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January Effect
The January effect is a hypothesis that there is a seasonal anomaly in the financial market where securities' prices increase in the month of January more than in any other month. This calendar effect would create an opportunity for investors to buy stocks for lower prices before January and sell them after their value increases. As with all calendar effects, if true, it would suggest that the market is not efficient, as market efficiency would suggest that this effect should disappear. The effect was first observed around 1942 by investment banker Sidney B. Wachtel. He noted that since 1925 small stocks had outperformed the broader market in the month of January, with most of the disparity occurring before the middle of the month. It has also been noted that when combined with the four-year US presidential cycle, historically the largest January effect occurs in year three of a president's term. The most common theory explaining this phenomenon is that individual investors, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Seasonality
In time series data, seasonality refers to the trends that occur at specific regular intervals less than a year, such as weekly, monthly, or quarterly. Seasonality may be caused by various factors, such as weather, vacation, and holidays and consists of periodic, repetitive, and generally regular and predictable patterns in the levels of a time series. Seasonal fluctuations in a time series can be contrasted with cyclical patterns. The latter occur when the data exhibits rises and falls that are not of a fixed period. Such non-seasonal fluctuations are usually due to economic conditions and are often related to the "business cycle"; their period usually extends beyond a single year, and the fluctuations are usually of at least two years. Organisations facing seasonal variations, such as ice-cream vendors, are often interested in knowing their performance relative to the normal seasonal variation. Seasonal variations in the labour market can be attributed to the entrance of school ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Transaction Cost
In economics, a transaction cost is a cost incurred when making an economic trade when participating in a market. The idea that transactions form the basis of economic thinking was introduced by the institutional economist John R. Commons in 1931. Oliver E. Williamson's ''Transaction Cost Economics'' article, published in 2008, popularized the concept of transaction costs. Douglass C. North argues that institutions, understood as the set of rules in a society, are key in the determination of transaction costs. In this sense, institutions that facilitate low transaction costs can boost economic growth.North, Douglass C. 1992. "Transaction costs, institutions, and economic performance", San Francisco, CA: ICS Press. Alongside production costs, transaction costs are one of the most significant factors in business operation and management. Definition Williamson defines transaction costs as a cost innate in running an economic system of companies, comprising the total costs of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Santa Claus Rally
A Santa Claus rally is a calendar effect that involves a rise in stock prices during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in the following January., According to the 2019 ''Stock Trader's Almanac'', the stock market has risen 1.3% on average during the 7 trading days in question since both 1950 and 1969. Over the 7 trading days in question, stock prices have historically risen 76% of the time, which is far more than the average performance over a 7-day period. However, in the weeks prior to Christmas, stock prices have not gone up more than at other times of the year. In 2024-2025, the S&P 500 completed a reverse Santa Claus rally by selling off during every business day between Christmas and New Year’s, a historic first for the index. The Santa Claus rally was first recorded by Yale Hirsch in his ''Stock Trader's Almanac'' in 1972. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has performed better in years following holiday seasons in which the Santa Claus rally ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sell In May
Sell in May and go away is an investment strategy for stocks based on a theory (sometimes known as the Halloween indicator) that the period from November to April inclusive has significantly stronger stock market growth on average than the other months. In such strategies, stock holdings are sold or minimized at about the start of May and the proceeds held in cash (e.g. a money market fund); stocks are bought again in the autumn, typically around Halloween. "Sell in May" can be characterized as the belief that it is better to avoid holding stock during the summer period. Though this seasonality is often mentioned informally, it has largely been ignored in academic circles. Analysis by Bouman and Jacobsen (2002) shows that the effect has indeed occurred in 36 out of 37 countries examined, and since the 17th century (1694) in the United Kingdom. The effect is strongest in Europe. Causes Data show that stock market returns in many countries during the May–October period are system ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Market Timing
Market timing is the strategy of making buying or selling decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements (market trends). The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis. This is an investment strategy based on the outlook for an aggregate market rather than for a particular financial asset. The efficient-market hypothesis is an assumption that asset prices reflect all available information, meaning that it is theoretically impossible to systematically "beat the market." Approaches Market timing can cause poor performance. After fees, the average "trend follower" does not show skills or abilities compared to benchmarks. "Trend Tracker" reported returns are distorted by survivor bias, selection bias, and fill bias. At the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, YiLi Chien, Senior Economist wrote about return-chasing behavior. The average equity mutual fund ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Limits To Arbitrage
