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Credal Network
Credal networks are probabilistic graphical models based on imprecise probability. Credal networks can be regarded as an extension of Bayesian networks, where credal sets replace probability mass functions in the specification of the local models for the network variables given their parents. As a Bayesian network defines a joint probability mass function over its variables, a credal network defines a joint credal set. The way this credal set is defined depends on the particular notion of independence for imprecise probability adopted. Most of the research on credal networks focused on the case of strong independence. Given strong independence the joint credal set associated to a credal network is called its strong extension. Let (X_1,\ldots,X_n) denote a collection of categorical variables and G. If K(X_i\mid\pi_i) is, for each i=1,\ldots,n, a conditional credal set over X_i, then the strong extension of a credal network is defined as follows: : K(X_1,\ldots,X_n)=\mathrm\ where \m ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Graphical Model
A graphical model or probabilistic graphical model (PGM) or structured probabilistic model is a probabilistic model for which a Graph (discrete mathematics), graph expresses the conditional dependence structure between random variables. They are commonly used in probability theory, statistics—particularly Bayesian statistics—and machine learning. Types of graphical models Generally, probabilistic graphical models use a graph-based representation as the foundation for encoding a distribution over a multi-dimensional space and a graph that is a compact or Factor graph, factorized representation of a set of independences that hold in the specific distribution. Two branches of graphical representations of distributions are commonly used, namely, Bayesian networks and Markov random fields. Both families encompass the properties of factorization and independences, but they differ in the set of independences they can encode and the factorization of the distribution that they induce ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Imprecise Probability
Imprecise probability generalizes probability theory to allow for partial probability specifications, and is applicable when information is scarce, vague, or conflicting, in which case a unique probability distribution may be hard to identify. Thereby, the theory aims to represent the available knowledge more accurately. Imprecision is useful for dealing with expert elicitation, because: * People have a limited ability to determine their own subjective probabilities and might find that they can only provide an interval. * As an interval is compatible with a range of opinions, the analysis ought to be more convincing to a range of different people. Introduction Uncertainty is traditionally modelled by a probability distribution, as developed by Kolmogorov, Laplace, de Finetti, Ramsey, Cox, Lindley, and many others. However, this has not been unanimously accepted by scientists, statisticians, and probabilists: it has been argued that some modification or broadening of probabili ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayesian Network
A Bayesian network (also known as a Bayes network, Bayes net, belief network, or decision network) is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Bayesian networks are ideal for taking an event that occurred and predicting the likelihood that any one of several possible known causes was the contributing factor. For example, a Bayesian network could represent the probabilistic relationships between diseases and symptoms. Given symptoms, the network can be used to compute the probabilities of the presence of various diseases. Efficient algorithms can perform inference and learning in Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks that model sequences of variables (''e.g.'' speech signals or protein sequences) are called dynamic Bayesian networks. Generalizations of Bayesian networks that can represent and solve decision problems under uncertainty are called influence diagrams. Graphical mode ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Credal Set
A credal set is a set of probability distributions or, more generally, a set of (possibly finitely additive) probability measures. A credal set is often assumed or constructed to be a closed convex set. It is intended to express uncertainty or doubt about the probability model that should be used, or to convey the beliefs of a Bayesian agent about the possible states of the world.Cozman, F. (1999)Theory of Sets of Probabilities (and related models) in a Nutshell. If a credal set K(X) is closed and convex, then, by the Krein–Milman theorem, it can be equivalently described by its extreme points \mathrm(X)/math>. In that case, the expectation for a function f of X with respect to the credal set K(X) forms a closed interval underline[f\overline[f">.html" ;"title="underline[f">underline[f\overline[f, whose lower bound is called the lower prevision of f, and whose upper bound is called the upper prevision of f: :\underline \min_ \int f \, d\mu=\min_ \int f \, d\mu where \mu denote ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Convex Hull
In geometry, the convex hull or convex envelope or convex closure of a shape is the smallest convex set that contains it. The convex hull may be defined either as the intersection of all convex sets containing a given subset of a Euclidean space, or equivalently as the set of all convex combinations of points in the subset. For a bounded subset of the plane, the convex hull may be visualized as the shape enclosed by a rubber band stretched around the subset. Convex hulls of open sets are open, and convex hulls of compact sets are compact. Every compact convex set is the convex hull of its extreme points. The convex hull operator is an example of a closure operator, and every antimatroid can be represented by applying this closure operator to finite sets of points. The algorithmic problems of finding the convex hull of a finite set of points in the plane or other low-dimensional Euclidean spaces, and its dual problem of intersecting half-spaces, are fundamental problems of com ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Imprecise Probability
Imprecise probability generalizes probability theory to allow for partial probability specifications, and is applicable when information is scarce, vague, or conflicting, in which case a unique probability distribution may be hard to identify. Thereby, the theory aims to represent the available knowledge more accurately. Imprecision is useful for dealing with expert elicitation, because: * People have a limited ability to determine their own subjective probabilities and might find that they can only provide an interval. * As an interval is compatible with a range of opinions, the analysis ought to be more convincing to a range of different people. Introduction Uncertainty is traditionally modelled by a probability distribution, as developed by Kolmogorov, Laplace, de Finetti, Ramsey, Cox, Lindley, and many others. However, this has not been unanimously accepted by scientists, statisticians, and probabilists: it has been argued that some modification or broadening of probabili ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Credal Set
A credal set is a set of probability distributions or, more generally, a set of (possibly finitely additive) probability measures. A credal set is often assumed or constructed to be a closed convex set. It is intended to express uncertainty or doubt about the probability model that should be used, or to convey the beliefs of a Bayesian agent about the possible states of the world.Cozman, F. (1999)Theory of Sets of Probabilities (and related models) in a Nutshell. If a credal set K(X) is closed and convex, then, by the Krein–Milman theorem, it can be equivalently described by its extreme points \mathrm(X)/math>. In that case, the expectation for a function f of X with respect to the credal set K(X) forms a closed interval underline[f\overline[f">.html" ;"title="underline[f">underline[f\overline[f, whose lower bound is called the lower prevision of f, and whose upper bound is called the upper prevision of f: :\underline \min_ \int f \, d\mu=\min_ \int f \, d\mu where \mu denote ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
