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Ensemble Forecasting
Ensemble forecasting is a method used in or within numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set (or ensemble) of forecasts is produced. This set of forecasts aims to give an indication of the range of possible future states of the atmosphere. Ensemble forecasting is a form of Monte Carlo method, Monte Carlo analysis. The multiple simulations are conducted to account for the two usual sources of uncertainty in forecast models: (1) the errors introduced by the use of imperfect initial conditions, amplified by the Chaos theory, chaotic nature of the evolution equations of the atmosphere, which is often referred to as sensitive dependence on initial conditions; and (2) errors introduced because of imperfections in the model formulation, such as the approximate mathematical methods to solve the equations. Ideally, the verified future atmospheric state should fall within the predicted ensemble Standard deviation, spread, and the amou ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
WRF Rita Spread2 , the global science-based platform for sharing knowledge about sustainable resource management
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WRF may refer to: * Weather Research and Forecasting model, a numerical weather prediction system * Westminster Russia Forum, a UK organization promoting improved relations with Russia * Wiley Rein & Fielding, a Washington, DC based law firm * World Reformed Fellowship, an ecumenical Christian organization * World Resources Forum The World Resources Forum (WRF) is a non-profit organisation for knowledge sharing, sharing knowledge about the economic, political, social and environmental implications of global resource use. WRF promotes resource productivity among researc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Climate Diagnostics Center
The Earth System Research Laboratories (ESRL) is an alliance of four NOAA scientific labs, all located in the David Skaggs Research Center on the Department of Commerce campus in Boulder, Colorado. Organized under NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, ESRL scientists pursue cutting-edge research around the world to continually advance scientific understanding of weather, climate, air quality, water resources, and other components of the Earth system. The four labs’ intersecting missions have generated an extraordinary legacy of accomplishment over the past 50 years. Backed by scientists from cooperative research institutes at the University of Colorado and Colorado State University, ESRL has been an engine of scientific discovery, producing environmental models and products, along with forecasting and decision-support tools to protect life and safety, and support commerce at local to global scales. Together with its university partners and the nearby National C ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC), located in College Park, Maryland, is one of nine service centers under the umbrella of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a part of the National Weather Service (NWS), which in turn is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the U.S. Government. Until March 5, 2013 the Weather Prediction Center was known as the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). The Weather Prediction Center serves as a center for quantitative precipitation forecasting, medium range forecasting (three to eight days), and the interpretation of numerical weather prediction computer models. The Weather Prediction Center issues storm summaries on storm systems bringing significant rainfall and snowfall to portions of the United States. They also forecast precipitation amounts for the lower 48 United States for systems expected to impact the country over the next seven days. Advisories are also issued for tropical cyclo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Liouville's Theorem (Hamiltonian)
In physics, Liouville's theorem, named after the French mathematician Joseph Liouville, is a key theorem in classical statistical and Hamiltonian mechanics. It asserts that ''the phase-space distribution function is constant along the trajectories of the system''—that is that the density of system points in the vicinity of a given system point traveling through phase-space is constant with time. This time-independent density is in statistical mechanics known as the classical a priori probability. There are related mathematical results in symplectic topology and ergodic theory; systems obeying Liouville's theorem are examples of incompressible dynamical systems. There are extensions of Liouville's theorem to stochastic systems. Liouville equations The Liouville equation describes the time evolution of the ''phase space distribution function''. Although the equation is usually referred to as the "Liouville equation", Josiah Willard Gibbs was the first to recognize the impor ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Fluid Dynamics
In physics and engineering, fluid dynamics is a subdiscipline of fluid mechanics that describes the flow of fluids— liquids and gases. It has several subdisciplines, including ''aerodynamics'' (the study of air and other gases in motion) and hydrodynamics (the study of liquids in motion). Fluid dynamics has a wide range of applications, including calculating forces and moments on aircraft, determining the mass flow rate of petroleum through pipelines, predicting weather patterns, understanding nebulae in interstellar space and modelling fission weapon detonation. Fluid dynamics offers a systematic structure—which underlies these practical disciplines—that embraces empirical and semi-empirical laws derived from flow measurement and used to solve practical problems. The solution to a fluid dynamics problem typically involves the calculation of various properties of the fluid, such as flow velocity, pressure, density, and temperature, as functions of space and time. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Chaos Theory
