or Mascarenes or Mascarenhas Archipelago is a group of islands in the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar consisting of the islands belonging to the Republic of Mauritius as well as the French department of Réunion. Thei ...
, with of precipitation recorded on the eastern side of Réunion.


Tropical Cyclone Cela

In early December, the
near-equatorial trough The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ ), known by sailors as the doldrums or the calms because of its monotonous windless weather, is the area where the northeast and the southeast trade winds converge. It encircles Earth near the thermal e ...
was active to the north of the Mascarene Islands, which spawned a circulation near Diego Garcia. This circulation became more defined moving southwestward, and was designated Tropical Disturbance 3 by the MFR on December 4. A day later, the JTWC began issuing advisories as Tropical Cyclone 03S. Dry air hindered development at first, but was counteracted by decreasing wind shear. The weather system intensified into Moderate Tropical Storm Cela on December 7. Failing to organize much, the storm attained winds of and made landfall at that intensity near Vohemar in northern Madagascar. Wind gusts there reached . The circulation became disrupted over the mountainous terrain of the island, and emerged into the
Mozambique Channel The Mozambique Channel (french: Canal du Mozambique, mg, Lakandranon'i Mozambika, pt, Canal de Moçambique) is an arm of the Indian Ocean located between the Southeast African countries of Madagascar and Mozambique. The channel is about long ...
on December 10 as a weak tropical disturbance. Unable to observe a low-level circulation, the JTWC discontinued advisories that day. Abundant moisture fueled the convection in the Mozambique Channel, although Cela's proximity to land hindered redevelopment. On December 14, the system moved far enough from Madagascar that it re-intensified into a moderate tropical storm near Juan de Nova Island; this island recorded wind gusts of and of rainfall during the passage. As Cela moved southward, its convective structure organized further, developing an eye in the center. On December 16, the storm attained tropical cyclone status while stalling west of Madagascar, with maximum sustained winds of . For the next four days, Cela's intensity fluctuated between tropical cyclone intensity or just below, affected by
upwelling Upwelling is an oceanographic phenomenon that involves wind-driven motion of dense, cooler, and usually nutrient-rich water from deep water towards the ocean surface. It replaces the warmer and usually nutrient-depleted surface water. The nutr ...
and periodic increases in wind shear. After a southwestward trajectory for a day, Cela turned southeastward and later to the south. It passed near
Europa Island Europa Island (, ), in Malagasy Nosy Ampela is a low-lying tropical atoll in the Mozambique Channel, about a third of the way from southern Madagascar to southern Mozambique. The island had never been inhabited until 1820, when the French fam ...
, which recorded a peak gust of 152 km/h (94 mph). On December 20, Cela transitioned into an
extratropical cyclone Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are low-pressure areas which, along with the anticyclones of high-pressure areas, drive the weather over much of the Earth. Extratropical cyclones are capable of ...
, affected by cooler water temperatures and the higher wind shear. The storm accelerated southeastward and was last noted by the MFR on December 22. For much of its duration, Cela was located near or over Madagascar, and most of the country received of rainfall. On the west coast,
Morombe Morombe is an urban municipality (commune urbaine) on the south-west coast in Atsimo-Andrefana, Madagascar. It can be reached by the National road 55 or pirogue from Morondava. It is situated at 283 km from Tulear. An airport serves the town. ...
reported a 24-hour precipitation total of .


