Real Exchange-rate Puzzles
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Real Exchange-rate Puzzles
The real exchange-rate puzzles is a common term for two much-discussed anomalies of real exchange rates: that real exchange rates are more '' volatile'' and show more ''persistence'' than what most models can account for. These two anomalies are sometimes referred to as the ''purchasing power parity puzzles''. Dornbusch's (1976) exchange rate overshooting hypothesis argued that exchange rate volatility is essentially driven by monetary shocks interacting with sticky prices. This model can account for real exchange rate volatility, but does not say anything about the volatility of relative to output or the persistence of the real exchange rate movements. Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2002) showed how a model with two countries and where prices were only allowed to change once-a-year had the potential to simultaneously account for the volatility of U.S. output and real exchange rates. These two anomalies are related to, but should not be confused with, the Backus-Smith consumpti ...
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Real Exchange Rate
In finance, an exchange rate is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another currency. Currencies are most commonly national currencies, but may be sub-national as in the case of Hong Kong or supra-national as in the case of the euro. The exchange rate is also regarded as the value of one country's currency in relation to another currency. For example, an interbank exchange rate of 114 Japanese yen to the United States dollar means that ¥114 will be exchanged for or that will be exchanged for ¥114. In this case it is said that the price of a dollar in relation to yen is ¥114, or equivalently that the price of a yen in relation to dollars is $1/114. Each country determines the exchange rate regime that will apply to its currency. For example, a currency may be floating, pegged (fixed), or a hybrid. Governments can impose certain limits and controls on exchange rates. Countries can also have a strong or weak currency. There is no agreement in the econom ...
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Consumption Correlation Puzzle
Consumption may refer to: *Resource consumption *Tuberculosis, an infectious disease, historically * Consumption (ecology), receipt of energy by consuming other organisms * Consumption (economics), the purchasing of newly produced goods for current use also defined as the consuming of products ** Consumption function, an economic formula * Consumption (sociology) of resources, associated with social class, identity, group membership, and age See also * * Consumerism Consumerism is a social and economic order that encourages the acquisition of goods and services in ever-increasing amounts. With the Industrial Revolution, but particularly in the 20th century, mass production led to overproduction—the supp ...
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Economic Puzzles
A puzzle in economics is a situation where the implication of theory is inconsistent with observed economic data. An example is the equity premium puzzle, which relates to the fact that over the last two hundred years, the risk premium of stocks over bonds has been around 5.5%, much larger than expected from theory. The equity premium puzzle was first documented by Mehra and Prescot (1985). List of puzzles :''See also :Economic puzzles; Financial economics #Challenges and criticism.'' *Equity premium puzzle *Home bias in trade puzzle *Equity home bias puzzle *Consumption correlations puzzle Consumption may refer to: *Resource consumption *Tuberculosis, an infectious disease, historically * Consumption (ecology), receipt of energy by consuming other organisms * Consumption (economics), the purchasing of newly produced goods for curren ... * Feldstein-Horioka puzzle * Forward premium anomaly * Real exchange rate puzzles *Retirement-consumption puzzle *Missing trade puzzle, als ...
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Equity Premium Puzzle
The equity premium puzzle refers to the inability of an important class of economic models to explain the average equity risk premium (ERP) provided by a diversified portfolio of U.S. equities over that of U.S. Treasury Bills, which has been observed for more than 100 years. There is significant disparity between returns produced by stocks compared to returns produced by government treasury bills. The equity premium puzzle addresses the difficulty in understanding and explaining this disparity. This disparity is calculated using the equity risk premium: The equity risk premium is equal to the difference between equity returns and returns from government bonds. It is equal to around 5% to 8% in the United States. The risk premium represents the compensation awarded to the equity holder for taking on a higher risk by investing in equities rather than government bonds. However, the 5% to 8% premium is considered to be an implausibly high difference and the equity premium puzzle refe ...
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Forward Premium Anomaly
The forward premium anomaly in currency markets (also referred to as the forward premium puzzle or the Fama puzzle) refers to the well documented empirical finding that the domestic currency appreciates when domestic nominal interest rates exceed foreign interest rates. This is perceived as puzzling in the context of the hypothesis that the expected future change in the exchange rate between two countries is equal to the interest-rate differential between these two countries; this hypothesis suggests that if all currencies are equally risky, investors would demand higher interest rates on currencies expected to ''fall'' in value. See: Forward exchange rate# Unbiasedness hypothesis. Thus, appreciation of the domestic currency when domestic interest rates are greater than foreign interest rates is called an anomaly. References See also *Economic puzzle *Real exchange-rate puzzles *Equity premium puzzle The equity premium puzzle refers to the inability of an important class of ec ...
