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Variable Change
The Monty Hall problem is a brain teaser, in the form of a probability puzzle, loosely based on the American television game show ''Let's Make a Deal'' and named after its original host, Monty Hall. The problem was originally posed (and solved) in a letter by Steve Selvin to the ''American Statistician'' in 1975. It became famous as a question from reader Craig F. Whitaker's letter quoted in Marilyn vos Savant's "Ask Marilyn" column in ''Parade'' magazine in 1990: Vos Savant's response was that the contestant should switch to the other door. Under the standard assumptions, the switching strategy has a probability of winning the car, while the strategy that remains with the initial choice has only a probability. When the player first makes their choice, there is a chance that the car is behind one of the doors not chosen. This probability does not change after the host reveals a goat behind one of the unchosen doors. When the host provides information about the 2 unchosen do ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Monty Open Door
Monty is a masculine given name, often a short form of Montgomery, Montague and other similar names. It is also a surname. Notable people with the name or nickname include: First name Nickname *Bernard Montgomery (1887–1976), British Second World War field marshal *Bruce Montgomery (musical director) (1927–2008), American music composer and former director of the Penn Glee Club *Chris Montgomery (born 1972), American computer specialist and founder of the Xiph.Org Foundation *Colin Montgomerie (born 1963), Scottish golfer *Monty Montgomery (American football) (born 1973), former American football cornerback * Richard Montgomerie (1999–2007), Sussex cricketer *Monty Basgall (1922–2005), American Major League Baseball player and coach *Monty Berman (1905–2006), British cinematographer and film and television producer *Monty Bowden (1865–1892), English cricketer and wicket-keeper *Monty Burton (1918–1999), British pilot *Montgomery Clift (1920–1966), American actor ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Monty Hall Problem - Standard Probabilities
Monty is a masculine given name, often a short form of Montgomery, Montague and other similar names. It is also a surname. Notable people with the name or nickname include: First name Nickname *Bernard Montgomery (1887–1976), British Second World War field marshal *Bruce Montgomery (musical director) (1927–2008), American music composer and former director of the Penn Glee Club *Chris Montgomery (born 1972), American computer specialist and founder of the Xiph.Org Foundation *Colin Montgomerie (born 1963), Scottish golfer *Monty Montgomery (American football) (born 1973), former American football cornerback * Richard Montgomerie (1999–2007), Sussex cricketer *Monty Basgall (1922–2005), American Major League Baseball player and coach *Monty Berman (1905–2006), British cinematographer and film and television producer *Monty Bowden (1865–1892), English cricketer and wicket-keeper *Monty Burton (1918–1999), British pilot *Montgomery Clift (1920–1966), American actor ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Tree
A decision tree is a decision support tool that uses a tree-like model of decisions and their possible consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource costs, and utility. It is one way to display an algorithm that only contains conditional control statements. Decision trees are commonly used in operations research, specifically in decision analysis, to help identify a strategy most likely to reach a goal, but are also a popular tool in machine learning. Overview A decision tree is a flowchart-like structure in which each internal node represents a "test" on an attribute (e.g. whether a coin flip comes up heads or tails), each branch represents the outcome of the test, and each leaf node represents a class label (decision taken after computing all attributes). The paths from root to leaf represent classification rules. In decision analysis, a decision tree and the closely related influence diagram are used as a visual and analytical decision support tool, where t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Conditional Probability
In probability theory, conditional probability is a measure of the probability of an event occurring, given that another event (by assumption, presumption, assertion or evidence) has already occurred. This particular method relies on event B occurring with some sort of relationship with another event A. In this event, the event B can be analyzed by a conditional probability with respect to A. If the event of interest is and the event is known or assumed to have occurred, "the conditional probability of given ", or "the probability of under the condition ", is usually written as or occasionally . This can also be understood as the fraction of probability B that intersects with A: P(A \mid B) = \frac. For example, the probability that any given person has a cough on any given day may be only 5%. But if we know or assume that the person is sick, then they are much more likely to be coughing. For example, the conditional probability that someone unwell (sick) is coughing might be ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Monty Tree Door1
Monty is a masculine given name, often a short form of Montgomery, Montague and other similar names. It is also a surname. Notable people with the name or nickname include: First name Nickname *Bernard Montgomery (1887–1976), British Second World War field marshal *Bruce Montgomery (musical director) (1927–2008), American music composer and former director of the Penn Glee Club *Chris Montgomery (born 1972), American computer specialist and founder of the Xiph.Org Foundation *Colin Montgomerie (born 1963), Scottish golfer *Monty Montgomery (American football) (born 1973), former American football cornerback * Richard Montgomerie (1999–2007), Sussex cricketer * Monty Basgall (1922–2005), American Major League Baseball player and coach *Monty Berman (1905–2006), British cinematographer and film and television producer *Monty Bowden (1865–1892), English cricketer and wicket-keeper *Monty Burton (1918–1999), British pilot *Montgomery Clift (1920–1966), American acto ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Conditional Probabilities
