Fuzzy Pay-off Method For Real Option Valuation
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Fuzzy Pay-off Method For Real Option Valuation
The fuzzy pay-off method for real option valuation (FPOM or pay-off method) is a method for valuing real options, developed by Mikael Collan, Robert Fullér, and József Mezei; and published in 2009. It is based on the use of fuzzy logic and fuzzy numbers for the creation of the possible pay-off distribution of a project (real option). The structure of the method is similar to the probability theory based Datar–Mathews method for real option valuation, but the method is not based on probability theory and uses fuzzy numbers and possibility theory in framing the real option valuation problem. Method The Fuzzy pay-off method derives the real option value from a pay-off distribution that is created by using three or four cash-flow scenarios (most often created by an expert or a group of experts). The pay-off distribution is created simply by assigning each of the three cash-flow scenarios a corresponding definition with regards to a fuzzy number (triangular fuzzy number for three s ...
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Valuation (finance)
In finance, valuation is the process of determining the value of a (potential) investment, asset, or security. Generally, there are three approaches taken, namely discounted cashflow valuation, relative valuation, and contingent claim valuation. Valuations can be done for assets (for example, investments in marketable securities such as companies' shares and related rights, business enterprises, or intangible assets such as patents, data and trademarks) or for liabilities (e.g., bonds issued by a company). Valuation is a subjective exercise, and in fact, the process of valuation itself can also affect the value of the asset in question. Valuations may be needed for various reasons such as investment analysis, capital budgeting, merger and acquisition transactions, financial reporting, taxable events to determine the proper tax liability. In a business valuation context, various techniques are used to determine the (hypothetical) price that a third party would pay for a ...
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Add-in
In computing, a plug-in (also spelled plugin) or add-in (also addin, add-on, or addon) is a software component that extends the functionality of an existing software system without requiring the system to be re-built. A plug-in feature is one way that a system can be customizable. Applications support plug-ins for a variety of reasons including: * Enable third-party developers to extend an application * Support easily adding new features * Reduce the size of an application by not loading unused features * Separate source code from an application because of incompatible software licenses Examples Examples of plug-in use for various categories of applications: * Digital audio workstations and audio editing software use audio plug-ins to generate, process or analyze sound. Ardour, Audacity, Cubase, FL Studio, Logic Pro X and Pro Tools are examples of such systems. * Email clients use plug-ins to decrypt and encrypt email. Pretty Good Privacy is an example of such plug ...
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Real Options
Real options valuation, also often termed real options analysis,Adam Borison (Stanford University)''Real Options Analysis: Where are the Emperor's Clothes?'' (ROV or ROA) applies option (finance), option Valuation of options, valuation techniques to capital budgeting decisions.Campbell, R. Harvey''Identifying real options'' Duke University, 2002. A real option itself, is the right—but not the obligation—to undertake certain business initiatives, such as deferring, abandoning, expanding, staging, or contracting a Project#Corporate_finance, capital investment project. For example, real options valuation could examine the opportunity to invest in the expansion of a firm's factory and the alternative option to sell the factory.Nijssen, E. (2014)''Entrepreneurial Marketing; an effectual approach. Chapter 2'' Routelegde, 2014. Real options are most valuable when uncertainty is high; management has significant flexibility to change the course of the project in a favorable direction a ...
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Tampere University Of Technology
Tampere University of Technology (TUT) () was Finland's second-largest university in engineering sciences. The university was located in Hervanta, a suburb of Tampere, Finland, Tampere. It was merged with the University of Tampere to create the new Tampere University on 1 January 2019. The university's statutory duty was to pursue research and give the highest education in its field. The research, conducted by some 1,800 staff and faculty members, mostly focused on applied science and often has close ties to many different companies (such as Nokia). Located next to the university campus is a Technology Centre Hermia, including a large Nokia research facility. TUT was one of the only two Finnish universities which operate as foundation. The yearly budget of the university was some 147 million euros. Close to 50% of its budget was external funding. According to Times Higher Education World University Rankings, Times Higher Education, it ranked 11th in the world, and 4th in Europe, ...
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Lappeenranta University Of Technology
Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology LUT (''Finnish language, Finnish'': Lappeenrannan-Lahden teknillinen yliopisto LUT), better known by the abbreviation LUT University (''Finnish language, Finnish'': LUT-yliopisto) is a Finland, Finnish Public university, public research university which was established in 1969. The university's Lappeenranta campus is situated on the shore of lake Saimaa – the 4th largest lake in Europe. LUT University's second campus is in the Finnish city of Lahti. The university also has research units in the Finnish cities of Mikkeli and Kouvola, as well as a regional office in Brussels, Belgium. LUT University is split into two schools of engineering and technology, a school of business and a department of social sciences. The schools focus on renewable and sustainable technologies such as clean water and air, renewable energy, circular economy and the impact of technology on society. There are 1,380 staff members and 7,770 students in the univer ...
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Triangular Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the triangular distribution is a continuous probability distribution with lower limit ''a'', upper limit ''b'', and mode ''c'', where ''a'' < ''b'' and ''a'' ≤ ''c'' ≤ ''b''.