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Economic Puzzle
A puzzle in economics is a situation where the implication of theory is inconsistent with observed economic data. An example is the equity premium puzzle, which relates to the fact that over the last two hundred years, the risk premium of stocks over bonds has been around 5.5%, much larger than expected from theory. The equity premium puzzle was first documented by Mehra and Prescot (1985). List of puzzles :''See also :Economic puzzles; Financial economics #Challenges and criticism.'' *Equity premium puzzle *Home bias in trade puzzle *Equity home bias puzzle The Home bias puzzle is the term given to describe the fact that individuals and institutions in most countries hold only modest amounts of foreign equity, and tend to strongly favor company stock from their home nation. This finding is regarded as ... * Consumption correlations puzzle * Feldstein-Horioka puzzle * Forward premium anomaly * Real exchange rate puzzles *Retirement-consumption puzzle *Missing trade puzzle, al ...
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Equity Home Bias Puzzle
The Home bias puzzle is the term given to describe the fact that individuals and institutions in most countries hold only modest amounts of foreign equity, and tend to strongly favor company stock from their home nation. This finding is regarded as puzzling, since observed returns on national equity portfolios suggest substantial benefits from international diversification. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff identified this as one of the six major puzzles in international macroeconomics. Overview Home bias in equities is a behavioral finance phenomenon and it was first studied in an academic context by Kenneth French and James M. Poterba (1991) and Tesar and Werner (1995). Coval and Moskowitz (1999) showed that home bias is not limited to international portfolios, but that the preference for investing close to home also applies to portfolios of domestic stocks. Specifically, they showed that U.S. investment managers often exhibit a strong preference for locally headquartered f ...
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Home Bias In Trade Puzzle
The Home bias in trade puzzle is a widely discussed problem in macroeconomics and international finance, first documented by John T. McCallum in an article from 1995. McCallum showed that for the United States and Canada, inter-province trade is 20 times larger than international trade, holding other determinants of trade fixed. Subsequent estimates by John F. Helliwell and others have whittled this bias down to a factor from 6 to 12. This home bias in trade has later been documented among OECD countries. The preferred explanation for this finding has been the presence of formal and informal trade barriers following national borders. Another possible solution to the fact that domestic trade is 20 times larger than international trade could be that domestically traders speak the same language. If presence of formal and informal trade barriers following national borders was the sole reason for this puzzle, home bias should not exist on the subnational level. Wolf (2000) finds, howev ...
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Floating Exchange Rate
In macroeconomics and economic policy, a floating exchange rate (also known as a fluctuating or flexible exchange rate) is a type of exchange rate regime in which a currency's value is allowed to fluctuate in response to foreign exchange market events. A currency that uses a floating exchange rate is known as a ''floating currency'', in contrast to a ''fixed currency'', the value of which is instead specified in terms of material goods, another currency, or a set of currencies (the idea of the last being to reduce currency fluctuations). In the modern world, most of the world's currencies are floating, and include the most widely traded currencies: the United States dollar, the euro, the Swiss franc, the Indian rupee, the pound sterling, the Japanese yen, and the Australian dollar. However, even with floating currencies, central banks often participate in markets to attempt to influence the value of floating exchange rates. The Canadian dollar most closely resembles a pure f ...
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Volatility (finance)
In finance, volatility (usually denoted by ''σ'') is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time, usually measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Volatility terminology Volatility as described here refers to the actual volatility, more specifically: * actual current volatility of a financial instrument for a specified period (for example 30 days or 90 days), based on historical prices over the specified period with the last observation the most recent price. * actual historical volatility which refers to the volatility of a financial instrument over a specified period but with the last observation on a date in the past **near synonymous is realized volatility, the square root of the realized variance, in turn calculated using the sum of squ ...
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Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series On Public Policy
The ''Journal of Monetary Economics'' is a peer-reviewed academic journal covering research on macroeconomics and monetary economics. It is published by Elsevier and was established in October 1973 by Karl Brunner and Charles I. Plosser. Beginning in 2002, it was merged with the ''Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy''. The latter series was established in 1976 and had been published independently, originally by the North-Holland Publishing Company, now an imprint of Elsevier. According to the ''Journal Citation Reports'', the journal has a 2021 impact factor of 4.63. Since 2022, its editors are Boragan Aruoba and Yuriy Gorodnichenko. It is widely regarded as one of the most prestigious academic journals in economics and was ranked as top 10 among all economics journals in 2008. See also * List of economics journals The following is a list of scholarly journals in economics containing most of the prominent academic journals in economics. Popular magazines o ...
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