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Uniform National Swing
Uniform national swing, or UNS is a system for translating opinion polls, which give overall vote proportions, to expected eventual parliamentary seats in a constituency based first past the post system, as in the UK general elections. Under the uniform national swing, changes in the vote proportions ( swing) since the previous election are assumed to be constant across all constituencies. By applying this change to the previous per-constituency based vote proportions, a prediction for which party would have the most votes in each constituency may be made, which is then counted and totalled for a final seat count. Alternative methods exist, such as the proportional national swing system. However, UNS has proven acceptably accurate in the past, and so is commonly used in UK media for seat count predictions. External links BBC seat calculator using UNS for the 2010 United Kingdom general election The 2010 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 6 May 2010, with 45, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Opinion Poll
An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll (although strictly a poll is an actual election) is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster. History The first known example of an opinion poll was a tallies of voter preferences reported on Telegram Messenger to the 1824 presidential election, showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for the United States Presidency. Since Jackson won the popular vote in that state and the whole country, such straw votes gradually became more popular, but they remained local, usually citywide phenomena. In 1916, ''The Literary Digest'' embarked on a national survey (partly as a circulation-raising exercise) and correc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Constituency
An electoral district, also known as an election district, legislative district, voting district, constituency, riding, ward, division, or (election) precinct is a subdivision of a larger State (polity), state (a country, administrative region, or other polity) created to provide its population with representation in the larger state's legislative body. That body, or the state's constitution or a body established for that purpose, determines each district's boundaries and whether each will be represented by a Single-member district, single member or multiple members. Generally, only voters (''constituents'') who Residency (domicile), reside within the district are permitted to vote in an election held there. District representatives may be elected by a first past the post, first-past-the-post system, a Proportional representation, proportional representative system, or another voting system, voting method. They may be selected by a direct election under universal suffrage, an ind ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
First Past The Post
In a first-past-the-post electoral system (FPTP or FPP), formally called single-member plurality voting (SMP) when used in single-member districts or informally choose-one voting in contrast to ranked voting, or score voting, voters cast their vote for a candidate of their choice, and the candidate who receives the most votes wins even if the top candidate gets less than 50%, which can happen when there are more than two popular candidates. As a winner-take-all method, FPTP often produces disproportional results (when electing members of an assembly, such as a parliament) in the sense that political parties do not get representation according to their share of the popular vote. This usually favours the largest party and parties with strong regional support to the detriment of smaller parties without a geographically concentrated base. Supporters of electoral reform are generally highly critical of FPTP because of this and point out other flaws, such as FPTP's vulnerability t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Swing (politics)
An electoral swing analysis (or swing) shows the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage. A multi-party swing is an indicator of a change in the electorate's preference between candidates or parties, often between major parties in a two-party system. A swing can be calculated for the electorate as a whole, for a given electoral district or for a particular demographic. A swing is particularly useful for analysing change in voter support over time, or as a tool for predicting the outcome of elections in constituency-based systems. Swing is also usefully deployed when analysing the shift in voter intentions revealed by (political) opinion polls or to compare polls concisely which may rely on differing samples and on markedly different swings and therefore predict extraneous results. Calculation A swing is calculated by comparing the percentage of the vote in a particular election to the percentage of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
2010 United Kingdom General Election
The 2010 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 6 May 2010, with 45,597,461 registered voters entitled to vote to elect members to the House of Commons. The election took place in 650 constituencies across the United Kingdom under the first-past-the-post system. The election resulted in a large swing to the Conservative Party similar to that seen in 1979, the last time a Conservative opposition had ousted a Labour government. The Labour Party lost the 66-seat majority it had previously enjoyed, but no party achieved the 326 seats needed for a majority. The Conservatives, led by David Cameron, won the most votes and seats, but still fell 20 seats short. This resulted in a hung parliament where no party was able to command a majority in the House of Commons. This was only the second general election since the Second World War to return a hung parliament, the first being the February 1974 election. For the leaders of all three major political parties, this was t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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