Bachelier Model
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Bachelier Model
The Bachelier model is a model of an asset price under brownian motion presented by Louis Bachelier on his PhD thesis ''The Theory of Speculation'' (''Théorie de la spéculation'', published 1900). It is also called "Normal Model" equivalently (as opposed to "Log-Normal Model" or "Black-Scholes Model"). On April 8 2020, the CME Group posted the note ''CME Clearing Plan to Address the Potential of a Negative Underlying in Certain Energy Options Contracts'', saying that after a threshold on price, it would change its standard energy options model from one based on Geometric Brownian Motion and the Black–Scholes model to the Bachelier model. On April 20 2020, oil futures reached negative values for the first time in history, where Bachelier model took an important role in option pricing and risk management. The European analytic formula for this model based on a risk neutral argument is derived in ''Analytic Formula for the European Normal Black Scholes Formula'' (''Kazuhiro Iw ...
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Brownian Motion
Brownian motion, or pedesis (from grc, πήδησις "leaping"), is the random motion of particles suspended in a medium (a liquid or a gas). This pattern of motion typically consists of random fluctuations in a particle's position inside a fluid sub-domain, followed by a relocation to another sub-domain. Each relocation is followed by more fluctuations within the new closed volume. This pattern describes a fluid at thermal equilibrium, defined by a given temperature. Within such a fluid, there exists no preferential direction of flow (as in transport phenomena). More specifically, the fluid's overall linear and angular momenta remain null over time. The kinetic energies of the molecular Brownian motions, together with those of molecular rotations and vibrations, sum up to the caloric component of a fluid's internal energy (the equipartition theorem). This motion is named after the botanist Robert Brown, who first described the phenomenon in 1827, while looking throu ...
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Louis Bachelier
Louis Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Bachelier (; 11 March 1870 – 28 April 1946) was a French mathematician at the turn of the 20th century. He is credited with being the first person to model the stochastic process now called Brownian motion, as part of his doctoral thesis ''The Theory of Speculation'' (''Théorie de la spéculation'', defended in 1900). Bachelier's doctoral thesis, which introduced the first mathematical model of Brownian motion and its use for valuing stock options, was the first paper to use advanced mathematics in the study of finance. His Bachelier model has been influential in the development of other widely used models, including the Black-Scholes model. Thus, Bachelier is considered as the forefather of mathematical finance and a pioneer in the study of stochastic processes. Early years Bachelier was born in Le Havre. His father was a wine merchant and amateur scientist, and the vice-consul of Venezuela at Le Havre. His mother was the daughter of an impor ...
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CME Group
CME Group Inc. (Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Chicago Board of Trade, New York Mercantile Exchange, The Commodity Exchange) is an American global markets company. It is the world's largest financial derivatives exchange, and trades in asset classes that include agricultural products, currencies, energy, interest rates, metals, stock indexes and cryptocurrencies futures. The company offers futures contracts and options on futures using its CME Globex trading platforms, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates a central counterparty clearing provider, CME Clearing. With a range of pre- and post-trade products and services underpinning the entire lifecycle of a trade, CME Group also offers optimization and reconciliation services through TriOptima, and trade processing services through Traiana. The company has been described by ''The Economist'' as, "The biggest financial exchange you have never heard of". In 20 ...
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Geometric Brownian Motion
A geometric Brownian motion (GBM) (also known as exponential Brownian motion) is a continuous-time stochastic process in which the logarithm of the randomly varying quantity follows a Brownian motion (also called a Wiener process) with drift. It is an important example of stochastic processes satisfying a stochastic differential equation (SDE); in particular, it is used in mathematical finance to model stock prices in the Black–Scholes model. Technical definition: the SDE A stochastic process ''S''''t'' is said to follow a GBM if it satisfies the following stochastic differential equation (SDE): : dS_t = \mu S_t\,dt + \sigma S_t\,dW_t where W_t is a Wiener process or Brownian motion, and \mu ('the percentage drift') and \sigma ('the percentage volatility') are constants. The former is used to model deterministic trends, while the latter term is often used to model a set of unpredictable events occurring during this motion. Solving the SDE For an arbitrary initial ...
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Black–Scholes Model
The Black–Scholes or Black–Scholes–Merton model is a mathematical model for the dynamics of a financial market containing derivative investment instruments. From the parabolic partial differential equation in the model, known as the Black–Scholes equation, one can deduce the Black–Scholes formula, which gives a theoretical estimate of the price of European-style options and shows that the option has a ''unique'' price given the risk of the security and its expected return (instead replacing the security's expected return with the risk-neutral rate). The equation and model are named after economists Fischer Black and Myron Scholes; Robert C. Merton, who first wrote an academic paper on the subject, is sometimes also credited. The main principle behind the model is to hedge the option by buying and selling the underlying asset in a specific way to eliminate risk. This type of hedging is called "continuously revised delta hedging" and is the basis of more complicated ...