Severe Tropical Storm Darius

A broad area of convection associated with the near-equatorial trough persisted on December 24, in tandem with a circulation southwest of Diego Garcia. For several days, the thunderstorms pulsated without much development. On December 27, the MFR designated the system as Tropical Disturbance 4, and more earnest convective development ensued. Moving southwestward around a ridge to the southeast, the disturbance intensified into Moderate Tropical Storm Darius on December 30. On the next day, an eye feature developed, indicative of a stronger storm. Both the MFR and the JTWC estimated peak winds of on December 31. A trough to the west prevented further development and steered Darius more to the south, bringing it east of
St. Brandon It is highly likely that the name Saint Brandon was derived from the French sailors and corsairs that sailed to and from Britanny, after a town called Saint-Brandan. It has since been Anglicised to Saint Brandon and is also known as the Cargad ...
on January 1. On the next day, the severe tropical storm passed just 15 km (9 mi) east of
Mahébourg Mahébourg is a small town on the south-eastern coast of the island of Mauritius, having a population of 15,457 as of 2015.Digest of Demographic Statistics 2015; Available at http://statsmauritius.govmu.org/English/Pages/POPULATION--And-VITAL-STAT ...
, Mauritius. An approaching cold front accelerated Darius to the south and south-southeast toward an area of higher wind shear. On January 4, the MFR declared the storm as extratropical. On the sparsely-populated St. Brandon archipelago, wind gusts reached 121 km/h (75 mph) during the storm. The large circulation of Darius brought heavy rainfall to the Mascarene Islands, which helped end a drought in Mauritius. Rains there peaked at , and wind gusts on the island peaked at , located in the weaker quadrant of the storm.


Tropical Cyclone Elita

Tropical Disturbance 06 developed in the Mozambique Channel on January 24 off the west coast of Madagascar. Drifting southwestward at first, the system became more defined and shifted its trajectory to the north. The JTWC initiated advisories on January 26 as Tropical Cyclone 09S, and on the same day, the MFR upgraded the system to Moderate Tropical Storm Elita. A ridge to the northeast turned the storm toward the southeast, and Elita made its first landfall on Madagascar on January 28 near
Mahajanga Mahajanga (French: Majunga) is a city and an administrative district on the northwest coast of Madagascar. The city of Mahajanga (Mahajanga I) is the capital of the Boeny Region. The district (identical to the city) had a population of 220,629 i ...
. The airport there recorded 10 minute sustained winds of 126 km/h (78 mph), warranting an upgrade to tropical cyclone status. Elita was the first storm of that intensity to strike western Madagascar since Cyclone Cynthia in 1991. Over land, the weakening system moved southeastward, emerging into the western Indian Ocean on January 29. After weakening to tropical depression status, Elita re-intensified into a moderate tropical storm, turned westward, and made a second landfall near
Mananjary Mananjary is a city located in Vatovavy, Madagascar with a population of 25,222 inhabitants in 2018. It is the chief city of the Mananjary district. It contains a town of the same name, situated on the southern part of the east coast, where the M ...
on January 30. The storm reemerged into the Mozambique Channel and stalled off western Madagascar before turning back to the southeast. On February 2, the JTWC estimated peak winds of , but the MFR maintained Elita as a severe tropical storm due to lack of observations. On the same day, the storm made its third and final landfall near Morondava, crossing the country and emerging near Manakara. Elita lost its remaining convection and transitioned into a hybrid storm, before the MFR declared the storm as extratropical on February 5. The remnants meandered for about a week, finally exiting the region on February 13. Elita dropped heavy rainfall of over 200 mm (8 in, which damaged or destroyed thousands of houses in Madagascar. Over 55,000 people were left homeless, primarily in
Mahajanga Mahajanga (French: Majunga) is a city and an administrative district on the northwest coast of Madagascar. The city of Mahajanga (Mahajanga I) is the capital of the Boeny Region. The district (identical to the city) had a population of 220,629 i ...
and
Toliara Toliara (also known as ''Toliary'', ; formerly ''Tuléar'') is a city in Madagascar. It is the capital of the Atsimo-Andrefana region, located 936 km southwest of national capital Antananarivo. The current spelling of the name was adopted ...
provinces. Flooding from the storm damaged or destroyed more than 450 km2 (170 sq mi) of agricultural land. Across the island, the cyclone caused at least 33 deaths, and the impacts were compounded by Cyclone Gafilo's deadly passage about two months later. Elsewhere, the cyclone brought rainfall and damage to
Mozambique Mozambique (), officially the Republic of Mozambique ( pt, Moçambique or , ; ny, Mozambiki; sw, Msumbiji; ts, Muzambhiki), is a country located in southeastern Africa bordered by the Indian Ocean to the east, Tanzania to the north, Malawi ...
and
Malawi Malawi (; or aláwi Tumbuka: ''Malaŵi''), officially the Republic of Malawi, is a landlocked country in Southeastern Africa that was formerly known as Nyasaland. It is bordered by Zambia to the west, Tanzania to the north and northeast ...
, while its outer circulation produced rough seas and strong winds in
Seychelles Seychelles (, ; ), officially the Republic of Seychelles (french: link=no, République des Seychelles; Creole: ''La Repiblik Sesel''), is an archipelagic state consisting of 115 islands in the Indian Ocean. Its capital and largest city, V ...
,
Mauritius Mauritius ( ; french: Maurice, link=no ; mfe, label=Mauritian Creole, Moris ), officially the Republic of Mauritius, is an island nation in the Indian Ocean about off the southeast coast of the African continent, east of Madagascar. It incl ...
, and
Réunion Réunion (; french: La Réunion, ; previously ''Île Bourbon''; rcf, label= Reunionese Creole, La Rényon) is an island in the Indian Ocean that is an overseas department and region of France. It is located approximately east of the island ...
.


