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Dow Theory
The Dow theory on stock price movement is a form of technical analysis that includes some aspects of sector rotation. The theory was derived from 255 editorials in ''The Wall Street Journal'' written by Charles H. Dow (1851–1902), journalist, founder and first editor of ''The Wall Street Journal'' and co-founder of Dow Jones and Company. Following Dow's death, William Peter Hamilton, Robert Rhea and E. George Schaefer organized and collectively represented Dow theory, based on Dow's editorials. Dow himself never used the term ''Dow theory'' nor presented it as a trading system. The six basic tenets of Dow theory as summarized by Hamilton, Rhea, and Schaefer are described below. Six basic tenets of Dow theory # The market has three movements #: (''1'') The "main movement", primary movement or major trend may last from less than a year to several years. It can be bullish or bearish. #: (''2'') The "medium swing", secondary reaction or intermediate reaction may last from ten ...
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Technical Analysis
In finance, technical analysis is an analysis methodology for analysing and forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. As a type of active management, it stands in contradiction to much of modern portfolio theory. The efficacy of technical analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis, which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable, and research on whether technical analysis offers any benefit has produced mixed results.Osler, Karen (July 2000). "Support for Resistance: Technical Analysis and Intraday Exchange Rates," FRBNY Economic Policy Reviewabstract and paper here. It is distinguished from fundamental analysis, which considers a company's financial statements, health, and the overall state of the market and economy. History The principles of technical analysis are derived from hundreds of years of financial market data. Some aspects of technical analysis began to appear in Amste ...
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Sector Rotation
Sector rotation is a theory of stock market trading patterns. In this context, a sector is understood to mean a group of stocks representing companies in similar lines of business. The basic premise is that these stocks can be expected to perform similarly. Additionally, different groups of stocks which have been clustered according to the aforementioned principle will show differing performance. Sector rotation theory says a number of things. First, whichever sector is hot (has done well recently) should continue to outperform. Second, these sectors will eventually rotate so that whatever was once out of favor will be in favor. Third, these movements are somewhat predictable, and connected with the business cycle. With the phase-shift in the performance cycle of sectors (ideally like the phase-shifted wave patterns of three-phase electric power) an investor could continually hop from a sector at the peak of performance to a sector showing a potential to rise. A sector rotation i ...
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The Wall Street Journal
''The Wall Street Journal'' (''WSJ''), also referred to simply as the ''Journal,'' is an American newspaper based in New York City. The newspaper provides extensive coverage of news, especially business and finance. It operates on a subscription model, requiring readers to pay for access to most of its articles and content. The ''Journal'' is published six days a week by Dow Jones & Company, a division of News Corp. As of 2023, ''The'' ''Wall Street Journal'' is the List of newspapers in the United States, largest newspaper in the United States by print circulation, with 609,650 print subscribers. It has 3.17 million digital subscribers, the second-most in the nation after ''The New York Times''. The newspaper is one of the United States' Newspaper of record, newspapers of record. The first issue of the newspaper was published on July 8, 1889. The Editorial board at The Wall Street Journal, editorial page of the ''Journal'' is typically center-right in its positio ...
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Charles H
Charles is a masculine given name predominantly found in English and French speaking countries. It is from the French form ''Charles'' of the Proto-Germanic name (in runic alphabet) or ''*karilaz'' (in Latin alphabet), whose meaning was "free man". The Old English descendant of this word was '' Ċearl'' or ''Ċeorl'', as the name of King Cearl of Mercia, that disappeared after the Norman conquest of England. The name was notably borne by Charlemagne (Charles the Great), and was at the time Latinized as ''Karolus'' (as in ''Vita Karoli Magni''), later also as '' Carolus''. Etymology The name's etymology is a Common Germanic noun ''*karilaz'' meaning "free man", which survives in English as churl (James (wikt:Appendix:Proto-Indo-European/ǵerh₂-">ĝer-, where the ĝ is a palatal consonant, meaning "to rub; to be old; grain." An old man has been worn away and is now grey with age. In some Slavic languages, the name ''Drago (given name), Drago'' (and variants: ''Drago ...
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Dow Jones And Company
Dow Jones & Company, Inc. (also known simply as Dow Jones) is an American publishing firm owned by News Corp, and led by CEO Almar Latour. The company publishes ''The Wall Street Journal'', ''Barron's'', ''MarketWatch'', ''Mansion Global'', ''Financial News'' and '' Private Equity News''. The company is best known for its historical publication of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and related market statistics. It published the DJIA from 1882 until 2010, when News Corp then sold 90% ownership of the Dow Jones stock market indices business to CME Group; News Corp sold CME its remaining 10% in 2013. History The company was founded in 1882 by three reporters: Charles Dow, Edward Jones, and Charles Bergstresser. Charles Dow was widely known for his ability to break down and convey what was often considered very convoluted financial information and news to the general public – this is one of the reasons why Dow Jones & Company is well known for their publications and tra ...
