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Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations
Integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) is a method for approximate Bayesian inference based on Laplace's method. It is designed for a class of models called latent Gaussian models (LGMs), for which it can be a fast and accurate alternative for Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to compute posterior marginal distributions. Due to its relative speed even with large data sets for certain problems and models, INLA has been a popular inference method in applied statistics, in particular Spatial analysis, spatial statistics, ecology, and epidemiology. It is also possible to combine INLA with a finite element method solution of a stochastic partial differential equation to study e.g. spatial point processes and Species distribution modelling, species distribution models. The INLA method is implemented in the R-INLA R (programming language), R package. Latent Gaussian models Let \boldsymbol=(y_1,\dots,y_n) denote the response variable (that is, the observations) which belongs to a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayesian Inference
Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. Bayesian inference is an important technique in statistics, and especially in mathematical statistics. Bayesian updating is particularly important in the dynamic analysis of a sequence of data. Bayesian inference has found application in a wide range of activities, including science, engineering, philosophy, medicine, sport, and law. In the philosophy of decision theory, Bayesian inference is closely related to subjective probability, often called "Bayesian probability". Introduction to Bayes' rule Formal explanation Bayesian inference derives the posterior probability as a consequence of two antecedents: a prior probability and a "likelihood function" derived from a statistical model for the observed data. Bayesian inference computes the posterior probability according to Bayes' theorem: ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Generalized Linear Model
In statistics, a generalized linear model (GLM) is a flexible generalization of ordinary linear regression. The GLM generalizes linear regression by allowing the linear model to be related to the response variable via a ''link function'' and by allowing the magnitude of the variance of each measurement to be a function of its predicted value. Generalized linear models were formulated by John Nelder and Robert Wedderburn as a way of unifying various other statistical models, including linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression. They proposed an iteratively reweighted least squares method for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the model parameters. MLE remains popular and is the default method on many statistical computing packages. Other approaches, including Bayesian regression and least squares fitting to variance stabilized responses, have been developed. Intuition Ordinary linear regression predicts the expected value of a given unknown quantity ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Newton's Method
In numerical analysis, Newton's method, also known as the Newton–Raphson method, named after Isaac Newton and Joseph Raphson, is a root-finding algorithm which produces successively better approximations to the roots (or zeroes) of a real-valued function. The most basic version starts with a single-variable function defined for a real variable , the function's derivative , and an initial guess for a root of . If the function satisfies sufficient assumptions and the initial guess is close, then :x_ = x_0 - \frac is a better approximation of the root than . Geometrically, is the intersection of the -axis and the tangent of the graph of at : that is, the improved guess is the unique root of the linear approximation at the initial point. The process is repeated as :x_ = x_n - \frac until a sufficiently precise value is reached. This algorithm is first in the class of Householder's methods, succeeded by Halley's method. The method can also be extended to complex functions an ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mode (statistics)
The mode is the value that appears most often in a set of data values. If is a discrete random variable, the mode is the value (i.e, ) at which the probability mass function takes its maximum value. In other words, it is the value that is most likely to be sampled. Like the statistical mean and median, the mode is a way of expressing, in a (usually) single number, important information about a random variable or a population. The numerical value of the mode is the same as that of the mean and median in a normal distribution, and it may be very different in highly skewed distributions. The mode is not necessarily unique to a given discrete distribution, since the probability mass function may take the same maximum value at several points , , etc. The most extreme case occurs in uniform distributions, where all values occur equally frequently. When the probability density function of a continuous distribution has multiple local maxima it is common to refer to all of the local ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Laplace's Method
In mathematics, Laplace's method, named after Pierre-Simon Laplace, is a technique used to approximate integrals of the form :\int_a^b e^ \, dx, where f(x) is a twice-differentiable function, ''M'' is a large number, and the endpoints ''a'' and ''b'' could possibly be infinite. This technique was originally presented in . In Bayesian statistics, Laplace's approximation can refer to either approximating the posterior normalizing constant with Laplace's method or approximating the posterior distribution with a Gaussian centered at the maximum a posteriori estimate. Laplace approximations play a central role in the integrated nested Laplace approximations method for fast approximate Bayesian inference. The idea of Laplace's method Suppose the function f(x) has a unique global maximum at ''x''0. Let M>0 be a constant and consider the following two functions: :\begin g(x) &= Mf(x) \\ h(x) &= e^ \end Note that ''x''0 will be the global maximum of g and h as well. Now observe: : ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayes' Theorem
