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Beta Negative Binomial Distribution
In probability theory, a beta negative binomial distribution is the probability distribution of a discrete random variable X equal to the number of failures needed to get r successes in a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials. The probability p of success on each trial stays constant within any given experiment but varies across different experiments following a beta distribution. Thus the distribution is a compound probability distribution. This distribution has also been called both the inverse Markov-Pólya distribution and the generalized Waring distributionJohnson et al. (1993) or simply abbreviated as the BNB distribution. A shifted form of the distribution has been called the beta-Pascal distribution. If parameters of the beta distribution are \alpha and \beta, and if : X \mid p \sim \mathrm(r,p), where : p \sim \textrm(\alpha,\beta), then the marginal distribution of X is a beta negative binomial distribution: : X \sim \mathrm(r,\alpha,\beta). In the above, \ ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Shape Parameter
In probability theory and statistics, a shape parameter (also known as form parameter) is a kind of numerical parameter of a parametric family of probability distributionsEveritt B.S. (2002) Cambridge Dictionary of Statistics. 2nd Edition. CUP. that is neither a location parameter nor a scale parameter (nor a function of these, such as a rate parameter). Such a parameter must affect the ''shape'' of a distribution rather than simply shifting it (as a location parameter does) or stretching/shrinking it (as a scale parameter does). For example, "peakedness" refers to how round the main peak is. Estimation Many estimators measure location or scale; however, estimators for shape parameters also exist. Most simply, they can be estimated in terms of the higher moments, using the method of moments, as in the ''skewness'' (3rd moment) or ''kurtosis'' (4th moment), if the higher moments are defined and finite. Estimators of shape often involve higher-order statistics (non-linear functi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Identifiability
In statistics, identifiability is a property which a model must satisfy for precise inference to be possible. A model is identifiable if it is theoretically possible to learn the true values of this model's underlying parameters after obtaining an infinite number of observations from it. Mathematically, this is equivalent to saying that different values of the parameters must generate different probability distributions of the observable variables. Usually the model is identifiable only under certain technical restrictions, in which case the set of these requirements is called the identification conditions. A model that fails to be identifiable is said to be non-identifiable or unidentifiable: two or more parametrizations are observationally equivalent. In some cases, even though a model is non-identifiable, it is still possible to learn the true values of a certain subset of the model parameters. In this case we say that the model is partially identifiable. In other cases it ma ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Negative Binomial Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the negative binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution that models the number of failures in a sequence of independent and identically distributed Bernoulli trials before a specified (non-random) number of successes (denoted r) occurs. For example, we can define rolling a 6 on a die as a success, and rolling any other number as a failure, and ask how many failure rolls will occur before we see the third success (r=3). In such a case, the probability distribution of the number of failures that appear will be a negative binomial distribution. An alternative formulation is to model the number of total trials (instead of the number of failures). In fact, for a specified (non-random) number of successes (r), the number of failures (n - r) are random because the total trials (n) are random. For example, we could use the negative binomial distribution to model the number of days n (random) a certain machine works (specified by r) ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Pólya Urn Model
In statistics, a Pólya urn model (also known as a Pólya urn scheme or simply as Pólya's urn), named after George Pólya, is a type of statistical model used as an idealized mental exercise framework, unifying many treatments. In an urn model, objects of real interest (such as atoms, people, cars, etc.) are represented as colored balls in an urn or other container. In the basic Pólya urn model, the urn contains ''x'' white and ''y'' black balls; one ball is drawn randomly from the urn and its color observed; it is then returned in the urn, and an additional ball of the same color is added to the urn, and the selection process is repeated. Questions of interest are the evolution of the urn population and the sequence of colors of the balls drawn out. This endows the urn with a self-reinforcing property sometimes expressed as ''the rich get richer''. Note that in some sense, the Pólya urn model is the "opposite" of the model of sampling without replacement, where every time a p ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Urn Model
In probability and statistics, an urn problem is an idealized mental exercise in which some objects of real interest (such as atoms, people, cars, etc.) are represented as colored balls in an urn or other container. One pretends to remove one or more balls from the urn; the goal is to determine the probability of drawing one color or another, or some other properties. A number of important variations are described below. An urn model is either a set of probabilities that describe events within an urn problem, or it is a probability distribution, or a family of such distributions, of random variables associated with urn problems.Dodge, Yadolah (2003) ''Oxford Dictionary of Statistical Terms'', OUP. History In ''Ars Conjectandi'' (1713), Jacob Bernoulli considered the problem of determining, given a number of pebbles drawn from an urn, the proportions of different colored pebbles within the urn. This problem was known as the ''inverse probability'' problem, and was a topic of res ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Yule–Simon Distribution