Limits to arbitrage is a theory in financial economics that, due to restrictions that are placed on funds that would ordinarily be used by rational traders to arbitrage away pricing inefficiencies, prices may remain in a non-equilibrium state for protracted periods of time. The efficient-market hypothesis assumes that whenever mispricing of a publicly traded stock occurs, an opportunity for low-risk profit is created for rational traders. The low-risk profit opportunity exists through the tool of arbitrage, which, briefly, is buying and selling differently priced items of the same value, and pocketing the difference. If a stock falls away from its equilibrium price (let us say it becomes undervalued) due to irrational trading ( noise traders), rational investors will (in this case) take a long position while going short a proxy security, or another stock with similar characteristics. Rational traders usually work for professional money management firms, and invest other p ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
July Effect
The July effect, sometimes referred to as the July phenomenon, is a perceived but scientifically unfounded increase in the risk of medical errors and surgical complications that occurs in association with the time of year in which United States medical school graduates begin residencies. A similar period in the United Kingdom is known as the killing season or, more specifically, Black Wednesday, referring to the first Wednesday in August when postgraduate trainees commence their rotations. In reality, this phenomenon has not been proven in the scientific literature. In fact, large-scale meta analysis, which has aggregated over 110 studies on this topic, has shown no evidence of a July effect on mortality, morbidity, or readmission. United States A '' Journal of General Internal Medicine'' study, published in 2010, investigated medical errors from 1979 to 2006 in United States hospitals and found that medication errors increased 10% during the month of July at teaching hospitals, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Financial Market Efficiency
There are several concepts of efficiency for a financial market. The most widely discussed is informational or price efficiency, which is a measure of how quickly and completely the price of a single asset reflects available information about the asset's value. Other concepts include functional/operational efficiency, which is inversely related to the costs that investors bear for making transactions, and allocative efficiency, which is a measure of how far a market channels funds from ultimate lenders to ultimate borrowers in such a way that the funds are used in the most productive manner. Market efficiency types Three common types of market efficiency are allocative, operational and informational. However, other kinds of market efficiency are also recognised. James Tobin identified four efficiency types that could be present in a financial market: 1. Information arbitrage efficiency Asset prices fully reflect all of the privately available information (the least demanding ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Risk Adjusted Return
In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment), often focusing on negative, undesirable consequences. Many different definitions have been proposed. One international standard definition of risk is the "effect of uncertainty on objectives". The understanding of risk, the methods of assessment and management, the descriptions of risk and even the definitions of risk differ in different practice areas (business, economics, environment, finance, information technology, health, insurance, safety, security, privacy, etc). This article provides links to more detailed articles on these areas. The international standard for risk management, ISO 31000, provides principles and general guidelines on managing risks faced by organizations. Definitions of risk Oxford English Dictionary ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Arbitrage
Arbitrage (, ) is the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more marketsstriking a combination of matching deals to capitalize on the difference, the profit being the difference between the market prices at which the unit is traded. Arbitrage has the effect of causing prices of the same or very similar assets in different markets to converge. When used by academics in economics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, it is the possibility of a risk-free profit after transaction costs. For example, an arbitrage opportunity is present when there is the possibility to instantaneously buy something for a low price and sell it for a higher price. In principle and in academic use, an arbitrage is risk-free; in common use, as in statistical arbitrage, it may refer to ''expected'' profit, though losses may occur, and in practic ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Market Anomaly
A market anomaly in a financial market is predictability that seems to be inconsistent with (typically risk-based) theories of asset prices. Standard theories include the capital asset pricing model and the Fama-French Three Factor Model, but a lack of agreement among academics about the proper theory leads many to refer to anomalies without a reference to a benchmark theory (Daniel and Hirschleifer 2015 and Barberis 2018, for example). Indeed, many academics simply refer to anomalies as "return predictors", avoiding the problem of defining a benchmark theory. Academics have documented more than 150 return predictors (see '' List of Anomalies Documented in Academic Journals).'' These "anomalies", however, come with many caveats. Almost all documented anomalies focus on illiquid, small stocks. Moreover, the studies do not account for trading costs. As a result, many anomalies do not offer profits, despite the presence of predictability. Additionally, return predictability decl ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Burton Malkiel
Burton Gordon Malkiel (born August 28, 1932) is an American economist, financial executive, and writer most noted for his classic finance book ''A Random Walk Down Wall Street'' (first published 1973, in its 13th edition as of 2023). Malkiel is the Chemical Bank chairman's professor of economics at Princeton University, and is a two-time chairman of the economics department there. He was a member of the Council of Economic Advisers (1975–1977), president of the American Finance Association (1978), and dean of the Yale School of Management (1981–1988). He also spent 28 years as a director of the Vanguard Group. He is Chief Investment Officer of software-based financial advisor, Wealthfront Inc. and as a member of the Investment Advisory Board for Rebalance. Malkiel was elected to the American Philosophical Society in 2001. He is a leading proponent of the efficient-market hypothesis, which contends that prices of publicly traded assets reflect all publicly available info ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
