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Environmental Modeling Center
The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is a United States Government agency, which improves numerical weather, marine and climate predictions at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), through a broad program of research in data assimilation and modeling. In support of the NCEP operational forecasting mission, the EMC develops, improves and monitors data assimilation systems and models of the atmosphere, ocean and coupled system, using advanced methods developed internally as well as cooperatively with scientists from universities, NOAA laboratories and other government agencies, and the international scientific community. History In July 1954, the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit (JNWPU) was created to test out numerical weather prediction techniques by computer. Operational numerical weather prediction in the United States began in 1955 under the JNWPU. This unit co-located with the Weather Bureau-Air Force-Navy (WBAN) analysis center to form the ...
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Federal Government Of The United States
The federal government of the United States (U.S. federal government or U.S. government) is the national government of the United States, a federal republic located primarily in North America, composed of 50 states, a city within a federal district (the city of Washington in the District of Columbia, where most of the federal government is based), five major self-governing territories and several island possessions. The federal government, sometimes simply referred to as Washington, is composed of three distinct branches: legislative, executive, and judicial, whose powers are vested by the U.S. Constitution in the Congress, the president and the federal courts, respectively. The powers and duties of these branches are further defined by acts of Congress, including the creation of executive departments and courts inferior to the Supreme Court. Naming The full name of the republic is "United States of America". No other name appears in the Constitution, and this i ...
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Global Forecast System
The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS). Operation The mathematical model is run four times a day, and produces forecasts for up to 16 days in advance, but with decreased spatial resolution after 10 days. The forecast skill generally decreases with time (as with any numerical weather prediction model) and for longer term forecasts, only the larger scales retain significant accuracy. It is one of the predominant synoptic scale medium-range models in general use. Principles The GFS model is a FV3 model with an approximate horizontal resolution of 13 km for the days 0-16 days. In the vertical, the model is divided into 127 layers and extends to the mesopause (roughly ~80 km), and temporally, it produces forecast output every hour for the first 120 hours, three hourly through day 10 and 12 hourly through day 16. The outp ...
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Weather Prediction Center
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC), located in College Park, Maryland, is one of nine service centers under the umbrella of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a part of the National Weather Service (NWS), which in turn is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the U.S. Government. Until March 5, 2013 the Weather Prediction Center was known as the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). The Weather Prediction Center serves as a center for quantitative precipitation forecasting, medium range forecasting (three to eight days), and the interpretation of numerical weather prediction computer models. The Weather Prediction Center issues storm summaries on storm systems bringing significant rainfall and snowfall to portions of the United States. They also forecast precipitation amounts for the lower 48 United States for systems expected to impact the country over the next seven days. Advisories are also issued for tropical cyclo ...
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Tropical Cyclone Forecast Model
A tropical cyclone forecast model is a computer program that uses meteorological data to forecast aspects of the future state of tropical cyclones. There are three types of models: statistical, dynamical, or combined statistical-dynamic. Dynamical models utilize powerful supercomputers with sophisticated mathematical modeling software and meteorological data to calculate future weather conditions. Statistical models forecast the evolution of a tropical cyclone in a simpler manner, by extrapolating from historical datasets, and thus can be run quickly on platforms such as personal computers. Statistical-dynamical models use aspects of both types of forecasting. Four primary types of forecasts exist for tropical cyclones: track, intensity, storm surge, and rainfall. Dynamical models were not developed until the 1970s and the 1980s, with earlier efforts focused on the storm surge problem. Track models did not show forecast skill when compared to statistical models until th ...
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Storm Prediction Center
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is a US government agency A government or state agency, sometimes an appointed commission, is a permanent or semi-permanent organization in the machinery of government that is responsible for the oversight and administration of specific functions, such as an administrati ... that is part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), operating under the control of the National Weather Service (NWS), which in turn is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States Department of Commerce (DoC). Headquartered at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, the Storm Prediction Center is tasked with forecasting the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the contiguous United States. It issues #Convective outlooks, convective outlooks, #Mesoscale discussions, mesoscale discussions, and #Weather watches, watches as a part of this process. Convective outlooks are issu ...
