|
Random Walk Hypothesis
The random walk hypothesis is a financial theory stating that stock market prices evolve according to a random walk (so price changes are random) and thus cannot be predicted. History The concept can be traced to French broker Jules Regnault who published a book in 1863, and then to French mathematician Louis Bachelier whose Ph.D. dissertation titled "The Theory of Speculation" (1900) included some remarkable insights and commentary. The same ideas were later developed by MIT Sloan School of Management professor Paul Cootner in his 1964 book ''The Random Character of Stock Market Prices''. The term was popularized by the 1973 book '' A Random Walk Down Wall Street'' by Burton Malkiel, a professor of economics at Princeton University, and was used earlier in Eugene Fama's 1965 article "Random Walks In Stock Market Prices", which was a less technical version of his Ph.D. thesis. The theory that stock prices move randomly was earlier proposed by Maurice Kendall in his 1953 paper, ''Th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Finance Theory
Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets. It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of financial economics bridges the two). Finance activities take place in financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly divided into personal, corporate, and public finance. In a financial system, assets are bought, sold, or traded as financial instruments, such as currencies, loans, bonds, shares, stocks, options, futures, etc. Assets can also be banked, invested, and insured to maximize value and minimize loss. In practice, risks are always present in any financial action and entities. A broad range of subfields within finance exist due to its wide scope. Asset, money, risk and investment management aim to maximize value and minimize volatility. Financial analysis is viability, stability, and profitability ass ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Surrogate Data Testing
Surrogate data testing (or the ''method of surrogate data'') is a statistical proof by contradiction technique and similar to permutation tests and as a resampling technique related (but different) to parametric bootstrapping. It is used to detect non-linearity in a time series. The technique basically involves specifying a null hypothesis H_0 describing a linear process and then generating several surrogate data sets according to H_0 using Monte Carlo methods. A discriminating statistic is then calculated for the original time series and all the surrogate set. If the value of the statistic is significantly different for the original series than for the surrogate set, the null hypothesis is rejected and non-linearity assumed. The particular surrogate data testing method to be used is directly related to the null hypothesis. Usually this is similar to the following: ''The data is a realization of a stationary linear system, whose output has been possibly measured by a monotonicall ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Fidelity Investments
Fidelity Investments, commonly referred to as Fidelity, earlier as Fidelity Management & Research or FMR, is an American multinational financial services corporation based in Boston, Massachusetts. The company was established in 1946 and is one of the largest asset managers in the world with $4.5 trillion in assets under management, now as of December 2021 their assets under administration amounts to $11.8 trillion. Fidelity Investments operates a brokerage firm, manages a large family of mutual funds, provides fund distribution and investment advice, retirement services, index funds, wealth management, securities execution and clearance, asset custody, and life insurance. History The "Fidelity Fund" became Fidelity Investments under Edward C. Johnson II; incorporated in Massachusetts, May 1, 1930. During the Great Depression, the "Fidelity Fund" was the only fund approved by John C. Hull in his term in office as Securities Director for Massachusetts because of widesprea ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Peter Lynch
Peter Lynch (born January 19, 1944) is an American investor, mutual fund manager, and philanthropist. As the manager of the Magellan Fund at Fidelity Investments between 1977 and 1990, Lynch averaged a 29.2% annual return, consistently more than double the S&P 500 stock market index and making it the best-performing mutual fund in the world.The Intelligent Investor, 2003, Commentary on the Introduction During his 13-year tenure, assets under management increased from US$18 million to $14 billion. A proponent of value investing, Lynch wrote and co-authored a number of books and papers on investing strategies, including ''One Up on Wall Street'', published by Simon & Schuster in 1989, which sold over one million copies. He coined a number of well-known mantras of modern individual investing, such as ''invest in what you know'' and ''ten bagger''. Lynch has been described as a "legend" by the financial media for his performance record. Early life and education Peter Lynch was born ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Adaptive Market Hypothesis
The adaptive market hypothesis, as proposed by Andrew Lo,Lo, 2004. is an attempt to reconcile economic theories based on the efficient market hypothesis (which implies that markets are efficient) with behavioral economics, by applying the principles of evolution to financial interactions: competition, adaptation, and natural selection. Under this approach, the traditional models of modern financial economics can coexist with behavioral models. This suggests that investors are capable of an optimal dynamic allocation. Lo argues that much of what behaviorists cite as counterexamples to economic rationality—loss aversion, overconfidence, overreaction, and other behavioral biases—are consistent with an evolutionary model of individuals adapting to a changing environment using simple heuristics. Even fear and greed, which are viewed as the usual culprits in the failure of rational thinking by the behaviorists, are driven by evolutionary forces. Details According to Lo, the adap ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Princeton University Press