Intense Tropical Cyclone Frank

A strong pulse in the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) produced a circulation in the
Intertropical Convergence Zone The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ ), known by sailors as the doldrums or the calms because of its monotonous windless weather, is the area where the northeast and the southeast trade winds converge. It encircles Earth near the thermal e ...
to the north of
Rodrigues Rodrigues (french: Île Rodrigues, link=yes ; Creole: ) is a autonomous outer island of the Republic of Mauritius in the Indian Ocean, about east of Mauritius. It is part of the Mascarene Islands, which include Mauritius and Réunion. Rodr ...
on January 26, which developed into a tropical disturbance that day. This was the same weather system that spawned Cyclone Elita near Madagascar and Tropical Cyclone Linda northwest of Australia. A day earlier, convection increased in the region, fueled by decreasing wind shear and an otherwise favorable environment. The disturbance quickly intensified in these conditions, and was upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Frank on January 28. Soon after, a small eye developed within the convection. Frank attained tropical cyclone intensity on January 29, a rate of development the MFR remarked as "explosive." A passing trough enhanced the outflow of the small storm, but also weakened the eye and halted development due to wind shear. After a general path to the southwest, the storm turned to the west-northwest on January 30 into an area of lighter wind shear. Attaining winds of , Frank redeveloped an eye and was upgraded to an intense tropical cyclone by the MFR. Steered by high-pressure areas in the vicinity, the cyclone turned back to the southeast. It weakened while crossing its former path, where water temperatures had dropped due to upwelling. After reaching warmer waters, Frank re-intensified and attained a peak intensity of on February 2, according to the MFR. The JTWC estimated peak winds of . The intensity fluctuated for two days, when a definitive weakening trend began. The cyclone turned to the southwest and encountered stronger wind shear. Frank resumed its southeast path on February 5 as the center became dislocated from the convection. A day later, the MFR declared the storm as extratropical, and followed the residual low for three more days.


Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Gafilo

In early March, an expansive area of convection persisted near the Chagos archipelago, related to the monsoon trough. The eastern half of the system would eventually become Severe Tropical Storm Nicky–Helma. The western half organized into a tropical disturbance on March 1. Steered by a ridge to the south, the system tracked generally westward, intensifying into Moderate Tropical Storm Gafilo on March 3. By the next day, Gafilo intensified to tropical cyclone status, aided by decreasing wind shear and the warmest waters of the year. The storm had a large size, extending 1,700 km (1,050 mi) from the Mascarene Islands to the Seychelles, with a distinct eye in the center of the convection. The large wind field dropped heavy rainfall on Réunion to the south of the storm, reaching in the island's volcanic peaks. High waves over in height affected the island for a few days, which flooded a road and a hotel. The wind field extended far north to the Seychelles, dropping on
Mahé island Mahe, Mahé, Mähe, or MAHE may refer to: Places China * Mahe Township (, lit. "Horse Creek Village") in Li County in Gansu Estonia * Mähe, a subdistrict of Tallinn, Estonia India * Mahé, India, a municipality in Mahé distric ...
. On Tromelin Island, wind gusts reached while the storm passed nearby. Moving west-southwestward toward northern Madagascar, Gafilo had outflow channels in three directions, an unusual but very favorable set of atmospheric conditions. The cyclone
rapidly intensified In meteorology, rapid intensification is a situation where a tropical cyclone intensifies dramatically in a short period of time. The United States National Hurricane Center defines rapid intensification as an increase in the maximum sustained wi ...
beginning on March 5. At 12:00 UTC on March 6, the MFR estimated peak 10 minute winds of 230 km/h (145 mph), making Gafilo a very intense tropical cyclone. The agency also estimated a minimum pressure of , the lowest on record in the basin. Around the same time, the JTWC estimated peak 1 minute winds of 260 km/h (160 mph), equivalent to a Category 5 on the Saffir–Simpson scale. Gafilo weakened slightly due to an
eyewall replacement cycle In meteorology, eyewall replacement cycles, also called concentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than , or major hurricanes ( Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this int ...
, but made landfall with much of its intensity just south of Antalaha in northeastern Madagascar around 00:00 UTC on March 7. One of the strongest cyclones on record to strike Madagascar, Gafilo wrecked 85% of the structures in Antalaha. According to the International Disaster Database, Gafilo killed 363 people in the country and left $250 million in damage (2004 USD). The cyclone struck the country less than two months after Cyclone Elita, resulting in additional losses for farmers of cloves, vanilla, and ylang-ylang. Nationwide, Gafilo destroyed over 20,000 homes, leaving 304,000 people homeless, more than half near Antalaha. The cyclone damaged or destroyed 3,400 schools and 413 public buildings. The large circulation produced hurricane-force winds along the west coast near
Mahajanga Mahajanga (French: Majunga) is a city and an administrative district on the northwest coast of Madagascar. The city of Mahajanga (Mahajanga I) is the capital of the Boeny Region. The district (identical to the city) had a population of 220,629 i ...
, an unprecedented event for a storm striking the island's east coast. A boat capsized in
Bombetoka Bay Bombetoka Bay is a bay on the northwestern coast of Madagascar near the city of Mahajanga, where the Betsiboka River flows into the Mozambique Channel. Numerous islands and sandbars have formed in the estuary from the large amount of sediment ca ...
, killing at least seven people. The ferry ''Sansom'', sailing from Comoros to Mahajanga with 120 people aboard, capsized amid high waves, with only three survivors. The cyclone moved southwestward through the country, disrupting the inner convective core. The large dropped over of rainfall and produced winds on
Mayotte Mayotte (; french: Mayotte, ; Shimaore: ''Maore'', ; Kibushi: ''Maori'', ), officially the Department of Mayotte (french: Département de Mayotte), is an overseas department and region and single territorial collectivity of France. It is loc ...
. On March 8, Gafilo emerged into the Mozambique Channel, and soon after turned to the southeast, moving ashore southwestern Madagascar late on March 9 as a severe tropical storm. The storm meandered over southern Madagascar for three days before emerging off the island's east coast on March 13. Passing south of Réunion, Gafilo transitioned into a subtropical storm on March 14, before becoming an extratropical cyclone the next day. The storm turned back to the west, dissipating on March 18 south of Réunion.


Severe Tropical Storm Nicky–Helma

A weak low-pressure area was evident within the monsoon trough on March 2 in the eastern periphery of the basin. Thunderstorms fluctuated around a weak circulation, which crossed 90° E into the Australian basin on March 7. On the next day, the system became better organized, and the BoM designated it as a tropical low. Fueled by warm waters and moderate but decreasing wind shear, the low strengthened as it moved southwestward around a ridge. The BoM upgraded the low to Tropical Cyclone Nicky on March 9, well to the west of the Cocos Islands. On the next day, the storm crossed 90° E into the South-West Indian Ocean, whereupon it was renamed ''Helma''. A
central dense overcast The central dense overcast, or CDO, of a tropical cyclone or strong subtropical cyclone is the large central area of thunderstorms surrounding its circulation center, caused by the formation of its eyewall. It can be round, angular, oval, or irr ...
organized over Helma's center, briefly developing an eye feature on March 11. That day, the MFR estimated peak winds of , making Helma a severe tropical storm. The JTWC, which designated the system Tropical Cyclone 17S, upgraded Helma to the equivalent of a minimal hurricane with peak winds of . An approaching trough increased wind shear and caused the storm to weaken, leaving the center exposed by late on March 12. After turning to the south, Helma turned back to the southwest as a weakened depression, later turning to the southeast ahead of a cold front. The circulation dissipated on March 16 without affecting land.


