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Statistical Risk
Statistical risk is a Quantification (science), quantification of a situation's risk using statistical methods. These methods can be used to estimate a probability distribution for the outcome of a specific variable (statistics), variable, or at least one or more key parameters of that distribution, and from that estimated distribution a risk function can be used to obtain a single non-negative number representing a particular conception of the risk of the situation. Statistical risk is taken account of in a variety of contexts including financial risk, finance and economics, and there are many risk functions that can be used depending on the context. One measure of the statistical risk of a continuous variable, such as the return on an investment#In finance), investment, is simply the estimated variance of the variable, or equivalently the square root of the variance, called the standard deviation. Another measure in finance, one which views upside risk as unimportant compared t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Quantification (science)
In mathematics and empirical science, quantification (or quantitation) is the act of counting and measuring that maps human sense observations and experiences into quantity, quantities. Quantification in this sense is fundamental to the scientific method. Natural science Some measure of the undisputed general importance of quantification in the natural sciences can be gleaned from the following comments: * "these are mere facts, but they are quantitative facts and the basis of science." * It seems to be held as universally true that "the foundation of quantification is measurement." * There is little doubt that "quantification provided a basis for the objectivity of science." * In ancient times, "musicians and artists ... rejected quantification, but merchants, by definition, quantified their affairs, in order to survive, made them visible on parchment and paper." * Any reasonable "comparison between Aristotle and Galileo shows clearly that there can be no unique lawfulness discov ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Downside Risk
Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk can be measured either with downside beta or by measuring lower semi-deviation. The statistic ''below-target semi-deviation'' or simply ''target semi-deviation'' (TSV) has become the industry standard. History Downside risk was first modeled by Roy (1952), who assumed that an investor's goal was to minimize his/her risk. This mean-semivariance, or downside risk, model is also known as “safety-first” technique, and only looks at the lower standard deviations of expected returns which are the potential losses. This is about the same time Harry Markowitz was developing mean-variance theory. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Risk Aversion
In economics and finance, risk aversion is the tendency of people to prefer outcomes with low uncertainty to those outcomes with high uncertainty, even if the average outcome of the latter is equal to or higher in monetary value than the more certain outcome. Risk aversion explains the inclination to agree to a situation with a more predictable, but possibly lower payoff, rather than another situation with a highly unpredictable, but possibly higher payoff. For example, a risk-averse investor might choose to put their money into a bank account with a low but guaranteed interest rate, rather than into a stock that may have high expected returns, but also involves a chance of losing value. Example A person is given the choice between two scenarios: one with a guaranteed payoff, and one with a risky payoff with same average value. In the former scenario, the person receives $50. In the uncertain scenario, a coin is flipped to decide whether the person receives $100 or nothing. The ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Risk Assessment
Broadly speaking, a risk assessment is the combined effort of: # identifying and analyzing potential (future) events that may negatively impact individuals, assets, and/or the environment (i.e. hazard analysis); and # making judgments "on the tolerability of the risk on the basis of a risk analysis" while considering influencing factors (i.e. risk evaluation). Put in simpler terms, a risk assessment determines possible mishaps, their likelihood and consequences, and the tolerances for such events. The results of this process may be expressed in a quantitative or qualitative fashion. Risk assessment is an inherent part of a broader risk management strategy to help reduce any potential risk-related consequences. Need Individual risk assessment Risk assessment are done in individual cases, including patient and physician interactions. Individual judgements or assessments of risk may be affected by psychological, ideological, religious or otherwise subjective factors, which impa ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Loss Function
In mathematical optimization and decision theory, a loss function or cost function (sometimes also called an error function) is a function that maps an event or values of one or more variables onto a real number intuitively representing some "cost" associated with the event. An optimization problem seeks to minimize a loss function. An objective function is either a loss function or its opposite (in specific domains, variously called a reward function, a profit function, a utility function, a fitness function, etc.), in which case it is to be maximized. The loss function could include terms from several levels of the hierarchy. In statistics, typically a loss function is used for parameter estimation, and the event in question is some function of the difference between estimated and true values for an instance of data. The concept, as old as Laplace, was reintroduced in statistics by Abraham Wald in the middle of the 20th century. In the context of economics, for example, this i ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Risk Function
In mathematical optimization and decision theory, a loss function or cost function (sometimes also called an error function) is a function that maps an event or values of one or more variables onto a real number intuitively representing some "cost" associated with the event. An optimization problem seeks to minimize a loss function. An objective function is either a loss function or its opposite (in specific domains, variously called a reward function, a profit function, a utility function, a fitness function, etc.), in which case it is to be maximized. The loss function could include terms from several levels of the hierarchy. In statistics, typically a loss function is used for parameter estimation, and the event in question is some function of the difference between estimated and true values for an instance of data. The concept, as old as Laplace, was reintroduced in statistics by Abraham Wald in the middle of the 20th century. In the context of economics, for example, this ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistical Estimation
