Probabilistic Classification
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Probabilistic Classification
In machine learning, a probabilistic classifier is a classifier that is able to predict, given an observation of an input, a probability distribution over a set of classes, rather than only outputting the most likely class that the observation should belong to. Probabilistic classifiers provide classification that can be useful in its own right or when combining classifiers into ensembles. Types of classification Formally, an "ordinary" classifier is some rule, or function, that assigns to a sample a class label : :\hat = f(x) The samples come from some set (e.g., the set of all documents, or the set of all images), while the class labels form a finite set defined prior to training. Probabilistic classifiers generalize this notion of classifiers: instead of functions, they are conditional distributions \Pr(Y \vert X), meaning that for a given x \in X, they assign probabilities to all y \in Y (and these probabilities sum to one). "Hard" classification can then be done using ...
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Machine Learning
Machine learning (ML) is a field of inquiry devoted to understanding and building methods that 'learn', that is, methods that leverage data to improve performance on some set of tasks. It is seen as a part of artificial intelligence. Machine learning algorithms build a model based on sample data, known as training data, in order to make predictions or decisions without being explicitly programmed to do so. Machine learning algorithms are used in a wide variety of applications, such as in medicine, email filtering, speech recognition, agriculture, and computer vision, where it is difficult or unfeasible to develop conventional algorithms to perform the needed tasks.Hu, J.; Niu, H.; Carrasco, J.; Lennox, B.; Arvin, F.,Voronoi-Based Multi-Robot Autonomous Exploration in Unknown Environments via Deep Reinforcement Learning IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology, 2020. A subset of machine learning is closely related to computational statistics, which focuses on making predicti ...
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Multilayer Perceptron
A multilayer perceptron (MLP) is a fully connected class of feedforward artificial neural network (ANN). The term MLP is used ambiguously, sometimes loosely to mean ''any'' feedforward ANN, sometimes strictly to refer to networks composed of multiple layers of perceptrons (with threshold activation); see . Multilayer perceptrons are sometimes colloquially referred to as "vanilla" neural networks, especially when they have a single hidden layer. An MLP consists of at least three layers of nodes: an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer. Except for the input nodes, each node is a neuron that uses a nonlinear activation function. MLP utilizes a supervised learning technique called backpropagation for training. Its multiple layers and non-linear activation distinguish MLP from a linear perceptron. It can distinguish data that is not linearly separable.Cybenko, G. 1989. Approximation by superpositions of a sigmoidal function '' Mathematics of Control, Signals, and Systems'' ...
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Bias–variance Tradeoff
In statistics and machine learning, the bias–variance tradeoff is the property of a model that the variance of the parameter estimated across samples can be reduced by increasing the bias in the estimated parameters. The bias–variance dilemma or bias–variance problem is the conflict in trying to simultaneously minimize these two sources of error that prevent supervised learning algorithms from generalizing beyond their training set: * The ''bias'' error is an error from erroneous assumptions in the learning algorithm. High bias can cause an algorithm to miss the relevant relations between features and target outputs (underfitting). * The ''variance'' is an error from sensitivity to small fluctuations in the training set. High variance may result from an algorithm modeling the random noise in the training data (overfitting). The bias–variance decomposition is a way of analyzing a learning algorithm's expected generalization error with respect to a particular problem ...
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Bias Of An Estimator
In statistics, the bias of an estimator (or bias function) is the difference between this estimator's expected value and the true value of the parameter being estimated. An estimator or decision rule with zero bias is called ''unbiased''. In statistics, "bias" is an property of an estimator. Bias is a distinct concept from consistency: consistent estimators converge in probability to the true value of the parameter, but may be biased or unbiased; see bias versus consistency for more. All else being equal, an unbiased estimator is preferable to a biased estimator, although in practice, biased estimators (with generally small bias) are frequently used. When a biased estimator is used, bounds of the bias are calculated. A biased estimator may be used for various reasons: because an unbiased estimator does not exist without further assumptions about a population; because an estimator is difficult to compute (as in unbiased estimation of standard deviation); because a biased estimato ...
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Predictive Analytics
Predictive analytics encompasses a variety of statistical techniques from data mining, predictive modeling, and machine learning that analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about future or otherwise unknown events. In business, predictive models exploit patterns found in historical and transactional data to identify risks and opportunities. Models capture relationships among many factors to allow assessment of risk or potential associated with a particular set of conditions, guiding decision-making for candidate transactions. The defining functional effect of these technical approaches is that predictive analytics provides a predictive score (probability) for each individual (customer, employee, healthcare patient, product SKU, vehicle, component, machine, or other organizational unit) in order to determine, inform, or influence organizational processes that pertain across large numbers of individuals, such as in marketing, credit risk assessment, fraud detecti ...
