Fuzzy Pay-off Method For Real Option Valuation
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Fuzzy Pay-off Method For Real Option Valuation
The fuzzy pay-off method for real option valuation (FPOM or pay-off method) is a method for valuing real options, developed by Mikael Collan, Robert Fullér, and József Mezei; and published in 2009. It is based on the use of fuzzy logic and fuzzy numbers for the creation of the possible pay-off distribution of a project (real option). The structure of the method is similar to the probability theory based Datar–Mathews method for real option valuation, but the method is not based on probability theory and uses fuzzy numbers and possibility theory in framing the real option valuation problem. Method The Fuzzy pay-off method derives the real option value from a pay-off distribution that is created by using three or four cash-flow scenarios (most often created by an expert or a group of experts). The pay-off distribution is created simply by assigning each of the three cash-flow scenarios a corresponding definition with regards to a fuzzy number (triangular fuzzy number for three sc ...
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Valuation (finance)
In finance, valuation is the process of determining the present value (PV) of an asset. In a business context, it is often the hypothetical price that a third party would pay for a given asset. Valuations can be done on assets (for example, investments in marketable securities such as companies' shares and related rights, business enterprises, or intangible assets such as patents, data and trademarks) or on liabilities (e.g., bonds issued by a company). Valuations are needed for many reasons such as investment analysis, capital budgeting, merger and acquisition transactions, financial reporting, taxable events to determine the proper tax liability. Valuation overview Common terms for the value of an asset or liability are market value, fair value, and Intrinsic value (finance), intrinsic value. The meanings of these terms differ. For instance, when an analyst believes a stock's intrinsic value is greater (or less) than its market price, an analyst makes a "buy" (or "sell") reco ...
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Add-in
In computing, a plug-in (or plugin, add-in, addin, add-on, or addon) is a software component that adds a specific feature to an existing computer program. When a program supports plug-ins, it enables customization. A theme or skin is a preset package containing additional or changed graphical appearance details, achieved by the use of a graphical user interface (GUI) that can be applied to specific software and websites to suit the purpose, topic, or tastes of different users to customize the look and feel of a piece of computer software or an operating system front-end GUI (and window managers). Purpose and examples Applications may support plug-ins to: * enable third-party developers to extend an application * support easily adding new features * reduce the size of an application by not loading unused features * separate source code from an application because of incompatible software licenses. Types of applications and why they use plug-ins: * Digital audio workstations an ...
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Real Options
Real options valuation, also often termed real options analysis,Adam Borison (Stanford University)''Real Options Analysis: Where are the Emperor's Clothes?'' (ROV or ROA) applies option valuation techniques to capital budgeting decisions.Campbell, R. Harvey''Identifying real options'' Duke University, 2002. A real option itself, is the right—but not the obligation—to undertake certain business initiatives, such as deferring, abandoning, expanding, staging, or contracting a capital investment project. For example, real options valuation could examine the opportunity to invest in the expansion of a firm's factory and the alternative option to sell the factory.Nijssen, E. (2014) Routelegde, 2014. Real options are generally distinguished from conventional financial options in that they are not typically traded as securities, and do not usually involve decisions on an underlying asset that is traded as a financial security. A further distinction is that option holders here, i.e. ...
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Tampere University Of Technology
Tampere University of Technology (TUT) ( fi, Tampereen teknillinen yliopisto (TTY)) was Finland's second-largest university in engineering sciences. The university was located in Hervanta, a suburb of Tampere. It was merged with the University of Tampere to create the new Tampere University on 1 January 2019. The university's statutory duty was to pursue research and give the highest education in its field. The research, conducted by some 1,800 staff and faculty members, mostly focused on applied science and often has close ties to many different companies (such as Nokia). Located next to the university campus is a Technology Centre Hermia, including a large Nokia research facility. TUT was one of the only two Finnish universities which operate as foundation. The yearly budget of the university was some 147 million euros. Close to 50% of its budget was external funding. According to Times Higher Education, it ranked 11th in the world, and 4th in Europe, for industry collaboratio ...
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Lappeenranta University Of Technology
LUT University ('' English:'' Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology LUT) (''Finnish'': Lappeenrannan-Lahden Teknillinen Yliopisto LUT) is a Finnish public research university which was established in 1969. The university's Lappeenranta campus is situated on the shore of lake Saimaa – the 4th largest lake in Europe. LUT University's second campus is in Finnish city of Lahti. LUT University also has research units in the Finnish cities of Mikkeli and Kouvola. LUT University is a University of Technology, meaning that is specializes its academics and research on the fields of engineering and technology. The university also has a school of business, and beginning in 2023 the university is starting a department of social sciences. LUT University specializes in renewable technology, clean water and energy, combatting climate change and finding sustainable engineering solutions. There are 1,089 staff members and 6,331 students in the university. About 5,000 students reside in th ...
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Triangular Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the triangular distribution is a continuous probability distribution with lower limit ''a'', upper limit ''b'' and mode ''c'', where ''a'' < ''b'' and ''a'' ≤ ''c'' ≤ ''b''.