Estimation theory is a branch of statistics that deals with estimating the values of parameters based on measured empirical data that has a random component. The parameters describe an underlying physical setting in such a way that their value affects the distribution of the measured data. An ''estimator'' attempts to approximate the unknown parameters using the measurements. In estimation theory, two approaches are generally considered: * The probabilistic approach (described in this article) assumes that the measured data is random with probability distribution dependent on the parameters of interest * The set-membership approach assumes that the measured data vector belongs to a set which depends on the parameter vector. Examples For example, it is desired to estimate the proportion of a population of voters who will vote for a particular candidate. That proportion is the parameter sought; the estimate is based on a small random sample of voters. Alternatively, it is ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Partial Ordering
In mathematics, especially order theory, a partially ordered set (also poset) formalizes and generalizes the intuitive concept of an ordering, sequencing, or arrangement of the elements of a set. A poset consists of a set together with a binary relation indicating that, for certain pairs of elements in the set, one of the elements precedes the other in the ordering. The relation itself is called a "partial order." The word ''partial'' in the names "partial order" and "partially ordered set" is used as an indication that not every pair of elements needs to be comparable. That is, there may be pairs of elements for which neither element precedes the other in the poset. Partial orders thus generalize total orders, in which every pair is comparable. Informal definition A partial order defines a notion of comparison. Two elements ''x'' and ''y'' may stand in any of four mutually exclusive relationships to each other: either ''x'' ''y'', or ''x'' and ''y'' are ''incompara ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Density Function
In probability theory, a probability density function (PDF), or density of a continuous random variable, is a function whose value at any given sample (or point) in the sample space (the set of possible values taken by the random variable) can be interpreted as providing a ''relative likelihood'' that the value of the random variable would be close to that sample. Probability density is the probability per unit length, in other words, while the ''absolute likelihood'' for a continuous random variable to take on any particular value is 0 (since there is an infinite set of possible values to begin with), the value of the PDF at two different samples can be used to infer, in any particular draw of the random variable, how much more likely it is that the random variable would be close to one sample compared to the other sample. In a more precise sense, the PDF is used to specify the probability of the random variable falling ''within a particular range of values'', as opposed to ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mean-preserving Spread
In probability and statistics, a mean-preserving spread (MPS) is a change from one probability distribution A to another probability distribution B, where B is formed by spreading out one or more portions of A's probability density function or probability mass function while leaving the mean (the expected value) unchanged. As such, the concept of mean-preserving spreads provides a stochastic ordering of equal-mean gambles (probability distributions) according to their degree of risk; this ordering is partial, meaning that of two equal-mean gambles, it is not necessarily true that either is a mean-preserving spread of the other. Distribution A is said to be a mean-preserving contraction of B if B is a mean-preserving spread of A. Ranking gambles by mean-preserving spreads is a special case of ranking gambles by second-order stochastic dominance – namely, the special case of equal means: If B is a mean-preserving spread of A, then A is second-order stochastically dominant ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability
Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an Event (probability theory), event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates impossibility of the event and 1 indicates certainty."Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics, Volume 1: Distribution Theory", Alan Stuart and Keith Ord, 6th Ed, (2009), .William Feller, ''An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications'', (Vol 1), 3rd Ed, (1968), Wiley, . The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes ("heads" and "tails") are both equally probable; the probability of "heads" equals the probability of "tails"; and since no other outcomes are possible, the probability of either "heads" or "tails" is 1/2 (which could also be written ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Binary Variable
Binary data is data whose unit can take on only two possible states. These are often labelled as 0 and 1 in accordance with the binary numeral system and Boolean algebra. Binary data occurs in many different technical and scientific fields, where it can be called by different names including ''bit'' (binary digit) in computer science, ''truth value'' in mathematical logic and related domains and ''binary variable'' in statistics. Mathematical and combinatoric foundations A discrete variable that can take only one state contains zero information, and is the next natural number after 1. That is why the bit, a variable with only two possible values, is a standard primary unit of information. A collection of bits may have states: see binary number for details. Number of states of a collection of discrete variables depends exponentially on the number of variables, and only as a power law on number of states of each variable. Ten bits have more () states than three decimal digits ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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