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Election Verification Exit Poll
An election verification exit poll (EVEP) is a relatively new concept in polling, intended to improve the accuracy of exit polls to such an extent that they can be used to verify election results. Traditional (media) exit polling relies on small samples, wheres EVEPs propose to use larger samples. Motivation A USAID document (written for US workers observing foreign elections) concludes that parallel vote tabulation "is the preferred tool for verifying election results where the context and local capacity permit. Exit polls can collect important data for understanding voter intent, providing insight into political and social dynamics ..However, they provide limited hard evidence of manipulation." In the United States, exit polling is not accurate enough to be used as tool for verification of actual election results. Discrepancies are usually attributed to sampling bias in the exit polls. Exit polling can however be used to question official results. For example, in the 2000 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Accuracy
Accuracy and precision are two measures of ''observational error''. ''Accuracy'' is how close a given set of measurements (observations or readings) are to their ''true value'', while ''precision'' is how close the measurements are to each other. In other words, ''precision'' is a description of ''random errors'', a measure of statistical variability. ''Accuracy'' has two definitions: # More commonly, it is a description of only '' systematic errors'', a measure of statistical bias of a given measure of central tendency; low accuracy causes a difference between a result and a true value; ISO calls this ''trueness''. # Alternatively, ISO defines accuracy as describing a combination of both types of observational error (random and systematic), so high accuracy requires both high precision and high trueness. In the first, more common definition of "accuracy" above, the concept is independent of "precision", so a particular set of data can be said to be accurate, precise, both, or n ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Exit Poll
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take hours to count. History There are different views on who invented the exit poll. Marcel van Dam, Dutch sociologist and former politician, says he was the inventor, by being the first to implement one during the Dutch legislative elections on February 15, 1967. Other sources say Warren Mitofsky, an American pollster, was the first. For CBS News, he devised an exit poll in the Kentucky gubernatorial election in November that same year. Not withstanding this, the mention of the first exit polls date back to the 1940s when such a poll was held in Denver, Colorado. Purpose Exit polls ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Verification And Validation
Verification and validation (also abbreviated as V&V) are independent procedures that are used together for checking that a product, service, or system meets requirements and specifications and that it fulfills its intended purpose. These are critical components of a quality management system such as ISO 9000. The words "verification" and "validation" are sometimes preceded with "independent", indicating that the verification and validation is to be performed by a disinterested third party. "Independent verification and validation" can be abbreviated as "IV&V". In practice, as quality management terms, the definitions of verification and validation can be inconsistent. Sometimes they are even used interchangeably. However, the PMBOK guide, a standard adopted by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), defines them as follows in its 4th edition: * "Validation. The assurance that a product, service, or system meets the needs of the customer and other iden ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
USAID
The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is an independent agency of the U.S. federal government that is primarily responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and development assistance. With a budget of over $27 billion, USAID is one of the largest official aid agencies in the world and accounts for more than half of all U.S. foreign assistance—the highest in the world in absolute dollar terms. Congress passed the Foreign Assistance Act on September 4, 1961, which reorganized U.S. foreign assistance programs and mandated the creation of an agency to administer economic aid. USAID was subsequently established by the executive order of President John F. Kennedy, who sought to unite several existing foreign assistance organizations and programs under one agency. USAID became the first U.S. foreign assistance organization whose primary focus was long-term socioeconomic development. USAID's programs are authorized by Congress in the Foreign Assistanc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Parallel Vote Tabulation
Quick count is a method for verification of election results by projecting them from a sample of the polling stations. The similar Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) is an election observation methodology that is typically based on a representative random sample of polling stations and is employed for independent verification (or challenge) of election results. A PVT involves observation of the administration of the election, the process of voting and of counting of ballots at the polling stations, collection of official polling station results and independent tabulation of these results, parallel to election authorities. Origin Organizers from the Philippine National Citizen Movement for Free Elections ( NAMFREL) are widely recognized as the pioneers of the quick count, or parallel vote tabulation (PVT) for emerging democracies. During a 1986 Presidential election, NAMFREL attempted to mirror the official count of all 90,000 polling stations. They performed a remarkable task in coll ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sampling Bias
In statistics, sampling bias is a bias in which a sample is collected in such a way that some members of the intended population have a lower or higher sampling probability than others. It results in a biased sample of a population (or non-human factors) in which all individuals, or instances, were not equally likely to have been selected. If this is not accounted for, results can be erroneously attributed to the phenomenon under study rather than to the method of sampling. Medical sources sometimes refer to sampling bias as ascertainment bias. Ascertainment bias has basically the same definition, but is still sometimes classified as a separate type of bias. Distinction from selection bias Sampling bias is usually classified as a subtype of selection bias, sometimes specifically termed sample selection bias, but some classify it as a separate type of bias. A distinction, albeit not universally accepted, of sampling bias is that it undermines the external validity of a test (the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Yugoslavia