Princeton University Press is an independent publisher with close connections to Princeton University. Its mission is to disseminate scholarship within academia and society at large. The press was founded by Whitney Darrow, with the financial support of Charles Scribner, as a printing press to serve the Princeton community in 1905. Its distinctive building was constructed in 1911 on William Street in Princeton. Its first book was a new 1912 edition of John Witherspoon's ''Lectures on Moral Philosophy.'' History Princeton University Press was founded in 1905 by a recent Princeton graduate, Whitney Darrow, with financial support from another Princetonian, Charles Scribner II. Darrow and Scribner purchased the equipment and assumed the operations of two already existing local publishers, that of the ''Princeton Alumni Weekly'' and the Princeton Press. The new press printed both local newspapers, university documents, ''The Daily Princetonian'', and later added book publishing to it ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Andrew Lo
Andrew Wen-Chuan Lo () (born 1960) is the Charles E. and Susan T. Harris Professor of Finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management. Lo is the author of many academic articles in finance and financial economics. He founded AlphaSimplex Group in 1999 and served as chairman and chief investment strategist until 2018 when he transitioned to his current role as chairman emeritus and senior advisor. Career Lo is a professor of finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management, the director of MIT's Laboratory for Financial Engineering, a principal investigator at MIT's Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, an affiliated faculty of the MIT Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, an external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute, and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He is the founder of AlphaSimplex Group, [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Rate Of Return
In finance, return is a profit on an investment. It comprises any change in value of the investment, and/or cash flows (or securities, or other investments) which the investor receives from that investment, such as interest payments, coupons, cash dividends, stock dividends or the payoff from a derivative or structured product. It may be measured either in absolute terms (e.g., dollars) or as a percentage of the amount invested. The latter is also called the holding period return. A loss instead of a profit is described as a '' negative return'', assuming the amount invested is greater than zero. To compare returns over time periods of different lengths on an equal basis, it is useful to convert each return into a return over a period of time of a standard length. The result of the conversion is called the rate of return. Typically, the period of time is a year, in which case the rate of return is also called the annualized return, and the conversion process, described below ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Independence (probability Theory)
Independence is a fundamental notion in probability theory, as in statistics and the theory of stochastic processes. Two events are independent, statistically independent, or stochastically independent if, informally speaking, the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other or, equivalently, does not affect the odds. Similarly, two random variables are independent if the realization of one does not affect the probability distribution of the other. When dealing with collections of more than two events, two notions of independence need to be distinguished. The events are called pairwise independent if any two events in the collection are independent of each other, while mutual independence (or collective independence) of events means, informally speaking, that each event is independent of any combination of other events in the collection. A similar notion exists for collections of random variables. Mutual independence implies pairwise independence ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Random
In common usage, randomness is the apparent or actual lack of pattern or predictability in events. A random sequence of events, symbols or steps often has no :wikt:order, order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random events are, by definition, unpredictable, but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is predictable.Strictly speaking, the frequency of an outcome will converge almost surely to a predictable value as the number of trials becomes arbitrarily large. Non-convergence or convergence to a different value is possible, but has probability zero. For example, when throwing two dice, the outcome of any particular roll is unpredictable, but a sum of 7 will tend to occur twice as often as 4. In this view, randomness is not haphazardness; it is a measure of uncertainty of an outcome. Randomness applies to concepts of chance, probability, and information entropy. T ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Market Trend
A market trend is a perceived tendency of financial markets to move in a particular direction over time. Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-frames. Traders attempt to identify market trends using technical analysis, a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches support and resistance levels, varying over time. A market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. Market terminology The terms "bull market" and "bear market" describe upward and downward market trends, respectively, and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities. The terms come from London's Exchange Alley in the early 18th century, where traders who engaged in naked short selling were called "bear-skin jobbers" because they sold a bear's skin (the s ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Independent And Identically Distributed Random Variables
In probability theory and statistics, a collection of random variables is independent and identically distributed if each random variable has the same probability distribution as the others and all are mutually independent. This property is usually abbreviated as ''i.i.d.'', ''iid'', or ''IID''. IID was first defined in statistics and finds application in different fields such as data mining and signal processing. Introduction In statistics, we commonly deal with random samples. A random sample can be thought of as a set of objects that are chosen randomly. Or, more formally, it’s “a sequence of independent, identically distributed (IID) random variables”. In other words, the terms ''random sample'' and ''IID'' are basically one and the same. In statistics, we usually say “random sample,” but in probability it’s more common to say “IID.” * Identically Distributed means that there are no overall trends–the distribution doesn’t fluctuate and all items in t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
