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Notional Election Results
Notional election results are calculations made, usually following boundary changes of electoral districts brought about by population shifts, to determine what election results would have been in previous elections had the newly created boundaries then been in place. Such calculations are used by psephologists and media for the purposes of detecting changing voting patterns and swings from one party to another from one election to the next, which is easier to calculate when no boundary changes have been implemented. Use in United Kingdom elections Boundary reviews can favour a particular political party, as notional election calculations have found. In the case of the United Kingdom, the Conservative Party usually benefits slightly due to population shifts away from inner cities towards suburban areas, where the Conservative Party has a stronger vote base. Consequently, representation in inner city areas - usually areas where the Labour Party has its strongest voter base - declin ...
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Election
An election is a formal group decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy has operated since the 17th century. Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in the executive and judiciary, and for regional and local government. This process is also used in many other private and business organisations, from clubs to voluntary associations and corporations. The global use of elections as a tool for selecting representatives in modern representative democracies is in contrast with the practice in the democratic archetype, ancient Athens, where the elections were considered an oligarchic institution and most political offices were filled using sortition, also known as allotment, by which officeholders were chosen by lot. Electoral reform describes the process of introducing fair electoral systems wher ...
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United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The United Kingdom includes the island of Great Britain, the north-eastern part of the island of Ireland, and many smaller islands within the British Isles. Northern Ireland shares a land border with the Republic of Ireland; otherwise, the United Kingdom is surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean, the North Sea, the English Channel, the Celtic Sea and the Irish Sea. The total area of the United Kingdom is , with an estimated 2020 population of more than 67 million people. The United Kingdom has evolved from a series of annexations, unions and separations of constituent countries over several hundred years. The Treaty of Union between the Kingdom of England (which included Wales, annexed in 1542) and the Kingdom of Scotland in 170 ...
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Colin Rallings
Colin Rallings is a British academic, Professor of Politics in the School of Sociology, Politics & Law at the University of Plymouth. Rallings’ first degree was in Politics and Modern History from the University of Manchester. Subsequently, he was awarded a master's degree in Politics by the University of Strathclyde and, in 1979, a Ph.D. by the University of Essex for a thesis on electoral behaviour. He joined the then Plymouth Polytechnic in 1976, being appointed Professor of Politics in 1997. He has held visiting appointments at the University of Leiden, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, the University of Queensland, and the Australian National University, Canberra. He is a member of the Economic and Social Research Council's (ESRC) panel of assessors for Politics and International Relations, and of the Council's Research Resources Board. With his colleague Michael Thrasher, Rallings has written extensively on electoral systems, results and British politics. H ...
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Michael Thrasher
Michael Thrasher is a British academic, Professor of Politics in the School of Sociology, Politics & Law at the University of Plymouth. He is also Sky News' election analyst. Thrasher was born in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire in 1953. he received his BA in politics from the University of Liverpool in 1974. He remained in Liverpool to study for his doctoral thesis, "The political theory of English local government, 1834-1972". He was awarded his Ph.D. in 1981. He began lecturing at Plymouth in 1977, becoming Professor of Politics in 1997. He is co-director of the ''Local Government Chronicle'' Elections Centre. With his colleague Colin Rallings, Thrasher has written extensively on electoral systems, results and British politics. He is co-director of the ''Local Government Chronicle'' Elections Centre. Thrasher appeared on Sky News Sky News is a British free-to-air television news channel and organisation. Sky News is distributed via an English-language radio news service, an ...
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Plymouth University
The University of Plymouth is a public research university based predominantly in Plymouth, England, where the main campus is located, but the university has campuses and affiliated colleges across South West England. With students, it is the largest in the United Kingdom by total number of students (including the Open University). It has 2,915 staff. History The university was originally founded as thPlymouth School of Navigation in 1862, before becoming a university college in 1920 and a polytechnic institute in 1970, with its constituent bodies being Plymouth Polytechnic, Rolle College in Exmouth, the Exeter College of Art and Design (which were, before April 1989, run by Devon County Council) and Seale-Hayne College (which before April 1989 was an independent charity). It was renamed Polytechnic South West in 1989, a move that was unpopular with students as the name lacked identity. It was the only polytechnic to be renamed and remained as "PSW" until gaining universi ...
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Scottish Parliament
The Scottish Parliament ( gd, Pàrlamaid na h-Alba ; sco, Scots Pairlament) is the devolved, unicameral legislature of Scotland. Located in the Holyrood area of the capital city, Edinburgh, it is frequently referred to by the metonym Holyrood. The Parliament is a democratically elected body comprising 129 members known as Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs), elected for five-year terms under the additional member system: 73 MSPs represent individual geographical constituencies elected by the plurality (first-past-the-post) system, while a further 56 are returned as list members from eight additional member regions. Each region elects seven party-list MSPs. Each region elects 15 to 17 MSPs in total. The most recent general election to the Parliament was held on 6 May 2021, with the Scottish National Party winning a plurality. The original Parliament of Scotland was the national legislature of the independent Kingdom of Scotland and existed from the early 13th centur ...
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Elections
An election is a formal group decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy has operated since the 17th century. Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in the executive and judiciary, and for regional and local government. This process is also used in many other private and business organisations, from clubs to voluntary associations and corporations. The global use of elections as a tool for selecting representatives in modern representative democracies is in contrast with the practice in the democratic archetype, ancient Athens, where the elections were considered an oligarchic institution and most political offices were filled using sortition, also known as allotment, by which officeholders were chosen by lot. Electoral reform describes the process of introducing fair electoral systems where they are ...
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Psephology
Psephology (; from Greek el, ψῆφος, psephos, pebble, label=none) or political analysis is a branch of political science, the "quantitative analysis of elections and balloting". As such, psephology attempts to explain elections using the scientific method. Psephology is related to political forecasting. Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in 1948 in the United Kingdom by W. F. R. Hardie (1902–1990) after he was asked by his friend R. B. McCallum for a word to describe the study of elections; first written use in 1952.
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