Special cases


Mode at a bound

The distribution simplifies when ''c'' = ''a'' or ''c'' = ''b''. For example, if ''a'' = 0, ''b'' = 1 and ''c'' = 1, then the and CDF become: : \left.\begin f(x) &= 2x \\ ptF(x) &= x^2 \end\right\} \text 0 \le x \le 1 : \begin \operatorname E(X) & = \f ...
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Research And Development
Research and development (R&D or R+D), known in Europe as research and technological development (RTD), is the set of innovative activities undertaken by corporations or governments in developing new services or products, and improving existing ones. Research and development constitutes the first stage of development of a potential new service or the production process. R&D activities differ from institution to institution, with two primary models of an R&D department either staffed by engineers and tasked with directly developing new products, or staffed with industrial scientists and tasked with applied research in scientific or technological fields, which may facilitate future product development. R&D differs from the vast majority of corporate activities in that it is not intended to yield immediate profit, and generally carries greater risk and an uncertain return on investment. However R&D is crucial for acquiring larger shares of the market through the marketisation ...
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Compound Option
A compound option or split-fee option is an option on an option. The exercise payoff of a compound option involves the value of another option. A compound option then has two expiration dates and two strike prices. Usually, compounded options are used for currency or fixed income Fixed income refers to any type of investment under which the borrower or issuer is obliged to make payments of a fixed amount on a fixed schedule. For example, the borrower may have to pay interest at a fixed rate once a year and repay the prin ... markets where insecurity exists regarding the option's risk protection. Another common business application that compound options are used for is to hedge bids for business projects that may or may not be accepted. Variants Compound options provide their owners with the right to buy or sell another option. These options create positions with greater leverage than do traditional options. There are four basic types of compound options: * Call on Call (CoC) * ...
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Spreadsheet
A spreadsheet is a computer application for computation, organization, analysis and storage of data in tabular form. Spreadsheets were developed as computerized analogs of paper accounting worksheets. The program operates on data entered in cells of a table. Each cell may contain either numeric or text data, or the results of formulas that automatically calculate and display a value based on the contents of other cells. The term ''spreadsheet'' may also refer to one such electronic document. Spreadsheet users can adjust any stored value and observe the effects on calculated values. This makes the spreadsheet useful for "what-if" analysis since many cases can be rapidly investigated without manual recalculation. Modern spreadsheet software can have multiple interacting sheets and can display data either as text and numerals or in graphical form. Besides performing basic arithmetic and mathematical functions, modern spreadsheets provide built-in functions for common financial a ...
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Real Options
Real options valuation, also often termed real options analysis,Adam Borison (Stanford University)''Real Options Analysis: Where are the Emperor's Clothes?'' (ROV or ROA) applies option valuation techniques to capital budgeting decisions.Campbell, R. Harvey''Identifying real options'' Duke University, 2002. A real option itself, is the right—but not the obligation—to undertake certain business initiatives, such as deferring, abandoning, expanding, staging, or contracting a capital investment project. For example, real options valuation could examine the opportunity to invest in the expansion of a firm's factory and the alternative option to sell the factory.Nijssen, E. (2014) Routelegde, 2014. Real options are generally distinguished from conventional financial options in that they are not typically traded as securities, and do not usually involve decisions on an underlying asset that is traded as a financial security. A further distinction is that option holders here, i.e. ...
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Mean Value
There are several kinds of mean in mathematics, especially in statistics. Each mean serves to summarize a given group of data, often to better understand the overall value (magnitude and sign) of a given data set. For a data set, the ''arithmetic mean'', also known as "arithmetic average", is a measure of central tendency of a finite set of numbers: specifically, the sum of the values divided by the number of values. The arithmetic mean of a set of numbers ''x''1, ''x''2, ..., x''n'' is typically denoted using an overhead bar, \bar. If the data set were based on a series of observations obtained by sampling from a statistical population, the arithmetic mean is the ''sample mean'' (\bar) to distinguish it from the mean, or expected value, of the underlying distribution, the ''population mean'' (denoted \mu or \mu_x).Underhill, L.G.; Bradfield d. (1998) ''Introstat'', Juta and Company Ltd.p. 181/ref> Outside probability and statistics, a wide range of other notions of mean are o ...
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Net Present Value
The net present value (NPV) or net present worth (NPW) applies to a series of cash flows occurring at different times. The present value of a cash flow depends on the interval of time between now and the cash flow. It also depends on the discount rate. NPV accounts for the time value of money. It provides a method for evaluating and comparing capital projects or financial products with cash flows spread over time, as in loans, investments, payouts from insurance contracts plus many other applications. Time value of money dictates that time affects the value of cash flows. For example, a lender may offer 99 cents for the promise of receiving $1.00 a month from now, but the promise to receive that same dollar 20 years in the future would be worth much less today to that same person (lender), even if the payback in both cases was equally certain. This decrease in the current value of future cash flows is based on a chosen rate of return (or discount rate). If for example there exists ...
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