Chaos theory is an interdisciplinary area of scientific study and branch of mathematics focused on underlying patterns and deterministic laws of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions, and were once thought to have completely random states of disorder and irregularities. Chaos theory states that within the apparent randomness of chaotic complex systems, there are underlying patterns, interconnection, constant feedback loops, repetition, self-similarity, fractals, and self-organization. The butterfly effect, an underlying principle of chaos, describes how a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state (meaning that there is sensitive dependence on initial conditions). A metaphor for this behavior is that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas. Small differences in initial conditions, such as those due to errors in measurements or due to rounding errors i ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Forecast Skill
In the fields of forecasting and prediction, forecast skill or prediction skill is any measure of the accuracy and/or degree of association of prediction to an observation or estimate of the actual value of what is being predicted (formally, the predictand); it may be quantified as a skill score. In meteorology, more specifically in weather forecasting, skill measures the superiority of a forecast over a simple historical baseline of past observations. The same forecast methodology can result in different skill scores at different places, or even in the same place for different seasons (e.g., spring weather might be driven by erratic local conditions, whereas winter cold snaps might correlate with observable polar winds). Weather forecast skill is often presented in the form of seasonal geographical maps. Forecast skill for single-value forecasts (i.e., time series of a scalar quantity) is commonly represented in terms of metrics such as correlation, root mean squared error, mea ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Edward Lorenz
Edward Norton Lorenz (May 23, 1917 – April 16, 2008) was an American mathematician and meteorologist who established the theoretical basis of weather and climate predictability, as well as the basis for computer-aided atmospheric physics and meteorology. He is best known as the founder of modern chaos theory, a branch of mathematics focusing on the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions. His discovery of deterministic chaos "profoundly influenced a wide range of basic sciences and brought about one of the most dramatic changes in mankind's view of nature since Sir Isaac Newton," according to the committee that awarded him the 1991 Kyoto Prize for basic sciences in the field of earth and planetary sciences. Biographical information Lorenz was born in 1917 in West Hartford, Connecticut. He acquired an early love of science from both sides of his family. His father, Edward Henry Lorenz (1882-1956), majored in mechanical engineering at the Mas ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Edward Lorenz
Edward Norton Lorenz (May 23, 1917 – April 16, 2008) was an American mathematician and meteorologist who established the theoretical basis of weather and climate predictability, as well as the basis for computer-aided atmospheric physics and meteorology. He is best known as the founder of modern chaos theory, a branch of mathematics focusing on the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions. His discovery of deterministic chaos "profoundly influenced a wide range of basic sciences and brought about one of the most dramatic changes in mankind's view of nature since Sir Isaac Newton," according to the committee that awarded him the 1991 Kyoto Prize for basic sciences in the field of earth and planetary sciences. Biographical information Lorenz was born in 1917 in West Hartford, Connecticut. He acquired an early love of science from both sides of his family. His father, Edward Henry Lorenz (1882-1956), majored in mechanical engineering at the Mas ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
NFCC
The PFF National Challenge Cup is an annual semi-professional Single-elimination tournament, knockout association football, football competition in men's domestic Football in Pakistan, Pakistani football within the Pakistan football league system. It is organized by and named after the Pakistan Football Federation. Khan Research Laboratories F.C., Khan Research Laboratories have won the most titles (six). WAPDA F.C., WAPDA are the current champions, winning the 2020 PFF National Challenge Cup, 2020 edition courtesy of a 1-0 win against SSGC F.C. in the final. Background Although it is an annual competition, it has not been held on a few occasions. The competition was not held from (1980–83, 1986, 1988–89, 1995, 1997, 2004, 2006–07, 2017, 2021–22). The tournament has seen various name changes throughout its establishment. Names Finals ;Wins by club Results by team Since its establishment, the National Challenge Cup has been won by 15 different teams. Teams shown in ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Spaghetti Plot
A spaghetti plot (also known as a spaghetti chart, spaghetti diagram, or spaghetti model) is a method of viewing data to visualize possible flows through systems. Flows depicted in this manner appear like noodles, hence the coining of this term. This method of statistics was first used to track routing through factories. Visualizing flow in this manner can reduce inefficiency within the flow of a system. In regards to animal populations and weather buoys drifting through the ocean, they are drawn to study distribution and migration patterns. Within meteorology, these diagrams can help determine confidence in a specific weather forecast, as well as positions and intensities of high and low pressure systems. They are composed of deterministic forecasts from atmospheric models or their various ensemble members. Within medicine, they can illustrate the effects of drugs on patients during drug trials. Applications Biology Spaghetti diagrams have been used to study why butterflies ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
