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PollyVote
The PollyVote project uses the high-profile application of predicting U.S. presidential election results to demonstrate advances in forecasting research. The project is run by political science professors and forecasting experts, one of which is J. Scott Armstrong. All procedures, data, and results are fully disclosed and freely available online. The project started in March 2004 to demonstrate the benefits of combining forecasts. In averaging forecasts within and across different forecasting methods, the combined PollyVote forecast provided highly accurate predictions of the two-party popular vote shares for the last three U.S. presidential elections. History The PollyVote was created in March 2004 by marketing and forecasting expert J. Scott Armstrong and political science professorAlfred CuzánanRandall Jones The goal at that time was to apply the combination principle in forecasting to predict President Bush's share of the two-party popular vote (omitting minor candidates ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Iowa Electronic Markets
The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) are a group of real-money prediction markets/futures markets operated by the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business. Unlike normal futures markets, the IEM is not-for-profit; the markets are run for educational and research purposes. The IEM allows traders to buy and sell contracts based on, among other things, political election results and economic indicators. Some markets are only available to academic traders. The IEM has often been used to predict the results of political elections with a greater accuracy than traditional polls. Accessed: 10/26/2012 A precursor to the IEM was the Iowa Political Stock Market (I ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Prediction Market
Prediction markets (also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives) are open markets where specific outcomes can be predicted using financial incentives. Essentially, they are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A prediction market contract trades between 0 and 100%. The most common form of a prediction market is a binary option market, which will expire at the price of 0 or 100%. Prediction markets can be thought of as belonging to the more general concept of crowdsourcing which is specially designed to aggregate information on particular topics of interest. The main purposes of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs over an unknown future outcome. Traders with different beliefs trade on contracts whose payoffs are related to the unknown future outcome and the market prices of the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
RealClearPolitics
RealClearPolitics (RCP) is an American political news website and polling data aggregator formed in 2000 by former options trader John McIntyre and former advertising agency account executive Tom Bevan. The site features selected political news stories and op-eds from various news publications in addition to commentary from its own contributors. The site is prominent during election seasons for its aggregation of polling data. In 2008, the site's founders said their goal was to give readers "ideological diversity". According to a 2012 article in the ''Chicago Sun-Times'', competitors and people inside politics have praised the site's balance of stories, although a 2020 article in ''The New York Times'' noted that since the end of 2017, RealClearPolitics has had a rightward, pro-Donald Trump turn in its content. According to a 2020 Knight Foundation study, RealClearPolitics is generally read by a moderate audience, leaning slightly toward the right. Establishment The web ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
FiveThirtyEight
''FiveThirtyEight'', sometimes rendered as ''538'', is an American website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of ''The New York Times'' online and renamed ''FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus''. In July 2013, ESPN acquired ''FiveThirtyEight'', hiring Silver as editor-in-chief and a contributor for ''ESPN.com''; the new publication launched on March 17, 2014. Since then, the ''FiveThirtyEight'' blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company). During the pr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, diplomat, and former lawyer who served as the 67th United States Secretary of State for President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, as a United States senator representing New York from 2001 to 2009, and as First Lady of the United States as the wife of President Bill Clinton from 1993 to 2001. A member of the Democratic Party, she was the party's nominee for president in the 2016 presidential election, becoming the first woman to win a presidential nomination by a major U.S. political party; Clinton won the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College vote, thereby losing the election to Donald Trump. Raised in the Chicago suburb of Park Ridge, Rodham graduated from Wellesley College in 1969 and earned a Juris Doctor degree from Yale Law School in 1973. After serving as a congressional legal counsel, she moved to Arkansas and married future president Bill Clinton in 1975; the tw ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Direct Election
