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Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
"Why Most Published Research Findings Are False" is a 2005 essay written by John Ioannidis, a professor at the Stanford School of Medicine, and published in ''PLOS Medicine''. It is considered foundational to the field of metascience. In the paper, Ioannidis argued that a large number, if not the majority, of published medical research papers contain results that cannot be replicated. In simple terms, the essay states that scientists use hypothesis testing to determine whether scientific discoveries are significant. "Significance" is formalized in terms of probability, and one formalized calculation ("''P value''") is reported in the scientific literature as a screening mechanism. Ioannidis posited assumptions about the way people perform and report these tests; then he constructed a statistical model which indicates that most published findings are false positive results. Argument Suppose that in a given scientific field there is a known baseline probability that a result i ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ioannidis (2005) Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
Ioannidis or Ioannides () is a Greek surname. The female version of the name is Ioannidou or Ioannides. ''Ioannidis'' or ''Ioannides'' is a patronymic surname which literally means "the son of Ioannis (Yiannis)", thus making it equivalent to English Johnson. Notable people with surname Ioannidis or Ioannides include: Men * Alkinoos Ioannidis (born 1969), Cypriot composer and singer * Andreas Ioannides (born 1975), Cypriot football player * Dimitrios Ioannides (1923–2010), military officer involved in the Greek military junta of 1967-1974 * Evgenios Ioannidis (born 2001), Greek chess player * Georgios Ioannidis (born 1988), Greek footballer * Giannis Ioannidis (born 1945), former basketball coach and politician * John Ioannidis (born 1965), medical researcher * Matt Ioannidis (born 1994), American football player * Paul Ioannidis (1924–2021), pilot and resistance fighter * Perikles Ioannidis (1881-1965), admiral and second husband of Princess Maria Georgievna of Greece and ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bias (statistics)
Statistical bias is a systematic tendency which causes differences between results and facts. The bias exists in numbers of the process of data analysis, including the source of the data, the estimator chosen, and the ways the data was analyzed. Bias may have a serious impact on results, for example, to investigate people's buying habits. If the sample size is not large enough, the results may not be representative of the buying habits of all the people. That is, there may be discrepancies between the survey results and the actual results. Therefore, understanding the source of statistical bias can help to assess whether the observed results are close to the real results. Bias can be differentiated from other mistakes such as accuracy (instrument failure/inadequacy), lack of data, or mistakes in transcription (typos). Bias implies that the data selection may have been skewed by the collection criteria. Bias does not preclude the existence of any other mistakes. One may have a poo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Berkeley Initiative For Transparency In The Social Sciences
The Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences, abbreviated BITSS, is an academic initiative dedicated to advancing transparency, reproducibility, and openness in social science research. It was established in 2012 by the University of California, Berkeley's Center for Effective Global Action. It has worked with the Center for Open Science to define and promote a set of best practices for social scientists to maximize transparency in their research. BITSS has also worked to promote registered reports, supporting journals like the Journal of Development Economics' in taking up the review track. In 2015, BITSS began awarding the annual Leamer-Rosenthal Prizes for Open Social Science to honor outstanding achievements and emerging leaders in promoting transparency in social science. Through itCatalyst program the initiative also supports and empowers over 150 graduate students, faculty, librarians, and early career researchers to advance open science all over the wo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Replication Crisis
The replication crisis (also called the replicability crisis and the reproducibility crisis) is an ongoing methodological crisis in which the results of many scientific studies are difficult or impossible to reproduce. Because the reproducibility of empirical results is an essential part of the scientific method, such failures undermine the credibility of theories building on them and potentially call into question substantial parts of scientific knowledge. The replication crisis is frequently discussed in relation to psychology and medicine, where considerable efforts have been undertaken to reinvestigate classic results, to determine both their reliability and, if found unreliable, the reasons for the failure. Data strongly indicate that other natural, and social sciences are affected as well. The phrase ''replication crisis'' was coined in the early 2010s as part of a growing awareness of the problem. Considerations of causes and remedies have given rise to a new scientific ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Metascience
Metascience (also known as meta-research) is the use of scientific methodology to study science itself. Metascience seeks to increase the quality of scientific research while reducing inefficiency. It is also known as "''research on research''" and "''the science of science''", as it uses research methods to study how research is done and find where improvements can be made. Metascience concerns itself with all fields of research and has been described as "a bird's eye view of science". In the words of John Ioannidis, "Science is the best thing that has happened to human beings ... but we can do it better." In 1966, an early meta-research paper examined the statistical methods of 295 papers published in ten high-profile medical journals. It found that "in almost 73% of the reports read ... conclusions were drawn when the justification for these conclusions was invalid." Meta-research in the following decades found many methodological flaws, inefficiencies, and poor practices in r ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Data Sharing