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Space Weather Prediction Center
The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), named the Space Environment Center (SEC) until 2007, is a laboratory and service center of the US National Weather Service (NWS), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), located in Boulder, Colorado. SWPC continually monitors and forecasts Earth's space environment, providing solar-terrestrial information. SWPC is the official source of space weather alerts and warnings for the United States. Description The Space Weather Prediction Center is one of the nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and provides real-time monitoring and forecasting of solar and geophysical events, conducts research in solar-terrestrial physics (i.e. heliophysics), and develops techniques for forecasting solar and geophysical disturbances. The SWPC Forecast Center is jointly operated by NOAA and the U.S. Air Force (USAF) and is the national and world warning center for disturbances that can affect people and equip ...
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Ocean Prediction Center
The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), established in 1995, is one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP's) original six service centers. Until 2003, the name of the organization was the Marine Prediction Center.Ocean Prediction Center (2004)Ocean Prediction Center: 2003 Accomplishments. Retrieved on 2008-09-03. Its origins are traced back to the sinking of the RMS ''Titanic'' in 1912. The OPC issues forecasts up to five days in advance for ocean areas north of 31° north latitude and west of 35° west longitude in the Atlantic, and across the northeast Pacific north of 30° north latitude and east of 160° east longitude. Until recently, the OPC provided forecast points for tropical cyclones north of 20° north latitude and east of the 60° west longitude to the National Hurricane Center. OPC is composed of two branches: the Ocean Forecast Branch and the Ocean Applications Branch. History The first attempt as a marine weather program within the Unit ...
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National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the division of the United States' NOAA/National Weather Service responsible for tracking and predicting tropical weather systems between the Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian west poleward to the 30th parallel north in the northeast Pacific Ocean and the 31st parallel north in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The agency, which is co-located with the Miami branch of the National Weather Service, is situated on the campus of Florida International University in Westchester, Florida. The NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) routinely issues marine forecasts, in the form of graphics and high seas forecasts year round, with the Ocean Prediction Center having backup responsibility for this unit. The Technology and Science Branch (TSB) provides technical support for the center, which includes new infusions of technology from abroad. The Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All Hurricanes (CARCAH) unit tasks planes, for r ...
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North American Mesoscale Model
The North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) is a numerical weather prediction model run by National Centers for Environmental Prediction for short-term weather forecasting. Currently, the Weather Research and Forecasting Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM) model system serves as the dynamical core of the NAM model. The WRF replaced the Eta model on June 13, 2006. The NAM is run four times a day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) out to 84 hours, with 12 km horizontal resolution and with three-hour temporal resolution, providing finer detail than other operational forecast models. Its ensemble Ensemble may refer to: Art * Architectural ensemble * Ensemble (album), ''Ensemble'' (album), Kendji Girac 2015 album * Ensemble (band), a project of Olivier Alary * Ensemble cast (drama, comedy) * Ensemble (musical theatre), also known as the ... is known as the ''Short Range Ensemble Forecast'' (SREF) and runs out 87 hours. References External links NAM output productsModel Info Na ...
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Climate Forecast System (NCEP)
__NOTOC__ The Climate Forecast System or coupled forecast system (both names abbreviated CFS) is a medium to long range numerical weather prediction and a climate model run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to bridge weather and climate timescales. Version 2 became operational as CFSv2 in 2011. Overview CFSv2 is run once daily at NCEP, at multiple time scales. The medium-range model forecasts in one-week intervals out to four weeks, while the longer-range scale forecasts on three-month moving averages out some nine months. The shorter scale has some overlap with the Global Forecast System, NAVGEM and FIM models (among several other medium-range models) that the US government runs for operational forecast purposes. "Coupled" refers to the fact that the model couples atmospheric to oceanic modeling. Its forecasts are derived from a 16-member ensemble, with each member initialized on a lead of several days of conditions. The CFSv2 offers output that can be ma ...
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Wind Wave Model
In fluid dynamics, wind wave modeling describes the effort to depict the sea state and predict the evolution of the energy of wind waves using numerical techniques. These simulations consider atmospheric wind forcing, nonlinear wave interactions, and frictional dissipation, and they output statistics describing wave heights, periods, and propagation directions for regional seas or global oceans. Such wave hindcasts and wave forecasts are extremely important for commercial interests on the high seas. For example, the shipping industry requires guidance for operational planning and tactical seakeeping purposes. For the specific case of predicting wind wave statistics on the ocean, the term ocean surface wave model is used. Other applications, in particular coastal engineering, have led to the developments of wind wave models specifically designed for coastal applications. Historical overview Early forecasts of the sea state were created manually based upon empirical relation ...
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