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Forecasts
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared with what actually happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and assessment of its accuracy. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered a good prac ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Economic Forecasting
Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms. Economic forecasting is a measure to find out the future prosperity of a pattern of investment and is the key activity in economic analysis. Many institutions engage in economic forecasting: national governments, banks and central banks, consultants and private sector entities such as think-tanks, and companies or international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the OECD. A broad range of forecasts are collected and compiled b"Consensus Economics" Some forecasts are produced annually, but many are updated more frequently. The economist typically considers risks (i.e., events or conditions that can cause the result to vary from their initial estimat ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
PECOTA
PECOTA, an acronym for ''Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm'', is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. The word is a backronym based on the name of journeyman major league player Bill Pecota, who, with a lifetime batting average of .249, is perhaps representative of the typical PECOTA entry. PECOTA was developed by Nate Silver in 2002–2003 and introduced to the public in the book ''Baseball Prospectus 2003''. Baseball Prospectus (BP) has owned PECOTA since 2003; Silver managed PECOTA from 2003 to 2009. Beginning in Spring 2009, BP assumed responsibility for producing the annual forecasts, making 2010 the first baseball season for which Silver played no role in producing PECOTA projections.Nate Silver and Kevin Goldstein, "State of the Prospectus: Spring 2009,BaseballProspectus.com, March 24, 2009. One of several widely publicized statistical systems of forecasts of player performance, PECOTA player forecasts are ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Earthquake Prediction
Earthquake prediction is a branch of the science of geophysics, primarily seismology, concerned with the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes within stated limits, and particularly "the determination of parameters for the ''next'' strong earthquake to occur in a region". Earthquake prediction is sometimes distinguished from '' earthquake forecasting'', which can be defined as the probabilistic assessment of ''general'' earthquake hazard, including the frequency and magnitude of damaging earthquakes in a given area over years or decades. Prediction can be further distinguished from earthquake warning systems, which, upon detection of an earthquake, provide a real-time warning of seconds to neighboring regions that might be affected. In the 1970s, scientists were optimistic that a practical method for predicting earthquakes would soon be found, but by the 1990s continuing failure led many to question whether it was even possible. Demonstrabl ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Energy Forecasting
Energy forecasting includes forecasting demand ( load) and price of electricity, fossil fuels (natural gas, oil, coal) and renewable energy sources (RES; hydro, wind, solar). Forecasting can be both expected price value and probabilistic forecasting. Background When electricity sectors were regulated, utility monopolies used short-term load forecasts to ensure the reliability of supply and long-term demand forecasts as the basis for planning and investing in new capacity. However, since the early 1990s, the process of deregulation and the introduction of competitive electricity markets have been reshaping the landscape of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. In many countries worldwide, electricity is now traded under market rules using spot and derivative contracts. At the corporate level, electricity load and price forecasts have become a fundamental input to energy companies’ decision making mechanisms. The costs of over- or undercontract ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Political Forecasting
Political forecasting aims at forecasting the outcomes of political events. Political events can be a number of events such as diplomatic decisions, actions by political leaders and other areas relating to politicians and political institutions. The area of political forecasting concerning elections is highly popular, especially amongst mass market audiences. Political forecasting methodology makes frequent use of mathematics, statistics and data science. Political forecasting as it pertains to elections is related to psephology. History People have long been interested in predicting election outcomes. Quotes of betting odds on papal succession appear as early as 1503, when such wagering was already considered "an old practice." Political betting also has a long history in Great Britain. As one prominent example, Charles James Fox, the late-eighteenth-century Whig statesman, was known as an inveterate gambler. His biographer, George Otto Trevelyan, noted that"(f)or ten years, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Customer Demand Planning
