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Credal Set
A credal set is a set of probability distributions or, more generally, a set of (possibly finitely additive) probability measures. A credal set is often assumed or constructed to be a closed convex set. It is intended to express uncertainty or doubt about the probability model that should be used, or to convey the beliefs of a Bayesian agent about the possible states of the world.Cozman, F. (1999)Theory of Sets of Probabilities (and related models) in a Nutshell. If a credal set K(X) is closed and convex, then, by the Krein–Milman theorem, it can be equivalently described by its extreme points \mathrm(X)/math>. In that case, the expectation for a function f of X with respect to the credal set K(X) forms a closed interval underline[f\overline[f">.html" ;"title="underline[f">underline[f\overline[f, whose lower bound is called the lower prevision of f, and whose upper bound is called the upper prevision of f: :\underline \min_ \int f \, d\mu=\min_ \int f \, d\mu where \mu denote ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, a probability distribution is the mathematical function that gives the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes for an experiment. It is a mathematical description of a random phenomenon in terms of its sample space and the probabilities of events (subsets of the sample space). For instance, if is used to denote the outcome of a coin toss ("the experiment"), then the probability distribution of would take the value 0.5 (1 in 2 or 1/2) for , and 0.5 for (assuming that the coin is fair). Examples of random phenomena include the weather conditions at some future date, the height of a randomly selected person, the fraction of male students in a school, the results of a survey to be conducted, etc. Introduction A probability distribution is a mathematical description of the probabilities of events, subsets of the sample space. The sample space, often denoted by \Omega, is the set of all possible outcomes of a random phe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Measure
In mathematics, a probability measure is a real-valued function defined on a set of events in a probability space that satisfies measure properties such as ''countable additivity''. The difference between a probability measure and the more general notion of measure (which includes concepts like area or volume) is that a probability measure must assign value 1 to the entire probability space. Intuitively, the additivity property says that the probability assigned to the union of two disjoint events by the measure should be the sum of the probabilities of the events; for example, the value assigned to "1 or 2" in a throw of a dice should be the sum of the values assigned to "1" and "2". Probability measures have applications in diverse fields, from physics to finance and biology. Definition The requirements for a function \mu to be a probability measure on a probability space are that: * \mu must return results in the unit interval , 1 returning 0 for the empty set and 1 for t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Convex Set
In geometry, a subset of a Euclidean space, or more generally an affine space over the reals, is convex if, given any two points in the subset, the subset contains the whole line segment that joins them. Equivalently, a convex set or a convex region is a subset that intersects every line into a single line segment (possibly empty). For example, a solid cube is a convex set, but anything that is hollow or has an indent, for example, a crescent shape, is not convex. The boundary of a convex set in the plane is always a convex curve. The intersection of all the convex sets that contain a given subset of Euclidean space is called the convex hull of . It is the smallest convex set containing . A convex function is a real-valued function defined on an interval with the property that its epigraph (the set of points on or above the graph of the function) is a convex set. Convex minimization is a subfield of optimization that studies the problem of minimizing convex functions o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Uncertainty
Uncertainty refers to epistemic situations involving imperfect or unknown information. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in partially observable or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance, indolence, or both. It arises in any number of fields, including insurance, philosophy, physics, statistics, economics, finance, medicine, psychology, sociology, engineering, metrology, meteorology, ecology and information science. Concepts Although the terms are used in various ways among the general public, many specialists in decision theory, statistics and other quantitative fields have defined uncertainty, risk, and their measurement as: Uncertainty The lack of certainty, a state of limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe the existing state, a future outcome, or more than one possible outcome. ;Measurement of uncertainty: A set of possible states or outc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayesian Probability
Bayesian probability is an Probability interpretations, interpretation of the concept of probability, in which, instead of frequentist probability, frequency or propensity probability, propensity of some phenomenon, probability is interpreted as reasonable expectation representing a state of knowledge or as quantification of a personal belief. The Bayesian interpretation of probability can be seen as an extension of propositional logic that enables reasoning with Hypothesis, hypotheses; that is, with propositions whose truth value, truth or falsity is unknown. In the Bayesian view, a probability is assigned to a hypothesis, whereas under frequentist inference, a hypothesis is typically tested without being assigned a probability. Bayesian probability belongs to the category of evidential probabilities; to evaluate the probability of a hypothesis, the Bayesian probabilist specifies a prior probability. This, in turn, is then updated to a posterior probability in the light of new, re ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Krein–Milman Theorem
