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Political Forecasting
Political forecasting aims at forecasting the outcomes of political events. Political events can be a number of events such as diplomatic decisions, actions by political leaders and other areas relating to politicians and political institutions. The area of political forecasting concerning elections is highly popular, especially amongst mass market audiences. Political forecasting methodology makes frequent use of mathematics, statistics and data science. Political forecasting as it pertains to elections is related to psephology. History of Election Forecasting People have long been interested in predicting election outcomes. Quotes of betting odds on papal succession appear as early as 1503, when such wagering was already considered "an old practice." Political betting also has a long history in Great Britain. As one prominent example, Charles James Fox, the late-eighteenth-century Whig statesman, was known as an inveterate gambler. His biographer, George Otto Trevelyan, noted ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered a good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cook Political Report
''The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter'' is an American online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the U.S. Presidency, the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and U.S. governors' offices. Self-described as independent and nonpartisan, it was founded by political analyst Charlie Cook in 1984. Amy Walter is the editor, publisher, and owner. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter was previously a hard-copy publication known as The Cook Political Report. The Report moved to an all-online format in 2004. On July 30, 2021, the publication name changed to "The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter," as Walter took full control of the website and Cook decided to focus on writing and speeches. Reports include Charlie Cook's two weekly columns for ''National Journal'' magazine and ''National Journal Daily''. In addition, changes are generally made each week to The Cook Political Report's House, Senate, and Governors At-A-Glance cha ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Larry Sabato
Larry Joseph Sabato (; born August 7, 1952) is an American political scientist and political analyst. He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, where he is also the founder and director of the Center for Politics, which works to promote civic engagement and participation. The Center for Politics is also responsible for the publication of ''Sabato's Crystal Ball'', an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and electoral projections. He is well known in American political media as a popular pundit, and is interviewed frequently by a variety of sources. Early life and education Sabato grew up in Norfolk, Virginia, graduating from Norfolk Catholic High School in 1970. Four years later, he graduated from the University of Virginia. A 1974 ''Cavalier Daily'' poll showed more people could identify Sabato as student government president than could name Edgar F. Shannon, Jr. as University president. Sabato graduated P ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Electoral Geography
Electoral geography is the analysis of the methods, the behavior, and the results of elections in the context of geographic space and using geographical techniques. Specifically, it is an examination of the dual interaction in which geographical affect the political decisions, and the geographical structure of the election system affects electoral results. The purpose of the analysis is to identify and understand driving factors and the electoral characteristics of territories in a broad and integrative manner. Agnew, John. 1996. “Mapping politics: how context counts in electoral geography”. In Political Geography, Volume 15, Issue 2, pp. 129-146. Elsevier: London, United Kingdom. Elections Elections serve as the central political expression and exercise of power within democratic states,Jones, Martin, Jones, Rhys, and Woods, Michael. 2006. “Democracy, participation and citizenship”. In An Introduction to Political Geography: Space, Place and Politics, Second Edition, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Electoral Calculus
Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site which attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors but excludes local issues. Main features The site was developed by Martin Baxter, who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. From April 2019, the headline prediction covered the Brexit Party and Change UK – The Independent Group. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the 2019 general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. Methodology The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. It takes account of national polls and trends but excludes local issues. The calculations ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
British Polling Council
The British Polling Council (BPC) is an association of market research companies whose opinion polls are regularly published or broadcast in media in the United Kingdom. The BPC was established in 2004, twelve years after the perceived failure of opinion polls to come close to predicting the actual result of the 1992 United Kingdom general election. BPC members use a range of fieldwork methods (telephone, door-to-door, and internet) and statistical tools. Members The following organisations are members of the BPC (founding members in bold): *BMG Research *Bradshaw Advisory *Censuswide *Deltapoll *Electoral Calculus *Focaldata *Forefront Market Research *Hanbury Strategy * Harris Interactive * ICM Research * Ipsos MORI *J.L. Partners * Kantar Public (formerly TNS/System 3) *LucidTalk *Obsurvant *Omnisis * Opinium *ORB International *Panelbase *People Polling *Portland Communications *Public First *Redfield & Wilton Strategies * SavantaComRes *Sky Data *Stack Data Strategy *Surva ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ranked Voting
