Software developers

Market changes in the US

After the crash of the dot-com bubble (1999–2001) and the Great Recession (2008), many U.S. programmers were left without work or with lower wages. In addition, enrollment in computer-related degrees and other STEM degrees (STEM attrition) in the US has been dropping for years, especially for women, which, according to Beaubouef and Mason, could be attributed to a lack of general interest in science and mathematics and also out of an apparent fear that programming will be subject to the same pressures as manufacturing and agriculture careers. For programmers, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Outlook originally predicted a growth for programmers of 12 percent from 2010 to 2020 and thereafter a decline of -7 percent from 2016 to 2026, a further decline of -9 percent from 2019 to 2029, a decline of -10 percent from 2021 to 2031. and then a decline of -11 percent from 2022 to 2032. 2024 to 2034 a decline of -6 percent. The current prediction for 2025 to 2035 is a decline of -7 percent. Since computer programming can be done from anywhere in the world, companies sometimes hire programmers in countries where wages are lower. If domestic demand has increased, it is mainly to replace the attrition of aging programmers or those leaving this occupation. However, for software developers BLS projects current growth at 10% that is down from their prediction from 2024 to 2034 increase of 15% and 2019 to 2029 of a 22% increase in employment, from 1,469,200 to 1,785,200 jobs with a median base salary of $110,000 per year. This prediction is lower than the earlier 2010 to 2020 predicted increase of 30% for software developers. Though the distinction is somewhat ambiguous, software developers engage in a wider array of aspects of application development and are generally higher skilled than programmers, making outsourcing less of a risk. Another reason for the decline for programmers is their skills are being merged with other professions, such as developers, as employers increase the requirements for a position over time (i.e. full-stack developer). This skill consolidation has led some employers to claim there is a skills shortage with regard to programming talent. However, US programmers and unions counter that some are exaggerating their case in order to obtain programmers from countries with lower wages and avoid paying for training in very specific technologies. Then there is the additional concern that recent advances in artificial intelligence and vibe coding might drastically impact the demand for future generations of Software professions even as schools are increasingly emphasizing programming as a career.