Severe Tropical Storm Oscar–Itseng

An active pulse in the MJO and a Rossby wave spawned
Cyclone Fay Severe Tropical Cyclone Fay was an intense late-season tropical cyclone which struck Western Australia during the 2003–04 Australian region cyclone season. Forming from an area of low pressure on 12 March, Fay was the only Category 5 cyclone ...
and what would become Cyclone Oscar–Itseng in the Australian region. The origins of the latter storm were from a low-pressure area that developed southwest of Christmas Island on March 20. The BoM classified it as a tropical low on the next day. The system moved southward at first before beginning a westward trajectory. On March 23, the BoM upgraded the system to Tropical Cyclone Oscar south of the Cocos Islands, and the JTWC classified the storm as Tropical Cyclone 20S. An eye became established in the center of the convection, and the JTWC upgraded Oscar to the equivalent of hurricane status on March 25. On the next day, the agency estimated peak 1 minute winds of , while the BoM estimated peak 10 minute winds of . Dry air and increased wind shear weakened the cyclone, leaving the circulation exposed from the convection. Late on March 27, Oscar crossed 90° E into the South-West Indian Ocean, whereupon it was renamed Itseng. Its peak intensity in the basin was , according to the MFR. On March 28, the storm weakened into a tropical depression, and the JTWC discontinued advisories. A day later, the circulation turned to the west-northwest, steered by the ridge to the south. Late on March 29, Itseng dissipated without having affected land.


Severe Tropical Storm Juba

In late April into early May, a
westerly wind burst A westerly wind burst is a phenomenon commonly associated with El Niño events, whereby the typical east-to-west trade winds across the equatorial Pacific shift to west-to-east. A westerly wind burst is defined by Harrison and Vecchi (1997) as sus ...
produced a large area of convection extending from southern India to the
Chagos Archipelago The Chagos Archipelago () or Chagos Islands (formerly the Bassas de Chagas, and later the Oil Islands) is a group of seven atolls comprising more than 60 islands in the Indian Ocean about 500 kilometres (310 mi) south of the Maldives archi ...
. In the North Indian Ocean, the convection eventually organized into a
tropical storm A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and squalls. Depend ...
off the west coast of India. In the southern hemisphere, the convection was broad and had two weak circulations. One of the vortices dissipated on May 5, leaving the other center as the dominant system. Despite northeasterly wind shear, convection increased around this center enough for the MFR to designate it a tropical disturbance on May 5. On the same day, the JTWC designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 23S. For about a week, the disturbance meandered on a general westward trajectory without much development. During this time, the JTWC discontinued advisories after thunderstorms diminished. On May 11, the wind shear dropped, allowing convection to reorganize over the center. The storm began a southwest trajectory, and intensified into Moderate Tropical Storm Juba on May 12. Such storms in May are unusual, but Juba marked the third consecutive year that a May storm developed in the basin, after Manou in 2003 and Kesiny in 2002. Moving due southward on May 13, Juba quickly intensified in an area of minimal wind shear and beneficial outflow. That day, the MFR upgraded Juba to a severe tropical storm, estimating peak 10 minute sustained winds of . The JTWC estimated that the storm intensified to the equivalent of a minimal hurricane, with 1 minute winds of . The wind shear increased on May 14, stripping the center of the deep convection. Later that day, the JTWC discontinued advisories. The MFR downgraded Juba to a tropical disturbance on May 15. The weak circulation turned to the south, passing just west of Rodrigues Island on May 16. There, the thunderstorms dropped of rainfall, which proved beneficial due to the island facing water shortages.


