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UCERF2
The 2008 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2, or UCERF2, is one of a series of earthquake forecasts prepared for the state California by the ''Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities'' (WGCEP), collaboration of the U.S. Geological Survey, the California Geological Survey, and the Southern California Earthquake Center, with funding from the California Earthquake Authority. UCERF2 was superseded by UCERF3 in 2015. Of the hundreds of seismogenic (earthquake causing) fault (geology), geologic faults in California, UCERF classifies only six faults as Type A sources, meaning there is sufficient information to both estimate and model the probability of a Magnitude (M) 6.7 or greater earthquake within 30 years. These six faults (summarized in #Table_A, Table A, below) are the: (1) San Andreas (split into northern and southern sections, (2) San Jacinto, (3) Elsinore, (4) Garlock, (5) Calaveras, and (6) Hayward-Rodgers Creek. Faults which are known to be sl ...
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UCERF Participation Map
The 2015 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3, or UCERF3, is the latest official earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) for the state of California, superseding UCERF2. It provides authoritative estimates of the likelihood and severity of potentially damaging earthquake ruptures in the long- and near-term. Combining this with ground motion models produces estimates of the severity of ground shaking that can be expected during a given period (seismic hazard), and of the threat to the built environment (seismic risk). This information is used to inform engineering design and building codes, planning for disaster, and evaluating whether earthquake insurance premiums are sufficient for the prospective losses. A variety of hazard metrics can be calculated with UCERF3; a typical metric is the likelihood of a magnitude M 6.7 earthquake (the size of the 1994 Northridge earthquake) in the 30 years (typical life of a mortgage) since 2014. UCERF3 was prepared by the ''Working ...
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UCERF3
The 2015 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3, or UCERF3, is the latest official earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) for the state of California, superseding UCERF2. It provides authoritative estimates of the likelihood and severity of potentially damaging earthquake ruptures in the long- and near-term. Combining this with ground motion models produces estimates of the severity of ground shaking that can be expected during a given period (seismic hazard), and of the threat to the built environment (seismic risk). This information is used to inform engineering design and building codes, planning for disaster, and evaluating whether earthquake insurance premiums are sufficient for the prospective losses. A variety of hazard metrics can be calculated with UCERF3; a typical metric is the likelihood of a magnitude M 6.7 earthquake (the size of the 1994 Northridge earthquake) in the 30 years (typical life of a mortgage) since 2014. UCERF3 was prepared by the ''Working ...
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Garlock Fault
The Garlock Fault is a left-lateral strike-slip fault running northeast–southwest along the north margins of the Mojave Desert of Southern California, for much of its length along the southern base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Geography Stretching for , it is the second-longest fault in California, and one of the most prominent geological features in the southern part of the state. It marks the northern boundary of the area known as the Mojave Block, as well as the southern ends of the Sierra Nevada and the valleys of the westernmost Basin and Range province. The Garlock Fault runs from a junction with the San Andreas Fault in the Antelope Valley, eastward to a junction with the Death Valley Fault Zone in the eastern Mojave Desert. It is named after the historic mining town of Garlock, founded in 1894 by Eugene Garlock and now a ghost town. Relatively few communities lie directly along the Garlock, as it is primarily situated in the desert, with Frazier Park, Tehachapi, ...
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2007 Alum Rock Earthquake
The 2007 Alum Rock earthquake occurred on in Alum Rock Park in San Jose, in the U.S. state of California. It measured 5.6 on the moment magnitude scale and had a maximum Mercalli intensity of VI (''Strong''). The event was then the largest in the San Francisco Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, which measured 6.9 on the moment magnitude scale, but was later surpassed by the 2014 South Napa earthquake. Ground shaking from the Alum Rock quake reached San Francisco and Oakland and other points further north. Sixty thousand felt reports existed far beyond Santa Rosa, as far north as Eugene, Oregon. Earthquake The shock originated on the Calaveras Fault and ruptured an area of the fault for a length of about beginning at the hypocenter and extending southeast. There was no evidence of any surface rupture along the fault caused by the earthquake. David Oppenheimer, a seismologist at the United States Geological Survey (USGS), said that although the quake was felt as a ...
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1984 Morgan Hill Earthquake
The 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake (also known as the Halls Valley earthquake) occurred on April 24 at in the Santa Clara Valley of Northern California. The shock had a moment magnitude of 6.2 and a maximum Mercalli intensity scale, Mercalli intensity of VIII (''Severe''). The epicenter was located near Mount Hamilton (California), Mount Hamilton in the Diablo Range of the California Coast Ranges. Nearby communities (including Morgan Hill, California, Morgan Hill) sustained serious damage with financial losses of at least United States dollar, US$7.5 million. Earthquake The earthquake occurred along the Calaveras Fault, with the epicenter northeast of San Jose, California, San Jose, and at a depth of . The shock was felt in Sacramento, California, Sacramento in California's central valley. Damage The earthquake was reported to be felt over an area of . Morgan Hill, California, Morgan Hill was the worst affected, with a number of mobile homes sliding off foundations, and moderate d ...
