Sovereign Credit Risk
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Sovereign Credit Risk
Sovereign credit risk is the risk of a government becoming unwilling or unable to meet its loan obligations, as happened to Cyprus in 2013. Many countries faced sovereign risk in the Great Recession of the late-2000s. This risk can be mitigated by creditors and stakeholders taking extra precaution when making investments or financial transactions with firms based in foreign countries. Five key factors that affect the probability of sovereign debt leading to sovereign risk are: debt service ratio, import ratio, investment ratio, variance of export revenue, and domestic money supply growth. The probability of loss increases with increases in debt service ratio, import ratio, variance of export revenue and/or domestic money supply growth. Frenkel, Karmann, Raahish and Scholtens also argue that the likelihood of rescheduling decreases as investment ratio increases, due to resultant economic productivity gains. However, Saunders argues that debt rescheduling can become more likely if t ...
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Loan
In finance, a loan is the lending of money by one or more individuals, organizations, or other entities to other individuals, organizations, etc. The recipient (i.e., the borrower) incurs a debt and is usually liable to pay interest on that debt until it is repaid as well as to repay the principal amount borrowed. The document evidencing the debt (e.g., a promissory note) will normally specify, among other things, the principal amount of money borrowed, the interest rate the lender is charging, and the date of repayment. A loan entails the reallocation of the subject asset(s) for a period of time, between the lender and the borrower. The interest provides an incentive for the lender to engage in the loan. In a legal loan, each of these obligations and restrictions is enforced by contract, which can also place the borrower under additional restrictions known as loan covenants. Although this article focuses on monetary loans, in practice, any material object might be lent. Ac ...
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Financial Ratio
A financial ratio or accounting ratio is a relative magnitude of two selected numerical values taken from an enterprise's financial statements. Often used in accounting, there are many standard ratios used to try to evaluate the overall financial condition of a corporation or other organization. Financial ratios may be used by managers within a firm, by current and potential shareholders (owners) of a firm, and by a firm's creditors. Financial analysts use financial ratios to compare the strengths and weaknesses in various companies. If shares in a company are traded in a financial market, the market price of the shares is used in certain financial ratios. Ratios can be expressed as a Decimal separator, decimal value, such as 0.10, or given as an equivalent percent value, such as 10%. Some ratios are usually quoted as percentages, especially ratios that are usually or always less than 1, such as earnings yield, while others are usually quoted as decimal numbers, especially ratios ...
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Credit Rating
A credit rating is an evaluation of the credit risk of a prospective debtor (an individual, a business, company or a government), predicting their ability to pay back the debt, and an implicit forecast of the likelihood of the debtor defaulting. The credit rating represents an evaluation of a credit rating agency of the qualitative and quantitative information for the prospective debtor, including information provided by the prospective debtor and other non-public information obtained by the credit rating agency's analysts. Credit reporting (or credit score) – is a subset of credit rating – it is a numeric evaluation of an ''individual's'' credit worthiness, which is done by a credit bureau or consumer credit reporting agency. Sovereign credit ratings A sovereign credit rating is the credit rating of a sovereign entity, such as a national government. The sovereign credit rating indicates the risk level of the investing environment of a country and is used by investors whe ...
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2012–2013 Cypriot Financial Crisis
The 2012–2013 Cypriot financial crisis was an economic crisis in the Republic of Cyprus that involved the exposure of Cypriot banks to overleveraged local property companies, the Greek government-debt crisis, the downgrading of the Cypriot government's bond credit rating to junk status by international credit rating agencies, the consequential inability to refund its state expenses from the international markets and the reluctance of the government to restructure the troubled Cypriot financial sector. On 25 March 2013, a €10 billion international bailout by the Eurogroup, European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB), and International Monetary Fund (IMF) was announced, in return for Cyprus agreeing to close the country's second-largest bank, the Cyprus Popular Bank (also known as Laiki Bank), imposing a one-time bank deposit levy on all uninsured deposits there, and seizing possibly around 48% of uninsured deposits in the Bank of Cyprus (the island's largest commer ...
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Credit
Credit (from Latin verb ''credit'', meaning "one believes") is the trust which allows one party to provide money or resources to another party wherein the second party does not reimburse the first party immediately (thereby generating a debt), but promises either to repay or return those resources (or other materials of equal value) at a later date. In other words, credit is a method of making reciprocity formal, legally enforceable, and extensible to a large group of unrelated people. The resources provided may be financial (e.g. granting a loan), or they may consist of goods or services (e.g. consumer credit). Credit encompasses any form of deferred payment. Credit is extended by a creditor, also known as a lender, to a debtor, also known as a borrower. Etymology The term "credit" was first used in English in the 1520s. The term came "from Middle French crédit (15c.) "belief, trust," from Italian credito, from Latin creditum "a loan, thing entrusted to another," from past ...