In probability theory and statistics, Bayes' theorem (alternatively Bayes' law or Bayes' rule), named after Thomas Bayes, describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. For example, if the risk of developing health problems is known to increase with age, Bayes' theorem allows the risk to an individual of a known age to be assessed more accurately (by conditioning it on their age) than simply assuming that the individual is typical of the population as a whole. One of the many applications of Bayes' theorem is Bayesian inference, a particular approach to statistical inference. When applied, the probabilities involved in the theorem may have different probability interpretations. With Bayesian probability interpretation, the theorem expresses how a degree of belief, expressed as a probability, should rationally change to account for the availability of related evidence. Bayesian inference is fundamental to Bayesia ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Posterior Probability
The posterior probability is a type of conditional probability that results from updating the prior probability with information summarized by the likelihood via an application of Bayes' rule. From an epistemological perspective, the posterior probability contains everything there is to know about an uncertain proposition (such as a scientific hypothesis, or parameter values), given prior knowledge and a mathematical model describing the observations available at a particular time. After the arrival of new information, the current posterior probability may serve as the prior in another round of Bayesian updating. In the context of Bayesian statistics, the posterior probability distribution usually describes the epistemic uncertainty about statistical parameters conditional on a collection of observed data. From a given posterior distribution, various point and interval estimates can be derived, such as the maximum a posteriori (MAP) or the highest posterior density interval (HPD ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Precision Matrix
In statistics, the precision matrix or concentration matrix is the matrix inverse of the covariance matrix or dispersion matrix, P = \Sigma^. For univariate distributions, the precision matrix degenerates into a scalar precision, defined as the reciprocal of the variance, p = \frac. Other summary statistics of statistical dispersion also called ''precision'' (or ''imprecision'') include the reciprocal of the standard deviation, p = \frac; the standard deviation itself and the relative standard deviation; as well as the standard error and the confidence interval (or its half-width, the margin of error). Usage One particular use of the precision matrix is in the context of Bayesian analysis of the multivariate normal distribution: for example, Bernardo & Smith prefer to parameterise the multivariate normal distribution in terms of the precision matrix, rather than the covariance matrix, because of certain simplifications that then arise. For instance, if both the prior and the lik ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Hyperparameter
In Bayesian statistics, a hyperparameter is a parameter of a prior distribution; the term is used to distinguish them from parameters of the model for the underlying system under analysis. For example, if one is using a beta distribution to model the distribution of the parameter ''p'' of a Bernoulli distribution, then: * ''p'' is a parameter of the underlying system (Bernoulli distribution), and * ''α'' and ''β'' are parameters of the prior distribution (beta distribution), hence ''hyper''parameters. One may take a single value for a given hyperparameter, or one can iterate and take a probability distribution on the hyperparameter itself, called a hyperprior. Purpose One often uses a prior which comes from a parametric family of probability distributions – this is done partly for explicitness (so one can write down a distribution, and choose the form by varying the hyperparameter, rather than trying to produce an arbitrary function), and partly so that one can ''vary'' ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Exponential Family
In probability and statistics, an exponential family is a parametric set of probability distributions of a certain form, specified below. This special form is chosen for mathematical convenience, including the enabling of the user to calculate expectations, covariances using differentiation based on some useful algebraic properties, as well as for generality, as exponential families are in a sense very natural sets of distributions to consider. The term exponential class is sometimes used in place of "exponential family", or the older term Koopman–Darmois family. The terms "distribution" and "family" are often used loosely: specifically, ''an'' exponential family is a ''set'' of distributions, where the specific distribution varies with the parameter; however, a parametric ''family'' of distributions is often referred to as "''a'' distribution" (like "the normal distribution", meaning "the family of normal distributions"), and the set of all exponential families is sometimes l ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Laplace's Method
In mathematics, Laplace's method, named after Pierre-Simon Laplace, is a technique used to approximate integrals of the form :\int_a^b e^ \, dx, where f(x) is a twice-differentiable function, ''M'' is a large number, and the endpoints ''a'' and ''b'' could possibly be infinite. This technique was originally presented in . In Bayesian statistics, Laplace's approximation can refer to either approximating the posterior normalizing constant with Laplace's method or approximating the posterior distribution with a Gaussian centered at the maximum a posteriori estimate. Laplace approximations play a central role in the integrated nested Laplace approximations method for fast approximate Bayesian inference. The idea of Laplace's method Suppose the function f(x) has a unique global maximum at ''x''0. Let M>0 be a constant and consider the following two functions: :\begin g(x) &= Mf(x) \\ h(x) &= e^ \end Note that ''x''0 will be the global maximum of g and h as well. Now observe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
R (programming Language)
R is a programming language for statistical computing and graphics supported by the R Core Team and the R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Created by statisticians Ross Ihaka and Robert Gentleman, R is used among data miners, bioinformaticians and statisticians for data analysis and developing statistical software. Users have created packages to augment the functions of the R language. According to user surveys and studies of scholarly literature databases, R is one of the most commonly used programming languages used in data mining. R ranks 12th in the TIOBE index, a measure of programming language popularity, in which the language peaked in 8th place in August 2020. The official R software environment is an open-source free software environment within the GNU package, available under the GNU General Public License. It is written primarily in C, Fortran, and R itself (partially self-hosting). Precompiled executables are provided for various operating systems. R ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