In probability and statistics, the Yule–Simon distribution is a discrete probability distribution named after Udny Yule and Herbert A. Simon. Simon originally called it the ''Yule distribution''. The probability mass function (pmf) of the Yule–Simon (''ρ'') distribution is :f(k;\rho) = \rho\operatorname(k, \rho+1), for integer k \geq 1 and real \rho > 0, where \operatorname is the beta function. Equivalently the pmf can be written in terms of the rising factorial as : f(k;\rho) = \frac, where \Gamma is the gamma function. Thus, if \rho is an integer, : f(k;\rho) = \frac. The parameter \rho can be estimated using a fixed point algorithm. The probability mass function ''f'' has the property that for sufficiently large ''k'' we have : f(k;\rho) \approx \frac \propto \frac 1 . This means that the tail of the Yule–Simon distribution is a realization of Zipf's law: f(k;\rho) can be used to model, for example, the relative frequency of the kth most frequent ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Buy Till You Die
The Buy Till You Die (BTYD) class of statistical models are designed to capture the behavioral characteristics of non-contractual customers, or when the company is not able to directly observe when a customer stops being a customer of a brand. The goal is typically to model and forecast customer lifetime value. BTYD models all jointly model two processes: (1) a repeat purchase process, that explains how frequently customers make purchases while they are still "alive"; and (2) a dropout process, which models how likely a customer is to churn in any given time period. Common versions of the BTYD model include: * The Pareto/NBD model, which models the dropout process as a Pareto Type II distribution and the purchase frequency process as a negative binomial distribution * The Beta-Geometric/NBD model, which models the dropout process as a geometric distribution with a beta mixing distribution, and models the purchase frequency process as a negative binomial distribution. The co ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Moment (mathematics)
In mathematics, the moments of a function are certain quantitative measures related to the shape of the function's graph. If the function represents mass density, then the zeroth moment is the total mass, the first moment (normalized by total mass) is the center of mass, and the second moment is the moment of inertia. If the function is a probability distribution, then the first moment is the expected value, the second central moment is the variance, the third standardized moment is the skewness, and the fourth standardized moment is the kurtosis. The mathematical concept is closely related to the concept of moment in physics. For a distribution of mass or probability on a bounded interval, the collection of all the moments (of all orders, from to ) uniquely determines the distribution (Hausdorff moment problem). The same is not true on unbounded intervals (Hamburger moment problem). In the mid-nineteenth century, Pafnuty Chebyshev became the first person to think systematic ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Heavy Tail Distribution
In probability theory, heavy-tailed distributions are probability distributions whose tails are not exponentially bounded: that is, they have heavier tails than the exponential distribution. In many applications it is the right tail of the distribution that is of interest, but a distribution may have a heavy left tail, or both tails may be heavy. There are three important subclasses of heavy-tailed distributions: the fat-tailed distributions, the long-tailed distributions and the subexponential distributions. In practice, all commonly used heavy-tailed distributions belong to the subexponential class. There is still some discrepancy over the use of the term heavy-tailed. There are two other definitions in use. Some authors use the term to refer to those distributions which do not have all their power moments finite; and some others to those distributions that do not have a finite variance. The definition given in this article is the most general in use, and includes all dist ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Stirling's Approximation
In mathematics, Stirling's approximation (or Stirling's formula) is an approximation for factorials. It is a good approximation, leading to accurate results even for small values of n. It is named after James Stirling, though a related but less precise result was first stated by Abraham de Moivre. One way of stating the approximation involves the logarithm of the factorial: \ln(n!) = n\ln n - n +O(\ln n), where the big O notation means that, for all sufficiently large values of n, the difference between \ln(n!) and n\ln n-n will be at most proportional to the logarithm. In computer science applications such as the worst-case lower bound for comparison sorting, it is convenient to use instead the binary logarithm, giving the equivalent form \log_2 (n!) = n\log_2 n - n\log_2 e +O(\log_2 n). The error term in either base can be expressed more precisely as \tfrac12\log(2\pi n)+O(\tfrac1n), corresponding to an approximate formula for the factorial itself, n! \sim \sqrt\left(\frac\righ ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Poisson Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and Statistical independence, independently of the time since the last event. It is named after France, French mathematician Siméon Denis Poisson (; ). The Poisson distribution can also be used for the number of events in other specified interval types such as distance, area, or volume. For instance, a call center receives an average of 180 calls per hour, 24 hours a day. The calls are independent; receiving one does not change the probability of when the next one will arrive. The number of calls received during any minute has a Poisson probability distribution with mean 3: the most likely numbers are 2 and 3 but 1 and 4 are also likely and there is a small probability of it being as low as zero and a very smal ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Geometric Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the geometric distribution is either one of two discrete probability distributions: * The probability distribution of the number ''X'' of Bernoulli trials needed to get one success, supported on the set \; * The probability distribution of the number ''Y'' = ''X'' − 1 of failures before the first success, supported on the set \. Which of these is called the geometric distribution is a matter of convention and convenience. These two different geometric distributions should not be confused with each other. Often, the name ''shifted'' geometric distribution is adopted for the former one (distribution of the number ''X''); however, to avoid ambiguity, it is considered wise to indicate which is intended, by mentioning the support explicitly. The geometric distribution gives the probability that the first occurrence of success requires ''k'' independent trials, each with success probability ''p''. If the probability of succe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
