Earthquake prediction

Earthquake prediction is an operational objective within the broader framework of earthquake forecasting, specifically representing a forecast where uncertainty and error margins are sufficiently minimized to allow decision makers to implement drastic or immediate public safety measures. It is traditionally defined as the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes within stated limits. While prediction has historically been treated as distinct from earthquake forecasting (the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake hazard over long time horizons), modern operational seismology increasingly views prediction as the deterministic limit of a probabilistic forecast, where localized probability rises high enough to justify short-term public alerts or evacuations.

Prediction can be further distinguished from earthquake warning systems, which, upon detection of an earthquake, provide a real-time warning of seconds to neighboring regions that might be affected.

In the 1970s, most scientists were optimistic that a practical method for predicting earthquakes would soon be found, but by the 1990s continuing failure led many to question whether it was even possible. Demonstrably successful predictions of large earthquakes have not occurred, and the few claims of success are controversial. For example, the most famous claim of a successful prediction is that alleged for the 1975 Haicheng earthquake. A later study said that there was no valid short-term prediction. Extensive searches have reported many possible earthquake precursors, but, so far, such precursors have not been reliably identified across significant spatial and temporal scales. While part of the scientific community hold that, taking into account non-seismic precursors and given enough resources to study them extensively, prediction might be possible, most scientists are pessimistic and some maintain that earthquake prediction is inherently impossible.