Yugoslavia (; sh-Latn-Cyrl, separator=" / ", Jugoslavija, Југославија ; sl, Jugoslavija ; mk, Југославија ;; rup, Iugoslavia; hu, Jugoszlávia; rue, label=Pannonian Rusyn, Югославия, translit=Juhoslavija; sk, Juhoslávia; ro, Iugoslavia; cs, Jugoslávie; it, Iugoslavia; tr, Yugoslavya; bg, Югославия, Yugoslaviya ) was a country in Southeast Europe and Central Europe for most of the 20th century. It came into existence after World War I in 1918 under the name of the ''Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes'' by the merger of the provisional State of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs (which was formed from territories of the former Austria-Hungary) with the Kingdom of Serbia, and constituted the first union of the South Slavic people as a sovereign state, following centuries in which the region had been part of the Ottoman Empire and Austria-Hungary. Peter I of Serbia was its first sovereign. The kingdom gained international recog ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Slobodan Milošević
Slobodan Milošević (, ; 20 August 1941 – 11 March 2006) was a Yugoslav and Serbian politician who was the president of Serbia within Yugoslavia from 1989 to 1997 (originally the Socialist Republic of Serbia, a constituent republic of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, from 1989 to 1992) and president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia from 1997 to 2000. Formerly a high-ranking member of the League of Communists of Serbia (SKS) during the 1980s, he led the Socialist Party of Serbia from its foundation in 1990 until 2003. Born in Požarevac, he studied law at the University of Belgrade Faculty of Law and joined the League of Socialist Youth of Yugoslavia as a student. During the 1960s he served as an advisor to mayor of Belgrade Branko Pešić, and was later appointed chairman of Tehnogas and Beobanka, roles which he served until the 1980s. Milošević rose to power in 1987 by promoting populist and nationalist views, arguing for the reduction of power of S ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Vojislav Koštunica
Vojislav Koštunica ( sr-cyrl, Војислав Коштуница, ; born 24 March 1944) is a Serbian former politician who served as the last president of FR Yugoslavia from 2000 to 2003 and as the prime minister of Serbia from 2004 to 2008. Koštunica won the 2000 Yugoslav presidential election as a candidate of a broad alliance Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS), which led to overthrow of Slobodan Milošević and the withdrawal of international sanctions against Yugoslavia. He strictly opposed cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and his party left the coalition government in protest at the decision to extradite Slobodan Milošević to the ICTY. After the 2003 Serbian parliamentary election, the first elections after the dissolution of DOS and assassination of Prime Minister Zoran Đinđić, Koštunica formed a minority government with the support of the Milošević's Socialist Party of Serbia and became the head of gove ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
2000 United States Presidential Election Recount In Florida
The 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida was a period of vote recounting in Florida that occurred during the weeks after Election Day in the 2000 United States presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore. The Florida vote was ultimately settled in Bush's favor by a margin of 537 votes when the U.S. Supreme Court, in ''Bush v. Gore'', stopped a recount that had been initiated upon a ruling by the Florida Supreme Court. Bush's win in Florida gave him a majority of votes in the Electoral College and victory in the presidential election. Background The controversy began on election night, November 7, 2000, when the national television networks, using information provided to them by the Voter News Service, an organization formed by the Associated Press to help determine the outcome of the election through early result tallies and exit polling, first called Florida for Gore in the hour after polls closed in the peninsula (in the Eastern time ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Electronic Voting Machine
An electronic voting machine is a voting machine based on electronics. Two main technologies exist: '' optical scanning'' and '' direct recording'' (DRE). Optical scanning In an optical scan voting system, or marksense, each voter's choices are marked on one or more pieces of paper, which then go through a scanner. The scanner creates an electronic image of each ballot, interprets it, creates a tally for each candidate, and usually stores the image for later review. The voter may mark the paper directly, usually in a specific location for each candidate. Or the voter may select choices on an electronic screen, which then prints the chosen names, and a bar code or QR code summarizing all choices, on a sheet of paper to put in the scanner. Hundreds of errors in optical scan systems have been found, from feeding ballots upside down, multiple ballots pulled through at once in central counts, paper jams, broken, blocked or overheated sensors which misinterpret some or many ball ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Error Margin
The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in the results of a survey. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one should have that a poll result would reflect the result of a census of the entire population. The margin of error will be positive whenever a population is incompletely sampled and the outcome measure has positive variance, which is to say, the measure ''varies''. The term ''margin of error'' is often used in non-survey contexts to indicate observational error in reporting measured quantities. Concept Consider a simple ''yes/no'' poll P as a sample of n respondents drawn from a population N \text(n \ll N) reporting the percentage p of ''yes'' responses. We would like to know how close p is to the true result of a survey of the entire population N, without having to conduct one. If, hypothetically, we were to conduct poll P over subsequent samples of n respondents (newly drawn from N), we would expect those ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