Direct election is a system of choosing political officeholders in which the voters directly cast ballots for the persons or political party that they desire to see elected. The method by which the winner or winners of a direct election are chosen depends upon the electoral system used. The most commonly used systems are the plurality system and the two-round system for single-winner elections, such as a presidential election, and party-list proportional representation for the election of a legislature. By contrast, in an indirect election, the voters elect a body which in turn elects the officeholder in question. In a double direct election, the elected representative serves on two councils, typically a lower-tier municipality and an upper-tier regional district or municipality. Examples Legislatures * The European Parliament has been directly elected every five years since 1979. Member states determine how to elect their representatives, but, among other requirements, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
United States Electoral College
The United States Electoral College is the group of presidential electors required by the Constitution to form every four years for the sole purpose of appointing the president and vice president. Each state and the District of Columbia appoints electors pursuant to the methods described by its legislature, equal in number to its congressional delegation (representatives and senators). Federal office holders, including senators and representatives, cannot be electors. Of the current 538 electors, an absolute majority of 270 or more ''electoral votes'' is required to elect the president and vice president. If no candidate achieves an absolute majority there, a contingent election is held by the United States House of Representatives to elect the president, and by the United States Senate to elect the vice president. The states and the District of Columbia hold a statewide or districtwide popular vote on Election Day in November to choose electors based upon how they have pled ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Foresight (forecasting Journal)
''Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting'' is a forecasting journal published quarterly by the International Institute of Forecasters. ''Foresight'' was launched in 2005 as a practitioner-focused companion to the IIF's ''International Journal of Forecasting''. ''Foresight'' publishes peer-reviewed articles written by academics and business forecasters on topics including design and management of forecasting processes, forecasting models, integrating forecasting into business planning, sales forecasting, prediction markets, reviews of forecasting tools and books, sales and operations planning (S&OP), improving forecasting accuracy, and demand forecasting Demand forecasting is known as the process of making future estimations in relation to customer demand over a specific period. Generally, demand forecasting will consider historical data and other analytical information to produce the most accurat .... All ''Foresight'' back issues and articles are indexed v ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
New Scientist
''New Scientist'' is a magazine covering all aspects of science and technology. Based in London, it publishes weekly English-language editions in the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia. An editorially separate organisation publishes a monthly Dutch-language edition. First published on 22 November 1956, ''New Scientist'' has been available in online form since 1996. Sold in retail outlets (paper edition) and on subscription (paper and/or online), the magazine covers news, features, reviews and commentary on science, technology and their implications. ''New Scientist'' also publishes speculative articles, ranging from the technical to the philosophical. ''New Scientist'' was acquired by Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT) in March 2021. History Ownership The magazine was founded in 1956 by Tom Margerison, Max Raison and Nicholas Harrison as ''The New Scientist'', with Issue 1 on 22 November 1956, priced at one shilling (a twentieth of a pound in pre-decimal UK cu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
International Journal Of Forecasting
The ''International Journal of Forecasting'' is a quarterly peer-reviewed scientific journal on forecasting. It is published by Elsevier on behalf of the International Institute of Forecasters. Its objective is to "unify the field of forecasting and to bridge the gap between theory and practice, making forecasting useful and relevant for decision and policy makers". The journal was established in 1985. According to the ''Journal Citation Reports'', the journal has a 2021 impact factor of 7.022. Editors-in-chief The editors-in-chief of the journal have been: * Pierre Pinson (2019–) * Esther Ruiz (2019) * Rob J. Hyndman (2005–2018) * Jan G. de Gooijer (1998–2004) * Robert Fildes (1988–1998) * J. Scott Armstrong (1988–1989) * Spyros Makridakis Spyros Makridakis (born 22 April 1941) is a professor of thUniversity of NicosiaUNIC where he is the Director of the Institute for the Future (IFF) and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD as well as the University o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Political Science & Politics
Politics (from , ) is the set of activities that are associated with making decisions in groups, or other forms of power relations among individuals, such as the distribution of resources or status. The branch of social science that studies politics and government is referred to as political science. It may be used positively in the context of a "political solution" which is compromising and nonviolent, or descriptively as "the art or science of government", but also often carries a negative connotation.. The concept has been defined in various ways, and different approaches have fundamentally differing views on whether it should be used extensively or limitedly, empirically or normatively, and on whether conflict or co-operation is more essential to it. A variety of methods are deployed in politics, which include promoting one's own political views among people, negotiation with other political subjects, making laws, and exercising internal and external force, including war ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