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Negative Pricing
In economics, negative pricing can occur when demand for a product drops or supply increases to an extent that owners or suppliers are prepared to pay others to accept it, in effect setting the price to a negative number. This can happen because it costs money to transport, store, and dispose of a product even when there is little demand to buy it. Negative prices are usual for waste such as garbage and nuclear waste. For example, a nuclear power plant may "sell" radioactive waste to a processing facility for a negative price; in other words, the power plant is paying the processing facility to take the unwanted radioactive waste. The phenomenon can also occur in energy prices, including electricity prices, natural gas prices, and oil prices. Examples Natural gas in West Texas Natural gas prices in the Permian Basin, West Texas, went below zero more than once in 2019. Natural gas is produced there as a byproduct of oil production, but production has increased faster than th ...
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New York University
New York University (NYU) is a private research university in New York City. Chartered in 1831 by the New York State Legislature, NYU was founded by a group of New Yorkers led by then-Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin. In 1832, the non-denominational all-male institution began its first classes near City Hall based on a curriculum focused on a secular education. The university moved in 1833 and has maintained its main campus in Greenwich Village surrounding Washington Square Park. Since then, the university has added an engineering school in Brooklyn's MetroTech Center and graduate schools throughout Manhattan. NYU has become the largest private university in the United States by enrollment, with a total of 51,848 enrolled students, including 26,733 undergraduate students and 25,115 graduate students, in 2019. NYU also receives the most applications of any private institution in the United States and admission is considered highly selective. NYU is organized int ...
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Implied Volatility
In financial mathematics, the implied volatility (IV) of an option contract is that value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which, when input in an option pricing model (such as Black–Scholes), will return a theoretical value equal to the current market price of said option. A non-option financial instrument that has embedded optionality, such as an interest rate cap, can also have an implied volatility. Implied volatility, a forward-looking and subjective measure, differs from historical volatility because the latter is calculated from known past returns of a security. To understand where implied volatility stands in terms of the underlying, implied volatility rank is used to understand its implied volatility from a one-year high and low IV. Motivation An option pricing model, such as Black–Scholes, uses a variety of inputs to derive a theoretical value for an option. Inputs to pricing models vary depending on the type of option being priced and the pricing m ...
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Energy Economics
Energy economics is a broad scientific subject area which includes topics related to supply and use of energy in societies. Considering the cost of energy services and associated value gives economic meaning to the efficiency at which energy can be produced. Energy services can be defined as functions that generate and provide energy to the “desired end services or states”. The efficiency of energy services is dependent on the engineered technology used to produce and supply energy. The goal is to minimise energy input required (e.g. kWh, mJ, see Units of Energy) to produce the energy service, such as lighting ( lumens), heating (temperature) and fuel (natural gas). The main sectors considered in energy economics are transportation and building, although it is relevant to a broad scale of human activities, including households and businesses at a microeconomic level and resource management and environmental impacts at a macroeconomic level. Due to diversity of issues a ...
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Finance Theories
Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets. It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of financial economics bridges the two). Finance activities take place in financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly divided into personal, corporate, and public finance. In a financial system, assets are bought, sold, or traded as financial instruments, such as currencies, loans, bonds, shares, stocks, options, futures, etc. Assets can also be banked, invested, and insured to maximize value and minimize loss. In practice, risks are always present in any financial action and entities. A broad range of subfields within finance exist due to its wide scope. Asset, money, risk and investment management aim to maximize value and minimize volatility. Financial analysis is viability, stability, and profitability assessmen ...
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Financial Models
Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets. It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of Production (economics), production, Distribution (economics), distribution, and Consumption (economics), consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of financial economics bridges the two). Finance activities take place in Financial system, financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly divided into Personal finance, personal, Corporate finance, corporate, and public finance. In a financial system, assets are bought, sold, or traded as Financial instrument, financial instruments, such as Currency, currencies, Loan, loans, Bond (finance), bonds, Share (finance), shares, Stock, stocks, Option (finance), options, Futures contract, futures, etc. Assets can also be Bank, banked, Investment, invested, and Insurance, insured to maximize value and minimize loss. In practice, Financial risk, risks are alway ...
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