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William Peter Hamilton
William Peter Hamilton (January 20, 1867 – December 9, 1929), a proponent of Dow Theory, was the fourth editor of the ''Wall Street Journal'', serving in that capacity for more than 20 years (i.e., January 1, 1908 – December 9, 1929).NYT.1. ::"Some people think and others do. Dow thought and created an index and pondered it. Hamilton [by contrast,] put it to practice as a workhorse. He was the first serious practitioner of [both] the art of forecasting future stock action based on precise prior action [and the] forecasting of the economy based on the market." Family Of Scottish heritage, and the son of Thomas Hamilton (born 1835), and Jane Elizabeth ( Earnshaw) Hamilton (born 1845), William Peter Hamilton was born in Manchester, Manchester, England on January 20, 1867. He married Georgiana Tooker in 1901. He married his second wife, Lillian Hart, in New York, on 19 May 1917. Journalist Having earlier worked as a clerk on the London Stock Exchange, he began his caree ...
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Market Trend
A market trend is a perceived tendency of the financial markets to move in a particular direction over time. Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-frames. Traders attempt to identify market trends using technical analysis, a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches support and resistance levels, varying over time. A future market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. This fact makes market timing inherently a game of educated guessing rather than a certainty. Past trends are identified by drawing lines, known as trendlines, that connect price action making higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower lows and lower highs for a downtrend. Market terminology The terms "bull market" and "bear market" describe upward and downward market tr ...
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Efficient-market Hypothesis
The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is a hypothesis in financial economics that states that asset prices reflect all available information. A direct implication is that it is impossible to "beat the market" consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information. Because the EMH is formulated in terms of risk adjustment, it only makes testable predictions when coupled with a particular model of risk. As a result, research in financial economics since at least the 1990s has focused on market anomalies, that is, deviations from specific models of risk. The idea that financial market returns are difficult to predict goes back to Bachelier, Mandelbrot, and Samuelson, but is closely associated with Eugene Fama, in part due to his influential 1970 review of the theoretical and empirical research. The EMH provides the basic logic for modern risk-based theories of asset prices, and frameworks such as consumption-based asset pricing and int ...
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Barron's Magazine
''Barron's'' (stylized in all caps) is an American weekly magazine and newspaper published by Dow Jones & Company, a division of News Corp, since 1921. Founded as ''Barron's National Financial Weekly'' in 1921 by Clarence W. Barron (1855–1928) as a sister publication to ''The Wall Street Journal'', ''Barron's'' covers U.S. financial companies, market developments, and relevant statistics. Each issue provides a summary of the previous week's market activity as well as news, reports, and an outlook on the week to come. Features Features in the publication include: * ''Market Week'' – coverage of the previous week's market activity * ''Barron's Roundtable'' – Posts from noted investors such as Bill Gross, Mario Gabelli, Abby Joseph Cohen, Felix Zulauf, and Marc Faber * ''Best Online Brokers'' – A ranking of the top online trading brokerage firms. Criteria include trading experience and technology, usability, mobile, range of offerings, research amenities, portfolio a ...
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Dow Jones Transportation Average
The Dow Jones Transportation Average, (DJTA, also called the "Dow Jones Transports"), index ticker symbol DJT is a U.S. stock market index from S&P Dow Jones Indices of the transportation sector, and is the most widely recognized gauge of the American transportation sector. It is the oldest stock index still in use, being in use longer than its better-known relative, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Components The index is a running average of the stock prices of twenty transportation corporations, with each stock's price weighted to adjust for stock splits and other factors. As a result, it can change at any time the markets are open. The figure mentioned in news reports is usually the figure derived from the prices at the close of the market for the day. Changes in the index's composition are rare, and generally occur only after corporate acquisitions or other dramatic shifts in a component's core business. Should such an event require that one component be replac ...
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Alfred Cowles
Alfred Cowles III (September 15, 1891 – December 28, 1984) was an American economist, businessman, and founder of the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics, an influential research institute which advanced the field of econometrics in the 20th century. When he established the Cowles Commission in 1932, he was intent on making economics more of a "science" by collecting data and applying modern mathematical and statistical techniques. Although he shared the same name as his father and grandfather, both of whom had been involved with the Chicago Tribune Company'','' he preferred to be known simply as Alfred Cowles. Early life and education Born on September 15, 1891, Alfred's family members called him "Bob". He was the grandson of Alfred Cowles Sr., who served as bookkeeper, then secretary-treasurer, of the ''Chicago Tribune.'' His father, Alfred Cowles Jr., was a director of the Chicago Tribune Company for 48 years. His mother, Elizabeth Cheney Cowles, died of lung d ...
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Portfolio (finance)
In finance, a portfolio is a collection of investments. Definition The term "portfolio" refers to any combination of financial assets such as stocks, bonds and cash. Portfolios may be held by individual investors or managed by financial professionals, hedge funds, banks and other financial institutions. It is a generally accepted principle that a portfolio is designed according to the investor's risk tolerance, time frame and investment objectives. The monetary value of each asset may influence the risk/reward ratio of the portfolio. When determining asset allocation, the aim is to maximise the expected return and minimise the risk. This is an example of a multi-objective optimization problem: many efficient solutions are available and the preferred solution must be selected by considering a tradeoff between risk and return. In particular, a portfolio A is dominated by another portfolio A' if A' has a greater expected gain and a lesser risk than A. If no portfolio dominates A ...
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