In probability theory, conditional probability is a measure of the probability of an event occurring, given that another event (by assumption, presumption, assertion or evidence) has already occurred. This particular method relies on event B occurring with some sort of relationship with another event A. In this event, the event B can be analyzed by a conditional probability with respect to A. If the event of interest is and the event is known or assumed to have occurred, "the conditional probability of given ", or "the probability of under the condition ", is usually written as or occasionally . This can also be understood as the fraction of probability B that intersects with A: P(A \mid B) = \frac. For example, the probability that any given person has a cough on any given day may be only 5%. But if we know or assume that the person is sick, then they are much more likely to be coughing. For example, the conditional probability that someone unwell (sick) is coughing might be ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Status Quo Bias
Status quo bias is an emotional bias; a preference for the maintenance of one's current or previous state of affairs, or a preference to not undertake any action to change this current or previous state. The current baseline (or status quo) is taken as a reference point, and any change from that baseline is perceived as a loss or gain. Corresponding to different alternatives, this current baseline or default option is perceived and evaluated by individuals as a positive. Status quo bias should be distinguished from a rational preference for the status quo ante, as when the current state of affairs is objectively superior to the available alternatives, or when imperfect information is a significant problem. A large body of evidence, however, shows that status quo bias frequently affects human decision-making. Status quo bias should also be distinguished from psychological inertia, which refers to a lack of intervention in the current course of affairs. The bias intersects with oth ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Endowment Effect
In psychology and behavioral economics, the endowment effect (also known as divestiture aversion and related to the mere ownership effect in social psychology) is the finding that people are more likely to retain an object they own than acquire that same object when they do not own it. The endowment theory can be defined as "an application of prospect theory positing that loss aversion associated with ownership explains observed exchange asymmetries." This is typically illustrated in two ways. In a valuation paradigm, people's maximum willingness to pay (WTP) to acquire an object is typically lower than the least amount they are willing to accept (WTA) to give up that same object when they own it—even when there is no cause for attachment, or even if the item was only obtained minutes ago. In an exchange paradigm, people given a good are reluctant to trade it for another good of similar value. For example, participants first given a Swiss chocolate bar were generally willing to ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cognitive Psychology
Cognitive psychology is the scientific study of mental processes such as attention, language use, memory, perception, problem solving, creativity, and reasoning. Cognitive psychology originated in the 1960s in a break from behaviorism, which held from the 1920s to 1950s that unobservable mental processes were outside the realm of empirical science. This break came as researchers in linguistics and cybernetics, as well as applied psychology, used models of mental processing to explain human behavior. Work derived from cognitive psychology was integrated into other branches of psychology and various other modern disciplines like cognitive science, linguistics, and economics. The domain of cognitive psychology overlaps with that of cognitive science, which takes a more interdisciplinary approach and includes studies of non-human subjects and artificial intelligence. History Philosophically, ruminations on the human mind and its processes have been around since the times of the a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
The Straight Dope
"The Straight Dope" was a question-and-answer newspaper column written under the pseudonym Cecil Adams. Contributions were made by multiple authors, and it was illustrated (also pseudonymously) by Slug Signorino. It was first published in 1973 in the ''Chicago Reader'' as well as in print syndication nationally in the United States, and on a website with the same name. On more than one occasion, the authors (i.e. Cecil Adams) were forced to retract or modify an answer when confronted by the readers. Following the column of June 27, 2018, the "Straight Dope" column was placed on hiatus, with no decision made regarding its future. The website and associated forum continue to be active. Chicago's public radio station, WBEZ, has purchased Sun-Times Media (STM), which owns the Straight Dope, including the SDMB. Name and tagline The column derives its name from the American idiom meaning roughly "the true information; the full story" and covers many subjects, including history, scien ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Keith Devlin
Keith J. Devlin (born 16 March 1947) is a British mathematician and popular science writer. Since 1987 he has lived in the United States. He has dual British-American citizenship.Curriculum vitae Profkeithdevlin.com, accessed 3 February 2014. Biography He was born and grew up in England, in . There he attended a local primary school followed by Greatfield High School in Hull. In the last school year he was appointed head boy. Devlin earned a BSc (special) in mathem ...[...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
