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Large-scale Macroeconometric Model
Following the development of Keynesian economics, applied economics began developing forecasting models based on economic data including national income and product accounting data. In contrast with typical textbook models, these large-scale macroeconometric models used large amounts of data and based forecasts on past correlations instead of theoretical relations. These models estimated the relations between different macroeconomic variables using regression analysis on time series data. These models grew to include hundreds or thousands of equations describing the evolution of hundreds or thousands of prices and quantities over time, making computers essential for their solution. While the choice of which variables to include in each equation was partly guided by economic theory (for example, including past income as a determinant of consumption, as suggested by the theory of adaptive expectations), variable inclusion was mostly determined on purely empirical grounds. Large-sca ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Keynesian Economics
Keynesian economics ( ; sometimes Keynesianism, named after British economist John Maynard Keynes) are the various macroeconomic theories and models of how aggregate demand (total spending in the economy) strongly influences economic output and inflation. In the Keynesian view, aggregate demand does not necessarily equal the productive capacity of the economy. Instead, it is influenced by a host of factors – sometimes behaving erratically – affecting production, employment, and inflation. Keynesian economists generally argue that aggregate demand is volatile and unstable and that, consequently, a market economy often experiences inefficient macroeconomic outcomes – a recession, when demand is low, or inflation, when demand is high. Further, they argue that these economic fluctuations can be mitigated by economic policy responses coordinated between government and central bank. In particular, fiscal policy actions (taken by the government) and monetary policy actions (t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Jan Tinbergen
Jan Tinbergen (; ; 12 April 19039 June 1994) was a Dutch economist who was awarded the first Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1969, which he shared with Ragnar Frisch for having developed and applied dynamic models for the analysis of economic processes. He is widely considered to be one of the most influential economists of the 20th century and one of the founding fathers of econometrics.Magnus, Jan & Mary S. Morgan (1987) ''The ET Interview: Professor J. Tinbergen'' in: 'Econometric Theory 3, 1987, 117-142. His important contributions to econometrics include the development of the first macroeconometric models, the solution of the identification problem, and the understanding of dynamic models. Tinbergen was a founding trustee of Economists for Peace and Security. In 1945, he founded the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) and was the agency's first director. Biography Tinbergen was the eldest of five children of Dirk Cornelis Tinbergen and Jeannette van E ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Consensus Forecast
Used in a number of sciences, ranging from econometrics to meteorology, consensus forecasts are predictions of the future that are created by combining together several separate forecasts which have often been created using different methodologies. Also known as ''combining forecasts'', ''forecast averaging'' or ''model averaging'' (in econometrics and statistics) and ''committee machines'', ''ensemble averaging'' or ''expert aggregation'' (in machine learning). Applications can range from forecasting the weather to predicting the annual Gross Domestic Product of a country or the number of cars a company or an individual dealer is likely to sell in a year. While forecasts are often made for future values of a time series, they can also be for one-off events such as the outcome of a presidential election or a football match. Background Forecasting plays a key role in any organisation's planning process as it provides insight into uncertainty. Through simulation, one will be able to ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling (abbreviated as DSGE, or DGE, or sometimes SDGE) is a macroeconomics, macroeconomic method which is often employed by monetary and fiscal authorities for policy analysis, explaining historical time-series data, as well as future forecasting purposes. DSGE econometric modelling applies general equilibrium theory and microfoundations, microeconomic principles in a tractable manner to postulate economic phenomena, such as economic growth and business cycles, as well as economic policy, policy effects and market shocks. Terminology As a practical matter, people often use the term "DSGE models" to refer to a particular class of econometrics, econometric, quantitative models of business cycles or economic growth called real business cycle (RBC) models.Christiano (2018) Considered to be classically quantitative, DSGE models were initially proposed by Kydland & Prescott, and Long & Plosser;Long & Plosser (1983) whereby Charles Plosser describe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Time Series
In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A time series is very frequently plotted via a run chart (which is a temporal line chart). Time series are used in statistics, signal processing, pattern recognition, econometrics, mathematical finance, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, electroencephalography, control engineering, astronomy, communications engineering, and largely in any domain of applied science and engineering which involves temporal measurements. Time series ''analysis'' comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series ''forecasting' ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Macroeconomic Model
A macroeconomic model is an analytical tool designed to describe the operation of the problems of economy of a country or a region. These models are usually designed to examine the comparative statics and dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, and the level of prices. Macroeconomic models may be logical, mathematical, and/or computational; the different types of macroeconomic models serve different purposes and have different advantages and disadvantages. Macroeconomic models may be used to clarify and illustrate basic theoretical principles; they may be used to test, compare, and quantify different macroeconomic theories; they may be used to produce "what if" scenarios (usually to predict the effects of changes in monetary, fiscal, or other macroeconomic policies); and they may be used to generate economic forecasts. Thus, macroeconomic models are widely use ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Nobel Prize In Economics
