|
Bayesian Structural Time Series
Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model is a statistical technique used for feature selection, time series forecasting, nowcasting, inferring causal impact and other applications. The model is designed to work with time series data. The model has also promising application in the field of analytical marketing. In particular, it can be used in order to assess how much different marketing campaigns have contributed to the change in web search volumes, product sales, brand popularity and other relevant indicators. Difference-in-differences models and interrupted time series designs are alternatives to this approach. "In contrast to classical difference-in-differences schemes, state-space models make it possible to (i) infer the temporal evolution of attributable impact, (ii) incorporate empirical priors on the parameters in a fully Bayesian treatment, and (iii) flexibly accommodate multiple sources of variation, including the time-varying influence of contemporaneous covariates ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistical
Statistics (from German language, German: ', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of statistical survey, surveys and experimental design, experiments. When census data (comprising every member of the target population) cannot be collected, statisticians collect data by developing specific experiment designs and survey sample (statistics), samples. Representative sampling assures that inferences and conclusions can reasonably extend from the sample ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ensemble Learning
In statistics and machine learning, ensemble methods use multiple learning algorithms to obtain better predictive performance than could be obtained from any of the constituent learning algorithms alone. Unlike a statistical ensemble in statistical mechanics, which is usually infinite, a machine learning ensemble consists of only a concrete finite set of alternative models, but typically allows for much more flexible structure to exist among those alternatives. Overview Supervised learning algorithms search through a hypothesis space to find a suitable hypothesis that will make good predictions with a particular problem. Even if this space contains hypotheses that are very well-suited for a particular problem, it may be very difficult to find a good one. Ensembles combine multiple hypotheses to form one which should be theoretically better. ''Ensemble learning'' trains two or more machine learning algorithms on a specific classification or regression task. The algorithms wi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Machine Learning
Machine learning (ML) is a field of study in artificial intelligence concerned with the development and study of Computational statistics, statistical algorithms that can learn from data and generalise to unseen data, and thus perform Task (computing), tasks without explicit Machine code, instructions. Within a subdiscipline in machine learning, advances in the field of deep learning have allowed Neural network (machine learning), neural networks, a class of statistical algorithms, to surpass many previous machine learning approaches in performance. ML finds application in many fields, including natural language processing, computer vision, speech recognition, email filtering, agriculture, and medicine. The application of ML to business problems is known as predictive analytics. Statistics and mathematical optimisation (mathematical programming) methods comprise the foundations of machine learning. Data mining is a related field of study, focusing on exploratory data analysi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Jennifer A
Jennifer or Jenifer may refer to: People *Jennifer (given name) * Jenifer (singer), French pop singer *Jennifer Warnes, American singer who formerly used the stage name Jennifer * Daniel of St. Thomas Jenifer * Daniel Jenifer Film and television * ''Jennifer'' (1953 film), a film starring Ida Lupino * ''Jennifer'' (1978 film), a horror film by Brice Mack * ''Jennifer'', a 1998 Ghanaian film starring Brew Riverson Jnr * "Jenifer" (''Masters of Horror''), an episode of ''Masters of Horror'' Music * The Jennifers, a British band, some of whose members later formed Supergrass * ''Jenifer'' (album), an album by French singer Jenifer * ''Jennifer'' (album), a 1972 album by Jennifer Warnes * "Jennifer", a 1974 song by Faust from ''Faust IV'' * "Jennifer", a 1983 song by Eurythmics from ''Sweet Dreams (Are Made of This)'' (album) * "Jennifer", a 2001 song by M2M from ''The Big Room'' Other uses * Hurricane Jennifer * Project Jennifer, a CIA attempt to recover a Soviet sub ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Spike-and-slab Regression
Spike-and-slab regression is a type of Bayesian linear regression in which a particular hierarchical prior distribution for the regression coefficients is chosen such that only a subset of the possible regressors is retained. The technique is particularly useful when the number of possible predictors is larger than the number of observations. The idea of the spike-and-slab model was originally proposed by Mitchell & Beauchamp (1988). The approach was further significantly developed by Madigan & Raftery (1994) and George & McCulloch (1997). A recent and important contribution to this literature is Ishwaran & Rao (2005). Model description Suppose we have ''P'' possible predictors in some model. Vector ''γ'' has a length equal to ''P'' and consists of zeros and ones. This vector indicates whether a particular variable is included in the regression or not. If no specific prior information on initial inclusion probabilities of particular variables is available, a Bernoulli prior di ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Correlation Does Not Imply Causation
The phrase "correlation does not imply causation" refers to the inability to legitimately deduce a cause-and-effect relationship between two events or variables solely on the basis of an observed association or correlation between them. The idea that "correlation implies causation" is an example of a questionable-cause logical fallacy, in which two events occurring together are taken to have established a cause-and-effect relationship. This fallacy is also known by the Latin phrase ''cum hoc ergo propter hoc'' ('with this, therefore because of this'). This differs from the fallacy known as '' post hoc ergo propter hoc'' ("after this, therefore because of this"), in which an event following another is seen as a necessary consequence of the former event, and from conflation, the errant merging of two events, ideas, databases, etc., into one. As with any logical fallacy, identifying that the reasoning behind an argument is flawed does not necessarily imply that the resulting c ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling
Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling (BUGS) is a statistical software for performing Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. It was developed by David Spiegelhalter at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit in University of Cambridge, Cambridge in 1989 and released as free software in 1991. The BUGS project has evolved through four main versions: ClassicBUGS, WinBUGS, OpenBUGS anMultiBUGS MultiBUGS is built on the existing algorithms and tools in OpenBUGS and WinBUGS, which are no longer developed, and implements Parallel computing, parallelization to speed up computation. Several R (programming language), R packages are availableR2MultiBUGSacts as an interface to MultiBUGS, whilNimbleis an extension of the BUGS language. Alternative implementations of the BUGS language include Just another Gibbs sampler, JAGS and Stan (software), Stan. See also * Spike and slab variable selection * Bayesian structural time series References External l ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
R (programming Language)
R is a programming language for statistical computing and Data and information visualization, data visualization. It has been widely adopted in the fields of data mining, bioinformatics, data analysis, and data science. The core R language is extended by a large number of R package, software packages, which contain Reusability, reusable code, documentation, and sample data. Some of the most popular R packages are in the tidyverse collection, which enhances functionality for visualizing, transforming, and modelling data, as well as improves the ease of programming (according to the authors and users). R is free and open-source software distributed under the GNU General Public License. The language is implemented primarily in C (programming language), C, Fortran, and Self-hosting (compilers), R itself. Preprocessor, Precompiled executables are available for the major operating systems (including Linux, MacOS, and Microsoft Windows). Its core is an interpreted language with a na ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Spike-and-slab Variable Selection
Spike-and-slab regression is a type of Bayesian linear regression in which a particular hierarchical prior distribution for the regression coefficients is chosen such that only a subset of the possible regressors is retained. The technique is particularly useful when the number of possible predictors is larger than the number of observations. The idea of the spike-and-slab model was originally proposed by Mitchell & Beauchamp (1988). The approach was further significantly developed by Madigan & Raftery (1994) and George & McCulloch (1997). A recent and important contribution to this literature is Ishwaran & Rao (2005). Model description Suppose we have ''P'' possible predictors in some model. Vector ''γ'' has a length equal to ''P'' and consists of zeros and ones. This vector indicates whether a particular variable is included in the regression or not. If no specific prior information on initial inclusion probabilities of particular variables is available, a Bernoulli prior d ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Feature Selection
In machine learning, feature selection is the process of selecting a subset of relevant Feature (machine learning), features (variables, predictors) for use in model construction. Feature selection techniques are used for several reasons: * simplification of models to make them easier to interpret, * shorter training times, * to avoid the curse of dimensionality, * improve the compatibility of the data with a certain learning model class, * to encode inherent Symmetric space, symmetries present in the input space. The central premise when using feature selection is that data sometimes contains features that are ''redundant'' or ''irrelevant'', and can thus be removed without incurring much loss of information. Redundancy and irrelevance are two distinct notions, since one relevant feature may be redundant in the presence of another relevant feature with which it is strongly correlated. Feature extraction creates new features from functions of the original features, whereas feat ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Kalman Filter
In statistics and control theory, Kalman filtering (also known as linear quadratic estimation) is an algorithm that uses a series of measurements observed over time, including statistical noise and other inaccuracies, to produce estimates of unknown variables that tend to be more accurate than those based on a single measurement, by estimating a joint probability distribution over the variables for each time-step. The filter is constructed as a mean squared error minimiser, but an alternative derivation of the filter is also provided showing how the filter relates to maximum likelihood statistics. The filter is named after Rudolf E. Kálmán. Kalman filtering has numerous technological applications. A common application is for guidance, navigation, and control of vehicles, particularly aircraft, spacecraft and ships Dynamic positioning, positioned dynamically. Furthermore, Kalman filtering is much applied in time series analysis tasks such as signal processing and econometrics. K ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Interrupted Time Series
Interrupted time series analysis (ITS), sometimes known as quasi-experimental time series analysis, is a method of statistical analysis involving tracking a long-term period before and after a point of intervention to assess the intervention's effects. The time series refers to the data over the period, while the interruption is the intervention, which is a controlled external influence or set of influences. Effects of the intervention are evaluated by changes in the level and slope of the time series and statistical significance of the intervention parameters. Interrupted time series design is the design of experiments based on the interrupted time series approach. The method is used in various areas of research, such as: *political science: impact of changes in laws on the behavior of people; (e.g., Effectiveness of sex offender registration policies in the United States) *economics: impact of changes in credit controls on borrowing behavior; *sociology: impact of experiments in ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