Other systems

Toward the end of January, an area of convection extended from the coast of Africa. On January 22, the MFR designated the system as Zone of Disturbed Weather 05, after a circulation became present northeast of Madagascar. Unfavorable wind shear prevented development, and the MFR discontinued advisories on January 24. The same MJO pulse that spawned cyclones Elita and Frank also produced an area of convection in the eastern portion of the basin on January 27. A day later, the system organized enough for the MFR to designate it Tropical Disturbance 08. Soon after, the circulation moved southeastward, crossing 90º E into the neighboring Australian basin. There, the BoM tracked the storm, upgrading it to Tropical Cyclone Linda on January 30, and tracking it until February 1. A low pressure moved westward from the Australian basin on March 15, potentially a continuation of Tropical Cyclone Evan which moved across Northern Australia in early March. The MFR designated the low as Tropical Disturbance 11, estimating peak winds of . The agency discontinued advisories on March 21 while the disturbance was near Agaléga island. That day, convection increased over the circulation despite moderate wind shear. On March 23, the JTWC classified the system as Tropical Cyclone 21S, but the agency discontinued advisories on the next day. The MFR reissued advisories on March 25, following the weak system on a general westward trajectory until March 28 to the northeast of Madagascar. On March 31, the MFR briefly issued advisories on Tropical Disturbance 13 on a system east-southeast of Agaléga. With only pulsing thunderstorms, the system quickly weakened, and the agency ceased issuing advisories. The MFR also issued advisories for Zone of Disturbed Weather 14 on April 26 to the north-northeast of Mauritius, noting an area of thunderstorms and a poorly-defined circulation. The system failed to develop further. The final system of the year was Zone of Disturbed Weather 16, which originated east-northeast of Diego Garcia on May 19. The weak system moved to the west-southwest, and the MFR issued their last advisory on May 24.


Storm names

A tropical disturbance is named when it reaches moderate tropical storm strength. If a tropical disturbance reaches moderate tropical storm status west of 55°E, then the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre in
Madagascar Madagascar (; mg, Madagasikara, ), officially the Republic of Madagascar ( mg, Repoblikan'i Madagasikara, links=no, ; french: République de Madagascar), is an island country in the Indian Ocean, approximately off the coast of East Africa ...
assigns the appropriate name to the storm. If a tropical disturbance reaches moderate tropical storm status between 55°E and
90°E The meridian 90° east of Prime Meridian, Greenwich is a line of longitude that extends from the North Pole across the Arctic Ocean, Asia, the Indian Ocean, the Southern Ocean, and Antarctica to the South Pole. It is the border between two trop ...
, then the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre in
Mauritius Mauritius ( ; french: Maurice, link=no ; mfe, label=Mauritian Creole, Moris ), officially the Republic of Mauritius, is an island nation in the Indian Ocean about off the southeast coast of the African continent, east of Madagascar. It incl ...
assigns the appropriate name to the storm. A new annual list is used every year so no names are retired.


Seasonal effects

This table lists all of the tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones that were monitored during the 2003–2004 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. Information on their intensity, duration, name, areas affected, primarily comes from RSMC La Réunion. Death and damage reports come from either press reports or the relevant national disaster management agency while the damage totals are given in 2003 or 2004 USD.
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Mascarene Islands The Mascarene Islands (, ) or Mascarenes or Mascarenhas Archipelago is a group of islands in the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar consisting of the islands belonging to the Republic of Mauritius as well as the French department of Réunion. Thei ...
,
Réunion Réunion (; french: La Réunion, ; previously ''Île Bourbon''; rcf, label= Reunionese Creole, La Rényon) is an island in the Indian Ocean that is an overseas department and region of France. It is located approximately east of the island ...
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Madagascar Madagascar (; mg, Madagasikara, ), officially the Republic of Madagascar ( mg, Repoblikan'i Madagasikara, links=no, ; french: République de Madagascar), is an island country in the Indian Ocean, approximately off the coast of East Africa ...
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Mauritius Mauritius ( ; french: Maurice, link=no ; mfe, label=Mauritian Creole, Moris ), officially the Republic of Mauritius, is an island nation in the Indian Ocean about off the southeast coast of the African continent, east of Madagascar. It incl ...
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Madagascar Madagascar (; mg, Madagasikara, ), officially the Republic of Madagascar ( mg, Repoblikan'i Madagasikara, links=no, ; french: République de Madagascar), is an island country in the Indian Ocean, approximately off the coast of East Africa ...
,
Mozambique Mozambique (), officially the Republic of Mozambique ( pt, Moçambique or , ; ny, Mozambiki; sw, Msumbiji; ts, Muzambhiki), is a country located in southeastern Africa bordered by the Indian Ocean to the east, Tanzania to the north, Malawi ...
,
Malawi Malawi (; or aláwi Tumbuka: ''Malaŵi''), officially the Republic of Malawi, is a landlocked country in Southeastern Africa that was formerly known as Nyasaland. It is bordered by Zambia to the west, Tanzania to the north and northeast ...