The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, officially the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel ( sv, Sveriges riksbanks pris i ekonomisk vetenskap till Alfred Nobels minne), is an economics award administered by the Nobel Foundation. Although not one of the five Nobel Prizes which were established by Alfred Nobel's will in 1895, it is commonly referred to as the Nobel Prize in Economics. The winners of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences are chosen in a similar way, are announced along with the Nobel Prize recipients, and the prize is presented at the Nobel Prize Award Ceremony. The award was established in 1968 by an endowment "in perpetuity" from Sweden's central bank, Sveriges Riksbank, to commemorate the bank's 300th anniversary. It is administered and referred to along with the Nobel Prizes by the Nobel Foundation. Laureates in the Memorial Prize in Economics are selected by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Lawrence Klein
Lawrence Robert Klein (September 14, 1920 – October 20, 2013) was an American economist. For his work in creating computer models to forecast economic trends in the field of econometrics in the Department of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, he was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1980 specifically "for the creation of econometric models and their application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies." Due to his efforts, such models have become widespread among economists. Harvard University professor Martin Feldstein told the Wall Street Journal that Klein "was the first to create the statistical models that embodied Keynesian economics," tools still used by the Federal Reserve Bank and other central banks. Life and career Klein was born in Omaha, Nebraska, the son of Blanche (née Monheit) and Leo Byron Klein. He went on to graduate from Los Angeles City College, where he learned calculus; the University of California ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Project LINK
Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, Inc (WEFA Inc) was an economics forecasting and consulting organization founded by Nobel Prize winner Lawrence Klein. WEFA Inc was a spinoff of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, where Klein taught. WEFA Inc traced an interesting path (see below for full details) from its predecessor in 1961 (the Economic Research Unit, discussed below), its initial launch in 1969 (as Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates Inc), to its ultimate merger with DRI (formerly Data Resources Inc.) forming Global Insight in 2001, and subsequent to that, Global Insight's acquisition in 2008 by IHS Inc. Origins Incorporated in 1969 by the Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania as a "not for profit" organization, WEFA Inc was an outgrowth of the Economics Research Unit (ERU) located in the economics department of the University of Pennsylvania. The ERU, a research unit devoted to graduate economics education, was originally sponsored in ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates
Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, Inc (WEFA Inc) was an economics forecasting and consulting organization founded by Nobel Prize winner Lawrence Klein. WEFA Inc was a spinoff of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, where Klein taught. WEFA Inc traced an interesting path (see below for full details) from its predecessor in 1961 (the Economic Research Unit, discussed below), its initial launch in 1969 (as Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates Inc), to its ultimate merger with DRI (formerly Data Resources Inc.) forming Global Insight in 2001, and subsequent to that, Global Insight's acquisition in 2008 by IHS Inc. Origins Incorporated in 1969 by the Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania as a "not for profit" organization, WEFA Inc was an outgrowth of the Economics Research Unit (ERU) located in the economics department of the University of Pennsylvania. The ERU, a research unit devoted to graduate economics education, was originally sponsored in ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
World War II
World War II or the Second World War, often abbreviated as WWII or WW2, was a world war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. It involved the vast majority of the world's countries—including all of the great powers—forming two opposing military alliances: the Allies and the Axis powers. World War II was a total war that directly involved more than 100 million personnel from more than 30 countries. The major participants in the war threw their entire economic, industrial, and scientific capabilities behind the war effort, blurring the distinction between civilian and military resources. Aircraft played a major role in the conflict, enabling the strategic bombing of population centres and deploying the only two nuclear weapons ever used in war. World War II was by far the deadliest conflict in human history; it resulted in 70 to 85 million fatalities, mostly among civilians. Tens of millions died due to genocides (including the Holocaust), starvation, ma ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The United Kingdom includes the island of Great Britain, the north-eastern part of the island of Ireland, and many smaller islands within the British Isles. Northern Ireland shares a land border with the Republic of Ireland; otherwise, the United Kingdom is surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean, the North Sea, the English Channel, the Celtic Sea and the Irish Sea. The total area of the United Kingdom is , with an estimated 2020 population of more than 67 million people. The United Kingdom has evolved from a series of annexations, unions and separations of constituent countries over several hundred years. The Treaty of Union between the Kingdom of England (which included Wales, annexed in 1542) and the Kingdom of Scotland in 170 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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