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Wet Bias
Wet bias is the phenomenon whereby some weather forecasters report an overestimated and exaggerated probability of precipitation to increase the usefulness and actionability of their forecast. The Weather Channel has been empirically shown, and has also admitted, to having a wet bias in the case of low probability of precipitation (for instance, a 5% probability may be reported as a 20% probability) but not at high probabilities of precipitation (so a 60% probability will be reported as a 60% probability). Some local television stations have been shown as having significantly greater wet bias, often reporting a 100% probability of precipitation in cases where it rains only 70% of the time. Discovery In 2002, Eric Floehr, a computer science graduate of the Ohio State University, started collecting historical data of weather forecasts made by the National Weather Service (NWS), The Weather Channel (TWC), and AccuWeather for the United States, and collected the data on a website calle ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Weather Forecasting
Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology forecasting, to predict the conditions of the Earth's atmosphere, atmosphere for a given location and time. People have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia and formally since the 19th century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere, land, and ocean and using meteorology to project how the atmosphere will change at a given place. Once calculated manually based mainly upon changes in atmospheric pressure, barometric pressure, current weather conditions, and sky condition or cloud cover, weather forecasting now relies on numerical weather prediction, computer-based models that take many atmospheric factors into account. Human input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections, knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Precipitation
In meteorology, precipitation is any product of the condensation of atmospheric water vapor that falls under gravitational pull from clouds. The main forms of precipitation include drizzle, rain, sleet, snow, ice pellets, graupel and hail. Precipitation occurs when a portion of the atmosphere becomes saturated with water vapor (reaching 100% relative humidity), so that the water condenses and "precipitates" or falls. Thus, fog and mist are not precipitation but colloids, because the water vapor does not condense sufficiently to precipitate. Two processes, possibly acting together, can lead to air becoming saturated: cooling the air or adding water vapor to the air. Precipitation forms as smaller droplets coalesce via collision with other rain drops or ice crystals within a cloud. Short, intense periods of rain in scattered locations are called showers. Moisture that is lifted or otherwise forced to rise over a layer of sub-freezing air at the surface may be condensed into ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
New York Times
''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid digital media, digital subscribers. It also is a producer of popular podcasts such as ''The Daily (podcast), The Daily''. Founded in 1851 by Henry Jarvis Raymond and George Jones (publisher), George Jones, it was initially published by Raymond, Jones & Company. The ''Times'' has won List of Pulitzer Prizes awarded to The New York Times, 132 Pulitzer Prizes, the most of any newspaper, and has long been regarded as a national "newspaper of record". For print it is ranked List of newspapers by circulation, 18th in the world by circulation and List of newspapers in the United States, 3rd in the U.S. The paper is owned by the New York Times Company, which is Public company, publicly traded. It has been governed by the Sulzberger family since 189 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
The Weather Channel
The Weather Channel (TWC) is an American pay television channel owned by Weather Group, LLC, a subsidiary of Allen Media Group. The channel's headquarters are in Atlanta, Georgia. Launched on May 2, 1982, the channel broadcasts weather forecasts and weather-related news and analysis, along with documentaries and entertainment programming related to weather. A sister network, Weatherscan, was a digital cable and satellite service that offered 24-hour automated local forecasts and radar imagery. Weatherscan was officially shut down on December 9, 2022. The Weather Channel also produces outsourced weathercasts, notably for CBS News and RFD-TV. The Weather Channel was a subsidiary of the Weather Company until the latter was bought by IBM in 2016. The Weather Channel licenses its weather data from IBM. History The Weather Channel was founded on July 18, 1980,USPTO filings: First Use (not First Use in Commerce date on various filings, including filing w/ serial number 73369821) b ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ohio State University
The Ohio State University, commonly called Ohio State or OSU, is a public land-grant research university in Columbus, Ohio. A member of the University System of Ohio, it has been ranked by major institutional rankings among the best public universities in the United States. Founded in 1870 as the state's land-grant university and the ninth university in Ohio with the Morrill Act of 1862, Ohio State was originally known as the Ohio Agricultural and Mechanical College and focused on various agricultural and mechanical disciplines, but it developed into a comprehensive university under the direction of then-Governor and later U.S. president Rutherford B. Hayes, and in 1878, the Ohio General Assembly passed a law changing the name to "the Ohio State University" and broadening the scope of the university. Admission standards tightened and became greatly more selective throughout the 2000s and 2010s. Ohio State's political science department and faculty have greatly contri ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
National Weather Service
The National Weather Service (NWS) is an Government agency, agency of the Federal government of the United States, United States federal government that is tasked with providing weather forecasts, warnings of hazardous weather, and other weather-related products to organizations and the public for the purposes of protection, safety, and general information. It is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) branch of the United States Department of Commerce, Department of Commerce, and is headquartered in Silver Spring, Maryland, Silver Spring, Maryland, within the Washington metropolitan area. The agency was known as the United States Weather Bureau from 1890 until it adopted its current name in 1970. The NWS performs its primary task through a collection of national and regional centers, and 122 local List of National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices, Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). As the NWS is an agency of the U.S. federal government, most o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