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1979 Coyote Lake Earthquake
The 1979 Coyote Lake earthquake occurred at on August 6 with a Moment magnitude scale, moment magnitude of 5.7 and a maximum Mercalli intensity scale, Mercalli Intensity of VII (''Very strong''). The shock occurred on the Calaveras Fault near Coyote Lake (Santa Clara County, California), Coyote Lake in Santa Clara County, California and resulted in a number of injuries, including some that required hospitalization. Most of the $500,000 in damage that was caused was non-structural, but several businesses were closed for repairs. Data from numerous strong motion instruments was used to determine the type, depth, and extent of slip. A non-destructive aftershock sequence that lasted throughout the remainder of the month was of interest to seismologists, especially with regard to fault creep, and following the event local governments evaluated their response to the incident. Tectonic setting The San Andreas Fault system (SAF) is a network of right-lateral Fault (geology)#Strike-slip ...
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Calaveras Fault
The Calaveras Fault is a major branch of the San Andreas Fault System that is located in northern California in the San Francisco Bay Area. Activity on the different segments of the fault includes moderate and large earthquakes as well as aseismic creep. The last large event was the magnitude 6.2 1984 Morgan Hill event. The most recent moderate earthquakes were the magnitude 5.1 event on 25 October 2022, and the magnitude 5.6 2007 Alum Rock event. It is believed to link with the Hayward fault, as well as the West Napa Fault, north of the Carquinez Strait. It passes through or near the cities of Alamo, Danville, San Ramon, Dublin, Pleasanton, Sunol, Milpitas, San Jose, Gilroy, and Hollister. Location To the east of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault, the Calaveras fault extends , splaying from the San Andreas fault near Hollister and terminating at Danville at its northern end. It runs east of the San Andreas, diverging from it in the vicinity of Hollister, California, and ...
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Elsinore Fault Zone
The Elsinore Fault Zone is a large right-lateral strike-slip geological fault structure in Southern California. The fault is part of the trilateral split of the San Andreas fault system and is one of the largest, though quietest faults in Southern California. Fault characteristics The Elsinore fault zone, not including Whittier, Chino, and Laguna Salada faults, is long with a slip-rate of 4.0 millimeters/year (0.15 in/yr). It is estimated that this zone is capable of producing a quake of 6.5–7.5 MW. The projected interval between major rupture events is 250 years. The last major rupture event on the main Elsinore fault was in 1910 with a 6 MW earthquake centered just northwest of the city of Lake Elsinore. Fault segments and geography The fault runs from the mountainous Peninsular Ranges region between El Centro and San Diego, northwest to the Chino Hills range and Chino Hills. On the southern end of the fault zone is the southeastern extension of the Elsi ...
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San Jacinto Fault Zone
The San Jacinto Fault Zone (SJFZ) is a major strike-slip fault zone that runs through San Bernardino, Riverside, San Diego, and Imperial Counties in Southern California. The SJFZ is a component of the larger San Andreas transform system and is considered to be the most seismically active fault zone in the area. Together they relieve the majority of the stress between the Pacific and North American tectonic plates. The SJFZ itself consists of many individual fault segments, some of which have only been individualized as recently as the 1980s, but activity along the line of faults has been documented since the 1890s. One segment of the SJFZ, the Anza seismic gap, has not experienced any major activity since instrumental records have been kept. Each segment was evaluated for its seismic risk and was assigned a probability for the occurrence of a large rupture for the thirty-year period starting in 1995. While several of the large earthquakes along the SJFZ have not resulted in ...
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1857 Fort Tejon Earthquake
The 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake occurred at about 8:20 a.m. (Pacific time) on January 9 in central and Southern California. One of the largest recorded earthquakes in the United States, with an estimated moment magnitude of 7.9, it ruptured the southern part of the San Andreas Fault for a length of about 225 miles (350 km), between Parkfield and Wrightwood. Though the shock was centered near Parkfield, the event is referred to as the Fort Tejon earthquake, because that was the location of the greatest damage. Fort Tejon is just north of the junction of the San Andreas and Garlock Faults, where the Tehachapi, San Emigdio, and Sierra Pelona Transverse Ranges come together. The earthquake is the most recent large event to occur along that portion of the San Andreas Fault, and is estimated to have had a maximum perceived intensity of IX (''Violent'') on the Modified Mercalli scale (MMI) near Fort Tejon in the Tehachapi Mountains, and along the San Andreas Fault from Mil P ...
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1906 San Francisco Earthquake
At 05:12 Pacific Standard Time on Wednesday, April 18, 1906, the coast of Northern California was struck by a major earthquake with an estimated moment magnitude of 7.9 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of XI (''Extreme''). High-intensity shaking was felt from Eureka on the North Coast to the Salinas Valley, an agricultural region to the south of the San Francisco Bay Area. Devastating fires soon broke out in San Francisco and lasted for several days. More than 3,000 people died, and over 80% of the city was destroyed. The events are remembered as one of the worst and deadliest earthquakes in the history of the United States. The death toll remains the greatest loss of life from a natural disaster in California's history and high on the lists of American disasters. Tectonic setting The San Andreas Fault is a continental transform fault that forms part of the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate. The strike-slip fault is characterize ...
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