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Debt Rescheduling
Debt rescheduling is the lengthening of the time of debt repayment by restructuring the terms of an existing loan. Types of resecheduling In retail banking, the debt rescheduling can be applied for personal loans given to individuals as education loan, consumer credit, mortgage loan and loans given for making investment in financial assets such as equity shares, debenture, and bond (finance). In North America and Europe, there are the portals which offers loan rescheduling/restructuring/consolidation via peer-to-peer lending marketplace such as Prosper Marketplace and LendingClub. Approaches; * Reduce payment amounts by extending the payment period and increasing the number of payments. * Pause payments by adding debt moratorium period in a loan term during which the borrower is not required to make any repayment but it increases the amount of the monthly instalments. See also *Loan modification *Loan modification company A loan modification company, also known as a mortg ...
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Economic Productivity
Productivity is the efficiency of production of goods or services expressed by some measure. Measurements of productivity are often expressed as a ratio of an aggregate output to a single input or an aggregate input used in a production process, i.e. output per unit of input, typically over a specific period of time. The most common example is the (aggregate) labour productivity measure, one example of which is GDP per worker. There are many different definitions of productivity (including those that are not defined as ratios of output to input) and the choice among them depends on the purpose of the productivity measurement and/or data availability. The key source of difference between various productivity measures is also usually related (directly or indirectly) to how the outputs and the inputs are aggregated to obtain such a ratio-type measure of productivity. Productivity is a crucial factor in the production performance of firms and nations. Increasing national productivit ...
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Money Supply
In macroeconomics, the money supply (or money stock) refers to the total volume of currency held by the public at a particular point in time. There are several ways to define "money", but standard measures usually include Circulation (currency), currency in circulation (i.e. physical cash) and demand deposits (depositors' easily accessed assets on the books of financial institutions). The central bank of a country may use a definition of what constitutes legal tender for its purposes. Money supply data is recorded and published, usually by a government agency or the central bank of the country. Public sector, Public and private sector analysts monitor changes in the money supply because of the belief that such changes affect the price levels of Security (finance), securities, inflation, the exchange rates, and the business cycle. The relationship between money and prices has historically been associated with the quantity theory of money. There is some empirical evidence of a ...
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Import Ratio
Import ratio, in economics and government finance, is the ratio of total imports of a country to that country’s total foreign exchange (FX) reserves. The ratio can be inverted and is referred to as the reserves to imports ratio. This ratio divides a country's average foreign exchange reserve by a country's average monthly level of imports.http://www.adelaide.edu.au/cies/papers/0302.pdf Exchange Rate Policy and Foreign Exchange Reserves Management in Indonesia in the Context of East Asian Monetary Regionalism Relation to sovereign risk Credit restructuring is made more likely by a higher amount of imports relative to FX reserves. A less developed country will pay for imports with its foreign exchange reserves. The more it imports, the faster these reserves are used up. Since satisfying a country's needs is considered more important than repaying foreign creditors the more a country imports relative to its foreign exchange reserves the greater the probability Probability is ...
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Cyprus
Cyprus ; tr, Kıbrıs (), officially the Republic of Cyprus,, , lit: Republic of Cyprus is an island country located south of the Anatolian Peninsula in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Its continental position is disputed; while it is geographically in Western Asia, its cultural ties and geopolitics are overwhelmingly Southern European. Cyprus is the third-largest and third-most populous island in the Mediterranean. It is located north of Egypt, east of Greece, south of Turkey, and west of Lebanon and Syria. Its capital and largest city is Nicosia. The northeast portion of the island is ''de facto'' governed by the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which was established after the 1974 invasion and which is recognised as a country only by Turkey. The earliest known human activity on the island dates to around the 10th millennium BC. Archaeological remains include the well-preserved ruins from the Hellenistic period such as Salamis and Kourion, and Cypr ...
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Debt Service Ratio
In economics and government finance, a country’s debt service ratio is the ratio of its debt service payments (principal + interest) to its export earnings.Glossary of Statistical TermsDebt service ratio OECD, Sep 25, 2001. A country's international finances are healthier when this ratio is low. For most countries the ratio is between 0 and 20%. In contrast to the debt service coverage ratio, which is calculated as income divided by debt, this ratio is inverse and calculated as debt service divided by country's income from international trade International trade is the exchange of capital, goods, and services across international borders or territories because there is a need or want of goods or services. (see: World economy) In most countries, such trade represents a significant ..., i.e., exports. References {{macroeconomics-stub Macroeconomic indicators Financial ratios ...
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Sovereign Debt
A country's gross government debt (also called public debt, or sovereign debt) is the financial liabilities of the government sector. Changes in government debt over time reflect primarily borrowing due to past government deficits. A deficit occurs when a government's expenditures exceed revenues. Government debt may be owed to domestic residents, as well as to foreign residents. If owed to foreign residents, that quantity is included in the country's external debt. In 2020, the value of government debt worldwide was $87.4 US trillion, or 99% measured as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). Government debt accounted for almost 40% of all debt (which includes corporate and household debt), the highest share since the 1960s. The rise in government debt since 2007 is largely attributable to the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The ability of government to issue debt has been central to state formation and to state building. Public debt ...
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