Seychelles Seychelles (, ; ), officially the Republic of Seychelles (french: link=no, République des Seychelles; Creole: ''La Repiblik Sesel''), is an archipelagic state consisting of 115 islands in the Indian Ocean. Its capital and largest city, V ...
,
Mauritius Mauritius ( ; french: Maurice, link=no ; mfe, label=Mauritian Creole, Moris ), officially the Republic of Mauritius, is an island nation in the Indian Ocean about off the southeast coast of the African continent, east of Madagascar. It incl ...
,
Réunion Réunion (; french: La Réunion, ; previously ''Île Bourbon''; rcf, label= Reunionese Creole, La Rényon) is an island in the Indian Ocean that is an overseas department and region of France. It is located approximately east of the island ...
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See also

*
Tropical cyclones in 2004 During 2004, tropical cyclones formed within seven different tropical cyclone basins, located within various parts of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. During the year, a total of 132 systems formed with 82 of these developing further and ...
*
List of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone seasons Lists of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone seasons provides regional indexes to lists of articles about tropical cyclone seasons that occurred in the Southern Hemisphere. They include: *South-West Indian Ocean tropical cyclone ** South-West ...
* Atlantic hurricane seasons:
2003 File:2003 Events Collage.png, From top left, clockwise: The crew of STS-107 perished when the Space Shuttle Columbia disintegrated during reentry into Earth's atmosphere; SARS became an epidemic in China, and was a precursor to SARS-CoV-2; A des ...
,
2004 2004 was designated as an International Year of Rice by the United Nations, and the International Year to Commemorate the Struggle Against Slavery and its Abolition (by UNESCO). Events January * January 3 – Flash Airlines Flight 6 ...
* Pacific hurricane seasons:
2003 File:2003 Events Collage.png, From top left, clockwise: The crew of STS-107 perished when the Space Shuttle Columbia disintegrated during reentry into Earth's atmosphere; SARS became an epidemic in China, and was a precursor to SARS-CoV-2; A des ...
,
2004 2004 was designated as an International Year of Rice by the United Nations, and the International Year to Commemorate the Struggle Against Slavery and its Abolition (by UNESCO). Events January * January 3 – Flash Airlines Flight 6 ...
* Pacific typhoon seasons:
2003 File:2003 Events Collage.png, From top left, clockwise: The crew of STS-107 perished when the Space Shuttle Columbia disintegrated during reentry into Earth's atmosphere; SARS became an epidemic in China, and was a precursor to SARS-CoV-2; A des ...
,
2004 2004 was designated as an International Year of Rice by the United Nations, and the International Year to Commemorate the Struggle Against Slavery and its Abolition (by UNESCO). Events January * January 3 – Flash Airlines Flight 6 ...
* North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons:
2003 File:2003 Events Collage.png, From top left, clockwise: The crew of STS-107 perished when the Space Shuttle Columbia disintegrated during reentry into Earth's atmosphere; SARS became an epidemic in China, and was a precursor to SARS-CoV-2; A des ...
,
2004 2004 was designated as an International Year of Rice by the United Nations, and the International Year to Commemorate the Struggle Against Slavery and its Abolition (by UNESCO). Events January * January 3 – Flash Airlines Flight 6 ...


References


External links


Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Météo France (RSMC La Réunion)


{{DEFAULTSORT:2003-04 South-West Indian Ocean Cyclone Season South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons 2003 SWIO 2004 SWIO