Customer demand planning (CDP) is a business planning process that allows sales teams to develop demand forecasts as input to service-planning processes, production, inventory planning and revenue planning. Definition CDP is an aspect of managing value chains. Generally, the first step of CDP is to forecast product demand. A manager can plan resource deployment in accordance with the resulting forecasts. It's a bottom-up approach vs. top down planning. Associated risks with this method are: Low forecast accuracy and numbers of planners required. There are various software systems that are designed to forecast demand and plan operations. To test the added value of implementing this bottom-up approach, applications are providing simulation functionalities to estimate the resulting demand forecast accuracy (e.g. POS sales; sales invoices; shipments, etc.) In the manufacturer to retailer model, customer collaborative partnerships have become more common since the 1990s. Although ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Land Use Forecasting
Land-use forecasting undertakes to project the distribution and intensity of trip generating activities in the urban area. In practice, land-use models are demand-driven, using as inputs the aggregate information on growth produced by an aggregate economic forecasting activity. Land-use estimates are inputs to the transportation planning process. The discussion of land-use forecasting to follow begins with a review of the Chicago Area Transportation Study (CATS) effort. CATS researchers did interesting work, but did not produce a transferable forecasting model, and researchers elsewhere worked to develop models. After reviewing the CATS work, the discussion will turn to the first model to be widely known and emulated: the Lowry model developed by Ira S. Lowry when he was working for the Pittsburgh Regional Economic Study. Second and third generation Lowry models are now available and widely used, as well as interesting features incorporated in models that are not widely used. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sales Forecasting
Sales operations is a set of business activities and processes that help a sales organization run effectively, efficiently and in support of business strategies and objectives. Sales operations may also be referred to as sales, sales support, or business operations. Categories The set of sales operations activities vary from company to company but often include these five categories: Sales force enablement * Sales process development * Sales process adoption and compliance * Sales development * Sales training * Sales force communications management Business analytics * Sales metrics * Sales forecasting Sales administration * Proposal/contract development * Vendor selection and management * Planning process stewardship Attainment planning * Incentive sales compensation plan design * Go-to-market (GTM) strategy alignment with roles and components * Territory analysis and definition * Goal setting Sales operations mandate and design * Chief of staff to the sales organizati ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Supply Chain Management
In commerce, supply chain management (SCM) deals with a system of procurement (purchasing raw materials/components), operations management, logistics and marketing channels, through which raw materials can be developed into finished products and delivered to their end customers. A more narrow definition of supply chain management is the "design, planning, execution, control, and monitoring of supply chain activities with the objective of creating net value, building a competitive infrastructure, leveraging worldwide logistics, synchronising supply with demand and measuring performance globally". This can include the movement and storage of raw materials, work-in-process inventory, finished goods, and end to end order fulfilment from the point of origin to the point of consumption. Interconnected, interrelated or interlinked networks, channels and node businesses combine in the provision of products and services required by end customers in a supply chain. SCM is the br ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis, in accounting and finance, is the analysis of a business's financial statements (usually to analyze the business's assets, Liability (financial accounting), liabilities, and earnings); health; Competition, competitors and Market (economics), markets. It also considers the overall state of the economy and factors including interest rates, production, earnings, employment, GDP, housing, manufacturing and management. There are two basic approaches that can be used: bottom up analysis and top down analysis. These terms are used to distinguish such analysis from other types of investment analysis, such as technical analysis. Fundamental analysis is performed on historical and present data, but with the goal of making financial forecasts. There are several possible objectives: * to conduct a company stock valuation and predict its probable price evolution; * to make a projection on its business performance; * to evaluate its management and make internal business d ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Uncertainty
Uncertainty or incertitude refers to situations involving imperfect or unknown information. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown, and is particularly relevant for decision-making. Uncertainty arises in partially observable or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance, Laziness, indolence, or both. It arises in any number of fields, including insurance, philosophy, physics, statistics, economics, finance, medicine, psychology, sociology, engineering, metrology, meteorology, ecology and information science. Concepts Although the terms are used in various ways among the general public, many specialists in decision theory, statistics and other quantitative fields have defined uncertainty, risk, and their measurement as: Uncertainty The lack of certainty, a state of limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe the existing state, a future outcome, or more than one possible outcome. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