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Boosting (machine Learning)
In machine learning, boosting is an ensemble meta-algorithm for primarily reducing bias, and also variance in supervised learning, and a family of machine learning algorithms that convert weak learners to strong ones. Boosting is based on the question posed by Kearns and Valiant (1988, 1989):Michael Kearns(1988)''Thoughts on Hypothesis Boosting'' Unpublished manuscript (Machine Learning class project, December 1988) "Can a set of weak learners create a single strong learner?" A weak learner is defined to be a classifier that is only slightly correlated with the true classification (it can label examples better than random guessing). In contrast, a strong learner is a classifier that is arbitrarily well-correlated with the true classification. Robert Schapire's affirmative answer in a 1990 paper to the question of Kearns and Valiant has had significant ramifications in machine learning and statistics, most notably leading to the development of boosting. When first introduced, ...
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Decision Tree Learning
Decision tree learning is a supervised learning approach used in statistics, data mining and machine learning. In this formalism, a classification or regression decision tree is used as a predictive model to draw conclusions about a set of observations. Tree models where the target variable can take a discrete set of values are called classification trees; in these tree structures, leaves represent class labels and branches represent conjunctions of features that lead to those class labels. Decision trees where the target variable can take continuous values (typically real numbers) are called regression trees. Decision trees are among the most popular machine learning algorithms given their intelligibility and simplicity. In decision analysis, a decision tree can be used to visually and explicitly represent decisions and decision making. In data mining, a decision tree describes data (but the resulting classification tree can be an input for decision making). General Dec ...
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Bayes' Theorem
In probability theory and statistics, Bayes' theorem (alternatively Bayes' law or Bayes' rule), named after Thomas Bayes, describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. For example, if the risk of developing health problems is known to increase with age, Bayes' theorem allows the risk to an individual of a known age to be assessed more accurately (by conditioning it on their age) than simply assuming that the individual is typical of the population as a whole. One of the many applications of Bayes' theorem is Bayesian inference, a particular approach to statistical inference. When applied, the probabilities involved in the theorem may have different probability interpretations. With Bayesian probability interpretation, the theorem expresses how a degree of belief, expressed as a probability, should rationally change to account for the availability of related evidence. Bayesian inference is fundamental to Bayesia ...
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Prior Probability
In Bayesian statistical inference, a prior probability distribution, often simply called the prior, of an uncertain quantity is the probability distribution that would express one's beliefs about this quantity before some evidence is taken into account. For example, the prior could be the probability distribution representing the relative proportions of voters who will vote for a particular politician in a future election. The unknown quantity may be a parameter of the model or a latent variable rather than an observable variable. Bayes' theorem calculates the renormalized pointwise product of the prior and the likelihood function, to produce the ''posterior probability distribution'', which is the conditional distribution of the uncertain quantity given the data. Similarly, the prior probability of a random event or an uncertain proposition is the unconditional probability that is assigned before any relevant evidence is taken into account. Priors can be created using a num ...
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Generative Model
In statistical classification, two main approaches are called the generative approach and the discriminative approach. These compute classifiers by different approaches, differing in the degree of statistical modelling. Terminology is inconsistent, but three major types can be distinguished, following : # A generative model is a statistical model of the joint probability distribution P(X, Y) on given observable variable ''X'' and target variable ''Y'';: "Generative classifiers learn a model of the joint probability, p(x, y), of the inputs ''x'' and the label ''y'', and make their predictions by using Bayes rules to calculate p(y\mid x), and then picking the most likely label ''y''. # A discriminative model is a model of the conditional probability P(Y\mid X = x) of the target ''Y'', given an observation ''x''; and # Classifiers computed without using a probability model are also referred to loosely as "discriminative". The distinction between these last two classes is not cons ...
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Naive Bayes
In statistics, naive Bayes classifiers are a family of simple "Probabilistic classification, probabilistic classifiers" based on applying Bayes' theorem with strong (naive) statistical independence, independence assumptions between the features (see Bayes classifier). They are among the simplest Bayesian network models, but coupled with kernel density estimation, they can achieve high accuracy levels. Naive Bayes classifiers are highly scalable, requiring a number of parameters linear in the number of variables (features/predictors) in a learning problem. Maximum-likelihood estimation, Maximum-likelihood training can be done by evaluating a closed-form expression, which takes linear time, rather than by expensive Iterative method, iterative approximation as used for many other types of classifiers. In the statistics literature, naive Bayes models are known under a variety of names, including simple Bayes and independence Bayes. All these names reference the use of Bayes' theorem i ...
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Empirical Risk Minimization
Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is a principle in statistical learning theory which defines a family of learning algorithms and is used to give theoretical bounds on their performance. The core idea is that we cannot know exactly how well an algorithm will work in practice (the true "risk") because we don't know the true distribution of data that the algorithm will work on, but we can instead measure its performance on a known set of training data (the "empirical" risk). Background Consider the following situation, which is a general setting of many supervised learning problems. We have two spaces of objects X and Y and would like to learn a function \ h: X \to Y (often called ''hypothesis'') which outputs an object y \in Y, given x \in X. To do so, we have at our disposal a ''training set'' of n examples \ (x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n) where x_i \in X is an input and y_i \in Y is the corresponding response that we wish to get from h(x_i). To put it more formally, we assume ...
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