In the mathematical theory of functional analysis, the Krein–Milman theorem is a proposition about compact convex sets in locally convex topological vector spaces (TVSs). This theorem generalizes to infinite-dimensional spaces and to arbitrary compact convex sets the following basic observation: a convex (i.e. "filled") triangle, including its perimeter and the area "inside of it", is equal to the convex hull of its three vertices, where these vertices are exactly the extreme points of this shape. This observation also holds for any other convex polygon in the plane \R^2. Statement and definitions Preliminaries and definitions Throughout, X will be a real or complex vector space. For any elements x and y in a vector space, the set , y:= \ is called the or closed interval between x and y. The or open interval between x and y is (x, x) := \varnothing when x = y while it is (x, y) := \ when x \neq y; it satisfies (x, y) = , y\setminus \ and , y= (x, y) \cup \. The points x ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Extreme Point
In mathematics, an extreme point of a convex set S in a real or complex vector space is a point in S which does not lie in any open line segment joining two points of S. In linear programming problems, an extreme point is also called vertex or corner point of S. Definition Throughout, it is assumed that X is a real or complex vector space. For any p, x, y \in X, say that p x and y if x \neq y and there exists a 0 < t < 1 such that If is a subset of and then is called an of if it does not lie between any two points of That is, if there does exist and such that and The set of all extreme points of is denoted by Generalizations If is a subset of a vector space then a linear sub ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Categorical Variable
In statistics, a categorical variable (also called qualitative variable) is a variable that can take on one of a limited, and usually fixed, number of possible values, assigning each individual or other unit of observation to a particular group or nominal category on the basis of some qualitative property. In computer science and some branches of mathematics, categorical variables are referred to as enumerations or enumerated types. Commonly (though not in this article), each of the possible values of a categorical variable is referred to as a level. The probability distribution associated with a random categorical variable is called a categorical distribution. Categorical data is the statistical data type consisting of categorical variables or of data that has been converted into that form, for example as grouped data. More specifically, categorical data may derive from observations made of qualitative data that are summarised as counts or cross tabulations, or from observations o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Mass Function
In probability and statistics, a probability mass function is a function that gives the probability that a discrete random variable is exactly equal to some value. Sometimes it is also known as the discrete density function. The probability mass function is often the primary means of defining a discrete probability distribution, and such functions exist for either scalar or multivariate random variables whose domain is discrete. A probability mass function differs from a probability density function (PDF) in that the latter is associated with continuous rather than discrete random variables. A PDF must be integrated over an interval to yield a probability. The value of the random variable having the largest probability mass is called the mode. Formal definition Probability mass function is the probability distribution of a discrete random variable, and provides the possible values and their associated probabilities. It is the function p: \R \to ,1/math> defined by for -\inf ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Boolean Variable
In computer science, the Boolean (sometimes shortened to Bool) is a data type that has one of two possible values (usually denoted ''true'' and ''false'') which is intended to represent the two truth values of logic and Boolean algebra. It is named after George Boole, who first defined an algebraic system of logic in the mid 19th century. The Boolean data type is primarily associated with conditional statements, which allow different actions by changing control flow depending on whether a programmer-specified Boolean ''condition'' evaluates to true or false. It is a special case of a more general ''logical data type—''logic does not always need to be Boolean (see probabilistic logic). Generalities In programming languages with a built-in Boolean data type, such as Pascal and Java, the comparison operators such as > and ≠ are usually defined to return a Boolean value. Conditional and iterative commands may be defined to test Boolean-valued expressions. Languages with no ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Imprecise Probability
Imprecise probability generalizes probability theory to allow for partial probability specifications, and is applicable when information is scarce, vague, or conflicting, in which case a unique probability distribution may be hard to identify. Thereby, the theory aims to represent the available knowledge more accurately. Imprecision is useful for dealing with expert elicitation, because: * People have a limited ability to determine their own subjective probabilities and might find that they can only provide an interval. * As an interval is compatible with a range of opinions, the analysis ought to be more convincing to a range of different people. Introduction Uncertainty is traditionally modelled by a probability distribution, as developed by Kolmogorov, Laplace, de Finetti, Ramsey, Cox, Lindley, and many others. However, this has not been unanimously accepted by scientists, statisticians, and probabilists: it has been argued that some modification or broadening of probabili ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Dempster–Shafer Theory
The theory of belief functions, also referred to as evidence theory or Dempster–Shafer theory (DST), is a general framework for reasoning with uncertainty, with understood connections to other frameworks such as probability, possibility and imprecise probability theories. First introduced by Arthur P. Dempster in the context of statistical inference, the theory was later developed by Glenn Shafer into a general framework for modeling epistemic uncertainty—a mathematical theory of evidence.Shafer, Glenn; ''A Mathematical Theory of Evidence'', Princeton University Press, 1976, The theory allows one to combine evidence from different sources and arrive at a degree of belief (represented by a mathematical object called ''belief function'') that takes into account all the available evidence. In a narrow sense, the term Dempster–Shafer theory refers to the original conception of the theory by Dempster and Shafer. However, it is more common to use the term in the wider sense of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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