Special cases


Mode at a bound

The distribution simplifies when ''c'' = ''a'' or ''c'' = ''b''. For example, if ''a'' = 0, ''b'' = 1 and ''c'' = 1, then the and CDF become: : \left.\begin f(x) &= 2x \\ ptF(x) &= x^2 \end\right\} \text 0 \le x \le 1 : \begin \operatorname E(X) ...
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Research And Development
Research and development (R&D or R+D), known in some countries as OKB, experiment and design, is the set of innovative activities undertaken by corporations or governments in developing new services or products. R&D constitutes the first stage of development of a potential new service or the production process. Although R&D activities may differ across businesses, the primary goal of an R&D department is to new product development, develop new products and services. R&D differs from the vast majority of corporate activities in that it is not intended to yield immediate profit, and generally carries greater risk and an uncertain return on investment. R&D is crucial for acquiring larger shares of the market through new products. ''R&D&I'' represents R&D with innovation. Background New product design and development is often a crucial factor in the survival of a company. In a global industrial landscape that is changing fast, firms must continually revise their design and range of ...
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Compound Option
A compound option or split-fee option is an option on an option. The exercise payoff of a compound option involves the value of another option. A compound option then has two expiration dates and two strike prices. Usually, compounded options are used for currency or fixed income Fixed income refers to any type of investment under which the borrower or issuer is obliged to make payments of a fixed amount on a fixed schedule. For example, the borrower may have to pay interest at a fixed rate once a year and repay the pr ... markets where insecurity exists regarding the option's risk protection. Another common business application that compound options are used for is to hedge bids for business projects that may or may not be accepted. For related discussion on multi-stage real options and graphical representation see Datar–Mathews method for real option valuation. Variants Compound options provide their owners with the right to buy or sell another option. These options cre ...
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Spreadsheet
A spreadsheet is a computer application for computation, organization, analysis and storage of data in tabular form. Spreadsheets were developed as computerized analogs of paper accounting worksheets. The program operates on data entered in cells of a table. Each cell may contain either numeric or text data, or the results of formulas that automatically calculate and display a value based on the contents of other cells. The term ''spreadsheet'' may also refer to one such electronic document. Spreadsheet users can adjust any stored value and observe the effects on calculated values. This makes the spreadsheet useful for "what-if" analysis since many cases can be rapidly investigated without manual recalculation. Modern spreadsheet software can have multiple interacting sheets and can display data either as text and numerals or in graphical form. Besides performing basic arithmetic and mathematical functions, modern spreadsheets provide built-in functions for common financial ...
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Real Options
Real options valuation, also often termed real options analysis,Adam Borison (Stanford University)''Real Options Analysis: Where are the Emperor's Clothes?'' (ROV or ROA) applies option (finance), option Valuation of options, valuation techniques to capital budgeting decisions.Campbell, R. Harvey''Identifying real options'' Duke University, 2002. A real option itself, is the right—but not the obligation—to undertake certain business initiatives, such as deferring, abandoning, expanding, staging, or contracting a Project#Corporate_finance, capital investment project. For example, real options valuation could examine the opportunity to invest in the expansion of a firm's factory and the alternative option to sell the factory.Nijssen, E. (2014)''Entrepreneurial Marketing; an effectual approach. Chapter 2'' Routelegde, 2014. Real options are most valuable when uncertainty is high; management has significant flexibility to change the course of the project in a favorable direction a ...
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Mean Value
A mean is a quantity representing the "center" of a collection of numbers and is intermediate to the extreme values of the set of numbers. There are several kinds of means (or "measures of central tendency") in mathematics, especially in statistics. Each attempts to summarize or typify a given group of data, illustrating the magnitude and sign of the data set. Which of these measures is most illuminating depends on what is being measured, and on context and purpose. The '' arithmetic mean'', also known as "arithmetic average", is the sum of the values divided by the number of values. The arithmetic mean of a set of numbers ''x''1, ''x''2, ..., x''n'' is typically denoted using an overhead bar, \bar. If the numbers are from observing a sample of a larger group, the arithmetic mean is termed the '' sample mean'' (\bar) to distinguish it from the group mean (or expected value) of the underlying distribution, denoted \mu or \mu_x. Outside probability and statistics, a wide ra ...
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Net Present Value
The net present value (NPV) or net present worth (NPW) is a way of measuring the value of an asset that has cashflow by adding up the present value of all the future cash flows that asset will generate. The present value of a cash flow depends on the interval of time between now and the cash flow because of the Time value of money (which includes the annual effective discount rate). It provides a method for evaluating and comparing capital projects or financial products with cash flows spread over time, as in loans, investments, payouts from insurance contracts plus many other applications. Time value of money dictates that time affects the value of cash flows. For example, a lender may offer 99 cents for the promise of receiving $1.00 a month from now, but the promise to receive that same dollar 20 years in the future would be worth much less today to that same person (lender), even if the payback in both cases was equally certain. This decrease in the current value of future c ...
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