Data sharing is the practice of making data used for scholarly research available to other investigators. Many funding agencies, institutions, and publication venues have policies regarding data sharing because transparency and openness are considered by many to be part of the scientific method. A number of funding agencies and science journals require authors of peer-reviewed papers to share any supplemental information (raw data, statistical methods or source code) necessary to understand, develop or reproduce published research. A great deal of scientific research is not subject to data sharing requirements, and many of these policies have liberal exceptions. In the absence of any binding requirement, data sharing is at the discretion of the scientists themselves. In addition, in certain situations governments and institutions prohibit or severely limit data sharing to protect proprietary interests, national security, and subject/patient/victim confidentiality. Data sharing may ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Replication (statistics)
In engineering, science, and statistics, replication is the repetition of an experimental condition so that the variability associated with the phenomenon can be estimated. ASTM, in standard E1847, defines replication as "... the repetition of the set of all the treatment combinations to be compared in an experiment. Each of the repetitions is called a ''replicate''." Replication is not the same as repeated measurements of the same item: they are dealt with differently in statistical experimental design and data analysis. For proper sampling, a process or batch of products should be in reasonable statistical control; inherent random variation is present but variation due to assignable (special) causes is not. Evaluation or testing of a single item does not allow for item-to-item variation and may not represent the batch or process. Replication is needed to account for this variation among items and treatments. Example As an example, consider a continuous process which produces ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cherry Picking
Cherry picking, suppressing evidence, or the fallacy of incomplete evidence is the act of pointing to individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position while ignoring a significant portion of related and similar cases or data that may contradict that position. Cherry picking may be committed intentionally or unintentionally. The term is based on the perceived process of harvesting fruit, such as cherries. The picker would be expected to select only the ripest and healthiest fruits. An observer who sees only the selected fruit may thus wrongly conclude that most, or even all, of the tree's fruit is in a likewise good condition. This can also give a false impression of the quality of the fruit (since it is only a sample and is not a representative sample). A concept sometimes confused with cherry picking is the idea of gathering only the fruit that is easy to harvest, while ignoring other fruit that is higher up on the tree and thus more difficult to obtain (see ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Preregistration (science)
Preregistration is the practice of registering the hypotheses, methods, and/or analyses of a scientific study before it is conducted. This can include analyzing primary data or secondary data. Clinical trial registration is similar, although it may not require the registration of a study's analysis protocol. Finally, registered reports include the peer review and in principle acceptance of a study protocol prior to data collection. Preregistration assists in the identification and/or reduction of a variety of potentially problematic research practices, including p-hacking, publication bias, data dredging, inappropriate forms of post hoc analysis, and (relatedly) HARKing. It has recently gained prominence in the open science community as a potential solution to some of the issues that are thought to underlie the replication crisis. However, critics have argued that it may not be necessary when other open science practices are implemented such as Registered Reports. Types Standar ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Replication Crisis
The replication crisis (also called the replicability crisis and the reproducibility crisis) is an ongoing methodological crisis in which the results of many scientific studies are difficult or impossible to reproduce. Because the reproducibility of empirical results is an essential part of the scientific method, such failures undermine the credibility of theories building on them and potentially call into question substantial parts of scientific knowledge. The replication crisis is frequently discussed in relation to psychology and medicine, where considerable efforts have been undertaken to reinvestigate classic results, to determine both their reliability and, if found unreliable, the reasons for the failure. Data strongly indicate that other natural, and social sciences are affected as well. The phrase ''replication crisis'' was coined in the early 2010s as part of a growing awareness of the problem. Considerations of causes and remedies have given rise to a new scientific ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Groupthink
Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome. Cohesiveness, or the desire for cohesiveness, in a group may produce a tendency among its members to agree at all costs. This causes the group to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation. Groupthink is a construct of social psychology, but has an extensive reach and influences literature in the fields of communication studies, political science, management, and organizational theory, as well as important aspects of deviant religious cult behaviour. Overview Groupthink is sometimes stated to occur (more broadly) within natural groups within the community, for example to explain the lifelong different mindsets of those with differing political views (such as "conservatism" and "liberalism" in the U.S. political context or the purported benefits ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Conflicts Of Interest In Academic Publishing
Conflicts of interest (COIs) often arise in academic publishing. Such conflicts may cause wrongdoing and make it more likely. Ethical standards in academic publishing exist to avoid and deal with conflicts of interest, and the field continues to develop new standards. Standards vary between journals and are unevenly applied. According to the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors, " thors have a responsibility to evaluate the integrity, history, practices and reputation of the journals to which they submit manuscripts". Conflicts of interest increase the likelihood of biases arising; they can harm the quality of research and the public good (even if disclosed). Conflicts of interest can involve research sponsors, authors, journals, journal staff, publishers, and peer reviewers. Avoidance, disclosure, and tracking The avoidance of conflicts of interest and the changing of the structure of institutions to make them easier to avoid are frequently advocated for. Some in ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