AccuWeather
AccuWeather Inc. is an American media company that provides commercial weather forecasting services worldwide. AccuWeather was founded in 1962 by Joel N. Myers, then a Pennsylvania State University graduate student working on a master's degree in meteorology. His first customer was a natural gas, gas company in Pennsylvania. While running his company, Myers also worked as a member of Penn State's meteorology faculty. The company adopted the name "AccuWeather" in 1971. AccuWeather is headquartered in Ferguson Township, Centre County, Pennsylvania, Ferguson Township, just outside of State College, Pennsylvania, State College, Pennsylvania, with offices at 80 Pine Street in Financial_District,_Manhattan, Manhattan's Financial District in addition to Wichita, Kansas, Wichita, Kansas, and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Internationally, AccuWeather has offices in Montreal, Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul, and Mumbai. Company profile AccuWeather provides weather forecasts and warnings and additional ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Monthly Weather Review
The ''Monthly Weather Review'' is a peer-reviewed scientific journal published by the American Meteorological Society. It covers research related to analysis and prediction of observed and modeled circulations of the atmosphere, including technique development, data assimilation, model validation, and relevant case studies. This includes papers on numerical techniques and data assimilation techniques that apply to the atmosphere and/or ocean environment. The editor-in-chief is David M. Schultz (University of Manchester). History The journal was established in July 1872 by the United States Army Signal Corps. It was issued by the Office of the Chief Signal Officer from 1872 until 1891. In 1891, the Signal Office's meteorological responsibilities were transferred to the Weather Bureau under the United States Department of Agriculture. The Weather Bureau published the journal until 1970 when the Bureau became part of the newly formed National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Nate Silver
Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics), basketball, and elections (see psephology). He is the founder and editor-in-chief of ''FiveThirtyEight'' and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009. Silver was named one of Time 100, The World's 100 Most Influential People by ''Time (magazine), Time'' in 2009 after an election forecasting system he developed successfully predicted the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 United States presidential election, 2008 U.S. Presidential election. In the 2012 United States presidential election, the forecasting system correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the Washington, D.C., District of Columbi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
The Signal And The Noise
''The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail – but Some Don't'' (alternatively stylized as ''The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't'') is a 2012 book by Nate Silver detailing the art of using probability and statistics as applied to real-world circumstances. The book includes case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, Financial crisis of 2007–2008, the 2008 financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting. The book was the recipient of the 2013 Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science, Phi Beta Kappa Society book award in science. It has also been translated into several languages. Synopsis The book emphasizes Silver's skill, which is the practical art of mathematical model building using probability and statistics. Silver takes a big-picture approach to using statistical tools, combining sources of unique data (e.g., timing a minor league ball player's fastball using a radar gun), with historical data and principles of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Systematic Bias
Systematic may refer to: Science * Short for systematic error * Systematic fault * Systematic bias, errors that are not determined by chance but are introduced by an inaccuracy (involving either the observation or measurement process) inherent to the system * Something related to systematics or taxonomy, sub-discipline of biology Economy * Systematic trading (also known as mechanical trading) is a way of defining trade goals, risk controls and rules that can make investment and trading decisions in a methodical way * Systematic Paris-Region: French business cluster devoted to complex systems Music * Systematic (band): American hard rock band * Systematic Chaos: ninth studio album by American progressive metal band Dream Theater See also * Systematics (other) * Systemic (other) Systemic fundamental to a predominant social, economic, or political practice. This refers to: In medicine In medicine, ''systemic'' means affecting the whole body, or at lea ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bias
Bias is a disproportionate weight ''in favor of'' or ''against'' an idea or thing, usually in a way that is closed-minded, prejudicial, or unfair. Biases can be innate or learned. People may develop biases for or against an individual, a group, or a belief. In science and engineering, a bias is a systematic error. Statistical bias results from an unfair sampling of a population, or from an estimation process that does not give accurate results on average. Etymology The word appears to derive from Old Provençal into Old French ''biais'', "sideways, askance, against the grain". Whence comes French ''biais'', "a slant, a slope, an oblique". It seems to have entered English via the game of bowls, where it referred to balls made with a greater weight on one side. Which expanded to the figurative use, "a one-sided tendency of the mind", and, at first especially in law, "undue propensity or prejudice". Types of bias Cognitive biases A cognitive bias is a repeating or basic mi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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