The term ranked voting (also known as preferential voting or ranked choice voting) refers to any voting system in which voters rank their candidates (or options) in a sequence of first or second (or third, etc.) on their respective ballots. Ranked voting systems differ on the basis of how the ballots are marked, how the preferences are tabulated and counted, how many seats are filled, and whether voters are allowed to rank candidates equally. An electoral system that uses ranked voting uses one of the many available counting methods to select the winning candidate or candidates. There is also variation among ranked voting electoral systems in that in some ranked voting systems, officials require voters to rank a set number of candidates, sometimes all of them; in others, citizens may rank as many candidates as they see fit. Election of single members using ranked votes is often instant-runoff voting. Election of multiple members using ranked votes is usually single transfera ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Prediction Market
Prediction markets (also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives) are open markets where specific outcomes can be predicted using financial incentives. Essentially, they are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A prediction market contract trades between 0 and 100%. The most common form of a prediction market is a binary option market, which will expire at the price of 0 or 100%. Prediction markets can be thought of as belonging to the more general concept of crowdsourcing which is specially designed to aggregate information on particular topics of interest. The main purposes of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs over an unknown future outcome. Traders with different beliefs trade on contracts whose payoffs are related to the unknown future outcome and the market prices of th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Voter Turnout
In political science, voter turnout is the participation rate (often defined as those who cast a ballot) of a given election. This can be the percentage of registered voters, eligible voters, or all voting-age people. According to Stanford University political scientists Adam Bonica and Michael McFaul, there is a consensus among political scientists that "democracies perform better when more people vote." Institutional factors drive the vast majority of differences in turnout rates.Michael McDonald and Samuel Popkin"The Myth of the Vanishing Voter"in American Political Science Review. December 2001. p. 970. For example, simpler parliamentary democracies where voters get shorter ballots, fewer elections, and a multi-party system that makes accountability easier see much higher turnout than the systems of the United States, Japan, and Switzerland. Significance Some parts of society are more likely to vote than others. As turnout approaches 90%, significant differences between vo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ego (Freudian)
The id, ego, and super-ego are a set of three concepts in psychoanalytic theory describing distinct, interacting agents in the psychic apparatus (defined in Sigmund Freud's structural model of the Psyche (psychology), psyche). The three agents are theoretical constructs that describe the activities and interactions of the mental life of a person. In the ego psychology model of the psyche, the id is the set of uncoordinated instinctual desires; the super-ego plays the critical and moralizing role; and the ego is the organized, realistic agent that mediates between the instinctual desires of the id and the critical super-ego; Freud explained that: The functional importance of the ego is manifested in the fact that, normally, control over the approaches to motility devolves upon it. Thus, in its relation to the id, [the ego] is like a man on horseback, who has to hold in check the superior strength of the horse; with this difference, that the rider tries to do so with his own stren ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Revealed Preference
Revealed preference theory, pioneered by economist Paul Anthony Samuelson in 1938, is a method of analyzing choices made by individuals, mostly used for comparing the influence of policies on consumer behavior. Revealed preference models assume that the preferences of consumers can be revealed by their purchasing habits. Revealed preference theory arose because existing theories of consumer demand were based on a diminishing marginal rate of substitution (MRS). This diminishing MRS relied on the assumption that consumers make consumption decisions to maximise their utility. While utility maximisation was not a controversial assumption, the underlying utility functions could not be measured with great certainty. Revealed preference theory was a means to reconcile demand theory by defining utility functions by observing behaviour. Therefore, revealed preference is a way to infer the preferences of individuals given the observed choices. It contrasts with attempts to directly meas ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Superforecaster
A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical methodologies to augment estimates of base rates of events; research finds that such forecasters are typically more accurate than experts in the field who do not use analytical and statistical techniques. The term "superforecaster" is a trademark of Good Judgment Inc. Etymology The term is a combination of the prefix , meaning "above" or "better than average" , and , meaning one who predicts an outcome that might occur in the future. History Origins of the term are attributed to Philip E. Tetlock with results from The Good Judgment Project and subsequent book with Dan Gardner '' Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction''. In December 2019 a Central Intelligence Agency analyst writing under the pseudonym "Bobby W." suggested the Intelligenc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
